I feel like a manager not wanting to criticise his players during a bad run. I know everyone is putting in maximum effort and it's not for the lack of trying. We are on a 3-5 run the last two weeks but all eight games have seen at least two goals. Even more frustratingly the five losing bets have seen the second goal scored in 41st, 41st, 45th, 52nd and 75th minutes. They seem good bets and in each of those, maybe bar the last, you'd take two goals after those minutes if you'd been offered them before the game kicked off. Anyway, less of my of moaning and on to the numbers.
Stats to date are:
Over 0.5 goals 96-1
Over 1.5 goals 86-11
Over 2.5 goals 60-37
Over 3.5 goals 35-62
Yes on BTTS 58-39
Home wins 48 Draws 15 Away wins 34
This week we have four games, starting Friday night, so let's look to hit a nice 3-1 weekend!
Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa @ 4/5 Turkey Super Ligue, Friday 6pm Kick Off UK Time
Top of the table Fenerbahe host seventh placed Kasimpasa in a Friday night offering for the first of our five games this weekend. The last two meetings of the sides have gone under 2.5 goals but prior to that the over was on a 8-3 run since October 2007. The key to this game hitting the over is the potential for Kasimpasa to find the net and they've done that in three of their last five trips to Fenerbahce. They failed to find the net in their last game at home to Genclerbirligi but before that they scored in seven straight matches. Their seven games against fellow top third opposition have yielded twenty goals and the hosts have scored in every league game so far this season. Fenerbahce lost last time out 4-2 away to mid table Antalyaspor so there is no reason why the away side cannot bag a goal or two. With the Turkey top flight averaging 2.70 goals per game I will take this game to hit the over.
Avellino v Bari @ 23/20 Italy Serie B, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
Serie B is averaging just 2.35 goals per game this season so it's easy to see why this game is priced up at well over odds against. The sides have met fifteen times in all competitions since November 2003 and only three of those games have seen one or less goal and there have been no goalless draws. Those historical trends are rare in the notoriously cagey Italian lower leagues. Avellino's twelve home games so far this campaign have seen a total of thirty five goals whilst the first game between the sides ended 2-1 to the home team in Bari back in September. Avellino have scored in twenty one straight Serie B games whilst Bari have needed five times in their last three games so at this price point I see excellent risk/reward in this over 2.5 goals play.
Gornik Leczna v Piast Gliwice @ Evens Polish Ekstraklasa, Saturday 230pm Kick Off Time
We welcome the Polish Ekstraklasa back after their mid season break and here I see a game that will waken everyone from their winter slumber. The mid table home side have seen much more than the 2.64 goals per game league average as their ten home games have seen a total of thirty two goals. On their travels the visitors' ten away games have yielded a total of thirty six goals and Piast Gliwice have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight league games. You have to be slightly cautious given the extended off time both teams have had but on a pure trends basis this is an incredible price. Made even more enticing by the fact that the last three meetings of the sides have all cashed an over 2.5 goal ticket.
FC Cologne v Eintracht Frankfurt @ 11/13 German Bundesliga, Saturday 530pm UK Kick Off Time
2.78 goals per game is the league average for the Bundesliga and it's fair to say FC Cologne have been one of the lower scorers, especially at home, in this league. Just seventeen goals in their ten home games makes this at first glance a strange selection. However, this game over the last two seasons has seen nineteen goals in just three meetings and despite those low scoring games for Cologne this season each of their last five league games have seen Yes on BTTS. Frankfurt have conceded seventeen goals in their last eight matches so there appears to be no signs that this will be a low scoring game. Given the recent trends when these sides meet I am delighted to get this over 2.5 goal bet priced as generously as it is.
There we go peeps and the best of British luck to you all.
Jimmy
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