Saturday Column

Last weekend I was just a single goal away in the Leicester/Tottenham game from landing that completely ridiculous treble that my mate bullied me into researching. Ok, maybe not quite bullied but he did threaten to set his Mrs on me if I didn't come up with one. She is worse than a pitbull!

So how can I top that this week? Well we do have quite a few heavy favourites this weekend in the Premiership so maybe we can look at some form of First Goalscorer Lucky 15. If the whipping boys throw the towel in this weekend then this could be the easiest bet of the year. How does that sound?

Eden Hazard 5/1 for Chelsea at home to Crystal Palace
Well he hasn't quite hit the ground running this season but there were sparks last week that he is getting back to his best. He scored the only goal in this fixture last season and the arrival of Pedro should help open up even more space for the Belgian wizard.

David Silva 13/2 for Manchester City at home to Watford
I think I fancy David Silva and he is, in my opinion, by far the best player in the Premiership. With silky touches and Latin good looks he has cast a spell over me. He has the kind of skills that these numpties from Watford just won't be able to cope with.

Philippe Coutinho 11/2 for Liverpool at home to West Ham United
I think it's fair to say that Liverpool will have a lot of the ball in this game. The Hammers will look to defend their box so don't expect much space for Benteke. Instead turn to this little magic man as he scores all sorts of goals and if the box is packed he could just smash one in from twenty five yards.

Harry Kane 4/1 for Tottenham Hotspur at home to Everton
The last winning bet of this Lucky 15 will be cashed by the lad I am calling the 'New Alan Shearer'. Harry Kane relies on no one part of his game as he does everything excellently. At an early age he is almost the complete centre forward. He has started the season slowly compared to last year but he will become the complete centre forward in my eyes when he nets the opener here and sends us delirious!


A £1 winning Lucky 15 on that motley crews pays a return of £2,929.15 for all four winners with Paddy Power. However, I am sure Paddy fresh from his takeover/merger of Betfair will give you some kind of bonus should you be daft enough to pile on. Maybe a reduction in your commission charge..............yeah righto.

Be sensible as this bet is just for a bit of fun. God I hope it comes in as my mate probably won't back it as his Mrs won't let him watch the late game.


Good luck and all the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Saturday Thoughts

Goal Rush Week 5

Morning folks it's another Football Friday and you know what that means, it's the day that the column that is sweeping the world is published..........well ok maybe not the world but it seems a few of you like it.

Results so far are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 10-1
Over 2.5 goals 9-2
Eight home wins, one draw and two away wins
Goal Distribution 1,2,3,3,3,3,4,5,5,5 and 6

So which crazy part of the world are we off to this weekend in the search of goals..................


Zaglebie Lubin v Ruch Chorzow, Saturday 5pm kick off UK Time, Polish Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin welcome Ruch Chorzow to the Stadion Zaglebie this Saturday tea time with the opportunity to overtake the visitors in the league table should they win the game. The home side have had what we can call a symmetrical start to the season as they are 2-2-2 so far this campaign. Ruch lie two points ahead of their hosts as their 3-1-2 record sees them lie fifth in the table as they look to build on last seasons precarious fourteenth, of sixteen, placed finish. The home side won promotion last season following just one season in the second tier following demotion in 2013-14 as home boss Piotr Stokowiec took them back to the promised land at the first time of asking. Five of the last total six meetings of the two teams since September 2012 has seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals is 4-2 in those matches. Both sides have kept just one clean sheet so far this season and Ruch have themselves scored in every game. At an available market price of over Even money then I sense this is a good risk/reward bet given the strong trend I see here towards the over 2.5 goal bet cashing. Bettors who like the Asian lines may be able to take some cover if they can get a favourable price on any 2.25 goal lines that may be about.



Heerenveen v Zwolle, Saturday 645pm kick off UK Time, Netherlands Eredivisie

It may be early in the season but the Eredivisie has sprung into life with some excellent games so far this season. This weekend sees an interesting game for us goal lovers as eighth placed Heerenveen entertain third placed Zwolle at the Abe Lenstra Stadium. Last season the sides finished seventh and sixth respectively and both sides look to build on promising starts to the new campaign. In a division heavily dominated by the two powerhouses, PSV and Ajax, you have to concede that really only third place and below is really up for grabs. Both had good results last weekend as Zwolle beat FC Twente 2-1 at home whilst Heerenveen held PSV 1-1 on home soil. The last four total meetings of the sides in Eredivisie have seen at least three goals and each of the last three in Heerenveen have hit over 2.5 goals. Heerenveen have won all three of those matches and outscored the visitors 9-1 in the process. As the sides combined six games this season have seen 18 total goals then I see nothing here to suggest a reversal in the high scoring trends so happy to take a piece of the over 2.5 goals.


Good luck all and look out for my part tongue in cheek Saturday Column and also some possible Sunday Goal Rush action too..........


All the best
Jimmy

Weekend Review

Weekend Review

Another fantastic weekend has come and gone with many takeaways for us punters moving forward.

The EPL
My major thought this weekend is that the press don't half have to make a mountain out of a mole hill. All the talk when I woke up on Sunday morning is of Manchester United and their problems. Problems? Three clean sheets in three games and seven points out of nine. For a club who are still rebuilding that isn't a bad return in my book.  Yes they could do with some more firepower and assistance for Wayne Rooney in the attacking third of the field but a solid defensive base sometimes comes at the expense of attacking flair. If seven points from three games is a problem then I'm sure a lot of other clubs would like 'problems'. Until further notice though I'm keen to trend to the unders in their games and I just can't take them giving up more than half a goal on any handicap line. This weekend they travel to Swansea who will finish below them in the table but it is a game where United will more than likely not dominate possession as Swansea's style of play rarely allows the opposition to have more ball than they do. It will be a real test for them as they will need to be clinical with their finishing as I expect even fewer chances in front of goal for them in this game.

Chelsea grabbed a much needed win at West Brom as they scrapped their way to a 3-2 victory. That's the sort of win they needed, ugly but effective. I expect them to kick on from here and next week they welcome a buoyant Crystal Palace side. Chelsea's troubles plus Palace's good start to the campaign could lead to an inflated price for the home win. There are specific reasons why I think Chelsea could exploit Palace this upcoming weekend and I will explain more later in the week

Manchester City are in cruise mode and presently they look by far the best side in the Premiership. They are trading odds on now and my thoughts are that this early in the season that should be a silly price. However, their upcoming set of fixtures suggest that by the time they travel to Old Trafford on October 25th they could be as short as 1/2 for the title. Next weekend they host Watford and then it is Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h), Tottenham (a), Newcastle (h) and Bournemouth (h). I would never say that the title could be won by then as that is crazy talk but the fixture compilers have certainly handed them a good run of games. It may even be worth taking some of that 10/11 before tonight's game as if Arsenal do not win then they will already be five or six points behind City and desperately playing catch up.

　

Goal Rush

The Goal Rush column had mixed results at the weekend going 2-0 on Saturday and 1-1 on Sunday. Maybe I'm just expecting to win every game now as a 9-2 record ain't so bad at all is it!

Over 1.5 goals 10-1

Over 2.5 goals 9-2

Eight home wins, one draw and two away wins

Goal Distribution 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5 and 6

The column will be back Friday and Sunday morning so look out for the link when it's posted.


Stats Pack Review
Stats Pack subscribers had a decent weekend in Division Two. Notts County and Accrington obliged in the goals market with Yes on BTTS landing the favourite goal bet of the week. Luton were my tip for the best match bet of the week and after twenty minutes they were two up at Yeovil only to see the home side rally back and win 3-2.

Other highlights included:
Plymouth winning away at Northampton at 5/2, laying Cambridge at odds on against Crawley and the under 2.5 goals obliging in the Wycombe/Dagenham match where we warned punters not to back Wycombe at odds on. We were let down though by Exeter at home to York and two late goals in Bristol denying us the under 2.5 goal bet landing.

Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football sees a cracking game as Arsenal host Liverpool at The Emirates live on Sky Sports. At the current market price I do see some good value with siding with Liverpool +0.75 as I feel the away team will cause the Gunners plenty of defensive issues. Defending set pieces could be a real issue for Arsenal here as I see them vulnerable to the aerial threats posed by Benteke, Skrtel and Co. Petr Cech looked suspect at times last weekend at Crystal Palace and with better delivery from corners and wide areas in this game he will once again be put under the microscope. This new look Liverpool defence which is being given great midfield cover by Henderson and Milner should be disciplined enough to limit the home sides chances. Give me Liverpool on the handicap and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they nicked all three points!


Have a great week folks and if you have any questions about betting then please do not be shy and hit me up on my Twitter @ukbettingpro

All the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Sunday Extra

Goal Rush Week Four Sunday Extra

8-1 and the roll just keeps going! Moving on to today's games and we have an early start in Denmark and a later match in the MLS. 

Randers v Viborg - Denmark - Sunday 1230pm UK Time
Colin Todd, remember him folks, and his Randers side host Viborg at the AutoC Park this Sunday afternoon. The home side have had a solid start to the season and they are 2-1-1 going into this game. Their four games though have seen an incredible nineteen total goals as they have covered the over 2.5 goal line on their own in each of the matches. Viborg have only scored in two of their five games this season but as they've only kept one clean sheet this season they are unlikely to shut out Randers in this game! The last four league meetings of the sides have seen Yes on BTTS land so I'm
happy to risk the fact that we may need Viborg to score in the game for the over 2.5 goal bet to land. You never know though as the home side may continue that run of smashing the over themselves. Our usual price range for these Goal Rush bets tend to be between 1.7 and 1.9 so to get the opportunity to back a solid selection at over Even money cannot be ignored.


LA Galaxy v New York City, MLS Sunday 8pm UK Time
The live main MLS game on Sky Sports this weekend sees Steven Gerrard's Galaxy take on New York City at the StubHub Centre. The Galaxy were involved in mainly low scoring games early in the season as they went 12-5 to under 2.5 goals in their first seventeen games. Their last nine games though have all seen the over 2.5 goal bet cash. In six of those games LA have hit the over themselves and on home soil the Galaxy are a commanding 10-2-1. New York City played on Thursday night away in Columbus and drew two apiece whilst LA have had all week to prepare for this match. With the game being live on Sky Sports you may be able to get a much better market price as there should be lots of liquidity and the brave may hold off, hoping for no early goals, before placing their wager. 

Record so far

Over 1.5 goals 9-0

Over 2.5 goals 8-1

Seven home wins, one draw and one away win

Goal distribution 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5 and 5

Good luck with your bets today whatever you choose, the live games look very interesting matches. If this blog is not enough of me and you want to listen to me rattle on about the EPL then click the podcast link below with the legend that is Pete Nordsted.  Or click the link to my column for the main Vegas Man Todd Furhman. 

http://www.petenordsted.com/premier-league-betting-podcast-week-3/

Sports Forum - Todd's Take 

Jimmy

Soccer Saturday Nonsense Treble Bet

The Saturday EPL 10/1 Shot Column

One of my mates said this week "I tell you what you need to do pal, find me a 10/1 winner that'll make my Saturday night. Oh and can you limit it to the 3pm Premiership games as that's all the telly the Mrs will let me watch." So I looked at him and thought, can you find me any more criteria?!

Sometimes I am not sure what people expect of me.  If I could pull 10/1 bets out of a hat, at will, do you think I'd be sat writing this on this train at 530pm on a Friday evening? Of course not.  However, it did get me thinking that this task is something I should undertake as a bit of fun, as it is achievable, and what the heck I could write a column about it and bore you lot with it too!

At least the orders to stick to the 3pm kick off Premiership games will give you a bit of entertainment whilst you watch Soccer Saturday on Sky. Bearing in mind whilst all this is going on I will be getting sunburnt, as I always forget my sun cream, out in the cricket field. So, what bets have we got lined up for this clearly attainable but rarely achieved 10/1+ treble.

Let's start at the old Filbert Street which isn't even the new Filbert Street as it's the Walkers Crisps Stadium and Leicester v Tottenham Hotspur. These two sides couldn't contain each other last season as their three meetings, including one in the FA Cup, saw a total of thirteen goals scored. Leicester's two EPL games have seen nine goals and worryingly they have conceded three times to Sunderland and West Ham teams who do look anaemic in front of goal. Spurs are a carefree side though so although you can see them scoring can you really see them keeping a clean sheet? Me neither, so let's take some of the over 2.5 goals in this match.

Sunderland host Swansea at the Stadium of Light and the price of the away team is quite frankly ridiculous. The Swans have won just 16 of their total 58 EPL away games yet are giving up half a goal on the handicap to Sunderland, madness! These stats though do not factor in one important fact and that is the fact that Sunderland are garbage! I have nothing against garbage teams as their games are often the most profitable to bet in, either supporting or opposing them, but this early in the season I won't trust Sunderland to either win or lose the game. What I feel you can rely on is Swansea to dominate the battle for possession with Sunderland desperately tapping at their heels to try and win it back. The home team failed to score in eight of their nineteen home EPL games last season and scored two or times on four occasions. Logic follows then that in seven games they found the net once in a match so the 6/4 available on them to score one goal in this game is priced about right. Away from home I can't trust Swansea to keep a clean sheet but who would put any money on this shot shy home team scoring more than twice as they won't have the ball very much.

Suggesting I stick to the 3pm kick offs may have been a bad idea as for this last bet I have been scrabbling around and I was keen to put Harry Kane in as an anytime scorer. However, I bet nowhere will take that as it'll say it is a correlated bet to the over 2.5 goals bet in the same match. So we will head to Carrow Road where Norwich host Stoke with both sides looking to build on promising starts to the season. Norwich were unlucky to lose on opening day at home to Crystal Palace before that good win at Sunderland last Saturday. Stoke looked dead and buried last week at White Hart Lane as they trailed 2-0 well into the second half. The Potters fought back though to grab a point to register their only point of the season after that opening day 1-0 defeat at the hands of Liverpool. I sense both sides will see a point from this game as a decent return so I'm going to sit on the fence and suggest a draw.

Silly Saturday 3pm Treble
Sunderland to score exactly one goal @ 6/4
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Total goals over 2.5 goals @ 5/6
Norwich City v Stoke City Draw @ 9/4

£1 pays £14.90 with SkyBet


Hope he isn't planning a big night tonight relying on this lot to come in! Good luck folks as you'll probably need it.


All the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Week Four

The Goal Rush Week Four

6-1 after three weekends is a great return so far but we shall not be getting carried away just yet!

Five home wins, an away win and a draw are the game results that we have seen in these games. Is there a pattern developing here that we can take advantage of? I am not sure as only time will tell. The last eighteen months of research from myself in this topic was centred only on establishing a certain criteria to asses for goal expectations, pinpointing huge swathes of games and then monitoring the success across all matches. The extra research I am undertaking now, to avoid supplying you with an avalanche of bets weekly, seems to be increasing the success rate...........so far!

Onward we go to Saturday's two selections and there will be more for Sunday.


Rapid Wien v Grodig, Austria Division One, Saturday 3pm UK Time
Table topping Rapid Vienna, as we know them, host Grodig in the Ernst Happel Stadion as they look to extend their lead at the top of the Austrian Bundesliga. The 'Green-Whites' have started the campaign strongly with four wins and a draw from their opening five games. They have scored at least twice in each of those games and they welcome a Grodig side whose games have seen plenty of goals this season. In fact every single one of their games has seen Yes on BTTS and between them the sides' games are comfortably averaging higher than the 3.44 goals per game in this league. The market price on the over 2.5 goals for this game is a little shorter than I'd normally like to take but we are looking for winners!


Columbus v Sporting Kansas, MLS, Sunday 1230pm UK Time
Both of these teams come into this game on the back of matches full of goals just seventy two hours previously. Four goals were seen in Columbus as they drew 2-2 with New York City whilst Kansas were humiliated on home soil 5-0 by San Jose. Kansas have scored at least once in each of the last nine meetings of the sides so will travel confident they can find the back of the home sides net. The Crew are 7-4-2 at home with 47 total goals in those thirteen games and overall this season they are 18-7 to the over 2.5goals in their fixtures. Kansas are 3-3-4 on the road with 29 total goalsbeing scored in those away trips. Let's hop on the over 2.5 bandwagon in this one and with the game being broadcast live on Sky Sports there should be some good liquidity about.

Record so far
Over 1.5 goals 7-0
Over 2.5 goals 6-1
Five home wins, one draw and one away win
Goal distribution 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5 and 5


Best of luck and I will be back with more Goal Rush thoughts for Sunday!

Jimmy

Weekend Review

Weekend Review

Morning all, well what another weekend full of surprises and shocks in the roller coaster that is the football season. I admire anyone who covers all leagues in one country or the top leagues in multiple countries as I just cannot keep up with the volume of games across all leagues. Hence I concentrate on just two major leagues, EPL and Division Two, and my Goal Rush work. So what are my thoughts this week?

Manchester City were backed heavily and consistently all week with serious cash and they delivered for the big money punters. The final scoreline was a comprehensive 3-0 home win but we can look back at that unjustly disallowed goal and wonder what may have been had that Ramires goal had stood and Chelsea levelled at 1-1. City are flying whilst Chelsea are under pressure, both on and off the field, as they head to The Hawthorns this weekend where they have struggled in recent years.

"They need time to gel." If I had a pound for every time I heard that about Man Utd over the last few weeks then I'd be a rich man. Sometimes teams are just who they look and perform like. I'm not sure that this United team, given their personnel, will ever be a team that really destroys teams. They look a grinding machine that squeezes the life out of their opposition and are happy to win low scoring games. Until I see otherwise I continue to like the unders in their matches.

My preview of Southampton's opening day trip to Newcastle centred around potential defensive concerns since the departure of Clyne this summer. That defence which has now lost two key components in the last two summers has conceded five goals in their first two games. This week they travel to a Watford side who have had a bright start to the season without gaining the full rewards for their performances. A game to really watch with interest as the days of trusting Southampton to get a clean sheet appear to be in the past.


The Division Two Stats Pack had a solid week. Our main match bet lost but the best goals bet of the weekend did deliver nicely as Yeovil and Bristol Rovers comfortably went under 2.5 goals. Highlights include the Yes on BTTS landing in the 4-4 draw between Carlisle and Cambridge, Northampton beating Exeter at home and both sides finding the net in the Plymouth/Portsmouth game. Disappointments include both York and Hartlepool finding the net in their match up and my pre season fancies Luton letting a two goal home lead slip with less than ten minutes to go to stop us from cashing the home win.

We have a full programme of Division Two action this Tuesday night but there is still plenty of time to sign up for the Stats Pack by clicking the link below:

http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-revamped-division-2-stats-pack.html?m=1


The Goal Rush, thanks to a late goal in our extra Sunday Special column, moved to 6-1. We continue to monitor the trends as those seven games have seen the home team go 5-1-1 and Yes BTTS is 5-2. Goal distribution is evenly spread with 2,2,3,3,4,5 and 5 goals.

Monday Night Football tonight sees Liverpool host Bournemouth. I'm wary of making a bet here as I cannot be sure as to how the away team will approach this fixture. They may come out all guns blazing and be positive but they may adopt a cautious approach, I just don't know. With Coutinho as my Fantasy Football captain I'm hoping its the former rather than the latter but it's a game I won't be betting on.

Have a great day and speak soon
Jimmy