NFL Sunday

NFL Week Three

Well this season is already into Week Three and sometimes you wonder where the time goes! The Giants finally got their first win on Thursday night when they beat a Washington side who went into the game with great hope of gaining victory. That division is certainly up in the air as with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a number of weeks the 2-0 Dallas Cowboys look a vulnerable divisional leader.

In the SuperContest my picks are 6-4 which would see me around mid table with three participants standing at an incredible 10-0. My picks this week are below and please remember these lines are set on a Wednesday and do not move at all:

Panthers -4.5

Seahawks -14.5

Ravens -2.5

Colts -3

Cardinals -6.5

As you will see there are some pretty square picks in there this week but I am feeling kinda square today!  Anyway moving on to the games for this weekend.

Steelers @ Rams Pk
Jeff Fisher will have his side pumped up for this and it will be interesting to see how the immobile Big Ben copes with the Rams defensive line. Lev Bell is back for Pittsburgh but he may not play all the snaps in his first game back. If I see a number south of 50 in the points total in Steeler games, 47 in this one, I will back the overs almost blindly until I lose. Hit me on the overs.


Chargers @ Vikings -2.5
This is a trap as I want to take the Vikings here! This is the second west to east coast trip in seven days for the Chargers. I’m surprised to see this point line at just 44 as I feel there will be some scoring here. The fact that Adrian Peterson may have a big game might have made the oddsmakers lower the total as the clock may be bled. Both teams should move the ball well though so give me some of the overs.


Buccaneers @ Texans -6.5
I’m not overly keen on laying the points here but Houston should win this match. The Buccs are, in my opinion, more like their first week performance against the Titans than that win last time out over the Saints. The fact that DeAndre Hopkins looks set to play in the game makes me a little less nervous about backing the home team. 


Eagles @ Jets -2
This line has swung around five points since it opened and that has all been on what your eyes have seen so far this season.  Can the Eagles really go 0-3 with the genius Chip Kelly in charge? Maybe and maybe not. I know for sure I will not be betting in this game!


Saints @ Panthers -8
The injury to Drew Brees has swung this line five points but I still like the home team. New Orleans were struggling to move the ball before Brees was ruled out and this tough Panthers defense should easily shut down the Saints’ putrid looking offense.  


Jaguars @ Patriots -13.5
Bill Belichick does not care about the spread. Bill Belichick does not care about the spread. Keep repeating this to yourself before you make a bet on either side in the match market this Sunday. The week before the bye though Bill will not ease off so give me some of the over 47.5 on the goal line as my favourite point line bet of the week.


Bengals @ Ravens -2.5
It's make or break week for the Ravens as they cannot recover from a 0-3 start in this division. I trust Baltimore in big spots to deliver so take them here favoured by less than a field goal.  Anyway, Andy Dalton is always terrible against divisional opponents!


Raiders @ Browns -3.5
McCown is back for the Browns and it seems the Brownies will look to play solid risk free football and put it on their defense. The Raiders will look to air it out a bit more with their improved offense.  What I will say to those imploring for Johnny Football is that McCown drove the Browns the full length of the field in his one drive against the Jets. How did Andrew Luck do against that same defense? A slight lean to the Browns.


Colts @ Titans +3
Home dog by three or more points is traditionally where the professionals make their money. On both sides of the ball Indianapolis are under pressure up front. It is a square pick but I trust Andrew Luck in this spot far more than Super Mario. In fact I sense a double digit victory for Indianapolis and Frank Gore to get into the end zone a couple of times.

Falcons @ Cowboys +1
The Cowboys need to put this on their offensive line and shorten this game. The big boys up front can certainly do it but the JerryDome is not a hostile environment and Matt Ryan has some weapons. Give me Atlanta and the over 44.5.


49ers @ Cardinals -6.5
The level of the 49ers is probably somewhere in between the two performances they've put in so far this season. It has to be Arizona or pass for me here and I just about trust Arians and Palmer on this line.

Bears @ Seahawks -14.5
Jimmy Clausen on the road against a Seahawks defense with Kam Chancellor back (notice how he did not come back to take on Rodgers last week? Even at this big line I lean heavily to Seattle as at 0-2 the margin and manner of victory is as important as the win itself. Cannot believe I am saying this but even -14.5 this is my favourite match market bet f the day.

Bills @ Dolphins -3
Bad weather come into this game and if it does I would trust the Bills and Rex Ryan far more than this Philbin led Dolphins team.  Seemingly you can run all over this Dolphins defense and who better to take advantage of this is than this Bills rushing offense. Bills!

Broncos @ Lions +3
Stafford is banged up and I am not sure how Detroit will move the ball against this stout Denver defense. The homely indoor surroundings of Detroit’s dome will also be to Peyton Manning’s liking but I am not sure I can trust them laying points on the road if they are reliant on their defense. Pass for me.

Chiefs @ Packers -6.5
At this line of six and a half I will pass but the money may come for the Packers and drive this number up to seven. If it does I'd be tempted to have a piece of the dog. I like the overs though in most prime time games at Lambeau at any number under 50 so with this set at 49 I will have a bit of the overs in hope of a shootout.

 Best of luck with your bets today folks!

Jimmy

Goal Rush Saturday

The Goal Rush Weekend

16-6 is where we are at as we head to the end of September. If you'd offered me that at the beginning of the season then I would have snapped your hand off. So despite coming into this weekend on the back of that loss last Sunday I think we should be happy with the showings so far. Where in this fine world are we headed this weekend I hear you ask. Well here we go and it is a BUMPER Saturday with no fewer than five bets!


Swindon v Colchester, England Division One kick off 3pm UK Time
Both matches last season finished in goal scoring draws, 1-1 in Essex and this game finished two apiece. In this spot, Swindon at home and Colchester away, there have been 30 total goals over the clubs' eight games so far this campaign as both teams are 1-1-2. Colchester have scored at least two goals in each of their last four games and both sides have kept just one clean sheet all campaign. Give me the overs to cash!

Barnsley v Gillingham, England Division One kick off 3pm UK Time 10/11
Barnsley did the double last season as a 1-0 win in Kent back in February followed up a 4-1 win for the Yorkshiremen on home soil last August. Yes on BTTS is 4-0 when Gillingham take to the road and Barnsley and the Tykes have conceded seven goals in their last four games. At this market price I do like the over 2.5 goals to land us another winner.

　

Beveren v Gent, Belgium Pro League kick off 5pm UK Time

It was 1-0 to Gent in Beveren when the sides last met but prior to that the last seven meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals, the three before that all cashing Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Games in the Belgian league are averaging 2.7 goals per game so far this season. With 18 goals having gone in during Beveren home matches so far this season take this game to revert to type and go over 2.5 goals.

KS Cracovia v Ruch Chorzow, Poland Ekstraklasa kick off 5 pm UK Time
There have been seven straight home wins when these sides have met with five cashing an over 2.5 goal bet. The sides' seven games in this spot this season have combined for 22 total goals. Each of Chorzow's away games this season has gone over and there have been at least two goals in Cracovia's home matches.

　

Bastia v Toulouse, France Ligue 1 kick off 6pm UK Time

Bastia have scored in four straight meetings of the sides but both games last season saw an under 2.5 goal ticket cash. Only one of the teams' fourteen games this season has seen less than two goals. In this spot over 2.5 goals has gone 4-2, including 3-0 in Bastia home games, yet the market price obtainable here is around the 6/4 mark. The more cautious amongst you will obviously take the over on a 2.25 line!


So far the stats for the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 19-3
Over 2.5 goals 16-6
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6 and 7
BTTS 16-6 to the Yes
14 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins


This will be an interesting Saturday where we will further see exactly what we have here with the GoalRush 15/16.


All the best
Jimmy

Sunday Goal Rush

Sunday Goal Rush

Good morning ‘Team Goals’. Hope we are all enjoying a lazy Sunday and resting up ahead of what I am sure will be another tough work week for us all! The past five bets put forward, thankfully all winners, were priced 4/5 or greater but today we are looking at one that is a little bit shorter of a bet, currently available around the 1.67 mark on the Exchanges.

Stuttgart v Schalke , 230pm kick off UK Time

The last eight meetings of the sides have hit the over 2.5 goal mark with Yes on BTTS going 5-3. In fact over 2.5 goals is 16-3 in their last nineteen meetings since May 2006. Although it is still early in the season both sides are averaging over 2.5 goals per game with Stuttgart actually averaging over 4 goals per match. Despite losing all four games this campaign the home team have managed to find the net in each of their games. Schalke won 3-0 away to Werder Bremen and lost by the same scoreline in Wolfsburg so both of their away games this season have hit an overs bet. The Bundesliga is the highest scoring of the major high profile European domestic leagues seeing an average of 2.83 goals per game so far this season.

So far the stats for the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 19-2
Over 2.5 goals 16-5
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6 and 7
BTTS 16-5 to the Yes
14 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins

Home wins are hitting at a rate of 66% on the above so although it is early days you have to think that any game where you can get the home team over 6/4needs to be considered. Stuttgart are priced around 17/10 for this game and Bundesliga home wins are currently hitting 43%. I am not suggesting you should back them I thought it was worth mentioning their price given the fact that they hit the criteria to score at least once and are priced nicely.

Anyway, be off with you folks and enjoy your Sunday dinner!

Best of luck with your football and NFL bets today and speak soon.

All the best

Jimmy

NFL Week Two

Texans @ Panthers -3  It's a brave man who lays points with this pretty tepid looking Panthers offense against any side half capable. I lean heavily towards the Texans especially if the Panthers' defensive leader Luke Keuchly is ruled out of this game.
Buccaneers @ Saints -10  Having watched Drew Brees on the road you'd not want to be laying this many points. The Buccs are that bad though and as Lovie Smith continues to arrange his cast of failed Chicago Bears defensive players the future doesn't look bright. One to swerve for me!
49ers @ Steelers -6  This could be a very dangerous game for the well fancied Steelers. The 49ers will be looking to move and role out Colin Kaerpernick at every opportunity and I am not sure this weak Steelers defensive can cope. I like San Fran on this line and to be honest the Money Line bet on them appeals to me! My only concern is that this is a short week for the 49ers following that MNF win.
Lions @ Vikings -3  There has been some money on the Lions this week but is that more to do with an over reaction against Minnesota? The sexy pick for the summer were blasted on the west coast on Monday night.
Patriots @ Bills +1  This is my favourite game of the day……to watch! The Pats are 26-3 of late against the Bills but I sense that Buffalo and Rex Ryan have some tricks up their sleeves for this one. A game to watch and enjoy but even though I lean to the Bills that Belichick/Brady record against them puts me off betting in this game.
Cardinals @ Bears +2 John Fox showed last week that he will use Matt Forte in a more traditional way on the ground this season and the Cardinals are a team who grind the opposition down. Loving the under 46.5 points in this one!
Titans @ Browns +1.5   Well I loved the Brownies in this one if Josh McCown plays as under him they moved the ball effectively last week in New York. However, it is another dose of Manziel on offer for us today. Mariota was up against Tampa Bay and I want to see him do it on the road in a hostile environment against a decent defense. Browns tentatively for me.
Chargers @ Bengals -3.5  West coast team headed east coast for an early start but I think I stood in Caesars Palace a couple of years ago and watched the Chargers in the same time slot hand a play off loss to their hosts. At first glance I think this line should be set at 5 but then I remember Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton are involved for the Bengals...............pass!
Rams @ Washington +3  Another game where I really like the unders. Both teams have far stronger defenses than their offensives that will be on show. This will be a tough hard fought and low scoring game so give me the unders on the point line of 42 as my favourite points bet of the week.
Falcons @ Giants -2.5  I can't take this GMen defense to stop the Falcons offense this Sunday. The Falcons' D under new head coach Dan Quinn look stouter and they surely must be able to get one more stop than New York can.
Ravens @ Raiders +6  Laying six points for this impotent looking Ravens side is a risk but Oakland looked so poor last Sunday. This is a trap that I am not going to fall into, passing this game completely!
Dolphins @ Jaguars +6  As per the above!
Cowboys @ Eagles -5  Last week the Eagles' defense certainly looked like it will be a formidable unit this season with several big plays driving the Falcons back behind the line of scrimmage. This running back by committee approach of the Cowboys may struggle and if they get behind the down and distance without Dez Bryant to call on they will struggle.  Eagles for me but I am not sure this will go over the point total of 55.
Seahawks @ Packers -3.5 Another week without Kam Chancellor means I cannot take the Hawks here so I lean towards the home team in the big Sunday Night Football.

Jets @ Colts -7  This line opened at Colts -10 so what we saw last weekend has shifted this line three points. The Jets will look to ground and pound, shorten the game and keep it tight. This line looks set around spot on so I will keep away from that and just go to the over 46.5 points.

Goal Rush Friday

Goal Rush

Friday


Morning all and I have to firstly apologise to you all. It's been a very hectic week this week so the amount of games I have been able to analyse closely for this Saturday has been limited. The matches I have looked at though have obviously received my full attention but as such there are just two selections for this Saturday.

So far the stats for the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 17-2
Over 2.5 goals 14-5
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6and 6
BTTS 14-5 to the Yes
12 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins


Mlada Boleslav v Teplice, Czech Republic, 615pm kick off UK Time
BTTS has cashed four straight times when these meet with a total of fourteen goals in those four matches. The twelve games the sides have played so far this season has seen a total of forty seven goals. At this price I sense the over 2.5 goal price of a shade under evens is incredible value. As I am no expert in this league though I cannot say it's a maximum bet but at first glance it looks the proverbial dogs b's.


Colchester v Gillingham, 3pm kick off UK Time
The last four total meetings of the sides gone over with BTTS 3-1. Overs are 6-1 in Colchester games this season and over 3.5 goals are 5-2. Despite overs only going 1-2 in Gillingham away games this campaign each match has seen at least two goals. In fact even though they are placed nineteenth in the table Colchester have scored more goals than third placed Burton! With the propensity for this Colchester side to see goals go in at both ends this should be an exciting game.


Depending on workloads I plan to be back on Sunday with some more thoughts but until then, be lucky everybody!

Jimmy

NFL Weekend Review

Weekend NFL Review

Over my years of watching the NFL if I have learnt one thing then I have learnt not to over react to what I see the very first weekend of the year. There were some really great games on show and despite not wanting to over react there were many takeaways from the Sunday offerings.

Each week the aim of this column is to give my thoughts on three of the games from the weekend where we can look to profit moving forward.

The main game on Sky saw the Bears welcome the Packers to Soldier Field and the Cheeseheads were able to win and cover against their hosts. This though was not like the two defeats the Packers handed to the Bears last season as this Chicago team under coach Fox looks set to battle and scrap. The more traditional usage of Matt Forte via the run game, as opposed to the short screens of last year, should keep them in games and ensure the clock keeps running. At first glance the under would appeal to me greatly this weekend when they host Arizona.

Marcus Mariota exploded into life as he became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw four TD passes in the first half of his NFL debut. This week he travels to Cleveland to take on what at first glance looks a hapless Browns team who were spanked 31-10 in New York. Having watched the game back though Cleveland matched the Jets for long periods and the 'Dog Pound' will be noisy for this first home game of the season. Yes Mariota won in Tampa but travelling to a more traditional hot bed of football in Ohio and against a far better defence will be a much stiffer test for him. The public love will all be for the rookie and against Cleveland. There could be some value with the home dog.

Knowing how to win games is the most important trait any NFL Headcoach can have. In some ways it sounds ridiculous when you try and articulate that to people as it sounds so bleeding obvious. However, some coaches get teams in good positions and then struggle to get them over the finishing line. You could never accuse Arizona Cardinals Headcoach Bruce Arians of not knowing how to win games. Last season he masterminded an 11-5 record in the toughest division in football basically without a quarterback for the last half of the season! With Carson Palmer now back from injury they are in a good place moving forward. I will caveat all of this though with the fact that knowing how to win games is different to helping you win bets if you have to lay points. I will be very cautious of suggesting laying more than a field goal with them as the saying goes in the NFL "just win baby". Yes they won by twelve at the weekend but I am not sure this team will destroy inferior opponents.

I went 3-2 with my 'just for fun' Supercontest picks whilst there are 64 of real contestants who went 5-0!


Hope some of this is of some use to you and feel free to hit me up @ukbettingpro


All the best
Jimmy

Weekend Football Review

Weekend Football Review
The major talking point was Chelsea losing once more. For bettors they have been an absolute nightmare so far this season as they have won just one of their first five games. Even that victory away to West Brom was a hard earned 3-2 victory which only resulted in a push for any handicap bettors who supported them.

The big game of the weekend at Old Trafford exploded into life and rewarded us over 2.25 goal backers. Liverpool seem to be a team that cannot get out of their own way at present. They look very neat and tidy but unless they can win a game 1-0 they look destined to struggle to put teams away on a regular basis. The long anticipated return of Daniel Sturridge can not come a day too soon for the Anfield faithful.

A big smile was wiped off of my face at around 545pm yesterday as once again Leicester proved me incorrect. Pre season I liked them for relegation at 4/1 and for a bottom half finish at 2/7 and maybe it's too early to write the latter off the former does not look value now as they sit second in the league!

Early Season Trends

Manchester City have won their first five games to nil but none of the wins have seen them score four times

Arsenal and Tottenham, two traditionally high scoring teams are both 4-1 to the under 2.5 goals

Chelsea are a historically tight team under Jose but they are 5-0 to the over 2.5 goals

Watford have seen just one total goal scored in their three home games so far this season

Leicester home games have seen thirteen total goals, 3-0 to the over 2.5 goals

Stats Packs subscribers had a very up and down weekend as once again our Main Bets lost as ended the week roughly 50:50. The margins between the stated best bets and the rest of the selections in this league is always so marginal which is why I always suggest a spread of bets throughout the division. Long term investors are still well ahead though and over the course of a season such frustrating runs do occur.

Goal Rush supporters licked their lips at the prospect of three bets on Saturday afternoon. All three wagers cashed winning tickets as we progressed to 14-5 for the season. There were about 20 matches across Europe that hit my criteria for further research. To narrow it down to three winning selections is showing either good fortune or good further analysis is being undertaken. Once again I think it is far too early to tell which it is but I'd far rather be 14-5 than 5-14!

We have a Monday Night Football tonight with West Ham hosting Newcastle at Upton Park.  Under 2.5 goals has gone 5-1 over the last six meetings and it was two home wins to nil when the sides met last term. Both sides are fairly middle of the road clubs who do not travel overly well. West Ham have burnt bettors already this season on this -0.25 line at home so I am keeping away. Give me the under 2.5 goals as my favoured bet here.

NFL Weekend Review will come tomorrow and lots to talk about there!

All the best and good luck with your bets

Jimmy

NFL Sunday Week One

NFL Week One

Yes the season started on Thursday evening when the Patriots beat the Steelers 28-21 but today is the day that all NFL fans circle in their calendar, opening Sunday!

As always there looks to be some good opportunities on opening day but you know this is one of the most unpredictable sports there can be. So always tread with caution and ensure you have some bankroll left for next week.

Packers @ Bears +7  – to lay seven points on the road away to a divisional opponent is big. Especially when you have lost your number one wide receiver through injury and there are injury concerns on your number two wide receiver. However, the Packers are the only team you can consider backing in this game. I expect a big game for Lacy on the ground and Adams through the air for the Packers. Chicago need to drag out the game, win the time of possession battle and run the ball. I can’t see them doing it enough though to keep it close.

Chiefs @ Texans Pk – this is a real difficult game to call as the line suggests. I like Kansas City to challenge for their divisional crown this season but I just have a feeling that the Texans will do just enough in this one. Not a strong suggestion though.

Browns @ Jets -3.5  - Earlier in the week I really like the under 40 points and it has since been bet down to 39.5 points. I will still take a healthy chunk of that as I am not sure how I see the Browns moving the ball and 17 points may be enough for the Jets to take this game. Under 39.5 points is my favoured points bet of the week.

Colts @ Bills +3  – Tyrod Taylor v Andrew Luck, is it a contest? That’s why football is a team game and I do think that Taylor’s mobility will cause this Colts defense some issues. Add in the threat of McCoy and Rex Ryan will have some trickery in mind to keep the Colts off the field. I am going to call this one and say the Bills get this done Straight Up.

Dolphins @ Washington +3.5  – not sure what angle you can take to side with the home dog here, it’s the Dolphins or pass.

Panthers @ Jaguars +3  – The Jags look set to be improved this season and I have deep concerns about the Panthers offense. If you can get three points on a home dog against a side who may struggle to move the ball then take them all day!

Seahawks @ Rams +4  – as per the above, how are the Rams going to move the ball? Not sure I can lay the four points but if you’re doing a Straight Up accumulator then I can trust them enough to put them in there.

Saints @ Cardinals -2.5  – my favourite bet of the weekend. I am all over the Cardinals in this one. A strong defense should slow down the Saints offense and this New Orleans defense looks set to struggle once more. Cardinals ATS is my best bet of the week.

Lions @ Chargers -3 – I lean towards the Chargers here but with no real conviction. I sense good things could happen in San Diego but want to see them first before I put my hard earned cash on the line with them. Detroit, well who knows which Lions team will travel to the west coast?

Titans @ Buccaneers -3 – the battle of the Number One and Two draft picks. Even with the potential for Mike Evans to be out for the Buccs I just think they will be able to move the ball a bit better than Tennessee. Give me the Buccs to squeak out a low scoring game.

Bengals @ Raiders +3 – Andy Dalton travelling west giving up points……rather you than me backing that one! Oakland should improve this season and I will be very interested to see how DerekCarr links with new wide receiver Amari Cooper. I want to back the Raiders here receiving points but I just can’t do it…..!

Ravens @ Broncos -5 – the Broncos defense could be the nit that carries them to glory this season rather than the ageing Peyton Manning.  There could be value with the road dog here receiving five points as this could be a much lower scoring game than the points line of 48.5 suggests. Give me some of the under.

Giants @ Cowboys -6 - the Giants look in a state of disarray to me so even though this is a divisional opponent and they know Dallas so well I just cannot consider backing them plus six points. In fact I think I can just about trust the Cowboys, even at this line, as I sense their offensive line will push the GMen around all night. Cowboys to win by double digits.

Eagles @ Falcons +3 – the Eagles look set for another decent season but I am not sure they should be so strongly favoured for this game. Perhaps the oddsmakers believe the artificial environment within the dome in Georgia will help their timing based offense even more. The points line is set at 56 and even at that line I lean towards the over.

Vikings @ 49ers +2.5 – a few months ago this line opened San Fran -3.5 so that is a full six points shift. I think the value has gone but am not rushing to back the 49ers given the issues they have experienced since the end of last season.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the first weekend, it’s going to be great!

All the best

Jimmy

Manchester United v Liverpool

Manchester United v Liverpool – Live on Sky Sports 530pm UK Time 

The two biggest rivals in English football meet at Old Trafford for an early evening clash of the titans live on Sky Sports. For teams who currently lie 5^th and 7^th in the table there is a lot of doom and gloom surrounding both camps as we head into this game.  

Signing a player for £36m seems to have only depressed United fans as they seem to believe they have been ripped off over the transfer fee and shown their hierarchy up as being naïve and desperate. The pressure has already been taken off of Anthony Martial though as Louis van Gaal has publicly stated that Martial has been purchased for his successor.  Liverpool come into this game on the back of that home defeat at the hands of West Ham which was the Hammers’ first win at Anfield since 1963. It was not necessarily the result but the manner of the humiliating 3-0 loss that has caused such anger towards Brendan Rodgers and they need to bounce back quickly.

I lean slightly towards the home team on the match market but I do sense there could be a bit of value on the goal line. This game is always played in a red hot atmosphere at whatever time of day it is played but a 530pm kick off on a Saturday should lead to a loud and ‘well oiled’ crowd getting into the action. The goal line is set at just 2.25 but the last fifteen EPL meetings of the sides have seen the over 2.5 goals hit at a rate of 12-3 with two half losses and just one full loss. “They are different teams this season” I hear you cry and it is fair to say that both sides do not look to have the potency of their predecessors.  It is also fair to say that we know how both teams will set up and that both sides have trended towards the under this season as both are 3-1 to the under 2.5 goals. Add to that the fact that Philip Coutinho is suspended for Liverpool and that Wayne Rooney has scored only five goals in his twenty two games against Liverpool then you can see why the oddsmakers have the line set at just 2.25 goals. 

This is a massive derby game and often even the best willed tactical intentions go out of the window once the whistle blows. For a meeting of two teams in the higher echelons of the Premiership there will be a relatively large contingent of English players on show. These players are even more likely to get swept away with the emotion of this fixture as opposed to the more tactical approach displayed their continental counterparts. With that quarter goal built in as a little bit of protection should the game fall on two goals I am happy to take a small bit of the over 2.25 goals in what should be a cracker of a game to start your Saturday night. 

Selection

Back over 2.25 goals

Las Vegas Supercontest

NFL Supercontest Week One

　

Sports bettings equivalent of the World Series of Poker begins this weekend as the Supercontest kicks off in Las Vegas. 

The rules are simple. Pay the $1,500 entrance fee, pick five teams to win against the spread and whoever gets the most correct come the end of the season wins an absolute fortune! 

Lines are set at 5pm Las Vegas time every Wednesday and do not move. Your entries must be in by 11am Vegas time Saturday.  For the full information on the Contest have a look via clicking the below link:

https://www.westgatedestinations.com/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest

　

　

How do you think you'd do? Well have a go as below are your lines for Week 1 and feel free to tweet them to me @ukbettingpro

Steelers @ Patriots -7
Chiefs @ Texans -1
Dolphins @ Washington +3.5
Colts @ Bills +2.5
Seahawks @ Rams +4
Browns @ Jets -3.5
Panthers @ Jaguars +3
Packers @ Bears -7
Saints @ Cardinals -2.5
Lions @ Chargers -3
Ravens @ Broncos -4.5
Bengals @ Raiders +3
Titans @ Buccaneers -3
Giants @ Cowboys -6.5
Eagles @ Falcons +3
Vikings @ 49ers +2.5 

　

　

I love the contest so much that I moved to Vegas for six months to take part in the competition and even wrote a book about it!

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00JDOMF2U?ie=UTF8&at=aw-iphone-pc-uk-21&force-full-site=1&ref_=aw_bottom_links

　

Not entering officially this year but always do it for fun myself and adhere to the rules. I hope, no I EXPECT, to go over .500 with my picks this year so let's see how it goes.

I will be back with my Week One NFL thoughts at the weekend but until then good luck with all your bets.

　

　

All the best

Jimmy 

Goal Rush Week Seven

Goal Rush Week Seven

11-5 is where we currently stand on both the over 2.5 goals, our primary objective, and the Yes on BTTS which approximates to a 68.75% success rate. I think we'd settle for that on an ongoing basis if we can get the balance of risk/reward correct in terms of the price levels we are able to obtain. The early season run of 9-1 was never sustainable so we look to be reverting towards a more realistic long term level of success rate.

We have three games this Saturday across a variety of different leagues within the confines of the European Union!

Slask Wroclaw v Jagiellonia Poland Ekstraklasa 230pm kick off UK Time
Yes on BTTS is 5-2 and 6-1 respectively in the sides seven league matches so far this season. The last two meetings of the teams last season the under 2.5 goals with two and one goal respectively. However, that recent bias towards low scoring games may actually have helped us get a good solid price for this game. Prior to those two low scoring games the over 2.5 goals went 7-0 and since October 2008 only two of fifteen meetings have seen less than two goals. At the current market price of 17/20 I am interested in looking at this game seeing at least three goals.


Oldham v Peterborough, English Division One 3pm kick off UK Time
Both games finished all square last season when the sides met, 1-1 in this game and 2-2 in the reverse fixture at London Road, Peterborough. BTTS has landed in the last four meetings of the sides over the past two seasons with over 2.5 goals hitting a 75% strike rate. Peterborough have conceded at least twice in each of their three away games so far this campaign whilst Oldham have found the net in each of their three home games. Over 2.5 goals are 16-10 over this season and last at Boundary Park so this market price of on or around Even money looks good value to me.

Teplice v Bohemians, Czechoslovakia First League kick off 4pm UK
All of Teplice's games this season have season at least two goals and they have scored twice themselves in four of the five. Yes on BTTS is 4-1 in Bohemians games this season and between the sides' ten total games this season over 1.5 goals has gone 9-1. Teplice won this meeting of the teams 4-1 last season and 5-1 in 2013-14 so historical trends do point to a higher than average scoring game. At a price of odds against I like the over 2.5 as some good value here. Yes on BTTS is also available at over Even money so those following these selections more for the BTTS aspect can also think about getting involved. Both are priced at odds against yet the Czech league is hitting 57% and 62% on the over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS respectively so far this season.


So far the stats for the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 14-2
Over 2.5 goals 11-5
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5 and 6
BTTS 11-5 to the Yes
10 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins

　

Good luck with your bets this weekend and stake sensibly #GoalRush
Jimmy

NFL Divisional Champs

The season starts tomorrow and what better time than now to reveal my Divisional Winners thoughts. A few nailed on favourites interspersed with a bit of value sprinkled in for good measure:

　

AFC East - Buffalo Bills 13/2 William Hill

Rex Ryan has taken over the reigns in Buffalo and at last the local media have a charismatic coach they can get behind. The Bills' defence was a strong unit before the arrival of Ryan so this appointment will only make them a more formidable outfit. It was the quarterback play that held them back last season and once again that could be a factor for them as, although Tyrod Taylor has made strides, they don't appear to have true leader at that position. Running back LeSean McCoy has been brought in from Philadelphia to hopefully alleviate some of the pressure on the quarterback and all they require is serviceable play from under centre to mount a serious challenge for the divisional title. Two road games in October at Tennessee and in then London against Jacksonville looks set to shape their season.

Dangers

- obviously the Patriots are the short priced favourites but how will that defense cope with losing so many top quality players? With no wide receiver threat the whole success of their offense lies on the shoulders of Tom Brady and Gronk. The Jets are the Jets whilst the Dolphins have a huge weakness at the major coaching position, the Head Coach! This price on Buffalo looks too good to miss for me so I will snap it up and hope that the second week match up of the teams in Buffalo goes our way.

　

　

AFC North - Baltimore Ravens 13/8 SkyBet

It's hard to imagine that even in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL that a Baltimore team led by John Harbaugh will not be in the mix. They have a strong record of recruiting well through the draft and even without an abundance of high profile players they continue to mount play off challenges year on year. The loss of wide receiver Torrey Smith to the 49ers means they will have to rely even more heavily on the run game led by Justin Forsett. Quarterback Joe Flacco is up and down in terms of his levels of performance through the season but at critical moments he has a proven track record of performing.

Dangers

- Pittsburgh look a strong offensive unit but their secondary looks horrendous. The Bengals still rely on Andy Dalton and who wants to be in that position! Whilst Cleveland, well they are just Cleveland who will try and operate it seems completely without any form of offense!

　

　

AFC South - Houston Texans 9/2 Coral

Houston are in prime position to make the next step and make serious run in the play offs this season. Headcoach Bill O'Brien is very high on the play of quarterback Brian Hoyer and they don't need Hall of Fame type performances from him. Average quarterback play should see them get in the play offs as their offense will be led by star running back Arian Foster once he returns from injury. Defensively they have the phenom that is Defensive End JJ Watt leading an all round sound unit. This is such a weak division that I see Houston going 4-2 at worst against their contemporaries but more than likely 5-1. With home games against the Jets and Tampa Bay I am fairly confident that this Texans team will finish the season with a positive regular season record.

Dangers

- the only danger is Andrew Luck and the Colts but I'm not sold on their defense. If they are relying on two old guys such as Andre Johnson and Frank Gore to have monster seasons I see no value at all in their short odds on price. Give me the Texans as some value in a two horse race.

　

　

AFC West - Kansas City Chiefs 5/1 Bet Bright

Andy Reid has done an excellent job in Kansas City since he arrived two seasons ago. In that time, with limited offensive options, he has produced a competitive team capable of beating any opposition that is put in front of them. The off season addition of Jeremy Maclin should finally give them some down the field options for quarterback Alex Smith to open up. Smith is heavily criticised and much of it in my opinion is unfair. He is sneakily quick with his legs to make key first down runs and his decision making is good under pressure. Jamaal Charles is the best all purpose running back in football and despite another year on the clock he shows no signs of slowing up. With a decent defense and an intimidating home advantage at Arrowhead Stadium I see no reason why KC will not challenge for a playoff spot once more. The one issue they may have to overcome is the tough start to the season that the schedulers have set them. They open up at Houston before hosting Denver and then travelling to Green Bay. Heading into their fourth game of the season against Cincinnati they could be 0-3. That would be a difficult beginning to overcome.

Dangers

- Peyton Manning and his Broncos may have one big season left and the Chargers look improved. Ironically the stronger the division is the better it may be for KC as I see Oakland stealing the odd game here or there off of their rivals.

　

　

NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles 6/4 Bet Bright

Chip Kelly is taking all of the personnel decisions, all of the coaching decisions and probably even organising the cleaning rota at Lincoln Financial Field. Is he trying to do too much that will exhaust him come the business end of the season? The Eagles have bolstered their offense up over the summer with DeMarco Murray coming in from Dallas and even Tim Tebow has been in the building! The signing of Ryan Matthews from San Diego should see this high powered offense have the best running game in the league. As always though with a Chip Kelly team the defense is placed under huge pressure as the quick tempo Eagles offense leaves very little time for defensive rest.

Dangers

- if the Cowboys Offensive Line holds up then they could be strong contenders for the division as their offense will remain potent even with the loss of Murray. The Giants have huge play ability but their defense does not look anywhere near good enough to push for the divisional crown. Washington are an absolute train wreck and I would be surprised if they offered any resistance to anybody in the NFC East.

　

　

NFC North - Green Bay Packers 4/9 Paddy Power

This was to be the easiest write up of the pre season. A well coached side with the best quarterback in the game, if not ever! Rodgers makes everybody around him better and with that receiving corps of Cobb and Nelson staying for another season the future looked bright for the Cheeseheads. However, the pre season injury to Nelson makes the future a little less certain. In his absence though I expect a break out second season from receiver Davante Adams to further compliment the physicality of running back Eddy Lacy. Collectively their defense is not the greatest but they do have playmakers on that side of the ball who can change the game and make a real difference in the big games.

Dangers

- Minnesota and Detroit could both make challenges towards the title and even though Chicago have little quality they have the best coach in the league who could be the difference in the odd game.

　

　

NFC South - Atlanta Falcons 9/4 Bet Bright

Last season was a poor year for the Falcons and in some ways I'm not overly sure what they have done in the off season to warrant the optimism that surrounds Georgia. A six win season last year yet they are projected to win 8.5 this year? Dan Quinn comes in for his first year as a headcoach after a very successful time as Defensive Co-Ordinator up in Seattle. You have to wonder how much of that success in Seattle was down to Quinn and how much was to do with the quality of players he had at his disposal. Quarterback Matt Ryan seems to be up and down from year to year but to be fair to him that normally coincides with the fitness of his star players. If wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White stay fit for the full season there is no reason why they cannot push back towards the play off race. Especially if Quinn can help shore up what has in recent seasons been a very porous defense.

Dangers

- This could be another season where 8-8 wins the division. So with the injury to Kelvin Benjamin in Carolina seriously hampering their chances, New Orleans looking weaker as Brees ages and Tampa Bay in full rebuilding process I am happy to stick with the Falcons at this market price.

　

　

NFC West - Seattle Seahawks 4/11 Bet Bright

The signing of tight end Jimmy Graham has been much heralded across the league as a coup for Seattle. However I am a little unsure about this move as I'm concerned this may lead them to moving away from their ground and pound style offense. Graham is obviously a great red zone target but I feel the ball should still be handed off to Marshawn Lynch in those key moment. Seattle are almost guaranteed to be at least 7-1 on home soil given their incredible home advantage so this win total looks a bit low to me. Many believe this division will be incredibly strong this season but I am not convinced and I think the Seahawks may end up winning the title quite comfortably. The major concern for Seattle is their very tough out of division road schedule which sees them travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay and Minnesota. A 3-2 record would be a great return from those games and if they achieve that I see them professing as divisional champions.

Dangers

- Arizona could really make the leap and push Seattle hard but I just sense that Seattle have the course and distance knowledge over their rivals from the desert. St Louis are over-hyped in my opinion and the 49ers look to be a season away under their new headcoach.

So there we go, stick them in an Accumulator and use the slip as toilet paper!

I will be back at the weekend with my thoughts for the first weekend, hope you are all as excited as I am.

　

Best of luck

Jimmy

NFL Season Long Win Total Column

Morning Ballers!

The wait since that final play in Super Bowl XLIX in Phoenix is nearly over as the NFL 2016 season starts this Thursday night when the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers. I will be looking to post weekly columns previewing and reviewing the weekly action both on the field and also off the field in the betting markets. For those of you who don't know, two years ago I participated in the famous Supercontest that takes place out in Las Vegas throughout the duration of the regular season so I will also be keeping you up to date with events in that competition as well.

We will start with my favourite five Under/Over Season Win Total Bets for the season.

Washington Redskins

Head Coach Jay Gruden

Last season 4-12

Over/Under season win totals 6.5

The Redskins have been the weakest team in the NFC East for a while now and this off season has shown me little to think this will change this season. Headcoach Jay Gruden is in trouble and his relationship with one time star quarterback Robert Griffin III seems broken beyond repair. Gruden has tied himself to Kirk Cousins now as he has jettisoned RG3 and the success of the team this season will define his future as a Headcoach in this league. Washington host Miami and St Louis to open the season and the outcome of those games will have a huge impact on the Redskins' season. If they struggle and Cousins does not perform well I sense the pressure on the coach/QB partnership will ratchet up and Washington is not a forgiving city. Give me the under 6.5 wins as my favourite bet of the year as there is a chance that Washington could do so badly that they end up with the number one pick in next years draft!

UNDER 7/10 @ Bet Victor

　

　

Tennessee Titans

Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt
Last season 2-14
Over/Under season win totals 5.5
The Titans took Marcus Mariota with the second pick of this years draft and the former Oregon quarterback will start under centre from Day One. It will be a tough baptism for the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner as gone are the days when first round draft picks watch from the sidelines and undertake a gradual learning process. In an ideal world they would sit him for the season and allow him to learn but Tennessee do not have that luxury as they are in a bit of a mess. So much so that I think for coach Whisenhunt a four win season with Mariota showing signs of progression would be viewed as a good season by the franchises hierarchy. They are starting from that very low base of a two win season and with minimal playmakers to assist Mariota they are once again in danger of finishing bottom of the weakest division in the NFL.

UNDER 6/5 @ Paddy Power

　

　

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach Sean Payton

Last season 7-9

Over/Under season win totals 8.5

New Orleans is a city where I am struggling to understand where the substantial pre season optimism is coming from. Drew Brees looked terrible at times last season and quarterbacks do not play forever and sometimes the decline is almost overnight in them. Is he finished? Maybe not but I cannot trust him on a consistent basis especially away from the climate controlled atmosphere of their dome home in New Orleans. Sean Payton decided to trade Jimmy Graham in the off season and you have to wonder what internal strife led to the decision? Without him they are a much weaker offense but maybe locker room team harmony has been placed ahead of on field ability. Their defense continues to be of much concern and unless second year wide receiver Brandon Cooks steps up this could be a very disappointing year for the Saints. The one-two punch of Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller should add some threat on the ground and take a bit of the pressure off of the ageing Brees but I'd be very surprised if they will be consistent enough to finish anything better than 8-8.

UNDER 6/5 Paddy Power

　

　

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach Bruce Arians

Last season 11-5

Over/Under season win totals 8.5

If we learned anything about the NFL last season it was that the importance of a good quarterback is paramount of the success of any team. Despite the Cardinals working wonders from a defensive perspective to get to an eleven win season the loss of Carson Palmer in November to a season ending ACL tear ruined their post season chances. Palmer appears to have worked hard to get fit for this upcoming season and looks set to be ready for week one action. It will be interesting t see how the Cardinals' defense holds up to the loss of Defensive Co-Ordinator Todd Bowles to the New York Jets but the majority of their defensive pieces remain. Headcoach Bruce Arians is a fantastic coach and I see him leading Arizona to another successful season but just how far they go may rest entirely on the fitness of their quarterback. A solid run game and potential for big plays from their wide receivers led by the timeless Larry Fitzgerald should see them to at least nine wins.

OVER 11/8 @ William Hill

　

　

St Louis Rams

Head Coach Jeff Fisher

Last season 6-10

Over/Under season win totals 7.5

Once again there is a lot of buzz and hype about a Jeff Fisher led side. They will be the epitome of their coach as they will adopt a tough physical running based offense and will show similar characteristics on defense. To lead them to glory they have traded away Sam Bradford to Philadelphia in return for Nick Foles. We do not have much evidence that Foles can play in a typical NFL offense so much of the early season offense will predicated on quick release throws and screens. In a division filled with tough defenses maybe that is the way the Rams believe success is gained but I'm not so sure! Road games in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Minnesota look tough and it will take all of Fisher's know how and experience to get them anywhere near a play off spot. 2008 was the last season that Fisher had a winning record as a coach and I will take that run to continue this campaign as well.

UNDER 11/10 @Bet365

　

　

　

So there we have it, four unders and one over. Maybe I'm just a born pessimist!


I will be back tomorrow with my Divisional thoughts and a crazy eight team season long Divisional Acca!


All the best
Jimmy

　

Weekend Review

Weekend Review

Well perhaps I was a fortune teller in a previous life as on Friday I published a column about the pitfalls that lay ahead this past weekend.

Maybe I should have taken some of my own advice as it was a poor weekend for myself!

The Goal Rush was more of a Goal Trickle as our selection finished with a 1-0 win for Stranraer. This defeat saw us slip to 11-5 to both the over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS.

Did we get much more success with the Stats Pack? No! Both of our main bets in goal and and match markets lost and a generally rare bad week was saved marginally by a winner in the live match on Sky Sports on Sunday.

Time stands for still for no man though and with the NFL season starting this Thursday night then the fun is just beginning. I will be posting up my favourite season long bets in the next couple of days and also my fancies for the Divisional titles.

Research is well on for this weeks Stats Pack and Goal Rush as we look to bounce back quickly and strongly. The Podcast covering the Premiership action is already up so please check that out via the links tweeted out.  

Bye for now and good luck all
Jimmy

Saturday Column - To bet or not to bet? That is the question

Morning Team

Are you shaking? Feeling nervous? You want to place a bet don't you but be honest you ain't got a freakin clue about any of the action today, have you? Today is a real test for us bettors with no top flight action around Europe.

Will Walsall continue their good run at home to Bury?

Can Belarus get anything from their trip to Ukraine?

Who really knows as this is a tough weekend for bettors with a mixture of European Qualifying fixtures and lower league action throughout Europe. In truth it's a weekend that if you are not sure then you should really just watch the games on television and enjoy the action for what it is, sporting entertainment. 

If you don't feel like you have an edge or some real understanding of why you are picking the side you're on then you're not betting, you're gambling. In my opinion that is the fundamental difference between being able to make consistent long term positive returns from participating in sports wagering. 

It may be a subtle difference in thought but bettors can win, gamblers rarely do. This is the mindset change that you need to adopt to make regular profits in the game.  

Don't get me wrong there is nothing wrong with gambling for pleasure. A £10 coupon on teams or goals whilst you laid on the sofa watching Soccer Saturday is a relatively cheap form of entertainment when compared to the theatre, cub me or taking the other half shopping!

Research is key though so please see below for a few of the sites that I enjoy using and find really help my analysis. You can run head to head and situational tests on many of these sites to help you confirm or disprove any ‘gut’ feels you may have.

http://uk.soccerway.com/

http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/head_to_head.sd

http://www.footymad.net/

http://www.statto.com/ - this is what I call the Bible and is back after a short time offline. A must use!

Any of you who do want some good solid Division Two research straight to you can catch up with all of the facts you need in this division via my Stats Pack. Available for £15 for the rest of the season by clicking below and signing up today:

http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/division-2-stats-pack-special-offer-15.html

Remember folks. Sometimes the best bet you can make is the one that you don't make. 

I know it's a Saturday and there is football on the TV but you don't have to bet. 

Be sensible folks and if you're not sure then don't pull the trigger!

Best of luck

Jimmy

Goal Rush Week 6

Goal Rush Week 6

Morning Team Goals and I bring you some good news this week. You won't need to worry about working out how you will split your stakes across the Goal Rush bets as there is only one.  Yes, across all of Europe in the many leagues on offer there is just one bet that qualifies to be put forward. There were several games that hit the criteria but this is the only game I can trust to put forward to you all as a bet. I will not force bets through and would rather put fewer games forward than give out what I consider to be inferior suggestions.

Off to Bonny Scotland we head for Ladbrokes Division One action........

Stranraer v Brechin, Scotland Division One, 3pm UK time kick off
Eighth placed Stranraer welcome bottom of the table Brechin to Stair Park and they will be confident of adding to their solitary victory this season. The campaign is only four games in but it has been a poor start for the visitors who have lost all four games, conceding thirteen goals in the the process. One bright light for them is the fact that they have managed to find the net in every single game but sadly conceding more at the other end. They are the dream for Yes on BTTS backers whilst Stranraer have scored in three of their four games and conceding in each match. The trends towards goals in this fixture do not stop there as historically when these sides meet there have been plenty of goals. In fact each of the last fourteen meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals and in the last seventeen meetings the over 2.5 goals had gone 13-4. At the current market price of about 1.75 the over 2.5 goals looks an excellent bet in what is in truth a sparse card for us to choose from.


So far the stats for the Goal Rush are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 14-1
Over 2.5 goals 11-4
Goal Distribution 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5 and 6
BTTS 11-4 to the Yes
9 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins

　

　

　

No EPL this weekend, no worries! Full Division Two card this weekend and I have a Stats Pack discounted offer for new subscribers,just click below!

http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/division-2-stats-pack-special-offer-15.html

Good luck and be sensible with your staking!


All the best
Jimmy

Division 2 Stats Pack SPECIAL OFFER £15 REST OF SEASON

Well the Division 2 stats pack has had a good season and here I am going to offer a special offer of subscribing to the stats pack for ONLY £15 until the end of the season.

As an example of what you will receive take a look at last weekends sheet HERE

This offer is on until 2100 GMT Friday 13th November so why not subscribe now in time for the weekend.

Here are what some people on Twitter have had to say about the stats pack this season

Stuart Jack ‏@341656  Aug 30

@ukbettingpro Another great day - 6 out of 8 singles - cheers

Bryan ‏@MetsJetsNyrEfc  Aug 31

@ukbettingpro if you put money on all your subscription leans this week, you would have gotten nearly every game right!

Shaun ‏@shauncraigblog  Aug 29

@ukbettingpro well done on your l2 ratings, another superb week, i managed +4 points across 11 selections, upto +12pts on the season so far!

tim billington ‏@timbillington  Aug 18

@ukbettingpro only 9 from 10 from you tonight mate. Shame to miss the ten fold by one though. Well done. #league2

Roscoe Ice ‏@roscoeice  Aug 19

@ukbettingpro Jimmy K smokes it again! We're not even out of August and Ive easily tripled the £25 I bought the L2 stat pack for. Boom!

JOIN THE STATS PACK NOW ONLY £15 FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON