The season starts tomorrow and what better time than now to reveal my Divisional Winners thoughts. A few nailed on favourites interspersed with a bit of value sprinkled in for good measure:
AFC East - Buffalo Bills 13/2 William Hill
Rex Ryan has taken over the reigns in Buffalo and at last the local media have a charismatic coach they can get behind. The Bills' defence was a strong unit before the arrival of Ryan so this appointment will only make them a more formidable outfit. It was the quarterback play that held them back last season and once again that could be a factor for them as, although Tyrod Taylor has made strides, they don't appear to have true leader at that position. Running back LeSean McCoy has been brought in from Philadelphia to hopefully alleviate some of the pressure on the quarterback and all they require is serviceable play from under centre to mount a serious challenge for the divisional title. Two road games in October at Tennessee and in then London against Jacksonville looks set to shape their season.
Dangers
- obviously the Patriots are the short priced favourites but how will that defense cope with losing so many top quality players? With no wide receiver threat the whole success of their offense lies on the shoulders of Tom Brady and Gronk. The Jets are the Jets whilst the Dolphins have a huge weakness at the major coaching position, the Head Coach! This price on Buffalo looks too good to miss for me so I will snap it up and hope that the second week match up of the teams in Buffalo goes our way.
AFC North - Baltimore Ravens 13/8 SkyBet
It's hard to imagine that even in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL that a Baltimore team led by John Harbaugh will not be in the mix. They have a strong record of recruiting well through the draft and even without an abundance of high profile players they continue to mount play off challenges year on year. The loss of wide receiver Torrey Smith to the 49ers means they will have to rely even more heavily on the run game led by Justin Forsett. Quarterback Joe Flacco is up and down in terms of his levels of performance through the season but at critical moments he has a proven track record of performing.
Dangers
- Pittsburgh look a strong offensive unit but their secondary looks horrendous. The Bengals still rely on Andy Dalton and who wants to be in that position! Whilst Cleveland, well they are just Cleveland who will try and operate it seems completely without any form of offense!
AFC South - Houston Texans 9/2 Coral
Houston are in prime position to make the next step and make serious run in the play offs this season. Headcoach Bill O'Brien is very high on the play of quarterback Brian Hoyer and they don't need Hall of Fame type performances from him. Average quarterback play should see them get in the play offs as their offense will be led by star running back Arian Foster once he returns from injury. Defensively they have the phenom that is Defensive End JJ Watt leading an all round sound unit. This is such a weak division that I see Houston going 4-2 at worst against their contemporaries but more than likely 5-1. With home games against the Jets and Tampa Bay I am fairly confident that this Texans team will finish the season with a positive regular season record.
Dangers
- the only danger is Andrew Luck and the Colts but I'm not sold on their defense. If they are relying on two old guys such as Andre Johnson and Frank Gore to have monster seasons I see no value at all in their short odds on price. Give me the Texans as some value in a two horse race.
AFC West - Kansas City Chiefs 5/1 Bet Bright
Andy Reid has done an excellent job in Kansas City since he arrived two seasons ago. In that time, with limited offensive options, he has produced a competitive team capable of beating any opposition that is put in front of them. The off season addition of Jeremy Maclin should finally give them some down the field options for quarterback Alex Smith to open up. Smith is heavily criticised and much of it in my opinion is unfair. He is sneakily quick with his legs to make key first down runs and his decision making is good under pressure. Jamaal Charles is the best all purpose running back in football and despite another year on the clock he shows no signs of slowing up. With a decent defense and an intimidating home advantage at Arrowhead Stadium I see no reason why KC will not challenge for a playoff spot once more. The one issue they may have to overcome is the tough start to the season that the schedulers have set them. They open up at Houston before hosting Denver and then travelling to Green Bay. Heading into their fourth game of the season against Cincinnati they could be 0-3. That would be a difficult beginning to overcome.
Dangers
- Peyton Manning and his Broncos may have one big season left and the Chargers look improved. Ironically the stronger the division is the better it may be for KC as I see Oakland stealing the odd game here or there off of their rivals.
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles 6/4 Bet Bright
Chip Kelly is taking all of the personnel decisions, all of the coaching decisions and probably even organising the cleaning rota at Lincoln Financial Field. Is he trying to do too much that will exhaust him come the business end of the season? The Eagles have bolstered their offense up over the summer with DeMarco Murray coming in from Dallas and even Tim Tebow has been in the building! The signing of Ryan Matthews from San Diego should see this high powered offense have the best running game in the league. As always though with a Chip Kelly team the defense is placed under huge pressure as the quick tempo Eagles offense leaves very little time for defensive rest.
Dangers
- if the Cowboys Offensive Line holds up then they could be strong contenders for the division as their offense will remain potent even with the loss of Murray. The Giants have huge play ability but their defense does not look anywhere near good enough to push for the divisional crown. Washington are an absolute train wreck and I would be surprised if they offered any resistance to anybody in the NFC East.
NFC North - Green Bay Packers 4/9 Paddy Power
This was to be the easiest write up of the pre season. A well coached side with the best quarterback in the game, if not ever! Rodgers makes everybody around him better and with that receiving corps of Cobb and Nelson staying for another season the future looked bright for the Cheeseheads. However, the pre season injury to Nelson makes the future a little less certain. In his absence though I expect a break out second season from receiver Davante Adams to further compliment the physicality of running back Eddy Lacy. Collectively their defense is not the greatest but they do have playmakers on that side of the ball who can change the game and make a real difference in the big games.
Dangers
- Minnesota and Detroit could both make challenges towards the title and even though Chicago have little quality they have the best coach in the league who could be the difference in the odd game.
NFC South - Atlanta Falcons 9/4 Bet Bright
Last season was a poor year for the Falcons and in some ways I'm not overly sure what they have done in the off season to warrant the optimism that surrounds Georgia. A six win season last year yet they are projected to win 8.5 this year? Dan Quinn comes in for his first year as a headcoach after a very successful time as Defensive Co-Ordinator up in Seattle. You have to wonder how much of that success in Seattle was down to Quinn and how much was to do with the quality of players he had at his disposal. Quarterback Matt Ryan seems to be up and down from year to year but to be fair to him that normally coincides with the fitness of his star players. If wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White stay fit for the full season there is no reason why they cannot push back towards the play off race. Especially if Quinn can help shore up what has in recent seasons been a very porous defense.
Dangers
- This could be another season where 8-8 wins the division. So with the injury to Kelvin Benjamin in Carolina seriously hampering their chances, New Orleans looking weaker as Brees ages and Tampa Bay in full rebuilding process I am happy to stick with the Falcons at this market price.
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks 4/11 Bet Bright
The signing of tight end Jimmy Graham has been much heralded across the league as a coup for Seattle. However I am a little unsure about this move as I'm concerned this may lead them to moving away from their ground and pound style offense. Graham is obviously a great red zone target but I feel the ball should still be handed off to Marshawn Lynch in those key moment. Seattle are almost guaranteed to be at least 7-1 on home soil given their incredible home advantage so this win total looks a bit low to me. Many believe this division will be incredibly strong this season but I am not convinced and I think the Seahawks may end up winning the title quite comfortably. The major concern for Seattle is their very tough out of division road schedule which sees them travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay and Minnesota. A 3-2 record would be a great return from those games and if they achieve that I see them professing as divisional champions.
Dangers
- Arizona could really make the leap and push Seattle hard but I just sense that Seattle have the course and distance knowledge over their rivals from the desert. St Louis are over-hyped in my opinion and the 49ers look to be a season away under their new headcoach.
So there we go, stick them in an Accumulator and use the slip as toilet paper!
I will be back at the weekend with my thoughts for the first weekend, hope you are all as excited as I am.
Best of luck
Jimmy
