The Goal Rush
Welcome to my first weekend Goal Rush column where we look at the goals market throughout Europe and look to try and pinpoint some value bets.
Predicting the amount of goals in a game is not an exact science but over the past few years the amount of liquidity in these markets has greatly increased. Wherever you find good levels of liquidity then value can be find if sufficient research is undertaken. This weekly column will hopefully assist your betting for the weekend by doing a lot of the leg work for you.
I have a criteria that must be hit for a particular match to qualify for further more in depth analysis. Extra research is then undertaken to see if the individual team match ups are favourable for a 'rush' of goals.
The analysis tends to be most accurate after about 4/5 games of a domestic season so don't expect to see games from the big leagues of Europe until early September at the earliest. However, with many leagues well underway there are plenty of games to be scrutinised and I have highlighted two below that are worth consideration.
Liepaja v Spartakas - Latvia Saturday 4pm UK time
Welcome to my first weekend Goal Rush column where we look at the goals market throughout Europe and look to try and pinpoint some value bets.
Predicting the amount of goals in a game is not an exact science but over the past few years the amount of liquidity in these markets has greatly increased. Wherever you find good levels of liquidity then value can be find if sufficient research is undertaken. This weekly column will hopefully assist your betting for the weekend by doing a lot of the leg work for you.
I have a criteria that must be hit for a particular match to qualify for further more in depth analysis. Extra research is then undertaken to see if the individual team match ups are favourable for a 'rush' of goals.
The analysis tends to be most accurate after about 4/5 games of a domestic season so don't expect to see games from the big leagues of Europe until early September at the earliest. However, with many leagues well underway there are plenty of games to be scrutinised and I have highlighted two below that are worth consideration.
Liepaja v Spartakas - Latvia Saturday 4pm UK time
The small Daugava Stadium in Liepaja, Latvia is the venue for this Virsliga clash between the league leading hosts and mid table (well fifth out of eight) Spartaks. Despite the home team being top of the league they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine games. Whilst the visitors are not the most free scoring on their travels they have found the net in five of their seven away games this campaign. When the sides met at Spartaks at the end of May it finished in a victory for Liepaja but their opening meeting at this very stadium back in March ended goalless. The markets in these more obscure leagues around Europe tend to have larger over rounds and at present I still cannot see the game priced up. I would be interested though in both Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. However, given the fact that Spartakas have yet to find the back of Liepaja's net this season I'd want at least odds of 1.75 in either market before I'd think of getting involved.
New England v Toronto - MLS Sunday 12.30am UK time
Fifth placed New England host fourth placed Toronto in what should be an exciting Easter Conference matchup at Gillette Stadium this Saturday. We look set for a potential avalanche of goals with New England fancied by the bookmakers to take all three points. Although home advantage is strong in MLS football this is one of the shorter trips for a road team. The price on the home side seems more to do with the inability of away team to keep it tight away from home. Just two clean sheets for Toronto on the road whilst in five of twelve road games they have conceded three or more goals. The 4-3-5 Toronto away record has seen a total of 45 goals whilst although New England's home games have seen a lot less, 24 in 11, it is easy to make a case for both teams finding the net. With 3/4 on offer at BetVictor for over 2.5 goals I see this as a very good option this weekend.
Disclaimer - I have been studying the goal markets for around eighteen months now so obviously trends will continue to evolve. Please bet responsibly and remember that the season is a marathon and not a sprint. Be sensible with your staking so whatever the results are this weekend you ensure your bankroll lives to fight another day.
