Super Bowl 50

Super Bowl 50 - The grand finale to a truly amazing season

The crowds gather each year at the same time in early February with millions watching around the world in anticipation. All waiting to see if the old master is ready to come out and play or if he wants to curl up and wait for the warmer weather to return. I'm obviously talking about Punxsutawney Phil but the same thing could apply to Peyton Manning and the ‘Sheriff’ is hoping this Sunday is not going to be his very own Groundhog Day.

The comparisons to two years ago in New York are frightening and one of the only things that appears to have changed is Manning's ability to play the game. Two years ago he was struggling to reach his former heights but now he is floundering, like a fish stuck out of water, and the betting line adjustment from twenty four months ago is stark. Denver were two point favourites against the Seahawks but here they are five and a half point dogs to Carolina when their defense is considerably stronger than it was two years ago. 

We all know American Football is a long drawn out game that for many sports fans is just not worth the hassle. Us, the converted, know this not to be a true and that it is the most interesting and strategically fascinating game ever invented. But even I can admit that Super Bowl Sunday is a long fucking day! So whether you're stood in a sports book in Vegas (as there is no way you will get a seat), enjoying a party round your buddies in the States, drinking beer in one of the many late night establishments staying open in the UK or if you're just like me who plans to sit watching it on my sofa in my pants (underwear to my American friends) drinking beer and eating pizza then I have a bet for all occasions.

I don't plan on losing all of these bets but to me the Super Bowl is all about fun. Fun bets, put on for fun and you should only bet a level of money that you'd be prepared to burn in front of your face. So I have covered off a few of the major talking point bets that crop up at this time of year and a bet in each of these markets should at least keep you awake long enough to put on your poorly voice and phone in sick Monday morning. Oh and one thing, please don’t empty your entire wallet on bets before the game even kicks off……………………………

 

The National Anthem

Lady Gaga really does love to drag things out and I see the Vegas line is set around the 140 seconds whereas Coral over here have the line set at 137 ½ seconds. The over is available at Even money and whilst two and a half seconds may not sound much in these such bets they are vital. Give me Lady G to hang onto that last note for an eternity and enable us to cash.

 

Coin toss

You have had heard of coin flip games, well this is a coin flip bet and it’s been pretty even over the forty nine Super Bowl’s so far with Tails leading25-24 against Heads. Heads comes into this game very confident as they are on a 5-2 run over the past seven encounters so the recent form suggests Heads is the side to be on. WTF am I talking about, it’s a coin flip! The muggiest of all mug bets and although Tails does often fail give me that side of the coin at a generally available price of 20/21. You really didn’t think they’d give you Even money did you?

 

First Score

Everybody in Vegas loves to bet the safety and I was in Caesars Palace two years ago when that snap flew past Peyton Manning’s head. The safety cashed and the whole place erupted! At a best price of 50/1 with Paddy Power there are worst bets to be had than that one as it covers both teams whilst a safety for ether named team is 100/1 with Betway. At 6/4 with Bet Victor the Field Goal option looks a decent play to me as historically both teams look to feel each other out early in this contest. Risks are not taken at 0-0 and the opportunity to put points on the board to settle the early nerves is rarely overlooked.

 

Match Market

I don’t think they will win but at 2/1 with Ladbrokes the bet on the underdog is the only one I would consider. In all honesty a pass from me.

 

Point Line

Carolina are -5 ½ and a bet on this line does not appeal to me at all. I do like the Panthers a lot to win this game but it’s hard not to reflect back two years and come to a conclusion based on that result. It is the side I would take but I sense there are better ways to be with a Carolina victory than by betting on this point line.

 

The first song that Coldplay will play at half time

Ladbrokes and William Hill both have A Sky Full of Stars at 7/1 and although they usually tend to play this late in their sets they could flip it around. They only have a small number of songs to play so they want to play the most popular that resonate with the majority rather than their core fanbase. A market though to maybe keep a careful eye on during the day because often THEY know.

 

The last song that Coldplay will play at half time

Viva La Vida.  They talk about “Ruling the world” in this song don’t they? Super Bowl champions are the world champions. Simple logic folks and its available at 7/1 with BWin. As per above be careful THEY may know.

 

Cam Newton Rushing Yards

I was pricing this up in my head during the week and I had this around the 47 ½ yard mark. To see Paddy Power post this line at 38 ½ @ 5/6 was like a gift from the gods! Newton has ran for more than thirty yards in twelve of his eighteen games this season. The Denver defense is a very stout unit but their schedule has not seen them come up against many mobile quarterbacks. Alex Smith ran for fifteen and thirty three yards in his two games for the Chiefs and that’s the closest comparison you can make. Newton is a different animal though and we’ve seen in recent games his willingness to take massive hits in search of extra yards in pursuit for glory. With the Broncos defense looking to lock down the Carolina receivers I see Cam tucking it under, using the read option and running on several occasions and after three or four runs that line of just under forty yards should look very achievable!

 

Longest touchdown

This market includes any kick return as well as offensive and defensive plays. Given that possibility and the potential for a big Cam run or Ted Ginn Jnr to explode I will take some of the over 40 ½ yards with Bet Victor @ 9/10.

 

Winning margin

I think the only way to play this is to back Carolina to win big as if you like the Broncos it's clearly going to be in a close dogfight of a game. If you like them then you're probably already on Denver at healthy odds against prices. Give me a little bit of the 13/2 that is available at Ladbrokes for the Panthers to win by 13-18 points.

 

MVP

Twenty seven of the previous forty nine and five of the last six MVP's have been quarterbacks. Can anyone else for Carolina gain this award? How many tackles would Keuchly have to make, how many interceptions for Norman, how many yards rushing and receiving for Ginn Jnr and Stewart. Yes it could happen but can you really see them winning without him making one phenomenal take your breathe type of play? No.  The best price for Carolina is 4/9 yet Cam Newton is 8/11 with both Coral and Ladbrokes for the MVP. This bet is a good way to improve your odds on the Carolina win as it’s only a slim chance that the Panthers lift the trophy without Cam also hoisting the MVP award above his head. I suppose I better throw in an alternative in case Denver win the game and the obvious choice would be for Manning to ride off into the sunset with confetti falling around him. However, I think the ‘Sheriff’ will have a tough night and it may be down to the Denver Special Teams to have a decisive contribution to any potential Broncos success. Jordon Norwood should see plenty of punt return action if the much heralded Denver defense halts the Panthers offense and at 300/1 with 888 Sport he seems an interesting play. Admittedly he will have to run back at least one punt for a touchdown and probably even take one of his rare receptions in the passing game in for a touchdown (which he hasn’t done all season) but it’s a bit of fun folks……and he is 300/1!

 

Colour of the Gatorade

THEY always seem to know how this one is going to play out so be very watchful during the day for line moves. Initially orange is a best priced 6/4 and a worse price 4/7 but I will keep away from that and look to blue. That colour is as long as 8/1 with Boyle Sports but as low as 5/2 elsewhere so give me some of the blue and I will admit it’s a complete play on Carolina winning.

 

Well there we go folks. A slightly tongue in cheek end to the season where I only really love one of the above bets and that is the Cam Newton rushing yards. In fact thinking about it whilst I wrote the rest of this article I have to say it would be one of my favourite bets of the entire season.

The Super Bowl is truly for enjoyment purposes only as the lines in the main markets are so tight. Have a great night and I shall be back in August, NFL wise, for my thoughts for the 2017 season. I’m getting excited about it already!

 

All the best

Jimmy