NFL Week 15

NFL Week 15

Just two proper weeks of the regular season remain, as you can't really count the erratic last week of the campaign, and I'm getting a bit ready eyes. Nothing great lasts forever and we have some cracking games ahead of us.


Bills @ Washington +2.5
We know one thing and one thing only going into this matchup. This will be a very physical game. Apart from that who really knows what we can predict about what will happen in DC tonight. I tentatively lean to the under forty four points as this is a big game for Washington's play off hopes and for the job security of Rex Ryan. I expect it to be played in a defensive manner as I'm not convinced either side is concerned about the other sides offensive talent. This game opened with Buffalo a small favourite and they have been bet up to just under a field goal favourite but I will leave the match market alone.


Falcons @ Jaguars -3
I'm riding this Jags train again this week for the same reason I sided with them last week against Indianapolis. I think they will simply find a way to outscore their opponents. Atlanta look a train wreck at present and their season has burst into flames. As I'm not convinced Atalanta will contribute greatly to the scoring I can't even take the over forty nine points.


Bears @ Vikings -5.5
Would you want to lay five and a half points with this Minnesota team? They have won games this season but they've done it mechanically and with minimal flair. The Bears hurt us last week but receiving this amount of points I will take them here to keep fighting. My only concern is that they may start to shut down some of their banged up stars, such as Pernell McPhee, ahead of next season. The Vikings are playing nervous though and they will just a victory no matter how small of a margin it's gained by.


Titans @ Patriots -14
This opened -12.5 but was soon bet up to the full two touchdown line as bettors saw some value even on a double digit favourite. It's a lot of points and we are nearing the business end of the season. We know the Pats will take away the Titans' main weapon which is unfortunate for them as they only have one! I'm sure the gameplan for coping wth Mariota will limit his effectiveness and even at this high number it is New England or pass for me.


Chiefs @ Ravens +6.5
John Harbaugh is a very good football coach and I'm tempted to back the home dog blindly here in this spot. Yes they were blown out at home by the Seahawks last week but did you see how Russell Wilson played? That's a level of play that Alex Smith can only dream of. Will the Ravens be looking ahead to next weeks game against their arch rivals Pittsburgh? I will tentatively take this banged up Ravens side to show up at home plus but I'm just happy I bet this game on Friday when I was able to take Baltimore +7.5


Texans @ Colts -2
Who knows what's going on here. All I do know is that the Colts Look very banged up offensively and I will side with the Texans defense to get the job done.


Panthers @ Giants +4
Another big home dog here with a proven head coach in charge. Big Blue are still in the Divisional Championship race after that win in Miami. Carolina have clinched and at some point they will start resting their banged up stars and today we do not see Jonathan Stewart suit up. I lean to New York as I'm not sure how much this undefeated season means to Carolina, it should mean a lot!


Packers @ Raiders +3.5
Did you see Oakland limp to victory last Sunday in Denver? It was a great win but on paper and statistically there was nothing for the Raiders to write home about. Aaron Rodgers is finding a way to get it done even with this limited receiving corps. Packers to keep on rolling in the Californian sunshine!


Browns @ Seahawks -14.5
Johnny Football heads up to the Pacific Northwest as he auditions for a starting role for next season. Their coach is auditioning too but the Seahawks are on fire. The loss of Thomas Rawls will further allow Russell Wilson to let the handbrake off the car in this game. I sense Manziel will play well but I take the Hawks to win and even cover this big line.


Dolphins @ Chargers -1.5
I won't watch this game. I won't bet on this game. Horrible game to call. Next!


Broncos @ Steelers -6.5
Can we have Peyton Manning back? Brock Osweiler had some early success for Denver until it was established that Manning even at 81 years of age, or whatever he is, has a better arm than the younger man. Watch the Pittsburgh press up and jam at the line and swarm the young QB. I don't see Pittsburgh slipping up here but against an elite defense like Denver has six and a half points is too much for me to lay.


Bengals @ 49ers +6
Bet from -3.5 up to this level of -6 and I'm not sure why. San Fran have played rough and tough at home all season so why would this change now? It's AJ x 2 now for Cincinnati following the injury to Andy Dalton. Is it about to fall apart for the team from Ohio? 49ers straight up for me.


Cardinals @ Eagles +3.5
If Philly keep giving the Eagles the ball quickly then this Arizona team could run up 40 points with their explosive offense! I think the Eagles will play well and their underrated defense continues to work miracles given the pressure they are put under. I will take a small piece of the unders here but you may wish to wait until nearer kick off as I'm sure this will get bet up from its current fifty and a half point level.

Lions @ Saints -3
See my notes for San Diego against Miami for this one. Two teams with nothing to play for usually means points in my book. Throw in Stafford v Brees and we could see this over fifty one point line cash by the end of the third quarter!


Season long

Tennessee Titans UNDER 5.5 currently 3-10 NEARLY THERE.......
New Orleans Saints UNDER 8.5 currently 5-8 LOVELY JUBBLY
Washington Redskins UNDER 6.5 currently 6-7 FINGERNAIL BITING TIME
Arizona Cardinals OVER 8.5 currently 11-2 EASIEST MONEY WE EVER MADE
St Louis Rams UNDER 7.5 currently 5-8 SURELY MR 8-8 WON'T KILL US!

So far we have two winner winner chicken dinners, two looking very good and one in Washington hanging by a thread lol.


#SuperContest Picks Week 15
49ers +4.5
Bears +5.5
Packers -3
Seahawks -14.5
Texans +2


I admire anybody who is still in the running of the official SuperContest as this stage of the season sees some horrid games with tricky pricings!


Good luck with your bets today and enjoy the games!

Jimmy

Goal Rush pre Xmas to hopefully fill your stockings!

Goal Rush pre Christmas Edition

The winter break is kicking in now in a few countries across Europe and that is dramatically reducing the amount of games that we can assess on a weekly basis. However, there were no shortage of candidates straining at the leash to make this weekends final four, crikey I sound like Big Simon on the XFactor!

Over 0.5 goals 75-1
Over 1.5 goals 66-10
Over 2.5 goals 49-27
Over 3.5 goals 28-48
Yes on BTTS 45-31
Home wins 38 Draws 11 Away wins 27

This weekend we have three games on Saturday and a game this Friday evening. Three of the matches are priced around that 1.7 mark but the other game is a whopping price. I tried in vain to not select the game because as the price suggests it is less likely to happen than the other results. However, the historical and situational trends were so incredibly strong that at the current market price we cannot ignore it!

So where Mr Ukbettingpro I hear you ask are we off first on Friday evening........


Schalke v Hoffenheim @ 7/10 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time

The German Bundesliga is one of the highest scoring leagues in Europe averaging 2.85 goals per game so far this season. There has always been goals when these two sides meet with over 2.5 goals going 7-1 in the last eight Bundesliga meetings of the teams. In fact the over 2.5 goals is on a 6-0 run and I think it's set to continue here. Lowly Hoffenheim are a poor 0-2-6 when playing top half opposition but they do score games in this spot. The nine goals they have amassed in the spot has ensured a 6-2 Yes on BTTS record and given the fact we are confident that Schalke will score at least once, more than likely twice, I see this as getting our weekend off to the perfect start.


Everton v Leicester @ 7/10 English Premiership, 3pm UK Kick Off Time

If I'd have been asked off of the top of my head which game across all of the European top flight this weekend would be a candidate for the Goal Rush then I'd have said this game. Both teams play an open and attractive style and I'm not sure either backline can be trusted to keep a clean sheet. This game will be played at a frenetic breakneck speed and I think it will be the most attractive game of the weekend. Over 2.5 goals is a combined 21-11 this season for the teams and I see that only extending to 23-11 when the final whistle is blown come late Saturday afternoon.


Bastia v Reims @ 6/4 French Ligue 1, 7pm UK Kick Off Time

This is game with the big juicy price that I alluded to in our intro. At face value, for a couple of reasons, this would seem a strange selection. The French top flight is one of the lower scoring leagues across Western Europe as games are averaging just 2.41 goals per game so far this season. Drilling down further into the teams' season long records also gives the reasons why this is a juicy price. Both teams are 10-8 to the under 2.5 goals this season, so why do we like it so much? At face value stats can often be misleading as yes overall those stats point to unders being a justified favourite. However, Bastia are 6-3 to over 2.5 goals on home soil with Reims being 5-3 to over 2.5 goals on their travels in the 2015-16 campaign. When comparing recent head to results the trends towards goals is also very strong with over 2.5 goals going 5-1 in the last six meetings of the teams with each of those six games seeing at least two goals. Given all of those factors I see the current market price as well worth the risk involved so will go with the over 2.5 goals.


Oud Heverlee v Mechelen @ 8/11 Belgian Pro League, 730pm UK Kick Off Time

The seemingly reliable Belgian Pro League gives us our final Goal Rush game this Saturday. The home side are struggling as they are already six points adrift of safety in second to bottom place in the league table. Mechelen won the first meeting of the teams 2-1 back in August and historically there have been goals when these sides. Over 2.5 goals has gone 6-1 in the seven meetings of the sides since August 2011 and situationally this season the trends point to goals. Both of these teams reside in the bottom half of the table and when they take on fellow bottom half foes both teams see an average of over three goals in the spot. Overs people and let's hope those goal friendly Belgians are as reliable as usual!


Hopefully we have at least a 3-1 weekend and who knows, dare we dream of a 4-0 performance?

The Goal Rush column is a very time consuming task for me to undertake thoroughly (as I would not do it any other way) and the festive season is here. I cannot promise that there will be selections posted over the next two weeks as I am unsure of my own and my family movements in that time. I may be here but I may not be so I would though like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your tremendous support and encouragement in this inaugural season. I hope you have managed to make some decent returns and as we move forward together hopefully further study and refinements can make this even more profitable.

All the best and I will be back on Sunday with NFL thoughts but if you're not into the gridiron sport I would like to sh you all a very Merry Christmas and a safe and peaceful New Year.

Jimmy

NFL Sunday Week 14

NFL Week 14

Just four weeks of the regular season left folks. There are many games I like this week so will be having more bets than usual, just spreading the cash thinner across all of them. Good luck and next week we shall have a full round up of the season long divisional bets and under/over bets.


Washington @ Bears -3.5
Jay Gruden v John Fox and Kirk Cousins v Jay Cutler. I like the Bears in both of those match ups but then again I liked them in match ups over the 49ers last Sunday. The difference though is the number as this week they need to cover only three and half and not seven points. Washington on the road is a different proposition than them on home field so give me the Bears to bounce back in this spot. I'd consider taking them straight up though now this line has shifted slightly as this could be decided just by a field goal.


Falcons @ Panthers -8.5
It's happening people, the Carolina Panthers are going 16-0. Will the Falcons only get beaten by a touchdown or less here is the question.  Dan Quinn has tried to make this Atlanta team more physical but here they face a battle hardened and history squalling chasing Panthers. Matt Ryan on the road is turning to Drew Brees on the road. Panthers or pass for me and I'm really tempted to take Carolina even giving up a point and a half over a touchdown.


Saints @ Buccaneers -4.5
Drew Brees will have to throw it around here as the Saints won't run the ball much against this Tampa Bay defense. Brees should have success though as the Buccs will sit off in their cover two defense for much of the game. I can't believe I am going to say this but even with a point line of 50.5 I will take some of the over.


Chargers @ Chiefs -10.5
This is a big number for a divisional game but despite their injuries the Chiefs continue to plug and play running backs. San Diego look a bit of a shambles and going into Arrowhead this Sunday with KC on a play off push it's unlikely to get any better for the Chargers. The Chiefs have been playing some tough defense of late so give me the home team to get the job done and then bleed the clock through their ground game. Under 45 points for me.


Lions @ Rams -3
This line opened a Pk and has been bet all the way to Detroit minus three. That said you may only need seven points from the Lions to cover this line! Teams are stacking up on Todd Gurley and forcing St Louis to beat them through the air. Foles/Keenum/InsertWhoever just cannot get it done. Detroit are on ten days rest after that heartbreaking loss against the Packers and I see them getting the job done here on the road. I also really like the Lions/Under 41 play.


Bills @ Eagles PK
There was some early money for the road team here as the line was bet down from Philly -2 to Buffalo -1 and I'm not sure why before shifting back to a Pk. This Eagles defense is not the worst IMHO and I am pretty sure they will be able to confine Tyrod Taylor to the pocket. There is the revenge factor here for LeSean McCoy after he was traded to Buffalo in the off season so I expect him to go big. Rex Ryan loves these revenge angles so any bets on McCoy to have success (yards and touchdowns) really appeal to me. The uncertainty over Chip Kelly and he fact that many of his Eagles may look longingly over the sidelines to the smiling McCoy make me stay away here.


Patriots @ Texans +3.5
Tom Brady is running out of people to throw to and at some point New England will shut down all of their talented players ahead of their play off run. Houston need this game but they won't move the ball on the ground so it'll all be on Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins. Bill Belichick knows Hoyer so well though from his time as Brady's back up so the Houston QB may not have the greatest day. Gronk has travelled but even if he does play is he just in there as a decoy and/or to block JJ Watt? I will take that extra half point with the home dog as I'm happy for Houston to lose by a field goal and still cash in a game that they are more than capable of winning straight up. Under 45.5 points really appeals here to me.


Colts @ Jaguars -2
A banged up Matt Hasselbeck may not throw many interceptions but I don't think he can keep up with the Jaguars' offense. If Hasselbeck does not make it then we may see the legendary 'Clipboard Jesus' Charlie Whitehurst. Jaguars for me as I'm pretty sure Blake Bortles and co will find a way to outscore the Colts.


Steelers @ Bengals -2.5
By traditional Vegas bookmaking standards this line means that Pittsburgh are the better team on a neutral field. Their records suggest otherwise but this is the Steelers time of year and they do match up well against Cincinnati. However the Bengals have already won in Pittsburgh this season. There has been an incredible amount of confidence oozing out of the Pittsburgh locker room of late. In fact it's been sheer cockiness for a team that aren't as of yet even in a play off berth. A game to avoid for me but my heart is wanting to take the Bengals to put these cocky Steelers in their place. I do lean slightly to the unders on what seems an inflated line of 50 points.


49ers @ Browns -1.5
Just like the Hokey Cokey Johnny Football is back after being in, out, in, out and shaking it all about! The 49ers showed last Sunday in Chicago that they fight hard and that they can hang around in games. It's a different matter though being a one point underdog this week to that of a full touchdown dog the week before. The Browns cannot stop the run and we know San Fran will stay committed to it themselves with journeyman Shaun Draugn. San Fran should be able to shut down Cleveland's below average ground game and put it all on the shoulders of Johnny Manziel. Because of that I will take the road dog and lean to the under 41 points.


Titans @ Jets -7
The Jets are on a play off push whilst Tennessee are coming off that crazy win against Jacksonville. Famous last words here but I don't see Gang Green slipping up here so will take them laying a touchdown on the handicap line. These are the games as a Jets backer that you fear Ryan Fitzpatrick will regress so I won't be laying any more than seven points.


Raiders @ Broncos -6.5
Oakland have to show in this game that this is the new Raiders and not the same old Raiders after that poor home loss to Kansas City last Sunday. A fourth quarter meltdown saw them lose to the Chiefs and see their play off dreams go up in smoke. Trust the Denver defense to get the win but I'm not sure I want to give up more than a touchdown but at minus six and a half this is a no brainer play.


Cowboys @ Packers -7
This number opened -5 before shooting to -8.5 and has now slipped back to Green Bay laying a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers has more escapability than Kirk Cousins and they've had an extra four days rest ahead of this one. Green Bay by double digits for me but I can't back them with my hard earned. They are just not playing like Green Bay!



Seahawks @ Ravens +11.5
I was happy to lay any number up to a full touchdown on the Hawks as they are rolling. The line has escalated up into double digits so I could only look to add them to a three team teaser or a Moneyline parlay. The Ravens have played tough but their injuries have killed them and this should be an easy Hawks road win.


Giants @ Dolphins +2
Let's be honest Giant fans, it's Eli and OBJ against the Dolphins with maybe a bit of JPP sprinkled in. As crazy as it sounds even a loss here does not see the GMen out of the play off picture. Miami has no home field advantage and they have nothing to play for even in this prime time spot. GMen for me but this could be high scoring as Tannehill has begun to link up well with rookie Parker so the game score could easily go north of fifty.


Week 14 #SuperContest selections

Bears -3
Broncos -7
Jaguars Pk
Lions Pk
Seahawks -6.5

39-26 season to date


Enjoy the games folks!

All the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Weekend

Goal Rush Weekend

Hello all and welcome to the next instalment of the Goal Rush as we look to bounce back from that 2-2 weekend last time out.  After hitting the first two bets and extending our run to 10-0 we certainly came crashing down with a huge bump! Not only did we see the third game lose but the fourth game saw our very first 0-0 in the seventy second game of this inaugural Goal Rush season.

A 2-2 over 2.5 goal performance and a 0-4 Yes on BTTS record made me a very miserable man this past Saturday night. Our record for the season extends to the below:

 

Over 0.5 goals 71-1      98.61% strike rate

Over 1.5 goals 63-9      87.5% strike rate

Over 2.5 goals 46-26    63.88% strike rate

Over 3.5 goals 26-46    36.11% strike rate

Yes on BTTS 42-30     58.33% strike rate

Home wins 36 Draws 11 Away wins 25

 

Seventy two games is quite a decent sample size but it is still not a big enough data pool to trust our selections with big stakes. I would like to see at least 150 bets or so before I raise the levels of my own investment. Anyway, on to this weekend and we have three games on Saturday and one game on Sunday.

 

Eskisehirspor v Gaziantepspor @ 11/10 Turkish Super Liga, 2pm UK Kick Off Time

After our late show last Friday night in Turkey we head back to the Super Liga hoping for an easier and quicker cash than last week where we waited until the dying seconds before collecting. Bottom placed Eskisehirspor entertain eleventh placed Gaziantepspor into the Ataturk Stadyumu located in Eskisehir. The visitors have conceded at least twice in each of their last five away games whilst the home team have conceded at least twice in each of their last six games, seventeen in total. In fact Eskisehirspor are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have allowed two or more goals in all but two of their fourteen league matches.  The last three meetings of the sides have all seen Yes on BTTS and the past two games between them have gone over 3.5 goals let alone over 2.5 goals. I really like the overs here at a generous looking price of odds against.

 

Colchester v Barnsley @ 4/6 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time

I bet you thought we would head to Peterborough this Saturday for a Division One Goal Rush but I think I have found a better bet this weekend than the reliable Posh. When the sides met last season both games went over 3.5 goals as on each occasion the home side won, 3-2 in Barnsley and 3-1 in Colchester. The sides have played a combined forty games so far this campaign and there have been no fewer than one hundred and thirty eight goals in those matches, an average of 3.45 goals per game. Both of these teams sit very low in the Division and these high goal scoring trends do not appear to change when they play teams of a similar stature as their combined twelve games in this spot against bottom third opposition have seen a total of thirty nine goals. Give me a high scoring game here and take a bit of the overs at the best price you can get.

 

Inverness v Kilmarnock @ Evens Scottish Premiership, 3pm UK Kick Off Time

We are heading to the Highlands of Scotland for the final game of our Saturday selections. Historically this game has been packed with goal scoring action and it is rare that both teams do not find the back of the net. The teams know each other well as due to the structure of Scottish Football they are forced to play each other endless amounts of times each season. Yes on BTTS has gone 27-5 since April 2005 when the sides meet in league action. Inverness have not kept a clean sheet in league action in any of their last nine games whilst Kilmarnock have kept just two clean sheets all season. Interestingly one of those was away to Celtic last time out but as we all know the way teams set up for a trip to Parkhead is far different to that of a usual Premiership away day. At the current market price of Evens this looks a very attractive bet to me so take advantage.

 

Sheffield United v Coventry @ 4/5 English Division One, Sunday 12pm UK Kick Off Time

I am hoping that you don’t cough up your Roast Beef this Sunday cheering on some goals at Bramall Lane. The home faithful have already seen plenty of those so far this season with thirty eight goals flying in during the Blades’ home fixtures. Coventry away games have not always seen a lot of goals as their ten road trips have seen a total of twenty three goals so below a 2.5 goal average per game.  However, when they play sides placed in the top half of the table there have been a total of twenty nine total goals in just nine games, an average of over three goals per game. Phew!  United’s last eight home games have seen an over 2.5 goal bet cash and their first two home matches of the season saw 2-0 home wins so none of the ten at Bramall Lane have seen less than two goals. Despite being top of the league Coventry have conceded plenty of goals lately as the opposition have scored in six of their last seven games and Coventry have conceded nine goals during those seven matches. Having said that Coventry scored sixteen goals in those seven games and I see no reason for this game not to be a high scoring affair. With this game being shown live on Sky Sports there may even be a good chance of gaining a price of above Even money should the first few minutes of the game see no real goalmouth action.

 

As I always say 1.7 or 7/10 is our guide price that we should be looking to obtain as a minimum. A few times of late the market has moved against me in terms of the price shortening either between me writing the column and/or after the posting of the column. If we assume that our 46-26 over 2.5 goals record has been achieved with every bet struck at 1.7 then we have made 6.2 points of profit which equates to a 8.61% ROI on equal stakes (before any potential exchange commission). This would be a very suitable long term return if we can continue to keep this rate of success moving forward. That is the target.

I have rambled on for long enough so all that is required from me now is to wish you the very best of British luck and I shall be back Sunday morning with my NFL thoughts.

 

All the best

Jimmy

NFL Week 13

NFL Week 13

Hello folks! We are closing in on the final weeks of the regular season. Although the main meat of the NFL season is still ahead of us I have to say I enjoy the betting aspect of the schedule far more in these weeks. SuperContest picks are still doing well as I am 37-23 for the season and feel fairly good about them this week as well!

 

Falcons @ Buccaneers -1  This game opened a pick and money came in for the Buccs. I'm interested to see how Tampa Bay handle this sudden prosperity especially after a coming off of a thirteen point loss on the road to the Matt Hasselbeck led Colts. I lean to the Falcons here. 

Texans @ Bills -3.5  Buffalo need this game else you can all but write them out of the AFC Play Off picture. For a limited offense the last team you want to see coming into your house is the hottest defense in football. JJ Watt and the boys are playing at such a high level so this will be no easy game for the Bills. Getting over the field goal on the line is big for me, Bills!

Ravens @ Dolphins -3.5  Baltimore won on MNF but they should have lost.............to the Browns! Dan Campbell is fighting for his head coaching career as if he doesn't get this gig he won't get another! Give me one final effort for this season from Miami against this banged up Ravens before they start packing their suitcases for their holidays. 

Bengals @ Browns +9  Only the Browns could lose a football match the way they did on MNF. Josh McCown is out for the season with injury so who will be under centre for Cleveland? It’s Austin Davis time and to be fair he looked ok at the end of the Monday game. The Bengals are rolling but this is a Divisional Game between the two Ohio rivals. Give me the Brownies! 

Jets @ Giants +2   Remember the last time they played when it was Christmas Eve and Victor Cruz salsa danced his way for 99 yards? Another game which opened a Pick but soon drew Green on Gang Green. The Jets need this game more than the GMen in terms of the Play Off race but Big Blue have a tough run into the end of the season. In a coin flip game I will take the more all rounded Jets to get it done and avenge the Cruz celebration but I won't be betting this one. 

49ers @ Bears -7  In December Chicago are favoured at home by seven points. If you'd have said that at the beginning of the season everybody would have imagined you were talking about the Bulls of the Windy City, not the Bears! Chicago but only straight up for me as I can't have them laying this many points to anybody. Not even the poor Niners travelling west to east for an early kick off. Give me San Fran for small stakes.

Seahawks @ Vikings +2  This is the time of year when the big players in the league stand up and be counted. Russell Wilson is one of those players and it is his time of year to shine so even after the loss of Jimmy Graham through injury I see them having a strong end to the regular season. Give me the Seahawks straight up to take another important step towards securing an NFC Play Off berth.

Cardinals @ Rams +4.5  Little bit of money on the under has pushed this points line down one and half from the open to 43 points. The common perception is that St Louis will not be able to move ball at all in this game but I'm not so sure. I sense Todd Gurley may have some success here so will be avoiding this game completely. I lean to the over especially after that small move down.

Jaguars @ Titans -2.5  Bet this game at your own risk people. Jacksonville lost at home last Sunday to the pitiful Chargers whilst Tennessee have not won any of their last eleven home games. If you want to bet this game, please do it with someone else's money! 

Broncos @ Chargers -4  It opened Denver minus a field goal but bettors seemed lock in on Brock Osweiler after SNF. There is no home field advantage in San Diego so expect to see a huge influx of Broncos fans excited to see this new Osweiler era. There will be more tape on him available so it won't all be rosy in Brock's garden but I will take Denver minus the points here. 

Chiefs @ Raiders +3  Dropping to 5-7 would not make it insurmountable for Oakland to get into the end of season dance but a loss here to the Chiefs, given their record, would make it very difficult. Another game I’ve no real feel on but if pushed give me the home dog straight up as the Black Hole should be an intimidating place for this KC team this Sunday. 

Eagles @ Patriots -8.5  We've always wondered how valuable Rob Gronkowski is to New England. This line opened at minus thirteen so the value of the big man to the Patriots is well over a field goal. Philly will sense an opportunity here and if Chip Kelly, and it's a big IF, allows DeMarco Murray to run north to south then they have a chance. If I was betting this game I would take the Eagles to at least have a chance of a late back door cover. Can they win straight up? That is a different story so those looking to oppose the Pats may want to keep their powder dry until next weeks big test for them.

Panthers @ Saints +6.5  Carolina are 11-0 and for a non description franchise such as the Panthers the verge of historical greatness is upon them. Other teams at this record with more storied histories may start to take their foot off of the gas but not these Panthers. Until they lose they will give you every ounce of blood, sweat and tears they have in their body. I won't lay the points on the road but I do expect Carolina to win especially as Brees appears to have lost all of his arm strength. 

Colts @ Steelers -7  Andrew Luck injured and Big Ben concussed! I cannot bet this game at all but if forced to I would grab the points.

Cowboys @Washington -4   This was quickly bet up to four from its open of three. You cannot bet the Cowboys with Calamitous Cassel under centre. If Washington get the ground game going then they should take this game and if the home crowd is well into this game then they could do it quite handily.

SuperContest Selections

Broncos -4

Browns +9.5

Dolphins -4

Seahawks Pk

Texans +3.5

 

Enjoy the games and best of luck everybody!

Jimmy

Goal Rush Weekend

Goal Rush Weekend

Hello all and welcome to the next chapter of the Goal Rush as we look to keep going on this 8-0 tear up that we are currently on! Please be aware we have an early start this Friday night……..

Over 0.5 goals 68-0

Over 1.5 goals 60-8

Over 2.5 goals 44-24

Over 3.5 goals 26-42

Yes on BTTS 42-26

Home wins 33 Draws 10 Away wins 25

I have had a few people contact me with regards to the over 0.5 goals run that this column has produced. Some of you are betting one goal or more in the game rather than the over 2.5 goals and this has so far, I say so far, proved faultless! Before commission a £10 starting bank staked on all selections with winnings rolled over would have turned into £143.97 (assuming an average price of 1.04). As many of the games overlap or run concurrently this would not have been strictly possible but it is worth taking into consideration.

Friday Game

Galatasaray v Bursaspor @ 8/13 (opened 4/5)  Turkish Super League, 6pm UK Kick Off time

The most famous name in Turkish football, well at least to us Brits anyway, are the pick this Friday night to try and kick us off this weekend! The last four meetings of these two teams at Galatasaray have all gone over 2.5 goals as scorelines of 2-1, 3-2, 6-0 and 2-2 have seen an overs ticket cash. Galatasaray currently lie in fourth spot whilst the visitors are thirteenth in this eighteen team division. When the hosts take on bottom half opposition there have been twenty seven goals in the seven games with Yes on BTTS going 6-1 so Bursaspor should be able to find a way to score in this game. Both the over and Yes on BTTS have gone 9-3 in the teams twelve combined home/away games so far this campaign. There is a huge trend towards both teams scoring in this match so I will take the over 2.5 goals to cash.

Saturday Games

Freiburg v Union Berlin @ 13/17 German Bundesliga 2, Midday UK Kick Off time

Table topping Freiburg host thirteenth placed Union Berlin in what sets up to be a very high scoring game this Saturday lunchtime. There have been no fewer than 110 goals in the teams’ combined thirty two games so far this season, an average approaching 3 ½ goals per outing. Splitting it down even further to home/road splits and there have been 62 goals in the sides’ fifteen games in this spot (Union have only played seven on the road), over four goals per game. For a team that top the league Freiburg are a defensive nightmare as they have kept just one clean sheet on home soil this season and in six of their other seven home games they have conceded at least twice! Here they welcome a Union Berlin side who have scored in eleven of their last twelve league games. I really like the over to kick start our weekend Goal Rush!

Brentford v MK Dons @ 11/12 English Championship, 3pm UK Kick Off time

A new era begins at Griffin Park for Brentford as new head coach Dean Smith takes over at the helm of the West London club. The sides have met six times since New Years Eve 2011 and over 2.5 goals has gone 5-1 in those meetings with a total of twenty four goals flying in. Brentford are just 4-1-4 on home soil and given the fact they have already conceded fourteen goals on home soil the visitors will travel knowing they have a great chance to get something from this fixture. Over 2.5 goals is 6-3 at Griffin Park so far this season so at the current market price this looks a decent risk/reward play to the over 2.5 goals.

Waasland-Beveren v Standard Liege @ 6/7  Belgian Jupiler League, 730pm UK Kick Off time

The sides have met seven times since August 2012 and over 2.5 goals has gone just 3-4 in these match ups and all three games in Beveren have gone under 2.5 goals. So why this game you may be wondering given those historical trends? The Belgian League has produced goals a plenty this season as they average 2.81 goals per game. Games involving Beveren average 3.41 gpg and Standard Liege average 3.18 with a total of 112 goals in 34 total games, 23-11 to the overs. There is a huge trend this season to both teams conceding in this game so at this market price I will take a piece of the over 2.5 goals as could the worst case scenario be a 1-1 draw?

Will the train keep rolling down the track or will we get de-railed? I want to win every bet I ever make for both myself and for you but we must realise that despite this great run that trees do not grow to the sky so be responsible with your betting.

Have a great weekend folks, don’t forget to listen to the EPL podcast with myself and @petenordsted http://www.petenordsted.com/premier-league-betting-podcast-week-15/ and to look out for my EPL snapshot thoughts for the main Las Vegas insider @ToddFuhrman on his www.toddstake.com site

Good luck and all the best

Jimmy

NFL Sunday Week 12

NFL Week 12

 

Buccaneers @ Colts -3  The Buccs are on the rise but you have to imagine at some point Jameis Winston has a shocker and throws away a game for the Buccs. That game will more than likely not be this one as the Colts do not have a fearsome defense. Both teams are still well in hit play off hunt and this game is too close to call for me so I will pass. 

 

Vikings @ Falcons -1.5 If Minnesota had handled business last Sunday I would think the Vikings would have been favoured for this trip to Georgia. The line opened Atlanta -2.5 but money has poured in on the Vikings before a little buyback has drive. The number back to minus one and a half. Atlanta are falling apart at the seams and with star running back Devonta Freeman suffering concussion last week the situation doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon. I will take Minnesota on the road here in the nice cosy confines of the Georgia Dome to get the job done. 

 

Dolphins @ Jets -3.5  Talking of teams falling apart at the seams and two teams in the same boat meet at MetLife Stadium. The loser of this game will in my opinion have their play off hopes vanquished and the last five weeks of the season for them will be played out in meaningless fashion. Another game too close to call but if I had to I would take the Fins plus that extra half point over the field goal on the handicap line. 

 

Raiders @ Titans +1  Tennessee are showing some signs of life on both sides of the ball and despite being 2-8 there is a surprising amount of positivity around the franchise. The flight board at Oakland Airport will state a destination of Nashville but it might as well be headed up Last Chance Saloon for the Raiders. At 4-6 the men from the Black Hole need this win to get back into the AFC Play Off race after three straight losses. Despite being sat on a Titans under season win total I will tentatively take the home dog in this spot to all but end the Raiders season. 

 

Chargers @ Jaguars -5  Don’t look now but the Jags are trying to muscle their way into the play off race and here they favoured by over a field goal which has been unheard of in recent years. If I had a pound for every time I saw Philip Rivers frantically clapping his hands to get a snap out before the play clock ran out I would be a rich man! San Diego are a shambles and I will take Jacksonville here purely on the amount of playmakers they have for Blake Bortles to target. Rivers is a great quarterback but his hands are tied but can you trust the Jags as a favourite of over a field goal? Jags or pass for me. 

 

Saints @ Texans -3  Usual ‘Saints on the road’ rules apply for me in this one. Brees is no longer the Brees of old and on home soil that is enough but not here against a JJ Watt led Texans defense. That Houston defensive unit has conceded just twenty nine points in their last three games and they will get after Brees in a loud play off type atmosphere. Brian Hoyer should be back under centre for the home team God only knows what DeAndre Hopkins will do to the horrific Saints defense. Houston by over a touchdown. 

 

Giants @ Washington +2.5 These old foes know each other so well and Washington know a win here will see them move into joint possession for the lead for the NFC East. Plenty of money this week for the GMen but we know that Washington are a different side at home than they are on the road. I will take New York but only straight up as this will be a closely fought encounter.

 

Rams @ Bengals -9 This point line looked very generous to the Rams when it opened at just seven points. Bettors soon twigged on that the three consecutive losses has seen the Rams' season fall apart and their quarterback situation is a shambles. Is Mr 8-8 going to go 4-12? Bengals by hefty double digits for me.

 

Bills @ Chiefs -5 Both teams come into this game with a 5-5 record and the opening point line of KC minus three and a half points suggested Vegas saw the Chiefs as the slightly better team. I see it the other way as I sense Buffalo have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Injuries to the Chiefs skill positions sees them line up players I have never even heard of! The line was driven up to KC minus six before a little buyback and I love the Bills in this spot. Shop around and you may get that six maybe even six and a half near kick off. 

 

Cardinals @ 49ers +10 Any team who are 3-7 are not very good and that is the record that San Francisco come into this game with. However, the Niners have fought really hard on home soil throughout the season and ten points is a lot of points to give any NFL team, especially in a divisional game. Last Sunday they showed great spirit in Seattle to keep coming back and trading punches with the Seahawks. With six games to go the Cardinals have a three game lead at the top of the NFC West. They may just want to get through games here on in and manage themselves for the play offs. Avoid on the handicap line. 

 

Steelers @ Seahawks -3.5  The much vaunted Seattle defense has given up 0 (Clausen), 10 (Stafford), 27 (Newton), 39 (Palmer) and 13 (Gabbert) points at home this season. Do you spot the pattern there? Good quarterbacks are putting up points against the Hawks in their own back yard and Ben Roethlisberger certainly has some weapons at his disposal. The match line opened Seattle -5.5 but has been bet down as some big bets have been placed on the Steelers. I prefer to take the over 45.5 points as this could be surprisingly high scoring. 

 

Patriots @ Broncos +3  This could be a very hard fought slugfest in the Mile High City on Sunday Night Football. Bettors frantically drove the line down from the opening point of -5.5 to just -3 on the Pats and further injuries to New England skill position players makes this a tough one to call. I will grab the points here as with Gronk double and triple teamed and a hefty pass rush coming after Tom Terrific they could come up short in the Mile High City.  

 

Ravens @ Browns -3  This is not the most attractive Monday Night Football we have ever seen and was made less entertaining by the justifiable demotion of Johnny Manziel. The line opened as a Pk but with Josh McCown stepping in under centre for Cleveland belief has grown in the betting market that the Browns will win. I see McCown a serviceable NFL quarterback and with Joe Flacco out for the season along with Forsett and Smith I don't see how Baltimore move the ball. 

 

 

Season Long Bets

Arizona Cardinals – Bet over 8 ½ wins and currently 8-2  Almost weighed in

New Orleans Saints – Bet under 8 ½ wins and currently 4-6  Starting to count the pennies

St Louis Rams – Bet under 7 ½ wins and currently 4-6  Still a little Gurley related nervousness

Tennessee Titans  - Bet under 5 ½ wins and currently 2-8  Only a lot of Music City Miracles will rob us!

Washington Redskins – Bet under 6 ½ wins and currently 4-6  In that division anything is possible

 

SuperContest

Last week I went 4-1 despite crossing off of my list Houston Texans +2 and swapping them for the Philadelphia Eagles -5 ½ in a move that stopped me from going 5-0. My record is 34-21 for the season and I would be tied for 11th in the contest if I had actually entered it. I am in the process of writing about this in more detail as two years ago when I was taking part in the Contest I was 23-30-2. That is a substantial improvement and I am hoping that I can put down in words some of the key lessons that I have realised over the past two years which has helped improve my gridiron gambling.

Bengals -8.5

Bills +6.5

Broncos +3

Browns -2.5

Texans -3

 

Best of luck everybody and enjoy the games!

Jimmy