The McLaren era begins on Tyneside this weekend as Steve McLaren takes over at the helm at Newcastle United for the 2015-16 season. I was there at Wembley that fateful night when he was dubbed the 'Wally with the Brolly' in the pouring London rain as England slipped out of the European Championship qualifying at the hands of Croatia back in 2007. It has been a long road back to the big time for the clearly talented coach and in his first game he hosts Ronald Koeman's Southampton side.
The general feeling amongst many people I have spoken with is that the Saints will regress in Koeman's second season at St Mary's but I am not so sure. However, this is a tough opening game for Southampton so I'm genuinely surprised to see them priced up as slight favourites for this opening day trip to the north east. Much of the concern for the Saints can be attributed to them losing their last five games away from home last season. It was only their strong home form in the last third of the season that allowed them to finish in seventh position but many of those wins were achieved against the Premierships weaker teams. Newcastle also had a torrid end to the season as they picked up just four points in their last eleven games and it was only a final day 2-0 home win over West Ham that secured their EPL status for this campaign. I believe the only difference between many of those mid tier Premiership sides is the coaching and in game management and in both areas McLaren can help Newcastle improve.
Despite me being surprised that the away team are priced up as favourites I not see any value in betting the home team until I see how they shape up under their new management. It is the goal markets that appeal to me as even though both sides struggled at the back end of last season all of both teams' last seven games saw at least two goals. Recent head to head meetings also support goals as the last six meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 4-2. I'm sure that Newcastle will look to try and play a more exciting and attractive brand of football under McLaren whilst I have some questions about Southampton defensively that I want answers to. Last summer they sold defensive rock Lovren to Liverpool and they coped very well in his absence as their strong defensive performances continued. This summer they offloaded England full back Clyne, also to Liverpool, and banked another hefty fee sent south from Merseyside. You cannot keep selling players from a successful unit and expect the performance of the group to remain as strong so I think the Saints may be more vulnerable defensively this season, especially whilst the reshaped backline gels.
With a more expansive Newcastle team and a potentially weaker Saints back line I believe this will be an open and entertaining encounter. I am very happy to take a slice of the over 2.25 goal line as my preferred bet in this match!
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