Goal Rush Week Three – Special Sunday Edition

Goal Rush Week Three – Special Sunday Edition

Mjondalen v Haugesund - Norway 1 Sunday 5pm UK time
Second from bottom Mjondalen host mid table Haugesund in this Tippeligaen clash at the Isachsen Stadion. The home team who were promoted last season have struggled to keep up with their stronger rivals in the top level of Norwegian football. It was one apiece when the sides met back in June in Haugesund which was a decent away draw for the struggling Mjondalen side. Recently Haugesund have scored in their last five games and despite their lowly position the home team have scored in eleven straight games. Their last seven games has seen them score fifteen goals but only gain five points! BTTS has landed in the last nine games for the home side whilst Haugesund have scored in seven of their last eight games.  Mjondalen also played away in the NM Cupen against Rosenborg on Thursday night, which they lost 4-0, which I feel makes this game more susceptible to goals today.

My only concern is that the away side have won their last two away league fixtures to nil. This statistic does make me a little more cautious and drop the level of stakes I am looking to invest despite the game hitting my criteria and further analysis.



Current Goal Rush results
5-1 over 2.5 goals
4-2 Yes on BTTS
4 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw

Goal Distribution 2, 3, 3, 4, 5 and 5

Best of luck with your bets today and if you want to know my EPL thoughts today then please check out the podcast with Pete Nordsted and click on my column for the main Vegas man Todd Furhman

Premier League Betting Podcast: Week 2 - Pete Nordsted - Pete Nordsted 

Sports Forum - Todd's Take 

All the best

Jimmy

Watford v West Bromwich Albion

Watford v West Bromwich Albion, Vicarage Road 3pm UK time kick off

Watford host West Brom in the first home game of their season back amongst the big boys. On paper it looks an ideal opportunity for the Hornets to get their first EPL win for boss Quique Flores and the bookmakers certainly agree as they have priced them up as short as 13/10 for this fixture.

Last weekend Watford were impressive away to Everton as they gained a point in a 2-2 draw on Merseyside. Sometimes though what can be seen on paper as a good result can in fact be a missed opportunity and one that deflates a team rather than inspires them moving forward. Watford led twice in that campaign so to be pegged back and only take a point is disappointing. They will learn that in this league as a side struggling down the bottom of the table it's not every week you take the lead in a game against so called better opposition. To lead twice and not get the win is almost a cardinal sin!

On this weeks podcast with Pete Nordsted I spoke of how the manner of West Brom's Monday night loss may in fact help them, so let me explain further. If the Baggies had fought out a draw, a narrow loss or even a victory that may have shifted their players focus away from this game. West Brom were blown away by Manchester City and were lucky that the score line only read 0-3 at full time. This week the words of Tony Pulis will be listened to with far greater attention by his players as they will fear another poor showing may see considerable changes rung.

So how do we know that players will listen to the words of their manager this week? Since the beginning of the 2006-7 season when Tony Pulis took over at Stoke there have been forty nine games where a Pulis led team have started a sequence of league results with a loss by two or more goals.  They seem to have a great response as in the game directly following a two goal loss, to start a run of results, they have lost just twelve of the forty nine games. The three teams he as managed in that timespan have hardly been the worlds greatest as Stoke, Crystal Palace and West Brom are at best middle of the pack EPL sides. So that record of W22 D15 L12 shows that, however he does it, after a loss of two or more goals Pulis knows how to get a positive reaction from his sides.

With such a strong trend supporting a Pulis managed team at least avoiding defeat I am happy to back West Brom +0.25 and the braver amongst you will take the 14/5 on the away victory.

Good luck with your bets today!

All the best

Jimmy

Goal Rush Week Three

The Goal Rush Week Three

As I said in my weekly round up on Monday we have certainly not found the elusive 'Golden Egg' in this column. We will have losers and periods where our selections are not as successful as they have been of late so please be mindful of this with your staking. Having said that we are currently 4-0 this season so maybe we have found something? Only time will tell as four games is no real sample size to judge by so let's see where in the world we are off to this weekend in search of value...........

IF Brommapoj v Jankopings, Sweden Division Two 3pm UK time
The Bromma Boys from western Stockholm host table topping Jonkopings in a genuine David v Goliath top v bottom clash. Jankopings handed out a spanking when the sides met for the first time this season. However, the BB's did manage two goals in the 5-2 defeat so they will have confidence they can find the back of the league leaders' net. With the away side scoring in six straight away games and the home underdog scoring in six straight games, which you would think is rare for a team bottom of any table, goals look to be on the cards here. Give me the over 2.5 goals to land here.


New York RB v Toronto FC, MLS midnight Saturday UK time
Toronto make the relatively short journey, by MLS standards, down to the Big Apple to take on New York Red Bulls for this key game within the
Eastern Conference. The Red Bull Arena has hardly been flush with goals this season as there have been just twenty four goals in the ten games played there this season. Conversely forty nine goals have flown in during Toronto's thirteen away games and when the sides met last season both games saw four goals scored. In fact the sides have met twenty one times since June 2007 and there has been at least two goals in all but one of the games with over 2.5 goals going 12-9. With New York scoring in their last sixteen total games and Toronto matches hitting Yes on BTTS in seven straight total games I sense goals will be the order of the day. Hit that over 2.5 goals bet!

Current results
4-0 over 2.5 goals
3-1 Yes on BTTS
3 home wins, 1 away win and 0 draws
Goal Distribution 3, 4, 5 and 5

The fact there have been no draws is kind of interesting and one to monitor as the sample size grows. Logically though this does make some sense. We are looking to identify games where we expect to see three or more goals. So any successful over 2.5 goal bet has more chance of a side winning the match due to the likelihood of three or five goals being greater than that of four goals. Does that make sense?

Less of my ramblings, look out for my Saturday column which will be posted early on Saturday and enjoy tonight's Premiership game.

Weekend Review

Weekend Round Up

What a fantastic opening weekend of football we've had and although it is very early in the season there are many interesting pieces of information that we can take forward.

Premier League
Saturday - there were five evens or odds on shots and three didn't win and then we had Arsenal letting us down yesterday. Man City are also a hefty odds on shot so will they pull it back tonight or will the odds on teams go 2-5? Be careful punters!

Over 2.5 goals has gone 5-4 so far with just tonight's game to go.

There were five Prem games with goal lines set at a miserly 2.25 and they went 3-2 to the over. Interestingly the two that went under both saw just a solitary goal so although my thoughts about almost blindly backing overs did make a profit there was no safety blanket of a half loss.

Without going through each game individually there were three glaring points that stand out to me this weekend. We will not even talk about Arsenal without Alexis Sanchez starting as I intend to write an in depth column about betting Arsenal moving forward in the next few days.

Manchester United were effective and functional in their 1-0 home victory. By looking at them I'd be wary of backing over 2.5 goals in their games until we see some evidence that they are able to create numerous chances in a game. LVG appears to have them set up well but not set up to take teams apart.

Liverpool are another team who look very solid and I see them as another team where the volume of goals in their games may regress this campaign. The addition of James Milner gives them a big lift in that important central midfield area. He and Jordan Henderson will give excellent protection to their back four whilst allowing their forward players to create. Their creativity looks not as great as in recent years but with that extra defensive solidity it doesn't need to be to win games. Yesterday's performance from the Reds may become the standard this season for them.

Norwich didn't have the rub of the green in their home defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace so it'll be interesting to watch the price moves on them this week. They have opened up a best priced 5/2 to gain all three points away at Sunderland. Given the Black Cats first half horror show at Leicester last week I'm keen to look at supporting Norwich should they drift out much further.

Goal Rush
Winners in Hungary and in the USA sees us improve to 4-0 and in over 2.5 bets for the season. I am sure that we haven't find the secret to untold riches but presently we are ticking along nicely. The next column will be published on Friday morning.


Stats Pack - http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-revamped-division-2-stats-pack.html?m=1

Great week for the main bets as we pinpointed Leyton Orient as the best value team of the week.
No on BTTS at Wycombe v York also obliged as our favourite goals bet of the day.

Other successes included suggesting Portsmouth to win to nil as good value, laying Oxford at odds on at home to Crawley and keeping the 1-1 correct score on our side in the Accrington/Luton game.
Stevenage let us down by not scoring at home to Notts County and thus the Yes on BTTS not landing whilst Morecambe's slow start cost us at Hartlepool.
All in all though a very solid first weekend for the Stats Pack with more to come for this weekends set of games.

Monday Night Football
Tonight's Monday Night Football brings the first weekend of the season to a close and it may not be an easy ride for Manchester City at the Baggies. These are the sorts of games where they struggled last season and their inability to win them cost them dear. We will learn a lot about this new look City in these ninety minutes so I won't be looking to rush in and either support or oppose them at The Hawthorns tonight.

Best of luck and speak soon
Jimmy

Newcastle v Southampton

Newcastle United v Southampton, Sunday 130pm UK Time

The McLaren era begins on Tyneside this weekend as Steve McLaren takes over at the helm at Newcastle United for the 2015-16 season. I was there at Wembley that fateful night when he was dubbed the 'Wally with the Brolly' in the pouring London rain as England slipped out of the European Championship qualifying at the hands of Croatia back in 2007. It has been a long road back to the big time for the clearly talented coach and in his first game he hosts Ronald Koeman's Southampton side. 

The general feeling amongst many people I have spoken with is that the Saints will regress in Koeman's second season at St Mary's but I am not so sure. However, this is a tough opening game for Southampton so I'm genuinely surprised to see them priced up as slight favourites for this opening day trip to the north east. Much of the concern for the Saints can be attributed to them losing their last five games away from home last season. It was only their strong home form in the last third of the season that allowed them to finish in seventh position but many of those wins were achieved against the Premierships weaker teams. Newcastle also had a torrid end to the season as they picked up just four points in their last eleven games and it was only a final day 2-0 home win over West Ham that secured their EPL status for this campaign. I believe the only difference between many of those mid tier Premiership sides is the coaching and in game management and in both areas McLaren can help Newcastle improve. 

Despite me being surprised that the away team are priced up as favourites I not see any value in betting the home team until I see how they shape up under their new management. It is the goal markets that appeal to me as even though both sides struggled at the back end of last season all of both teams' last seven games saw at least two goals. Recent head to head meetings also support goals as the last six meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 4-2. I'm sure that Newcastle will look to try and play a more exciting and attractive brand of football under McLaren whilst I have some questions about Southampton defensively that I want answers to. Last summer they sold defensive rock Lovren to Liverpool and they coped very well in his absence as their strong defensive performances continued. This summer they offloaded England full back Clyne, also to Liverpool, and banked another hefty fee sent south from Merseyside. You cannot keep selling players from a successful unit and expect the performance of the group to remain as strong so I think the Saints may be more vulnerable defensively this season, especially whilst the reshaped backline gels. 

With a more expansive Newcastle team and a potentially weaker Saints back line I believe this will be an open and entertaining encounter.  I am very happy to take a slice of the over 2.25 goal line as my preferred bet in this match! 

Goal Rush Week 2

Well we got off to a great start last weekend with two wins from two in the MLS and the Virsliga. The where I hear you say!! The Virsliga is the Latvian Premier League and that is the whole purpose of this column. I'm looking to find good solid over 2.5 goal bets through structured research wherever there are in the world. Money is money whether it's won in the English Premiership, Serie A in Italy or in the Ekstraklasa in Poland! I have a specified criteria that must be met for any game to qualify for further, more deeper, analysis.
Interestingly, last weeks suggestions not only saw over 2.5 goals cash but also the Yes on BTTS land and two home wins as four and five goals were scored in the two games. We will not get it right every week but as long as you keep your stakes to comfortable levels these are always bets that can be enjoyed. Moving swiftly on to this weeks action and we visit another Eastern European country as well as returning the Land of the Free, which also seems to be the Land of the Goals!

MTK Budapest v Diosgyor - Hungary - Saturday 5pm UK Time

First this week we look to the OTP Bank Liga in Hungary where MTK Budapest host Diosgyor in the nations capital. The home team lie mid table after three games of the new season with a win, a draw and a loss from their first three games. MTK have scored in each game and the only game they kept a clean sheet was on opening day at home to Puskas. Diosgyor make the 180km journey west following two defeats and a victory from their first three games of the new season. All of their games so far this season have gone Yes on BTTS and hit the over 2.5 goals bet. Any concerns you may have about them scoring away from home are eased by the fact they scored away at table topping Ferencvaros in a 3-1 defeat. It is a small sample size this season but even at this early stage of the Hungarian season I am comfortable in favouring the over 2.5 goal line.

Colorado v Columbus - United States - Sunday 2pm UK Time

Mid table Columbus make the long journey to Colorado this weekend as they look to get back to winning ways after a very poor showing last time out in Florida when they lost 5-2 at Orlando City. Over 2.5 goals has gone 14-4 in Colombus' last eighteen MLS games and they have kept just two clean sheets on eleven road trips this campaign. The home side are struggling at the bottom end of the table but they have the third best defensive record in the MLS as they have conceded just 22 goals in 21 games this season. Recent games in the thin Coloradan air appear to be more open affairs as Yes on BTTS has cashed in each of the five games in their Commerce City home with sixteen total goals flying in. Prior to that their first six home games had seen just eleven total goals. The home team have found their shooting boots and the away team always seem to find a way to find the back of the net in their games.
　
Good luck, be sensible with your staking and live to fight another betting day!

Arsenal v Chelsea - Community Shield

The English season resumes this weekend with the gentle appetiser of the Community Shield before the real cut and thrust begins next weekend. If you think this will be a gentle run out in this disturb akin to those I remember from my childhood then think again. This game has been played at a high intensity for many a season and this year seems set to be no different. Premier League champions Chelsea play FA Cup winners Arsenal so that can mean only one thing, Arsene v Jose. 

For those who may think that this will be a gentle low scoring affair with both teams feeling their way into the new season then the stats don't back those thoughts up. The last eleven Community Shields have gone 8-3 to both over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS.  Do those historical trends in this match follow through to the individual meetings between the two sides? 

Not recently as under 2.5 goals has gone 4-1 in the last five games and Arsenal have managed just two goals in the last eight meetings of the sides.  When facing Mourinho's Chelsea it has been even harder work for Arsene Wenger. A 7-6-0 lifetime record for Jose against Arsenal makes the Blues worthy favourites as the Portuguese genius seems to have a canny knack of shutting the Gunners down.  Many teams try and adopt the Chelsea way of defending against Arsenal but few can successfully carry out that same game plan. Mourinho's men will allow minimal space in behind them and will patiently watch Arsenal pass the ball from side to side until they seize on any inaccurate pass to regain possession. 

The pre season schedules of both sides will make this a difficult game for betting purposes. Arsenal utilised their full squad last weekend when they managed to win The Emirates Cup on home soil. The Gunners looked impressive but in truth the opposition they faced was not up to much and it was concerning that ex Gooner Nicklas Bendtner caused them defensive issues. Chelsea have made the long Transatlantic flight having played Barcelona in Washington in the early hours of Wednesday morning UK time.  That game saw both Gary Cahill and Diego Costa pick up injuries that when they happened would make you think they would play no part in this meaningless game.  We do know though that Jose does love getting one over Wenger and he has confirmed that both are fit to play.  I'm not sure how true this is and given his injury history I'd be flabbergasted if we saw Costa take to the Wembley turf. 

From a betting perspective this is a game that throws up far more questions than it does answers. The trends in this unique competition suggest a carefree and open game with the potential for goals from both sides. When these two teams meet the historical trends point to Chelsea avoiding defeat and limiting Arsenal's goal scoring chances.  In view of that the only bet in this game I could consider is the 4/5 that is generally available for Chelsea to lift the trophy. I would keep your bets in other markets to fun sized stakes as risking any of your betting bankroll in this match is fraught with danger.