The winter break is kicking in now in a few countries across Europe and that is dramatically reducing the amount of games that we can assess on a weekly basis. However, there were no shortage of candidates straining at the leash to make this weekends final four, crikey I sound like Big Simon on the XFactor!
Over 0.5 goals 75-1
Over 1.5 goals 66-10
Over 2.5 goals 49-27
Over 3.5 goals 28-48
Yes on BTTS 45-31
Home wins 38 Draws 11 Away wins 27
This weekend we have three games on Saturday and a game this Friday evening. Three of the matches are priced around that 1.7 mark but the other game is a whopping price. I tried in vain to not select the game because as the price suggests it is less likely to happen than the other results. However, the historical and situational trends were so incredibly strong that at the current market price we cannot ignore it!
So where Mr Ukbettingpro I hear you ask are we off first on Friday evening........
Schalke v Hoffenheim @ 7/10 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time
The German Bundesliga is one of the highest scoring leagues in Europe averaging 2.85 goals per game so far this season. There has always been goals when these two sides meet with over 2.5 goals going 7-1 in the last eight Bundesliga meetings of the teams. In fact the over 2.5 goals is on a 6-0 run and I think it's set to continue here. Lowly Hoffenheim are a poor 0-2-6 when playing top half opposition but they do score games in this spot. The nine goals they have amassed in the spot has ensured a 6-2 Yes on BTTS record and given the fact we are confident that Schalke will score at least once, more than likely twice, I see this as getting our weekend off to the perfect start.
Everton v Leicester @ 7/10 English Premiership, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
If I'd have been asked off of the top of my head which game across all of the European top flight this weekend would be a candidate for the Goal Rush then I'd have said this game. Both teams play an open and attractive style and I'm not sure either backline can be trusted to keep a clean sheet. This game will be played at a frenetic breakneck speed and I think it will be the most attractive game of the weekend. Over 2.5 goals is a combined 21-11 this season for the teams and I see that only extending to 23-11 when the final whistle is blown come late Saturday afternoon.
Bastia v Reims @ 6/4 French Ligue 1, 7pm UK Kick Off Time
This is game with the big juicy price that I alluded to in our intro. At face value, for a couple of reasons, this would seem a strange selection. The French top flight is one of the lower scoring leagues across Western Europe as games are averaging just 2.41 goals per game so far this season. Drilling down further into the teams' season long records also gives the reasons why this is a juicy price. Both teams are 10-8 to the under 2.5 goals this season, so why do we like it so much? At face value stats can often be misleading as yes overall those stats point to unders being a justified favourite. However, Bastia are 6-3 to over 2.5 goals on home soil with Reims being 5-3 to over 2.5 goals on their travels in the 2015-16 campaign. When comparing recent head to results the trends towards goals is also very strong with over 2.5 goals going 5-1 in the last six meetings of the teams with each of those six games seeing at least two goals. Given all of those factors I see the current market price as well worth the risk involved so will go with the over 2.5 goals.
Oud Heverlee v Mechelen @ 8/11 Belgian Pro League, 730pm UK Kick Off Time
The seemingly reliable Belgian Pro League gives us our final Goal Rush game this Saturday. The home side are struggling as they are already six points adrift of safety in second to bottom place in the league table. Mechelen won the first meeting of the teams 2-1 back in August and historically there have been goals when these sides. Over 2.5 goals has gone 6-1 in the seven meetings of the sides since August 2011 and situationally this season the trends point to goals. Both of these teams reside in the bottom half of the table and when they take on fellow bottom half foes both teams see an average of over three goals in the spot. Overs people and let's hope those goal friendly Belgians are as reliable as usual!
Hopefully we have at least a 3-1 weekend and who knows, dare we dream of a 4-0 performance?
The Goal Rush column is a very time consuming task for me to undertake thoroughly (as I would not do it any other way) and the festive season is here. I cannot promise that there will be selections posted over the next two weeks as I am unsure of my own and my family movements in that time. I may be here but I may not be so I would though like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your tremendous support and encouragement in this inaugural season. I hope you have managed to make some decent returns and as we move forward together hopefully further study and refinements can make this even more profitable.
All the best and I will be back on Sunday with NFL thoughts but if you're not into the gridiron sport I would like to sh you all a very Merry Christmas and a safe and peaceful New Year.
Jimmy
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