Weekend Goal Rush

A 2-2 last weekend and after taking an early lead we were forced to come back with a late German equaliser to ensure we came out with a 50:50 record and a small loss. A rare 0-0 spoiled my Saturday last weekend as although I don't take too kindly to losing bets I hate being as wrong as we were in Poland! I did get a couple of nice messages from chaps who are using this column to pick games that are to go over 3.5 goals. I've learnt that my work is being looked at by a variety of different folk at all staking levels and from all angles, from over 0.5 goals to over 3.5 goals and Yes on BTTS bets. My main priority is to select games to hit over 2.5 goals but as I keep stressing this is an evolving study. In the summer I plan to go back through, as I didn't keep the records to begin with, to see if there is any correlation between the Home win/Away win/Draw and Yes on BTTS. If so, have we found a way to profit from the Team A to win and BTTS type bets that are now readily available at all bookmakers. Let's see how we stack up season long and onto the weekend.

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 99-2
Over 1.5 goals 89-12
Over 2.5 goals 62-39
Over 3.5 goals 37-64
Yes on BTTS 61-40
Home wins 50 Draws 17 Away wins 34


Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg @ 5/6 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time
For the first game this weekend we head off to one of our favourite haunts, the Bundesliga. This game looks primed to add to the season long league average of 2.79 goals as both teams have seen plenty of goals in their games so far this season. Ironically the 0-0 draw between them back in September has probably helped us gain a tidy price. Prior to that goalless draw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals had cashed in four straight meetings. Recent league outings for both sides have seen them struggle to keep it clean defensively. Frankfurt have conceded in all but one home game so far this season and their opposition have scored twenty goals in Frankfurt's last nine league games. Hamburg have been no tidier at the back as Yes on BTTS has gone 10-1 in their last eleven games so it's hard to put a case forward for either team to keep a clean sheet. As its hard, I won't bother! Give me over 2.5 goals here to get us off to a cracking start to the weekend.


Antalyaspor v Rizespor @ 20/23 Turkish Super Lig, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
The Turkish Super Lig has been quite good to us so far this season as this league which is not always considered to be a flowing and open one has seen plenty of goals. The average goals per game currently sits at 2.7 and I really like this game to get us off to a good start this Saturday. When the sides met back in September it was Rizespor who ran out 5-1 winners in a result that belies the fact that they lie just one place above, thirteenth, Antalyaspor. It is a small sample size but all three meetings of the sides since October 2013 have all seen Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bets cash. Antalyaspor have kept just one clean sheet in thirteen home games whilst Rizespor have seen each of their last five league matches cash Yes on BTTS tickets. Let's take some of the over in what should be an open and entertaining game.


Vitoria Setubal v Nacional @ 23/20 Portugese Primeira Liga, Saturday 6pm UK Kick Off Time
Having ran my complicated #GoalRush algorithm or alternatively sat there working my games out with pen and paper (you decide which I do) I was amazed to see this priced odds against. There have been at least two goals scored in thirteen of the last fourteen head to head meetings of the sides. Setubal home games have gone 7-4 to over 2.5 goals this season and Nacional have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last ten league outings. On that basis we may not need the away side to score to cash an over 2.5 bet.  Fear not though as the leaky Setubal backline has not kept a clean sheet I any of their last ten league matches. At this juicy market price of odds against let's take a nice chunk of the overs for our final bet for the Saturday #GoalRush column.


There may, I say me, be a bonus Sunday edition of the column but needing to firm a few things up before I confirm.


Best of luck everybody and speak soon
Jimmy