FA Cup Underdog Treble

FA Cup Weekend - Let the dogs have their day!

Forget what Sky Sports will try and tell you as this coming weekend is the greatest football weekend of the year. The big clubs may not care about the FA Cup until the quarter finals but for many smaller clubs entering the First Round proper this will be the pinnacle of their achievements. The magic of the cup lives on for these teams and even after last nights win for Salford there will be further shocks, I can guarantee you of that!

The week leading up to the First Round is always filled with trepidation for the ‘big’ clubs and the build up has started badly for all the favoured teams. Each and every morning this week when the larger teams have drawn back their curtains they have been greeted by the sight of rain. Weather has such a big influence in these sorts of games as the greater hunger and desire is usually shown by the underdog. Fair weather and good pitch conditions helps retain the gap in technical ability but bad weather, like we have experienced of late, makes this First Round more of a lottery than the favoured clubs would like.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what factors you prioritise as important when trying to pick your way through the minefield that is betting the FA Cup. That is in general let alone the hardest round of all which is this one, the First Round proper.  There are probably three major factors I look for when attempting to locate a Cup upset and each of my selected games has at least one element, if not more, of those. They are:

1 – A manager or management team who the players really want to play for but desperately need a win

2 – The League team playing away from home who tend to be involved in low scoring nervous games

3 – A professional team with a poor recent away record on their travels at an up and coming non league club 

 

Despite this treble returning £77.63 for a £1 stake at William Hill I want to apologise. My initial plan was for all games to be played on Saturday so you could spend the winnings Saturday night but in the end I am going with my three strongest feelings looking at the card.  So with one game on Saturday and two games on Sunday where do we start………………

 

Stevenage Borough @ 7/2 home versus Gillingham 3pm Saturday kick off
Borough boss Teddy Sheringham has this week publicly stated that if he had started his managerial reign at a Premiership club with the same results as he has  at Stevenage then he would have been sacked. That might be true as last week they were humiliated 5-1 on home soil by promotion chasing Oxford. Sheringham is a likeable character and from what I can gather his players enjoy working with him. Maybe those words to the media was a calculated ploy from Sheringham to get his team up for this FA Cup tie.  Stevenage have scored in five straight games though and they host a Gillingham side who although lying third in Division One are just 3-2-3 on their travels this season. The home team have conceded in twelve straight games but the Gills defence is similarly porous as they have kept just one clean sheet in the last ten games. Stevenage seem to have too good of a squad to become embroiled in a relegation battle and are already twelve points off of the Play Off spots. Even this early in the season this looks as though it could be Stevenage’s last chance for some form of success this season and are Gillingham content to concentrate on promotion to the Championship? Get your brylcreem out ready to back Teddy’s Boys!

 

FC Halifax @ 5/1 home versus Wycombe Wanderers 2pm Sunday kick off
Many of you subscribers to my Stats Pack may be surprised that I am going against Wycombe in this game as I am high on them and their boss Gareth Ainsworth. The away team are a strong side on the road as they are set up and have conceded just three goals in seven away games this season. What a stupid selection then this is I hear you cry! Well these are the sorts of games where I see that kind of tactical set up to actually work against the league club. These are the games that the league club has to start fast, strong and physical so they take charge of the tie before the smaller club are able to gain a foothold. FA Cup First Round games are rarely won by tactics alone so as crazy as it seems the measured approach from Wanderers may work against them. Anyway have you ever been to the Shay (New or Old) on a wet and windy Sunday afternoon? It is character and heart that often wins the day over the pieces carefully arranged on the tactics board.

 

Maidstone @ 15/8 home versus Yeovil Town 2pm Sunday kick off

Away day journeys bring back memories for both players and supporters alike. If those memories are haunting then it often becomes a psychological problem for a team rather than an ability issue. This is what Yeovil face here as they have won just two of their last twenty one competitive matches on the road. Maidstone have an indifferent record at home so far this season as despite lying third in the Conference South they are just 4-0-3 at home. However, they have drawn just one of fourteen games and I am sure they would see any possible replay as a distraction, to their primary goal of promotion come next May. Yeovil have kept just two clean sheets all season and with the pressure on them here to deliver I can see them faltering even further in an already disappointing campaign. 

 

Remember folks the FA Cup is an absolute betting minefield so have some fun but do not expect to make any profit at all! Let us hope we get close or at least all three teams give us a real run for our money.

Speak tomorrow with another #GoalRush Sunday and my NFL column.

 

All the best
Jimmy