NFL Sunday Week 10

NFL Sunday Week 10

Here we go then folks as we get down to the business end of the season and there are some big lines this week. Early in the season I would not have been opposed to blanket backing the biggish dogs but we are now entering the time of year when some teams have nothing to play for bar draft picks. So be aware, be very aware of the motivation for some teams, coaching staffs and organisations.

Lions @ Packers -10.5  In many ways I'm amazed this number is not higher, in the -13.5 to -14 range, so I sense there is a little bit of value on Green Bay to bounce back after two straight defeats. However, this is a divisional game and their defense is like a sieve. I'd rather side with the overs of 49 points than trust the Pack, given their recent issues, to cover a double digit spread. 

Dolphins @ Eagles -6  Wayne Rooney slapped a WWE character this past week so maybe Dan Campbell is up next for some rough treatment from Wazza. The honeymoon is over for Campbell and his horrific clock management last week just before half time cost the Fins dear at a critical moment in the game. Even laying just under a touchdown take the Eagles. 

Panthers @ Titans +4.5  Don't be fooled by the amount of points Tennessee scored last week as it was against the Saints' horrific defense. Carolina are 8-0 and should make it 9-0 here but do you want to lay more than a field goal on the points line? With the point line set at 44 points I'd rather look to the Titans defense to step up and the Panthers unit to be tough and go with a low scoring game. Unders. 

Saints @ Washington +1 Drew Brees favoured on the road, outside and on turf…..How ironic that a quarterback with a name of Brees struggles in the wind! Neither team can be trusted but the wrong team, New Orleans, is favoured in this one. Washington are fighting hard for coach Gruden but they are just not very good. That said with Rob Ryan still heading up the Saints' defense I'm happy to side with the home dog here. 

Jaguars @ Ravens -5   The Ravens have had seven of their eight games this season decided by six or less points and the other game they lost to the Cardinals by eight. Given those stats it's hard to lay the points with them entertaining a spunky looking Jags team who still believe they are in the play off race. There has been some ‘sharp’ money this week for Jacksonville which has driven this number down from the opening line. Give me the Jags and one reason why they can't win this straight up? 

Cowboys @ Buccaneers +1  Not quite sure how the Matt Cassell led Cowboys are a one point road favourite here as they have lost six straight. I took the over 42.5 points earlier this week as I sensed the points total would tick upwards and it has to 43.5 points. With famous Jameis under centre for the Buccs there always seems to be plenty of points so even after that upward movement I will take the overs to cash.

Bears @ Rams -7  Count these Bears out at your peril as coach John Fox has got them playing hard. They will need to be up for the fight against this Rams side who are accused of treading the boundaries of legality. At any level of on or over a touchdown I lean towards the Bears staying honest and Cutler being able to create far more than Nick Foles does through the air. Da Bears ATS. 

Browns @ Steelers -6  No Big Ben yet (surely he will not play) and this line is still up over a field goal? Something doesn't seem right here and whoever is under centre for Cleveland should be able to take advantage of the Steelers secondary. Another road dog will be taken by me here. 

Vikings @ Raiders -3  With doubts over Teddy Bridgewater you have to think this game will be placed by the Vikings in the hands of Adrian Peterson. Last week DeAngelo Williams ran all over the Raiders' defense has he accumulated 170 rushing yards. Their game plan of looking to shorten the game may bring in the unders on the point line. I trust Derek Carr far more than a knocked up Teddy B or whoever comes in from the bullpen for him. Also with expected difficult throwing conditions expected in the Bay Area I like the under 44 points.

Patriots @ Giants +7  This is a game to watch and enjoy but only bet on for fun stakes. This is the Patriots against the Giants and strange things happen when these teams meet. With Deon Lewis out I sense a huge night for Rob Gronkowski so check out any prop bets on his receiving yards and touchdown scoring. I like well over 100 yards and at least one, more than likely two, touchdowns from the big beast so take the over 83.5 yards on offer for his receiving yards. 9/4 on two touchdowns and the 9/1 on a hat-trick should be considered for players wanting to some bigger value on the only un-defendable player in the league.

Chiefs @ Broncos -4.5  Can the Broncos pull away from a half decent divisional rival? The answer is probably no and why the line has shifted from Denver -6 to Denver -4.5 points. This will be a very interesting game and one in which I am sure the betting action will be heavily siding with Denver. If this line ticks back up to the six/six and a half mark then I will definitely be having a piece of the underdog. 

Cardinals @ Seahawks -3  The game of the week sees Arizona trying to take that next step and all but finish off the Seahawks's divisional title hopes. They have won before in the home of the twelfth man so this trip will not daunt Bruce Arians' men. Going into this both teams are coming off of their bye so expect the well rested best efforts from both. I'd rather side with the unders here as these foes know each other so well. If you want to bet this Prime Time game then just take the Cardinals Straight Up as the value play as since the beginning of last season Arizona are 12-2 SU with Palmer under centre.

Texans @ Bengals -11  This is a big number, although it opened 13, but we have seen the Texans blown away twice already this season by sides able to cover a double digit number against them. I'm not quite sure why but I sense that Houston will stay close enough to have a shot at winning this game straight up. Call it a sixth sense, or just a thick sense, but I have that feeling........

 

SuperContest

Currently 27-18 this season and I do like this weeks selections and it was difficult narrowing it down as I did like about 8 games on the card this week. Let’s hope I picked the right five:

Buccaneers +1.5

Eagles -6.5

Jaguars +5.5

Tennessee +5.5

Washington Pk

 

Good luck folks with all your bets today.

Jimmy

Saturday Goal Rush

Goal Rush 14th November

Morning Team Goals.

A very disappointing 1-4 return from last weekends Goal Rush. Is this a blip or a regression to the mean? Only time will tell if our current hit rate of 61.4% will continue!

With the International break this weekend there are much fewer games for us to assess.

Updated stats are as below:
Over 0.5 goals 57-0
Over 1.5 goals 50-7
Over 2.5 goals 35-22
Over 3.5 goals 18-39
Yes on BTTS 36-21
Home wins 25 Draws 10 Away wins 22

Gillingham v Bury @ 13/15 English League Division One, 3pm UK Kick off
Both teams have seen goals go in when they take on fellow top half placed sides. Their twelve combined games in the spot have seen thirty eight goals, an average of over 3 goals per match with Yes on BTTS going 9-3 in those games. There is a high likelihood that both teams will net and encouragingly four of Bury’s games in this situation were on the road and they scored at least once on each trip. Fifty one goals in the sides’ sixteen home/away games so far this season suggests goals will be in order so I am happy to take the over 2.5 goals here.

Chojniczanka Chojnice v Pogon Siedke @ 11/10 Polish I Liga, 4pm UK Kick off
I would not advise putting this bet on via the phone if you have had a few strong shandys on Friday night as the home team is a bit of a mouth full! The sides met twice last season and on each occasion the game saw a total of five goals scored. Home wins were the order of the day as Choj (I will cut it short) won this fixture 5-0 and Siedke won the reverse fixture 4-1. Choj are poor at home and their 1-1-4 home record has been compiled thanks to conceding fifteen goals on home soil. Siedke are not watertight themselves though on the road as they have conceded twelve goals in their nine away games so far this campaign. The over 2.5 goals in this division is hitting at 47% so I can understand the reasons for the over being priced at 11/10. However, Yes on BTTS is 10-5 in those fifteen games in this spot this season for these teams. Given the history in these meetings, albeit a very small sample size, I will take the over 2.5 goals here at what I see as a juicy price of odds against.

Dessel Sport v Excelsior @ 9/10 Belgian Second Division, 630pm UK Kick off
The sides have met four times since September 2013 and each of those games have seen at least two goals with the over 2.5 goals going 3-1. Encouragingly Excelsior have scored six times in those two visits to Dessel and my only concern is the failure of Dessel to find the net in three of the four games. The time they did score though was at home in February 2014 when the sides drew two apiece. This division sees the over 2.5 goals bet hit at a rate of 54% with Yes on BTTS going 8-4 in the sides’ twelve games in this home/away spot this season and 17-9 overall. Dessel started the season slowly in front of goal but they have now scored in five straight games and at least twice in three of those five. With Excelsior scoring in all but one of their thirteen league games this season I will take the over 2.5 goals to cash here at what I feel is a decent price.

Here’s to at least a 2-1 GoalRush weekend and best of luck with all your other bets! I will definitely be back Sunday with my NFL Sunday thoughts.

Speak soon
Jimmy

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

  

Buffalo Bills (4-4) @ New York Jets (5-3)   Jets -2 ½ and Total 42 ½ 

Sexy Rexy Ryan takes his Buffalo Bills back to his old New York team looking to put a halt towards the Todd Bowles led Jets’ march towards a Play Off spot. Gang Green know a victory tonight will go a long way to eliminating Buffalo from that same Play Off picture and send Rex home scowling rather than grinning like a Cheshire cat.

Despite being the home team it doesn’t shape up too well for the Jets coming into this game on the back of a short work week. Six time Pro Bowl centre Nick Mangold is heavily banged up but is set to start and he is a crucial component to the Jets’ ability to move the ball. Even with Mangold their offensive line of late has failed to generate much downhill push and Jacksonville shut down the Jets’ run game last Sunday.  Chris Ivory carried the ball 23 times for just 25 yards on Sunday as the Jaguars stacked nine men in the box in an attempt to make them one dimensional. Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to overcome both the Jags’ tactics and a finger injury, which appears to require surgery as soon as Friday morning, to lead them to a 28-23 victory. Tonight I expect Eric Decker to be the recipient of a lot of work coming out of the slot as Fitzpatrick may need to give up on the run game if Buffalo adopt similar tactics to those of the Jags.

For Buffalo the formula will be much of the same of late as Sunday when they destroyed Miami on the ground as they will want to run the ball at a beat up Jets defense.  Todd Bowles is wary of his depleted secondary  so is sure to give them some added cover and will rely on Darrelle Revis taking away Sammy Watkins. If Revis is not able to put him out on the famous island then it will be a very long night for the Jets. The Jets are so injury hit that Bowles looks set to thrust former first round bust Dee Milliner straight back into the action after a spell on the short term IR. Don’t get me wrong the Bills do not have an array of explosive talent out wide but the fact that the Jets will need to commit extra resources in an attempt to stop the Buffalo run game should help out the production of Chris Hogan and Robert Woods. The mobility of Tyrod Taylor should also cause this Jets defense some issues as if Blake Bortles was able to extend plays at the weekend just think what the shifty Taylor may be able to do!

With the point line set at New York –2 ½ I do not want to participate in the Match Market but I am drawn towards a bet in the Points Market. Both teams should move the ball on each other as I believe both teams defensives are just a little over rated. Even with some gusty winds in the New York area tonight I like the over on the 42 ½ point line. The over has gone 7-3 on this point line over the last ten meetings and over in all of the last five meets in the Big Apple. For those wanting a dabble in the player markets then the 10/11 on Eric Decker over 62.5 receiving yards and the 10/11 LeSean McCoy over 80.5 all purpose yards appeal to me. 

Trust the points to rack up as remember folks when you’re aching and tired it is far easier to attack than to defend!

 

Selection

Back over 42.5 points

NFL Sunday

Morning Folks

Is it already Sunday again? The weeks certainly fly past in the NFL season and we head into what looks a great weekend of action. There are three fantastic live games on Sky this Sunday and then we have Monday Night Football. I am sure the Chargers/Bears will still be on in my house, mainly as I have Josh Lambo Danny Woodhead in my Fantasy Team, but it’s not an enticing match up. The huge swathe of injuries last weekend makes this an even more intriguing week from a betting perspective.

The weekend kicked off with Cincinnati laying a beat down on the Johnny Manziel led Cleveland Browns. Tyler Eiffert being in my opponents Fantasy Team this week puts me behind the eight ball so I need a few of my players to go off majorly. Come on Ted Ginn Jnr……….oh dear I hear you cry!

Packers @ Panthers +3

This will be a fantastic early game for us Sky viewers (well those not fixated on the RedZone anyway lol). Green Bay seem to be having issues with their receivers getting open and this is not just a knee jerk reaction to last weeks loss at Denver. It’s been happening a while now and here they give up points on the road again to a team with a better run game and a better defense. At this price point I will side with the Panthers as the value here.

 

Raiders @ Steelers -4 ½  

This is a tricky spot for the Raiders as they travel cross country off of the back of a great win that has gained them huge plaudits in the media. The Jets were terrible and although Le’veon Bell is out for the season I like Pittsburgh here. The line opened minus six but has been bet down to minus four and a half. DeAngelo Williams will be an adequate stand in for Bell and Ben Roethlisberger will be an extra week healthier. Steelers for me in a let down spot for the Raiders.

 

Titans @ Saints -7 ½  

The Titans fired Ken Wisenhunt in the week and was it a surprise as in his last 35 games as a NFL Headcoach he was 4-31. I am just surprised it didn’t happen sooner! Interim coach Mike Malarkey has not got a huge amount of offensive weapons to unleash on a Saints team who have found their swagger of late. Even with a Rob Ryan defense on show for the Saints the total of 47.5 may go under, incredible scenes in the Superdome. A very tricky call and one I am not prepared to make.

Rams @ Vikings -1

Teddy Bridgewater has not looked a great NFL quarterback in recent weeks and this week the Vikings take on one of the elite NFL defenses as St Louis’ defensive front is top notch. It is set to be very windy in Minneapolis today and this will hinder the Vikings far more than St Louis and further hamper Bridgewater in the passing game. The line opened Minnesota minus two and a half and the line was quickly bet down to minus one. I really like the Rams here straight up to physically overpower the home team, surely Mr 8-8 Jeff Fisher can go 5-3 and then mess it up.

 

Redskins @ Patriots -14

Blow out, blow out, blow out. Back door cover, back door cover, back door cover. Would you want to take on Jay Gruden with two weeks to prepare for a road game in New England……………probably! Either way there should be a lot of points this Sunday at Foxboro. I can see several scenarios to enable the overs to cash so I am all over it.

 

Jaguars @ Jets -8

Fitzpatrick from the shotgun every snap? The line for this has moved all over the place from the open of -2.5 to -6 and up to this level of -8. Fitzpatrick is banged up and it is a ‘pain tolerance’ issue for him. What the Jets are basically saying is, are you a man Fitzy? Give me the Jags plus the points but there are a lot of unknowns going into this game. The point line has been driven up from 40 to 43 here and at this level I am not touching it.

 

Dolphins @ Bills -3

This is the season for the Bills and they know it. They have also had two weeks to prepare for this game after that shambolic effect in London. Miami had a reality check last Thursday night as the Patriots laid the smack down to wannabe WWE character Dan Campbell. X’s and O’s aren’t big Dan’s strength and he I can see him getting out schemed by Rex Ryan, who although he is over rated, can at least a coach an NFL team. Get ready to return to the squared circle Dan and lay the points with the Bills.

Falcons @ 49ers +7

The Blaine Gabbert era begins in San Francisco. I always try and give quarterbacks a second chance in life as they are often a victim of the environment they are thrust into when they are drafted. Normally they are crap teams with limited resources such as Gabbert in Jacksonville. I expect Atlanta to win but I can’t participate in this from a wagering perspective on the match market. I lean to the overs though as I am sure the 49ers offensive unit will be more invigorated without Kaepernick under centre.

Giants @ Buccaneers +2.5

I dread to think what Odell Beckham Jnr may do to the dreadful Buccaneers defensive gameplan of sitting off and allowing receptions. The Giants defense is regressing after a decent start to the season and early this week I loved the over at 48. I still like it but it has ticked up a point and a half and the weather could turn stormy in Tampa. In view of this I will play smaller over stakes than I want to bet but still the over is the side to take.

Broncos @ Colts +5.5

If Andrew Luck appeared uncertain last week against Carolina I am not sure what this Denver defense will do to him this week. That said they are back in the dome in Indianapolis (although they will probably open the roof) and if this line continues to climb, it opened at three, and gets to six and a half then I will take the Colts. Andrew Luck 8-0 ATS as a home dog! At the present level though I am leaving this one alone.


Eagles @ Cowboys +3
The Eagles play quickly and the Cowboys can’t get a first down so each team might get thirty possessions in this game! The Eagles defense is sneaky good and I am convinced that their offense will find a way to score twenty points. Lay the points with the road favourite. A side note here, it will be interesting to see the reception Greg Hardy gets today from the home fans. As silly as it sounds I think this could affect Dallas. Eagles all day for me here.

 

Bears @ Chargers -4

Cutler without Forte take to the road and visit a Chargers side led by Rivers without Allen in a horrible game to try and work out. In these circumstances I will always put the points in my back pocket. Back John Fox to keep the Bears in the game long enough to cash any ticket that gives you over a field goal.

 

My season long under/over win total bets currently stand as below:

Tennessee Titans - under 5.5 wins and currently 1-6

Washington Redskins - under 6.5 wins and currently 3-4

New Orleans Saints - under 8.5 wins and currently 4-4

Arizona Cardinals - over 8.5 wins and currently 6-2

St Louis Rams - under 7.5 wins and currently 4-3

 

As we are at the half way mark now for the season I thought it would be interesting to see where we are with our Divisional Championship bets.

 

AFC

North  Baltimore Ravens @ 13/8 – endured a horrid season, a bet to forget at 2-6.

South  Houston Texans @ 9/2 – somehow still in the race at 3-5 in the worst division in football

East  Buffalo Bills @ 13/2 - currently sat at 3-4 and in the Pats division it is a Play Off berth at very best for them

West  Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1 – were unable to split a tough opening schedule and sit at 3-5 despite winning their last two.

 

NFC

North   Green Bay Packers @ 4/9 – Rodgers is finding it hard but they top the division at 6-1.

South  Atlanta Falcons @ 9/4 – cracks are beginning to show but they still hang on to the Panthers coat tails a game out of first place at 6-2.

East   Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 – sit a game back at 3-4 behind the Giants but I still believe they will win this division.

West  Seattle Seahawks @ 4/11 – two games behind the Cardinals but they welcome Arizona to the home of the 12^th man after this weeks bye.

 

Some real mixed results so far for our season long divisional bets and it seems incredible that the Texans may have been the best value pick we made. Crazy!

Finally on to my SuperContest just for fun picks. After last Monday's miraculous cover from the Colts we now stand at 24-16. I can handle a 60% return but prefer regular 3-2 weeks. Let’s see what this week brings and I am confident of these returning a positive week:

Bills -3

Eagles -2.5

Rams +1.5

Steelers -4

Patriots -13.5

 

Good luck with all your bets this Sunday and make it a winning weekend!

Jimmy

Goal Rush Sunday

Goal Rush Sunday 8^th November

It did not start well yesterday with the realisation that one game had been moved to Sunday. We then had a disappointing 1-1 draw in Switzerland as FC Zurich and FC Vaduz fought out a scoring draw. Our trip to Belgium was also a let down as Kortrijk beat Mechelen 1-0 to ensre our very first wipe out day on the Goal Rush. Onward and upward as they say!

Updated stats are as below:

Over 0.5 goals 54-0

Over 1.5 goals 47-7

Over 2.5 goals 34-20

Over 3.5 goals 18-34

Yes on BTTS 36-18

Home wins 25 Draws 10 Away wins 19

Well yesterday we headed to Switzerland not once but twice! Well at least we tried to but then it appears that Biel-Bienne moved their game to Sunday! Today we go back to the well again for our first game which is in Switzerland but then we move to Biel-Bienne for this eagerly awaited clash. Well, eagerly awaited by us anyway!

Thun v St Gallen @ 3/4 Swiss Super League, 1245pm kick off UK Time

Both sides sit the lower half of the table and will want to pull away from the bottom spot as we head to the mid point of the Swiss season. There have been twenty two goals in the seven home matches this season at Thun and more seem to be in the offing here. The last five meetings of the teams in Thun have gone over 2.5 goals and the last four have hit an over 3.5 goals bet.  The price is possibly this short due to just sixteen goals being scored in St Gallen’s seven away games this season. I am happy to go with the over 2.5 goals in this match as from my experience the historical goal trends more often than not outweigh short term league performances.

Biel-Bienne v Wohlen @ 4/5 Swiss Challenge League, 2pm UK kick off time

Third placed Biel-Bienne welcome relegation threatened Wohlen to the Tissot Arena in a game they must win to keep within striking distance of league leaders Lausanne Sports. The home side are undefeated in seven games on home soil this season and those games have seen a total of twenty four goals. Wohlen are not that bad on their travels considering their lowly league position as they are 1-4-2 on the road with just a total of fifteen goals being scored in those seven matches. Since May 2013 the teams have met ten times with the over 2.5 goals hitting at a rate of 90% with the only loss being the last meeting, a 2-0 win for the home team in Wohlen, just six weeks ago. With the weaker side in the match up scoring twice just six weeks ago I will take them to find the net at least once in this game as well.

Sampdoria v Fiorentina @20/21 Italian Serie A, 745pm UK kick off time

Games at the Luigi Ferrari Stadium this season have seen twenty one goals when Sampdoria play hosts in Serie A action. The nine games for these sides this season when they play fellow top half opposition has seen twenty eight goals and Yes on BTTS going 8-1. The Yes on BTTS is 5-1 overall when Sampdoria play at home but it is hard to imagine the away team not scoring. Fiorentina have managed to find the back of the net in every single game this season and Sampdoria have netted in each of their six home games this campaign. There is strong potential for this game to get to a 1-1 scoreline at some point during the game and at this price point the over 2.5 goals looks a good play from a risk/reward perspective.

 

Good luck all

Jimmy

FA Cup Underdog Treble

FA Cup Weekend - Let the dogs have their day!

Forget what Sky Sports will try and tell you as this coming weekend is the greatest football weekend of the year. The big clubs may not care about the FA Cup until the quarter finals but for many smaller clubs entering the First Round proper this will be the pinnacle of their achievements. The magic of the cup lives on for these teams and even after last nights win for Salford there will be further shocks, I can guarantee you of that!

The week leading up to the First Round is always filled with trepidation for the ‘big’ clubs and the build up has started badly for all the favoured teams. Each and every morning this week when the larger teams have drawn back their curtains they have been greeted by the sight of rain. Weather has such a big influence in these sorts of games as the greater hunger and desire is usually shown by the underdog. Fair weather and good pitch conditions helps retain the gap in technical ability but bad weather, like we have experienced of late, makes this First Round more of a lottery than the favoured clubs would like.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what factors you prioritise as important when trying to pick your way through the minefield that is betting the FA Cup. That is in general let alone the hardest round of all which is this one, the First Round proper.  There are probably three major factors I look for when attempting to locate a Cup upset and each of my selected games has at least one element, if not more, of those. They are:

1 – A manager or management team who the players really want to play for but desperately need a win

2 – The League team playing away from home who tend to be involved in low scoring nervous games

3 – A professional team with a poor recent away record on their travels at an up and coming non league club 

 

Despite this treble returning £77.63 for a £1 stake at William Hill I want to apologise. My initial plan was for all games to be played on Saturday so you could spend the winnings Saturday night but in the end I am going with my three strongest feelings looking at the card.  So with one game on Saturday and two games on Sunday where do we start………………

 

Stevenage Borough @ 7/2 home versus Gillingham 3pm Saturday kick off
Borough boss Teddy Sheringham has this week publicly stated that if he had started his managerial reign at a Premiership club with the same results as he has  at Stevenage then he would have been sacked. That might be true as last week they were humiliated 5-1 on home soil by promotion chasing Oxford. Sheringham is a likeable character and from what I can gather his players enjoy working with him. Maybe those words to the media was a calculated ploy from Sheringham to get his team up for this FA Cup tie.  Stevenage have scored in five straight games though and they host a Gillingham side who although lying third in Division One are just 3-2-3 on their travels this season. The home team have conceded in twelve straight games but the Gills defence is similarly porous as they have kept just one clean sheet in the last ten games. Stevenage seem to have too good of a squad to become embroiled in a relegation battle and are already twelve points off of the Play Off spots. Even this early in the season this looks as though it could be Stevenage’s last chance for some form of success this season and are Gillingham content to concentrate on promotion to the Championship? Get your brylcreem out ready to back Teddy’s Boys!

 

FC Halifax @ 5/1 home versus Wycombe Wanderers 2pm Sunday kick off
Many of you subscribers to my Stats Pack may be surprised that I am going against Wycombe in this game as I am high on them and their boss Gareth Ainsworth. The away team are a strong side on the road as they are set up and have conceded just three goals in seven away games this season. What a stupid selection then this is I hear you cry! Well these are the sorts of games where I see that kind of tactical set up to actually work against the league club. These are the games that the league club has to start fast, strong and physical so they take charge of the tie before the smaller club are able to gain a foothold. FA Cup First Round games are rarely won by tactics alone so as crazy as it seems the measured approach from Wanderers may work against them. Anyway have you ever been to the Shay (New or Old) on a wet and windy Sunday afternoon? It is character and heart that often wins the day over the pieces carefully arranged on the tactics board.

 

Maidstone @ 15/8 home versus Yeovil Town 2pm Sunday kick off

Away day journeys bring back memories for both players and supporters alike. If those memories are haunting then it often becomes a psychological problem for a team rather than an ability issue. This is what Yeovil face here as they have won just two of their last twenty one competitive matches on the road. Maidstone have an indifferent record at home so far this season as despite lying third in the Conference South they are just 4-0-3 at home. However, they have drawn just one of fourteen games and I am sure they would see any possible replay as a distraction, to their primary goal of promotion come next May. Yeovil have kept just two clean sheets all season and with the pressure on them here to deliver I can see them faltering even further in an already disappointing campaign. 

 

Remember folks the FA Cup is an absolute betting minefield so have some fun but do not expect to make any profit at all! Let us hope we get close or at least all three teams give us a real run for our money.

Speak tomorrow with another #GoalRush Sunday and my NFL column.

 

All the best
Jimmy

Saturday Goal Rush - Amended

Goal Rush Saturday 7th November

Morning Team Goals and we have made it through to Friday. For many of you the weekend will be a welcome respite from the grind of working life but for me it tends to be an even more tense time as I wait for random goals to hit the back of the net in obscure European countries across the continent!

Last weekend we went 3-3 and that disappoints me. The aim of the column, obviously, is to make consistent profits so at the price range we drill down into we need to get a 4-2 return from six selections, or at least a 6-5 stretch over eleven games!

Updated stats are as below:
Over 0.5 goals 52-0
Over 1.5 goals 46-6
Over 2.5 goals 34-18
Over 3.5 goals 18-34
Yes on BTTS 35-17
Home wins 24 Draws 9 Away wins 19


Biel-Bienne v Wohlen @ 4/5 Swiss Challenge League, 2pm UK kick off time **SUNDAY**
This game from all my initial research was set for Saturday but I have now been advised this is now being played on Sunday, apologies! Third placed Biel-Bienne welcome relegation threatened Wohlen to the Tissot Arena in a game they must win to keep within striking distance of league leaders Lausanne Sports. The home side are undefeated in seven games on home soil this season and those games have seen a total of twenty four goals. Wohlen are not that bad on their travels considering their lowly league position as they are 1-4-2 on the road with just a total of fifteen goals being scored in those seven matches. Since May 2013 the teams have met ten times with the over 2.5 goals hitting at a rat of 90% with the only loss being the last meeting, a 2-0 win for the home team in Wohlen, just six weeks ago. With the weaker side in the match up scoring twice just six weeks ago I will take them to find the net at least once in this game as well. Give me the over 2.5 goals in this game to get us off to a flying start to this weekends Goal Rush.

FC Zurich v FC Vaduz @ 8/11 Swiss Super League, 445pm UK kick off time
Bottom placed FZ Zurich host ninth placed (there are only ten teams) FC Vaduz in a key relegation battle at the Letzigrund in Zurich this Saturday tea time. The teams’ combined twenty eight games so far this season have seen no fewer than eight five goals (over three goals per game). Admittedly Vaduz have scored just two goals on the road but against a home side who have conceded no fewer than sixteen on home soil in just six goals they will travel confident of breaching the home sides backline. If the stats for Vaduz put fear into you for this overs pick then let me give you another stat to set your mind at ease. The sides have met nine times since September 2008 and over 2.5 goals is 8-1 and those games have seen a total of forty two goals with the last three match ups, all played this year, ending 2-2. Neither side fears the other and I anticipate this being another shoot out in the Swiss capital.


Kortrijk v Mechelen @ 11/10 Belgian Jupiler League, 730pm UK kick off time
Mid table Kortrijk entertain eleventh placed Mechelen as they look to continue their unbeaten home run against a side who have not won away from home this campaign. There has been a distinct lack of goals at the Guldensporenstadion (try saying that after three beers) as only eight goals have been scored in the seven league games there this season. However, we have some strong situational trends supporting goals to fly in on Saturday. The last five meetings of the two teams have all gone over 2.5 goals and Mechelen’s seven away games this season have seen a total of twenty two goals. Despite not earning a win on their travels they have scored in their last four away trips and their seven games against top half placed sides have seen a total of twenty seven goals with them scoring in all but one. At a market price of odds against this looks a decent play to finish off our Saturday programme of games.


There we have it for Saturday’s games and I will be back late on Saturday evening for the Sunday edition of the Goal Rush.

Don't forget to check out this weekends podcast with Pete Nordsted. We chat all things Premiership as I try and haul back the huge lead Pete has built up in our H2H.

http://www.petenordsted.com/premier-league-betting-podcast-week-12/

Have a great weekend folks and apologies for the late adjustment on the first game!


Best of luck everybody!
Jimmy