NFL Week Two

Texans @ Panthers -3  It's a brave man who lays points with this pretty tepid looking Panthers offense against any side half capable. I lean heavily towards the Texans especially if the Panthers' defensive leader Luke Keuchly is ruled out of this game.
Buccaneers @ Saints -10  Having watched Drew Brees on the road you'd not want to be laying this many points. The Buccs are that bad though and as Lovie Smith continues to arrange his cast of failed Chicago Bears defensive players the future doesn't look bright. One to swerve for me!
49ers @ Steelers -6  This could be a very dangerous game for the well fancied Steelers. The 49ers will be looking to move and role out Colin Kaerpernick at every opportunity and I am not sure this weak Steelers defensive can cope. I like San Fran on this line and to be honest the Money Line bet on them appeals to me! My only concern is that this is a short week for the 49ers following that MNF win.
Lions @ Vikings -3  There has been some money on the Lions this week but is that more to do with an over reaction against Minnesota? The sexy pick for the summer were blasted on the west coast on Monday night.
Patriots @ Bills +1  This is my favourite game of the day……to watch! The Pats are 26-3 of late against the Bills but I sense that Buffalo and Rex Ryan have some tricks up their sleeves for this one. A game to watch and enjoy but even though I lean to the Bills that Belichick/Brady record against them puts me off betting in this game.
Cardinals @ Bears +2 John Fox showed last week that he will use Matt Forte in a more traditional way on the ground this season and the Cardinals are a team who grind the opposition down. Loving the under 46.5 points in this one!
Titans @ Browns +1.5   Well I loved the Brownies in this one if Josh McCown plays as under him they moved the ball effectively last week in New York. However, it is another dose of Manziel on offer for us today. Mariota was up against Tampa Bay and I want to see him do it on the road in a hostile environment against a decent defense. Browns tentatively for me.
Chargers @ Bengals -3.5  West coast team headed east coast for an early start but I think I stood in Caesars Palace a couple of years ago and watched the Chargers in the same time slot hand a play off loss to their hosts. At first glance I think this line should be set at 5 but then I remember Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton are involved for the Bengals...............pass!
Rams @ Washington +3  Another game where I really like the unders. Both teams have far stronger defenses than their offensives that will be on show. This will be a tough hard fought and low scoring game so give me the unders on the point line of 42 as my favourite points bet of the week.
Falcons @ Giants -2.5  I can't take this GMen defense to stop the Falcons offense this Sunday. The Falcons' D under new head coach Dan Quinn look stouter and they surely must be able to get one more stop than New York can.
Ravens @ Raiders +6  Laying six points for this impotent looking Ravens side is a risk but Oakland looked so poor last Sunday. This is a trap that I am not going to fall into, passing this game completely!
Dolphins @ Jaguars +6  As per the above!
Cowboys @ Eagles -5  Last week the Eagles' defense certainly looked like it will be a formidable unit this season with several big plays driving the Falcons back behind the line of scrimmage. This running back by committee approach of the Cowboys may struggle and if they get behind the down and distance without Dez Bryant to call on they will struggle.  Eagles for me but I am not sure this will go over the point total of 55.
Seahawks @ Packers -3.5 Another week without Kam Chancellor means I cannot take the Hawks here so I lean towards the home team in the big Sunday Night Football.

Jets @ Colts -7  This line opened at Colts -10 so what we saw last weekend has shifted this line three points. The Jets will look to ground and pound, shorten the game and keep it tight. This line looks set around spot on so I will keep away from that and just go to the over 46.5 points.

Goal Rush Friday

Goal Rush

Friday


Morning all and I have to firstly apologise to you all. It's been a very hectic week this week so the amount of games I have been able to analyse closely for this Saturday has been limited. The matches I have looked at though have obviously received my full attention but as such there are just two selections for this Saturday.

So far the stats for the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 17-2
Over 2.5 goals 14-5
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6and 6
BTTS 14-5 to the Yes
12 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins


Mlada Boleslav v Teplice, Czech Republic, 615pm kick off UK Time
BTTS has cashed four straight times when these meet with a total of fourteen goals in those four matches. The twelve games the sides have played so far this season has seen a total of forty seven goals. At this price I sense the over 2.5 goal price of a shade under evens is incredible value. As I am no expert in this league though I cannot say it's a maximum bet but at first glance it looks the proverbial dogs b's.


Colchester v Gillingham, 3pm kick off UK Time
The last four total meetings of the sides gone over with BTTS 3-1. Overs are 6-1 in Colchester games this season and over 3.5 goals are 5-2. Despite overs only going 1-2 in Gillingham away games this campaign each match has seen at least two goals. In fact even though they are placed nineteenth in the table Colchester have scored more goals than third placed Burton! With the propensity for this Colchester side to see goals go in at both ends this should be an exciting game.


Depending on workloads I plan to be back on Sunday with some more thoughts but until then, be lucky everybody!

Jimmy

NFL Weekend Review

Weekend NFL Review

Over my years of watching the NFL if I have learnt one thing then I have learnt not to over react to what I see the very first weekend of the year. There were some really great games on show and despite not wanting to over react there were many takeaways from the Sunday offerings.

Each week the aim of this column is to give my thoughts on three of the games from the weekend where we can look to profit moving forward.

The main game on Sky saw the Bears welcome the Packers to Soldier Field and the Cheeseheads were able to win and cover against their hosts. This though was not like the two defeats the Packers handed to the Bears last season as this Chicago team under coach Fox looks set to battle and scrap. The more traditional usage of Matt Forte via the run game, as opposed to the short screens of last year, should keep them in games and ensure the clock keeps running. At first glance the under would appeal to me greatly this weekend when they host Arizona.

Marcus Mariota exploded into life as he became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw four TD passes in the first half of his NFL debut. This week he travels to Cleveland to take on what at first glance looks a hapless Browns team who were spanked 31-10 in New York. Having watched the game back though Cleveland matched the Jets for long periods and the 'Dog Pound' will be noisy for this first home game of the season. Yes Mariota won in Tampa but travelling to a more traditional hot bed of football in Ohio and against a far better defence will be a much stiffer test for him. The public love will all be for the rookie and against Cleveland. There could be some value with the home dog.

Knowing how to win games is the most important trait any NFL Headcoach can have. In some ways it sounds ridiculous when you try and articulate that to people as it sounds so bleeding obvious. However, some coaches get teams in good positions and then struggle to get them over the finishing line. You could never accuse Arizona Cardinals Headcoach Bruce Arians of not knowing how to win games. Last season he masterminded an 11-5 record in the toughest division in football basically without a quarterback for the last half of the season! With Carson Palmer now back from injury they are in a good place moving forward. I will caveat all of this though with the fact that knowing how to win games is different to helping you win bets if you have to lay points. I will be very cautious of suggesting laying more than a field goal with them as the saying goes in the NFL "just win baby". Yes they won by twelve at the weekend but I am not sure this team will destroy inferior opponents.

I went 3-2 with my 'just for fun' Supercontest picks whilst there are 64 of real contestants who went 5-0!


Hope some of this is of some use to you and feel free to hit me up @ukbettingpro


All the best
Jimmy

Weekend Football Review

Weekend Football Review
The major talking point was Chelsea losing once more. For bettors they have been an absolute nightmare so far this season as they have won just one of their first five games. Even that victory away to West Brom was a hard earned 3-2 victory which only resulted in a push for any handicap bettors who supported them.

The big game of the weekend at Old Trafford exploded into life and rewarded us over 2.25 goal backers. Liverpool seem to be a team that cannot get out of their own way at present. They look very neat and tidy but unless they can win a game 1-0 they look destined to struggle to put teams away on a regular basis. The long anticipated return of Daniel Sturridge can not come a day too soon for the Anfield faithful.

A big smile was wiped off of my face at around 545pm yesterday as once again Leicester proved me incorrect. Pre season I liked them for relegation at 4/1 and for a bottom half finish at 2/7 and maybe it's too early to write the latter off the former does not look value now as they sit second in the league!

Early Season Trends

Manchester City have won their first five games to nil but none of the wins have seen them score four times

Arsenal and Tottenham, two traditionally high scoring teams are both 4-1 to the under 2.5 goals

Chelsea are a historically tight team under Jose but they are 5-0 to the over 2.5 goals

Watford have seen just one total goal scored in their three home games so far this season

Leicester home games have seen thirteen total goals, 3-0 to the over 2.5 goals

Stats Packs subscribers had a very up and down weekend as once again our Main Bets lost as ended the week roughly 50:50. The margins between the stated best bets and the rest of the selections in this league is always so marginal which is why I always suggest a spread of bets throughout the division. Long term investors are still well ahead though and over the course of a season such frustrating runs do occur.

Goal Rush supporters licked their lips at the prospect of three bets on Saturday afternoon. All three wagers cashed winning tickets as we progressed to 14-5 for the season. There were about 20 matches across Europe that hit my criteria for further research. To narrow it down to three winning selections is showing either good fortune or good further analysis is being undertaken. Once again I think it is far too early to tell which it is but I'd far rather be 14-5 than 5-14!

We have a Monday Night Football tonight with West Ham hosting Newcastle at Upton Park.  Under 2.5 goals has gone 5-1 over the last six meetings and it was two home wins to nil when the sides met last term. Both sides are fairly middle of the road clubs who do not travel overly well. West Ham have burnt bettors already this season on this -0.25 line at home so I am keeping away. Give me the under 2.5 goals as my favoured bet here.

NFL Weekend Review will come tomorrow and lots to talk about there!

All the best and good luck with your bets

Jimmy

NFL Sunday Week One

NFL Week One

Yes the season started on Thursday evening when the Patriots beat the Steelers 28-21 but today is the day that all NFL fans circle in their calendar, opening Sunday!

As always there looks to be some good opportunities on opening day but you know this is one of the most unpredictable sports there can be. So always tread with caution and ensure you have some bankroll left for next week.

Packers @ Bears +7  – to lay seven points on the road away to a divisional opponent is big. Especially when you have lost your number one wide receiver through injury and there are injury concerns on your number two wide receiver. However, the Packers are the only team you can consider backing in this game. I expect a big game for Lacy on the ground and Adams through the air for the Packers. Chicago need to drag out the game, win the time of possession battle and run the ball. I can’t see them doing it enough though to keep it close.

Chiefs @ Texans Pk – this is a real difficult game to call as the line suggests. I like Kansas City to challenge for their divisional crown this season but I just have a feeling that the Texans will do just enough in this one. Not a strong suggestion though.

Browns @ Jets -3.5  - Earlier in the week I really like the under 40 points and it has since been bet down to 39.5 points. I will still take a healthy chunk of that as I am not sure how I see the Browns moving the ball and 17 points may be enough for the Jets to take this game. Under 39.5 points is my favoured points bet of the week.

Colts @ Bills +3  – Tyrod Taylor v Andrew Luck, is it a contest? That’s why football is a team game and I do think that Taylor’s mobility will cause this Colts defense some issues. Add in the threat of McCoy and Rex Ryan will have some trickery in mind to keep the Colts off the field. I am going to call this one and say the Bills get this done Straight Up.

Dolphins @ Washington +3.5  – not sure what angle you can take to side with the home dog here, it’s the Dolphins or pass.

Panthers @ Jaguars +3  – The Jags look set to be improved this season and I have deep concerns about the Panthers offense. If you can get three points on a home dog against a side who may struggle to move the ball then take them all day!

Seahawks @ Rams +4  – as per the above, how are the Rams going to move the ball? Not sure I can lay the four points but if you’re doing a Straight Up accumulator then I can trust them enough to put them in there.

Saints @ Cardinals -2.5  – my favourite bet of the weekend. I am all over the Cardinals in this one. A strong defense should slow down the Saints offense and this New Orleans defense looks set to struggle once more. Cardinals ATS is my best bet of the week.

Lions @ Chargers -3 – I lean towards the Chargers here but with no real conviction. I sense good things could happen in San Diego but want to see them first before I put my hard earned cash on the line with them. Detroit, well who knows which Lions team will travel to the west coast?

Titans @ Buccaneers -3 – the battle of the Number One and Two draft picks. Even with the potential for Mike Evans to be out for the Buccs I just think they will be able to move the ball a bit better than Tennessee. Give me the Buccs to squeak out a low scoring game.

Bengals @ Raiders +3 – Andy Dalton travelling west giving up points……rather you than me backing that one! Oakland should improve this season and I will be very interested to see how DerekCarr links with new wide receiver Amari Cooper. I want to back the Raiders here receiving points but I just can’t do it…..!

Ravens @ Broncos -5 – the Broncos defense could be the nit that carries them to glory this season rather than the ageing Peyton Manning.  There could be value with the road dog here receiving five points as this could be a much lower scoring game than the points line of 48.5 suggests. Give me some of the under.

Giants @ Cowboys -6 - the Giants look in a state of disarray to me so even though this is a divisional opponent and they know Dallas so well I just cannot consider backing them plus six points. In fact I think I can just about trust the Cowboys, even at this line, as I sense their offensive line will push the GMen around all night. Cowboys to win by double digits.

Eagles @ Falcons +3 – the Eagles look set for another decent season but I am not sure they should be so strongly favoured for this game. Perhaps the oddsmakers believe the artificial environment within the dome in Georgia will help their timing based offense even more. The points line is set at 56 and even at that line I lean towards the over.

Vikings @ 49ers +2.5 – a few months ago this line opened San Fran -3.5 so that is a full six points shift. I think the value has gone but am not rushing to back the 49ers given the issues they have experienced since the end of last season.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the first weekend, it’s going to be great!

All the best

Jimmy

Manchester United v Liverpool

Manchester United v Liverpool – Live on Sky Sports 530pm UK Time 

The two biggest rivals in English football meet at Old Trafford for an early evening clash of the titans live on Sky Sports. For teams who currently lie 5^th and 7^th in the table there is a lot of doom and gloom surrounding both camps as we head into this game.  

Signing a player for £36m seems to have only depressed United fans as they seem to believe they have been ripped off over the transfer fee and shown their hierarchy up as being naïve and desperate. The pressure has already been taken off of Anthony Martial though as Louis van Gaal has publicly stated that Martial has been purchased for his successor.  Liverpool come into this game on the back of that home defeat at the hands of West Ham which was the Hammers’ first win at Anfield since 1963. It was not necessarily the result but the manner of the humiliating 3-0 loss that has caused such anger towards Brendan Rodgers and they need to bounce back quickly.

I lean slightly towards the home team on the match market but I do sense there could be a bit of value on the goal line. This game is always played in a red hot atmosphere at whatever time of day it is played but a 530pm kick off on a Saturday should lead to a loud and ‘well oiled’ crowd getting into the action. The goal line is set at just 2.25 but the last fifteen EPL meetings of the sides have seen the over 2.5 goals hit at a rate of 12-3 with two half losses and just one full loss. “They are different teams this season” I hear you cry and it is fair to say that both sides do not look to have the potency of their predecessors.  It is also fair to say that we know how both teams will set up and that both sides have trended towards the under this season as both are 3-1 to the under 2.5 goals. Add to that the fact that Philip Coutinho is suspended for Liverpool and that Wayne Rooney has scored only five goals in his twenty two games against Liverpool then you can see why the oddsmakers have the line set at just 2.25 goals. 

This is a massive derby game and often even the best willed tactical intentions go out of the window once the whistle blows. For a meeting of two teams in the higher echelons of the Premiership there will be a relatively large contingent of English players on show. These players are even more likely to get swept away with the emotion of this fixture as opposed to the more tactical approach displayed their continental counterparts. With that quarter goal built in as a little bit of protection should the game fall on two goals I am happy to take a small bit of the over 2.25 goals in what should be a cracker of a game to start your Saturday night. 

Selection

Back over 2.25 goals

Las Vegas Supercontest

NFL Supercontest Week One

　

Sports bettings equivalent of the World Series of Poker begins this weekend as the Supercontest kicks off in Las Vegas. 

The rules are simple. Pay the $1,500 entrance fee, pick five teams to win against the spread and whoever gets the most correct come the end of the season wins an absolute fortune! 

Lines are set at 5pm Las Vegas time every Wednesday and do not move. Your entries must be in by 11am Vegas time Saturday.  For the full information on the Contest have a look via clicking the below link:

https://www.westgatedestinations.com/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest

　

　

How do you think you'd do? Well have a go as below are your lines for Week 1 and feel free to tweet them to me @ukbettingpro

Steelers @ Patriots -7
Chiefs @ Texans -1
Dolphins @ Washington +3.5
Colts @ Bills +2.5
Seahawks @ Rams +4
Browns @ Jets -3.5
Panthers @ Jaguars +3
Packers @ Bears -7
Saints @ Cardinals -2.5
Lions @ Chargers -3
Ravens @ Broncos -4.5
Bengals @ Raiders +3
Titans @ Buccaneers -3
Giants @ Cowboys -6.5
Eagles @ Falcons +3
Vikings @ 49ers +2.5 

　

　

I love the contest so much that I moved to Vegas for six months to take part in the competition and even wrote a book about it!

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00JDOMF2U?ie=UTF8&at=aw-iphone-pc-uk-21&force-full-site=1&ref_=aw_bottom_links

　

Not entering officially this year but always do it for fun myself and adhere to the rules. I hope, no I EXPECT, to go over .500 with my picks this year so let's see how it goes.

I will be back with my Week One NFL thoughts at the weekend but until then good luck with all your bets.

　

　

All the best

Jimmy