Weekend Goal Rush

Hello folks

Hope we are all well but I have no time for niceties this week. Nice guys finish last and in recent weeks we've been last. It's time to get nasty!


Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 101-3 97.11%
Over 1.5 goals 91-13  87.5%
Over 2.5 goals 63-41  60.58%
Over 3.5 goals 37-67  35.58%
Yes on BTTS 63-41 60.58%
Home wins 51 Draws 19 Away wins 34


As the minimum price we are looking for is 1.7 (although a couple of early games this season were a tad lower than that) I have taken a conservative average of 1.78 for winning bets. That leaves us with a profit of 8.14 points for the over 2.5 goals which equates to an ROI of 7.82% which is a very respectable level of return.

Right let's hope we have some bad boy behaviour in terms of sendings off and penalties to help us get back on the right track. Four games, all with different kick off times which gives us plenty of extended entertainment.


Trabzonspor v Osmanlispor @ 21/20 Turkish Super Lig, 5pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday 
Dipping into the Turkish league has proved successful of late for us and here is the first of two such journeys this GoalRush weekend. When the teams faced off for the first time this season it was Osmanlispor who emerged 3-1 victors back in September. These sides both sit mid table in ninth and eight placed respectively and games against similar opposition have yielded a total of thirty four goals in a combined eleven games. Over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 in Trabzonspor's last eight league games whilst Osmanlispor have scored three or more goals in three of their last four league outings.  All of this points to a number of goals being scored in this game so let's hope the number is three or more!


Troyes v L'Orient @ 7/10 French Ligue 1, 7pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday
For the late game this Saturday we head to our dear neighbours France and Ligue One is only averaging 2.43 goals this season so at first glance this price may look a little short. When the sides met back in November though it was L'Orient who ran out convincing 4-1 winners. Although the sides have not met for a few seasons both of the match ups back in the 2012-13 season went over 3.5 goals. Troyes have failed to win at home this season as their 0-6-7 home record has seen them score just eight goals. However, when L'Orient play sides in the bottom third of the table there have
been no fewer than thirty eight total goals scored. The chances of the away side keeping a clean sheet look remote and given the fact that Troyes have scored two or more goals three of their last seven and L'Orient have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last eleven games I sense this an excellent chance for a high scoring game.


Sivaspor v Antalyaspor @ 4/5 Turkish Super Lig, 1130am Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Bottom placed Sivaspor host a comfortably placed mid table Antalyaspor as they look for their third win on home soil this season. Despite being rooted at the foot of the table the home side are 2-6-2 when entertaining sides this campaign so they are no push over on home soil. Recent meetings of the sides have been jam packed full of goals as the last twelve meetings have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals hitting at 8-4 and Yes on BTTS going 9-3. It was one apiece earlier in the season when the teams met so I'm happy to side with their being at least one further goal and us cashing an over 2.5 ticket this Sunday lunchtime.


Udinese v Hellas Verona @ 21/20 Italian Serie A, 2pm Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Relegation threatened Udinese host rock bottom Hellas Verona this Sunday in a critical game in the Serie A survival battle. These teams are nineteenth and twentieth in the form table in this spot of playing fellow bottom third opposition and they've kept only a combined three clean sheets in those eighteen matches. Serie A is averaging 2.59 goals so far this season but recent matches between the sides have seen there share of goals as the last five league games have seen fourteen total goals and just one clean sheet. Verona have won their last two trips to this stadium, 2-1 last season and 3-1 in 2013-14, so they will no fear making this journey and they know time is beginning to run out for them as they lie seven points clear of safety. This is a winnable game for them and I expect it to be open as with Udidense keeping one clean sheet in nine and Verona one clean sheet in fifteen neither side will trust their defence!



All the best
Jimmy

Weekend Goal Rush

A 2-2 last weekend and after taking an early lead we were forced to come back with a late German equaliser to ensure we came out with a 50:50 record and a small loss. A rare 0-0 spoiled my Saturday last weekend as although I don't take too kindly to losing bets I hate being as wrong as we were in Poland! I did get a couple of nice messages from chaps who are using this column to pick games that are to go over 3.5 goals. I've learnt that my work is being looked at by a variety of different folk at all staking levels and from all angles, from over 0.5 goals to over 3.5 goals and Yes on BTTS bets. My main priority is to select games to hit over 2.5 goals but as I keep stressing this is an evolving study. In the summer I plan to go back through, as I didn't keep the records to begin with, to see if there is any correlation between the Home win/Away win/Draw and Yes on BTTS. If so, have we found a way to profit from the Team A to win and BTTS type bets that are now readily available at all bookmakers. Let's see how we stack up season long and onto the weekend.

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 99-2
Over 1.5 goals 89-12
Over 2.5 goals 62-39
Over 3.5 goals 37-64
Yes on BTTS 61-40
Home wins 50 Draws 17 Away wins 34


Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg @ 5/6 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time
For the first game this weekend we head off to one of our favourite haunts, the Bundesliga. This game looks primed to add to the season long league average of 2.79 goals as both teams have seen plenty of goals in their games so far this season. Ironically the 0-0 draw between them back in September has probably helped us gain a tidy price. Prior to that goalless draw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals had cashed in four straight meetings. Recent league outings for both sides have seen them struggle to keep it clean defensively. Frankfurt have conceded in all but one home game so far this season and their opposition have scored twenty goals in Frankfurt's last nine league games. Hamburg have been no tidier at the back as Yes on BTTS has gone 10-1 in their last eleven games so it's hard to put a case forward for either team to keep a clean sheet. As its hard, I won't bother! Give me over 2.5 goals here to get us off to a cracking start to the weekend.


Antalyaspor v Rizespor @ 20/23 Turkish Super Lig, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
The Turkish Super Lig has been quite good to us so far this season as this league which is not always considered to be a flowing and open one has seen plenty of goals. The average goals per game currently sits at 2.7 and I really like this game to get us off to a good start this Saturday. When the sides met back in September it was Rizespor who ran out 5-1 winners in a result that belies the fact that they lie just one place above, thirteenth, Antalyaspor. It is a small sample size but all three meetings of the sides since October 2013 have all seen Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bets cash. Antalyaspor have kept just one clean sheet in thirteen home games whilst Rizespor have seen each of their last five league matches cash Yes on BTTS tickets. Let's take some of the over in what should be an open and entertaining game.


Vitoria Setubal v Nacional @ 23/20 Portugese Primeira Liga, Saturday 6pm UK Kick Off Time
Having ran my complicated #GoalRush algorithm or alternatively sat there working my games out with pen and paper (you decide which I do) I was amazed to see this priced odds against. There have been at least two goals scored in thirteen of the last fourteen head to head meetings of the sides. Setubal home games have gone 7-4 to over 2.5 goals this season and Nacional have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last ten league outings. On that basis we may not need the away side to score to cash an over 2.5 bet.  Fear not though as the leaky Setubal backline has not kept a clean sheet I any of their last ten league matches. At this juicy market price of odds against let's take a nice chunk of the overs for our final bet for the Saturday #GoalRush column.


There may, I say me, be a bonus Sunday edition of the column but needing to firm a few things up before I confirm.


Best of luck everybody and speak soon
Jimmy

Goal Rush Weekend

I feel like a manager not wanting to criticise his players during a bad run. I know everyone is putting in maximum effort and it's not for the lack of trying. We are on a 3-5 run the last two weeks but all eight games have seen at least two goals. Even more frustratingly the five losing bets have seen the second goal scored in 41st, 41st, 45th, 52nd and 75th minutes. They seem good bets and in each of those, maybe bar the last, you'd take two goals after those minutes if you'd been offered them before the game kicked off. Anyway, less of my of moaning and on to the numbers.

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 96-1
Over 1.5 goals 86-11
Over 2.5 goals 60-37
Over 3.5 goals 35-62
Yes on BTTS 58-39
Home wins 48 Draws 15 Away wins 34

This week we have four games, starting Friday night, so let's look to hit a nice 3-1 weekend!

Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa @ 4/5 Turkey Super Ligue, Friday 6pm Kick Off UK Time
Top of the table Fenerbahe host seventh placed Kasimpasa in a Friday night offering for the first of our five games this weekend. The last two meetings of the sides have gone under 2.5 goals but prior to that the over was on a 8-3 run since October 2007. The key to this game hitting the over is the potential for Kasimpasa to find the net and they've done that in three of their last five trips to Fenerbahce. They failed to find the net in their last game at home to Genclerbirligi but before that they scored in seven straight matches. Their seven games against fellow top third opposition have yielded twenty goals and the hosts have scored in every league game so far this season. Fenerbahce lost last time out 4-2 away to mid table Antalyaspor so there is no reason why the away side cannot bag a goal or two.  With the Turkey top flight averaging 2.70 goals per game I will take this game to hit the over.

Avellino v Bari @ 23/20 Italy Serie B, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
Serie B is averaging just 2.35 goals per game this season so it's easy to see why this game is priced up at well over odds against. The sides have met fifteen times in all competitions since November 2003 and only three of those games have seen one or less goal and there have been no goalless draws. Those historical trends are rare in the notoriously cagey Italian lower leagues. Avellino's twelve home games so far this campaign have seen a total of thirty five goals whilst the first game between the sides ended 2-1 to the home team in Bari back in September. Avellino have scored in twenty one straight Serie B games whilst Bari have needed five times in their last three games so at this price point I see excellent risk/reward in this over 2.5 goals play.

Gornik Leczna v Piast Gliwice @ Evens Polish Ekstraklasa, Saturday 230pm Kick Off Time
We welcome the Polish Ekstraklasa back after their mid season break and here I see a game that will waken everyone from their winter slumber. The mid table home side have seen much more than the 2.64 goals per game league average as their ten home games have seen a total of thirty two goals. On their travels the visitors' ten away games have yielded a total of thirty six goals and Piast Gliwice have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight league games. You have to be slightly cautious given the extended off time both teams have had but on a pure trends basis this is an incredible price. Made even more enticing by the fact that the last three meetings of the sides have all cashed an over 2.5 goal ticket.

FC Cologne v Eintracht Frankfurt @ 11/13 German Bundesliga, Saturday 530pm UK Kick Off Time
2.78 goals per game is the league average for the Bundesliga and it's fair to say FC Cologne have been one of the lower scorers, especially at home, in this league. Just seventeen goals in their ten home games makes this at first glance a strange selection. However, this game over the last two seasons has seen nineteen goals in just three meetings and despite those low scoring games for Cologne this season each of their last five league games have seen Yes on BTTS. Frankfurt have conceded seventeen goals in their last eight matches so there appears to be no signs that this will be a low scoring game. Given the recent trends when these sides meet I am delighted to get this over 2.5 goal bet priced as generously as it is.


There we go peeps and the best of British luck to you all.

Jimmy

Super Bowl 50

Super Bowl 50 - The grand finale to a truly amazing season

The crowds gather each year at the same time in early February with millions watching around the world in anticipation. All waiting to see if the old master is ready to come out and play or if he wants to curl up and wait for the warmer weather to return. I'm obviously talking about Punxsutawney Phil but the same thing could apply to Peyton Manning and the ‘Sheriff’ is hoping this Sunday is not going to be his very own Groundhog Day.

The comparisons to two years ago in New York are frightening and one of the only things that appears to have changed is Manning's ability to play the game. Two years ago he was struggling to reach his former heights but now he is floundering, like a fish stuck out of water, and the betting line adjustment from twenty four months ago is stark. Denver were two point favourites against the Seahawks but here they are five and a half point dogs to Carolina when their defense is considerably stronger than it was two years ago. 

We all know American Football is a long drawn out game that for many sports fans is just not worth the hassle. Us, the converted, know this not to be a true and that it is the most interesting and strategically fascinating game ever invented. But even I can admit that Super Bowl Sunday is a long fucking day! So whether you're stood in a sports book in Vegas (as there is no way you will get a seat), enjoying a party round your buddies in the States, drinking beer in one of the many late night establishments staying open in the UK or if you're just like me who plans to sit watching it on my sofa in my pants (underwear to my American friends) drinking beer and eating pizza then I have a bet for all occasions.

I don't plan on losing all of these bets but to me the Super Bowl is all about fun. Fun bets, put on for fun and you should only bet a level of money that you'd be prepared to burn in front of your face. So I have covered off a few of the major talking point bets that crop up at this time of year and a bet in each of these markets should at least keep you awake long enough to put on your poorly voice and phone in sick Monday morning. Oh and one thing, please don’t empty your entire wallet on bets before the game even kicks off……………………………

 

The National Anthem

Lady Gaga really does love to drag things out and I see the Vegas line is set around the 140 seconds whereas Coral over here have the line set at 137 ½ seconds. The over is available at Even money and whilst two and a half seconds may not sound much in these such bets they are vital. Give me Lady G to hang onto that last note for an eternity and enable us to cash.

 

Coin toss

You have had heard of coin flip games, well this is a coin flip bet and it’s been pretty even over the forty nine Super Bowl’s so far with Tails leading25-24 against Heads. Heads comes into this game very confident as they are on a 5-2 run over the past seven encounters so the recent form suggests Heads is the side to be on. WTF am I talking about, it’s a coin flip! The muggiest of all mug bets and although Tails does often fail give me that side of the coin at a generally available price of 20/21. You really didn’t think they’d give you Even money did you?

 

First Score

Everybody in Vegas loves to bet the safety and I was in Caesars Palace two years ago when that snap flew past Peyton Manning’s head. The safety cashed and the whole place erupted! At a best price of 50/1 with Paddy Power there are worst bets to be had than that one as it covers both teams whilst a safety for ether named team is 100/1 with Betway. At 6/4 with Bet Victor the Field Goal option looks a decent play to me as historically both teams look to feel each other out early in this contest. Risks are not taken at 0-0 and the opportunity to put points on the board to settle the early nerves is rarely overlooked.

 

Match Market

I don’t think they will win but at 2/1 with Ladbrokes the bet on the underdog is the only one I would consider. In all honesty a pass from me.

 

Point Line

Carolina are -5 ½ and a bet on this line does not appeal to me at all. I do like the Panthers a lot to win this game but it’s hard not to reflect back two years and come to a conclusion based on that result. It is the side I would take but I sense there are better ways to be with a Carolina victory than by betting on this point line.

 

The first song that Coldplay will play at half time

Ladbrokes and William Hill both have A Sky Full of Stars at 7/1 and although they usually tend to play this late in their sets they could flip it around. They only have a small number of songs to play so they want to play the most popular that resonate with the majority rather than their core fanbase. A market though to maybe keep a careful eye on during the day because often THEY know.

 

The last song that Coldplay will play at half time

Viva La Vida.  They talk about “Ruling the world” in this song don’t they? Super Bowl champions are the world champions. Simple logic folks and its available at 7/1 with BWin. As per above be careful THEY may know.

 

Cam Newton Rushing Yards

I was pricing this up in my head during the week and I had this around the 47 ½ yard mark. To see Paddy Power post this line at 38 ½ @ 5/6 was like a gift from the gods! Newton has ran for more than thirty yards in twelve of his eighteen games this season. The Denver defense is a very stout unit but their schedule has not seen them come up against many mobile quarterbacks. Alex Smith ran for fifteen and thirty three yards in his two games for the Chiefs and that’s the closest comparison you can make. Newton is a different animal though and we’ve seen in recent games his willingness to take massive hits in search of extra yards in pursuit for glory. With the Broncos defense looking to lock down the Carolina receivers I see Cam tucking it under, using the read option and running on several occasions and after three or four runs that line of just under forty yards should look very achievable!

 

Longest touchdown

This market includes any kick return as well as offensive and defensive plays. Given that possibility and the potential for a big Cam run or Ted Ginn Jnr to explode I will take some of the over 40 ½ yards with Bet Victor @ 9/10.

 

Winning margin

I think the only way to play this is to back Carolina to win big as if you like the Broncos it's clearly going to be in a close dogfight of a game. If you like them then you're probably already on Denver at healthy odds against prices. Give me a little bit of the 13/2 that is available at Ladbrokes for the Panthers to win by 13-18 points.

 

MVP

Twenty seven of the previous forty nine and five of the last six MVP's have been quarterbacks. Can anyone else for Carolina gain this award? How many tackles would Keuchly have to make, how many interceptions for Norman, how many yards rushing and receiving for Ginn Jnr and Stewart. Yes it could happen but can you really see them winning without him making one phenomenal take your breathe type of play? No.  The best price for Carolina is 4/9 yet Cam Newton is 8/11 with both Coral and Ladbrokes for the MVP. This bet is a good way to improve your odds on the Carolina win as it’s only a slim chance that the Panthers lift the trophy without Cam also hoisting the MVP award above his head. I suppose I better throw in an alternative in case Denver win the game and the obvious choice would be for Manning to ride off into the sunset with confetti falling around him. However, I think the ‘Sheriff’ will have a tough night and it may be down to the Denver Special Teams to have a decisive contribution to any potential Broncos success. Jordon Norwood should see plenty of punt return action if the much heralded Denver defense halts the Panthers offense and at 300/1 with 888 Sport he seems an interesting play. Admittedly he will have to run back at least one punt for a touchdown and probably even take one of his rare receptions in the passing game in for a touchdown (which he hasn’t done all season) but it’s a bit of fun folks……and he is 300/1!

 

Colour of the Gatorade

THEY always seem to know how this one is going to play out so be very watchful during the day for line moves. Initially orange is a best priced 6/4 and a worse price 4/7 but I will keep away from that and look to blue. That colour is as long as 8/1 with Boyle Sports but as low as 5/2 elsewhere so give me some of the blue and I will admit it’s a complete play on Carolina winning.

 

Well there we go folks. A slightly tongue in cheek end to the season where I only really love one of the above bets and that is the Cam Newton rushing yards. In fact thinking about it whilst I wrote the rest of this article I have to say it would be one of my favourite bets of the entire season.

The Super Bowl is truly for enjoyment purposes only as the lines in the main markets are so tight. Have a great night and I shall be back in August, NFL wise, for my thoughts for the 2017 season. I’m getting excited about it already!

 

All the best

Jimmy

 

Goal Rush Weekend

A 2-3 weekend but all five games saw at least two goals which at least gives us further reassurance that our system and analysis is picking good games to participate in. Thankfully the rest of Europe is waking up after its Winter slumber so the amount of games we have to pick from will only increase week on week. I'm wary of diving in too deep on leagues that are just returning so we will stick to the tried and trusted this weekend!

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 93-1
Over 1.5 goals 83-11
Over 2.5 goals 59-35
Over 3.5 goals 34-60
Yes on BTTS 56-38
Home wins 47 Draws 14 Away wins 33

Three games this weekend, all in different countries and all at different times allowing you Acca lovers to get the best market odds rolling up each game rather than placing a single Acca with just one provider. Well that's fingers crossed for an early cash in Belgium......!


Crewe v Rochdale @ 4/5 English League One, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
Lowly Crewe host just below mid table Rochdale in a game that the Railwaymen will believe they have an excellent chance of gaining a home win in. The stats and trends do seem to be against them achieving that victory though as they are 3-7-3 when taking on fellow bottom half placed sides. Those thirteen games have seen a total of forty one goals and they lost both games between the sides last season. Not only did they lose them, they were spanked in them! 5-2 in this game in Crewe and 4-0 in the return game at Spotland but Dale have only kept one clean sheet in their last nine league games so this match is primed for goals.  Crewe know that we are getting to the stage of the season where draws do not help their plight much and an early goal in this game should ensure this is an end to end affair.


Zulte Waregem v Charleroi @ 17/20 Belgian Pro League, 745pm Kick Off UK Time
Over 2.5 goals is a season long 18-6 overall in Zulte games but they did fail to score when the sides met in Charleroi back in early October. Fear not though as Charleroi netted three times to ensure the over 2.5 goal bet cashed in that game as it has in the four straight and in five of the last seven league meetings of the teams. Yes on BTTS is 7-1 in the last eight Zulte league games and for a side well placed in the league their current run of just two clean sheets in eighteen games is hardly impressive. Mid table Charleroi have scored in twelve of their last thirteen games and with the memory of those three goals in their first meeting I see no reason why they won't score here. I really like this bet in a league that is a reliable provider of goals, currently averaging 2.83 goals per game and I see this game only driving that average up!


Sporting Gijon v Deportivo La Coruna @ 6/5 Spanish La Liga, 905pm Kick Off UK Time
Hopefully we are 2-0 by about 64 minutes of that Belgian game so you can roll your winnings onto this odds against shot! La Liga matches average 2.69 goals per game but I think we can all agree that those stats are perhaps artificially inflated by the influence of Barcelona and Real Madrid. For those at the bottom of the table, without a Messi or Ronaldo, finding the back of the net is not always the easiest of tasks. However, those games are where we can sometimes find the value and no more so than here. Gijon won the first meeting of the teams this season 3-2 in an exciting high scoring game in the famous Riazor. Historically there have been goals when these teams met and although I accept that we are going back to between October 2008 and May 2011 often trends continue over many years. During that time each game saw either Yes on BTTS (5-1) or over 2.5 goals (4-2) so with Yes and over cashing back in September of this season that only strengthened that run. Gijon have conceded more than once in seven of their last ten matches and Deportivo have scored in eighteen of their last twenty one matches. At a price of odds against this looks a very decent risk/reward bet to take as a Saturday nightcap before we settle down to watch Match Of The Day.


There we have it, another Goal Rush Saturday in the book. Enjoy the EPL games, listen to the podcast with myself and the legend himself @petenordsted which can be listened to here  http://bit.ly/1S1Qide

I shall be back on Sunday morning with my extra special Super Bowl column with my thoughts and a couple of crazy bet thoughts for what is always a great nights entertainment.

All the best
Jimmy