NFL Season Long Win Total Column

Morning Ballers!

The wait since that final play in Super Bowl XLIX in Phoenix is nearly over as the NFL 2016 season starts this Thursday night when the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers. I will be looking to post weekly columns previewing and reviewing the weekly action both on the field and also off the field in the betting markets. For those of you who don't know, two years ago I participated in the famous Supercontest that takes place out in Las Vegas throughout the duration of the regular season so I will also be keeping you up to date with events in that competition as well.

We will start with my favourite five Under/Over Season Win Total Bets for the season.

Washington Redskins

Head Coach Jay Gruden

Last season 4-12

Over/Under season win totals 6.5

The Redskins have been the weakest team in the NFC East for a while now and this off season has shown me little to think this will change this season. Headcoach Jay Gruden is in trouble and his relationship with one time star quarterback Robert Griffin III seems broken beyond repair. Gruden has tied himself to Kirk Cousins now as he has jettisoned RG3 and the success of the team this season will define his future as a Headcoach in this league. Washington host Miami and St Louis to open the season and the outcome of those games will have a huge impact on the Redskins' season. If they struggle and Cousins does not perform well I sense the pressure on the coach/QB partnership will ratchet up and Washington is not a forgiving city. Give me the under 6.5 wins as my favourite bet of the year as there is a chance that Washington could do so badly that they end up with the number one pick in next years draft!

UNDER 7/10 @ Bet Victor

　

　

Tennessee Titans

Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt
Last season 2-14
Over/Under season win totals 5.5
The Titans took Marcus Mariota with the second pick of this years draft and the former Oregon quarterback will start under centre from Day One. It will be a tough baptism for the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner as gone are the days when first round draft picks watch from the sidelines and undertake a gradual learning process. In an ideal world they would sit him for the season and allow him to learn but Tennessee do not have that luxury as they are in a bit of a mess. So much so that I think for coach Whisenhunt a four win season with Mariota showing signs of progression would be viewed as a good season by the franchises hierarchy. They are starting from that very low base of a two win season and with minimal playmakers to assist Mariota they are once again in danger of finishing bottom of the weakest division in the NFL.

UNDER 6/5 @ Paddy Power

　

　

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach Sean Payton

Last season 7-9

Over/Under season win totals 8.5

New Orleans is a city where I am struggling to understand where the substantial pre season optimism is coming from. Drew Brees looked terrible at times last season and quarterbacks do not play forever and sometimes the decline is almost overnight in them. Is he finished? Maybe not but I cannot trust him on a consistent basis especially away from the climate controlled atmosphere of their dome home in New Orleans. Sean Payton decided to trade Jimmy Graham in the off season and you have to wonder what internal strife led to the decision? Without him they are a much weaker offense but maybe locker room team harmony has been placed ahead of on field ability. Their defense continues to be of much concern and unless second year wide receiver Brandon Cooks steps up this could be a very disappointing year for the Saints. The one-two punch of Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller should add some threat on the ground and take a bit of the pressure off of the ageing Brees but I'd be very surprised if they will be consistent enough to finish anything better than 8-8.

UNDER 6/5 Paddy Power

　

　

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach Bruce Arians

Last season 11-5

Over/Under season win totals 8.5

If we learned anything about the NFL last season it was that the importance of a good quarterback is paramount of the success of any team. Despite the Cardinals working wonders from a defensive perspective to get to an eleven win season the loss of Carson Palmer in November to a season ending ACL tear ruined their post season chances. Palmer appears to have worked hard to get fit for this upcoming season and looks set to be ready for week one action. It will be interesting t see how the Cardinals' defense holds up to the loss of Defensive Co-Ordinator Todd Bowles to the New York Jets but the majority of their defensive pieces remain. Headcoach Bruce Arians is a fantastic coach and I see him leading Arizona to another successful season but just how far they go may rest entirely on the fitness of their quarterback. A solid run game and potential for big plays from their wide receivers led by the timeless Larry Fitzgerald should see them to at least nine wins.

OVER 11/8 @ William Hill

　

　

St Louis Rams

Head Coach Jeff Fisher

Last season 6-10

Over/Under season win totals 7.5

Once again there is a lot of buzz and hype about a Jeff Fisher led side. They will be the epitome of their coach as they will adopt a tough physical running based offense and will show similar characteristics on defense. To lead them to glory they have traded away Sam Bradford to Philadelphia in return for Nick Foles. We do not have much evidence that Foles can play in a typical NFL offense so much of the early season offense will predicated on quick release throws and screens. In a division filled with tough defenses maybe that is the way the Rams believe success is gained but I'm not so sure! Road games in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Minnesota look tough and it will take all of Fisher's know how and experience to get them anywhere near a play off spot. 2008 was the last season that Fisher had a winning record as a coach and I will take that run to continue this campaign as well.

UNDER 11/10 @Bet365

　

　

　

So there we have it, four unders and one over. Maybe I'm just a born pessimist!


I will be back tomorrow with my Divisional thoughts and a crazy eight team season long Divisional Acca!


All the best
Jimmy