Goal Rush Weekend
Hello all
and welcome to the next instalment of the Goal Rush. Yes I know I am a day early but I am out of town tomorrow and Saturday so I was up burning the midnight oil early in the week so I can deliver you the same level of work as usual. After our profitable Tuesday
night we currently stand as per below:
Over 1.5
goals 57-8
Over 2.5
goals 41-24
Over 3.5
goals 23-42
Yes on
BTTS 41-24
Home wins
32 Draws 10 Away wins 23
I received
some tongue in cheek comments in midweek about the Peterborough/Barnsley being
an obvious bet to land an over 2.5 goal bet. In many ways it was a very obvious
bet as the goal trends pointed strongly to the game seeing many goals but it is
all to do with price. If the game had been priced up at 1.5 to go over the goal
line then we would not have dived in but until they are priced correctly we
will continue to bet. Other leagues such as Belgium and Holland where we see similarly
strong trends such as these regularly see prices of 4/9 or below on overs bets
hitting. I think the English bookmakers are slow to react to English teams outside
of the Premiership who see strong goal trends. Scunthorpe have a stronger
tendency to go under the 2.5 goal mark as they are just 11-8 to the overs but
Peterborough are a strong 14-5 to overs and a staggering 19-0 to the over 1.5
goal line. This suggests that there will be almost certainly least two goals so
I really cannot understand why this is priced at a higher level than the
midweek game for the Posh. Surely the trend in their games has just got
stronger? Overs!
We head
back to Austria this weekend as after the easy land of a bet last Saturday
there are further opportunities in the land of classical music and skiing. Every team bar one in the ten team Bundesliga
average over 2.5 goals in their games and the historical meetings of the teams
are littered with goals. Ironically it is the home side who are seeing their
games average just 2.06 goals per game but that is why we get this juicy price
of Even Money on the over 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 6-3 in the last nine
meetings of the sides and Admira Wacker perform well in this spot this season.
Wolfsberger are bottom of the table and Wacker have scored seventeen goals in
nine games against bottom half teams. Despite their low scoring exploits over
the full season Wolfsberger have scored in four straight home games and twice
in each of their last two on home soil. Wacker have drawn three games in a row
by a scoreline of 1-1 and that run cannot continue forever and will see this as
an excellent chance to move back towards the top three. At Even Money the over
2.5 goals offers some good risk/reward.
European
football followers know the defences of Dutch teams have been incredibly poor
this season. Matches in the Eredivisie are averaging 3.04 goals per game with
both of these teams seeing an average of over 2.5 goals in their games. When
these two teams square off against each other goals literally explode at all
angles. Since September 2007 the sides have met twelve times and only once has
there not been at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 7-5. More
importantly the last four head to heads have seen Yes on BTTS land and a total
of nineteen goals. Over 2.5 goals is 6-1 in both teams’ last seven games and I
see no reason for this strong trend to change here. I am sure if you shop
around you will be able to get a price somewhere towards 1.7 as I think this is
a great opportunity. Usually I would maybe swerve away from a relatively low
price but in a league where goals flow openly I think this is one of the best
bets in that league this weekend. Given the fact other games with similar trends are priced as low
as 1.35 then we will be made to work hard to get the best price available but the hard work should be worth it.
Here’s to
another profitable Saturday as hopefully we go at least 2-1. Please remember folks
that yes we have had a good run in the past week or so but runs will always
come to an end at some point. Stake responsibly.
Jimmy
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