Morning
Folks
Is it
already Sunday again? The weeks certainly fly past in the NFL season and we
head into what looks a great weekend of action. There are three fantastic live
games on Sky this Sunday and then we have Monday Night Football. I am sure the
Chargers/Bears will still be on in my house, mainly as I have Josh Lambo Danny
Woodhead in my Fantasy Team, but it’s not an enticing match up. The huge swathe
of injuries last weekend makes this an even more intriguing week from a betting
perspective.
The
weekend kicked off with Cincinnati laying a beat down on the Johnny Manziel led
Cleveland Browns. Tyler Eiffert being in my opponents Fantasy Team this week
puts me behind the eight ball so I need a few of my players to go off majorly. Come
on Ted Ginn Jnr……….oh dear I hear you cry!
Packers @ Panthers +3
This will
be a fantastic early game for us Sky viewers (well those not fixated on the
RedZone anyway lol). Green Bay seem to be having issues with their receivers
getting open and this is not just a knee jerk reaction to last weeks loss at
Denver. It’s been happening a while now and here they give up points on the
road again to a team with a better run game and a better defense. At this price
point I will side with the Panthers as the value here.
Raiders @ Steelers -4 ½
This is a
tricky spot for the Raiders as they travel cross country off of the back of a
great win that has gained them huge plaudits in the media. The Jets were
terrible and although Le’veon Bell is out for the season I like Pittsburgh
here. The line opened minus six but has been bet down to minus four and a half.
DeAngelo Williams will be an adequate stand in for Bell and Ben Roethlisberger
will be an extra week healthier. Steelers for me in a let down spot for the
Raiders.
The
Titans fired Ken Wisenhunt in the week and was it a surprise as in his last 35
games as a NFL Headcoach he was 4-31. I am just surprised it didn’t happen
sooner! Interim coach Mike Malarkey has not got a huge amount of offensive
weapons to unleash on a Saints team who have found their swagger of late. Even
with a Rob Ryan defense on show for the Saints the total of 47.5 may go under,
incredible scenes in the Superdome. A very tricky call and one I am not
prepared to make.
Rams @ Vikings -1
Teddy
Bridgewater has not looked a great NFL quarterback in recent weeks and this
week the Vikings take on one of the elite NFL defenses as St Louis’ defensive
front is top notch. It is set to be very windy in Minneapolis today and this
will hinder the Vikings far more than St Louis and further hamper Bridgewater
in the passing game. The line opened Minnesota minus two and a half and the
line was quickly bet down to minus one. I really like the Rams here straight up
to physically overpower the home team, surely Mr 8-8 Jeff Fisher can go 5-3 and then mess it up. Blow out, blow out, blow out. Back door cover, back door cover, back door cover. Would you want to take on Jay Gruden with two weeks to prepare for a road game in New England……………probably! Either way there should be a lot of points this Sunday at Foxboro. I can see several scenarios to enable the overs to cash so I am all over it.
Fitzpatrick from the shotgun every snap? The line for this has moved all over the place from the open of -2.5 to -6 and up to this level of -8. Fitzpatrick is banged up and it is a ‘pain tolerance’ issue for him. What the Jets are basically saying is, are you a man Fitzy? Give me the Jags plus the points but there are a lot of unknowns going into this game. The point line has been driven up from 40 to 43 here and at this level I am not touching it.
This is the season for the Bills and they know it. They have also had two weeks to prepare for this game after that shambolic effect in London. Miami had a reality check last Thursday night as the Patriots laid the smack down to wannabe WWE character Dan Campbell. X’s and O’s aren’t big Dan’s strength and he I can see him getting out schemed by Rex Ryan, who although he is over rated, can at least a coach an NFL team. Get ready to return to the squared circle Dan and lay the points with the Bills.
Falcons @ 49ers +7
The
Blaine Gabbert era begins in San Francisco. I always try and give quarterbacks
a second chance in life as they are often a victim of the environment they are
thrust into when they are drafted. Normally they are crap teams with limited
resources such as Gabbert in Jacksonville. I expect Atlanta to win but I can’t
participate in this from a wagering perspective on the match market. I lean to
the overs though as I am sure the 49ers offensive unit will be more invigorated
without Kaepernick under centre.
Giants @ Buccaneers +2.5
I dread
to think what Odell Beckham Jnr may do to the dreadful Buccaneers defensive
gameplan of sitting off and allowing receptions. The Giants defense is
regressing after a decent start to the season and early this week I loved the
over at 48. I still like it but it has ticked up a point and a half and the
weather could turn stormy in Tampa. In view of this I will play smaller over
stakes than I want to bet but still the over is the side to take.
Broncos @ Colts +5.5
If Andrew
Luck appeared uncertain last week against Carolina I am not sure what this
Denver defense will do to him this week. That said they are back in the dome in
Indianapolis (although they will probably open the roof) and if this line
continues to climb, it opened at three, and gets to six and a half then I will
take the Colts. Andrew Luck 8-0 ATS as a home dog! At the present level though I
am leaving this one alone.Eagles @ Cowboys +3
The Eagles play quickly and the Cowboys can’t get a first down so each team might get thirty possessions in this game! The Eagles defense is sneaky good and I am convinced that their offense will find a way to score twenty points. Lay the points with the road favourite. A side note here, it will be interesting to see the reception Greg Hardy gets today from the home fans. As silly as it sounds I think this could affect Dallas. Eagles all day for me here.
Cutler without Forte take to the road
and visit a Chargers side led by Rivers without Allen in a horrible game to try and work out. In these
circumstances I will always put the points in my back pocket. Back John Fox to
keep the Bears in the game long enough to cash any ticket that gives you over a
field goal.
My season
long under/over win total bets currently stand as below:
Tennessee
Titans - under 5.5 wins and currently 1-6
Washington
Redskins - under 6.5 wins and currently 3-4
New
Orleans Saints - under 8.5 wins and currently 4-4Arizona Cardinals - over 8.5 wins and currently 6-2
St Louis
Rams - under 7.5 wins and currently 4-3
North Baltimore Ravens @ 13/8 – endured a horrid
season, a bet to forget at 2-6.
South Houston Texans @ 9/2 – somehow still in the
race at 3-5 in the worst division in football
East Buffalo Bills @ 13/2 - currently sat at 3-4
and in the Pats division it is a Play Off berth at very best for them
West Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1 – were unable to
split a tough opening schedule and sit at 3-5 despite winning their last two.
North Green Bay
Packers @ 4/9 – Rodgers is finding it hard but they top the division at 6-1.
South Atlanta Falcons @ 9/4 – cracks are beginning
to show but they still hang on to the Panthers coat tails a game out of first
place at 6-2.
East Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 – sit a game back
at 3-4 behind the Giants but I still believe they will win this division.
West Seattle Seahawks @ 4/11 – two games behind the
Cardinals but they welcome Arizona to the home of the 12th man after
this weeks bye.
Finally
on to my SuperContest just for fun picks. After last Monday's miraculous cover
from the Colts we now stand at 24-16. I can handle a 60% return but prefer
regular 3-2 weeks. Let’s see what this week brings and I am confident of these
returning a positive week:
Bills -3
Eagles
-2.5
Rams +1.5
Steelers
-4
Patriots
-13.5
Good luck
with all your bets this Sunday and make it a winning weekend!
Jimmy
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