Sunday, 25 October 2015

NFL Week 7


NFL Week 7

Bills @ Jaguars -4
The line opened minus four but was quickly bet up to minus five and a half before ticking back on the news Tyrod Taylor does not start. The only thing I fear here is that free and easy Rex Ryan allows his team to run riot across London rather than using it as a season saving business trip. I do have a slight lean to the over here at a line of forty one. 

Buccaneers @ Redskins -3.5
RG3 throws an interception and "Robert needs to make better decisions with the football." Kick Cousins throws one and "it was a bit windy out there."  Washington, as per those ridiculous comments from coach Gruden, are in crisis time as they host a Tampa Bay team coming off of a bye. Washington's opposition has caught on to the fact that if you negate their run threat then eventually Kirk Cousins will throw you a bone........or an interception. Take the extra half a point over the field goal, close your eyes and trust Lovie Smith!

Falcons @ Titans +6.5
Marcus Mariota is out but I'm not sure what effect his inactivity has had on the line move from four to six and a half. Atlanta have had an extra three days to prepare for this game and I expect them to bounce back and even laying quite a steep number on the road I will take them to get the job done. 

Saints @ Colts -4
This line looks too low to me as I'm pretty sure that Indianapolis are better on both sides of the ball. New Orleans have had three extra days rest following their Thursday night home win against Atlanta and yes it's in a dome where Brees performs best but I can't trust the Saints. Give me the home team to cover and I like the over as Luck should pick that Saints secondary to pieces. 

Vikings @ Lions +1.5
The records of the two teams suggest that this game is priced correctly. However, I watched a lot of the Vikings win over Kansas City last weekend and it was not convincing at all. Teddy Bridgewater is not playing overly well and here they travel to a divisional opponent who seem to be moving back toward the "Hey Matt, just chuck it as far as you can to big Calvin."  Take the points that are on offer.

Steelers @ Chiefs -3
So much uncertainty here over the quarterback position for Pittsburgh. The only thing I do know is that if Landry Jones starts on the road in the second loudest NFL venue I won’t be taking the Steelers!

Browns @ Rams -6.5
Oh I love the Rams here. Coming off of a bye week and hosting a Cleveland side who cannot seem to stop the run. Manning and the Broncos allowed the Browns to hang around last Sunday far longer than they should have. Gurley to make hay here and the Rams to win by double digits. 

Texans @ Dolphins -4.5
Big Dan Campbell is laying the smack down in Miami and the players appear to love it. To me he seems like a WWE character acting out the role of a NFL Headcoach but if it works for him then fair play! I think I will pass this game completely. 

Jets @ Patriots -8
How can you go against the Patriots? Well I think I can as I'm sure that the Jets D Line will get after Tom Brady. Running the ball I expect Chris Ivory to have some success and as I said last week Decker and Marshall should be able to move the chains. My only concern is that Ryan Fitzpatrick may have a tragic rather than a magic performance here. Give me the points though as Gang Green should find a way to keep it close. 

Raiders @ Chargers -4
I'm not quite sure what to make of this game bar the fact I expect there to be a lot of points. San Diego have zero running game and they know that their best option is just to let Rivers wing it and sling it!

Cowboys @ Giants -3.5
The GMen were pathetic in their Monday Night Football on the road to Philadelphia. Here they host another divisional foe in the shape of the Cowboys who may have Dez Bryant back. I doubt it but even if they do they will still have Matt Casell throwing him the ball, or trying to! The point line opened up at 48 but has been drilled down to 45.5 and I sense there could be a little bit of value now on the over. We know the Cowboys revel in this underdog spot but I just can't back them here. A pass for me.

Eagles @ Panthers -3
I've liked what I've seen from the Eagles in the past two weeks but I'm still convinced Mark Sanchez would run this offense better than Sam Bradford does. Cam Newton is a phenomenal footballer and maybe in time the rest of the universe will catch up with my thinking. In this spot I sense the value is with backing the Eagles straight up. I'm not sure I could bet it but that's where the value lies. 

Ravens @ Cardinals -8.5
This weekends NFL card is like my dinner as I always save the best for last. This Monday Night Football could be a complete blow out as the Ravens have zero pass defense. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are turning back the clock to 2008 and I'm sure Bruce Arians will have a plan to limit the 'Flacco to Smith' Raven game plan. It opened at minus six and a half and has escalated up through the touchdown. I still like the Cardinals at any level up to and including minus nine and a half. 

 
20-10 is how I stand currently in my just for fun SuperContest picks as for the second week in a row I have gone 4-1. This after four 3-2 weekends means I am yet to have a losing week if any of you have been betting my thoughts. No pressure this week then .............
Cardinals -7.5
Rams -5.5
Lions +2.5
Falcons -4.5

Colts -4.5

Please be aware folks that those lines are posted at 5pm Las Vegas time on a Wednesday evening and do not move.  
Best of luck everybody and enjoy the games (even the London one).

Jimmy

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