Saturday 31 October 2015
Sunday Goal Rush
Sunday Goal Rush
A 2-1 Saturday extends our good run but as usual I am not happy that we did not clean sweep!
Updated stats are as below:
Over 0.5 goals 49-0
Over 1.5 goals 43-6
Over 2.5 goals 33-16
Over 3.5 goals 17-32
Yes on BTTS 33-16
Home wins 23 Draws 8 Away wins 18
Surprisingly given the relatively few qualifying games for Saturday there are a lot more games that qualify for this Sunday’s Goal Rush. I have narrowed these down to my favourite three.
Espanyol v Granada @ 11/9 Spanish La Liga 3pm Kick off UK Time
Mid table Espanyol host lowly Granada this weekend as they look to move back into the top half of the table. Espanyol won both meetings of the sides last season by a scoreline of 2-1 and they have seen the over 2.5 goals go 7-2 in their games so far this campaign. Granada are not a great side but they have scored in three straight games and the home side have conceded no fewer than twenty goals this term. At a price of over even money this looks a good bet to get us going this Sunday afternoon.
Southampton v Bournemouth @ 9/11 English Premier League 4pm Kick off UK Time
South coast derby for the Super Sunday action in the Premiership this Sunday. A lot has been made of the injuries that Bournemouth have experienced so far this season. That is true but it has not stopped them from scoring goals as they have now scored in eight straight EPL games. The home team have scored at least twice in each of their last four home games and I feel at this current market price this over 2.5 goals bet presents excellent value.
OB Odense v Brondby IF @ Evens Danish Superliga 5pm Kick off UK Time
Historically the overs has not dominated the fixture as since November 2005 under 2.5 goals has gone 20-10. Such a strong trend to the under looks to have ensured that this price is around the Even money mark. Let’s look at the facts though for this season as the two teams combined twenty six games have seen a total of eighty goals. Breaking it down even further and Odense have scored in every home game so far this season and the same can be said of Brondby on the road. At Even money this looks a decent play on a risk/reward basis.
Best of luck everybody and let’s go AT LEAST 2-1 this Sunday.
Jimmy
Thursday 29 October 2015
Halloween Ghoul Rush
Saturday 31st October Ghoul Rush
Welcome to this weeks Ghoul Rush. Did you see what I've done there for this Halloween's games? I'm not normally a comic genius don't worry!
Last weekend saw an impressive 5-1 return from our selected six games and Sunday saw a 3-0 clean sweep. Even the historically boring, although it's got better of late, Serie A obliged us with two Sunday wins. The data sample is really beginning to grow in size and although the criteria highlights many games the extra analysis does seem to help weed out the weaker selections. Please see below for the full stats so far this campaign:
Over 0.5 goals 46-0
Over 1.5 goals 40-6
Over 2.5 goals 31-15
Over 3.5 goals 17-29
Yes on BTTS 31-15
Home wins 22 Draws 7 Away wins 17
This weekend there are some games that are perhaps a tad shorter in price than I really would like to suggest. However, there is a dearth of games this weekend that both fit the criteria and also pass the extra deeper analysis check.
Where in the world then are we off to this Saturday?
Orebro v AIK Stockholm @11/17 Swedish Allsvenskan, 2pm Kick Off UK Time
Mid table Orebro have a job on their hands in this game as they entertain title challengers AIK Stockholm. The visitors lie just three points off of the top spot but need to bounce back after last weeks defeat at home to fellow title challengers IFK. The last six meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals scored with over 2.5 goals going 5-1 in this stretch. With Orebro scoring in nine straight games, overs going 7-2, if the away team are to win this game then it would appear that they will need to score at least twice. Despite losing last season in this spot AIK have scored two goals in each of their last three visits to Orebro so give me the over 2.5 goals to land here.
Derby v Rotherham @4/5 English Championship, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
Fifth placed Derby host the Millers as Rotherham look for a win to help them climb out of the relegation zone. Despite being down in the drop zone Rotherham have not struggled to find the net on a consistent basis as they have scored in ten straight league games and in twelve of their thirteen Championship matches this season. The Rams have scored at least twice in four of their last five league games after some early season struggles in front of goal. When the sides met last season it was a 1-0 win for Derby back in August but I put forward there that the adrenalin was flowing through the newly promoted Rotherham side. The return meeting in February at the New York Stadium saw a pulsating 3-3 draw and I see more goals here. Take the over 2.5 goals.
Grasshoppers v Thun @9/13 Swiss Super League, 445pm Kick Off UK Time
These two sides have played twenty six league games so far this campaign. There have been an incredible one hundred and two total goals in those matches. One hundred and two! When the teams have met since September 2013 the over 2.5 goals is 7-2 and although this games finished goalless back in April prior to that the Yes on BTTS had cashed in six of the previous seven meetings and over 2.5 goals also went 6-1. Including that goalless draw the last seven meets have seen a total of thirty one goals. To me that 0-0 is the outlier that gives us the excellent value we have at this market price.
These are shorter prices this Saturday than usual but I think if you're patience on the exchanges you will get at least the 1.7 that we are ideally looking for on our selections. Let's look to at least a 2-1 Saturday and fingers crossed we hit a hat trick.
I will be back with more for you Saturday evening as we head into November. Please also look out for my NFL thoughts blog and the usual ramblings on the Premiership Betting podcast with the legend that is @petenordsted . Links for all of my content will be sent out in the usual manner!
All the best with your betting this weekend.
Jimmy
Welcome to this weeks Ghoul Rush. Did you see what I've done there for this Halloween's games? I'm not normally a comic genius don't worry!
Last weekend saw an impressive 5-1 return from our selected six games and Sunday saw a 3-0 clean sweep. Even the historically boring, although it's got better of late, Serie A obliged us with two Sunday wins. The data sample is really beginning to grow in size and although the criteria highlights many games the extra analysis does seem to help weed out the weaker selections. Please see below for the full stats so far this campaign:
Over 0.5 goals 46-0
Over 1.5 goals 40-6
Over 2.5 goals 31-15
Over 3.5 goals 17-29
Yes on BTTS 31-15
Home wins 22 Draws 7 Away wins 17
This weekend there are some games that are perhaps a tad shorter in price than I really would like to suggest. However, there is a dearth of games this weekend that both fit the criteria and also pass the extra deeper analysis check.
Where in the world then are we off to this Saturday?
Orebro v AIK Stockholm @11/17 Swedish Allsvenskan, 2pm Kick Off UK Time
Mid table Orebro have a job on their hands in this game as they entertain title challengers AIK Stockholm. The visitors lie just three points off of the top spot but need to bounce back after last weeks defeat at home to fellow title challengers IFK. The last six meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals scored with over 2.5 goals going 5-1 in this stretch. With Orebro scoring in nine straight games, overs going 7-2, if the away team are to win this game then it would appear that they will need to score at least twice. Despite losing last season in this spot AIK have scored two goals in each of their last three visits to Orebro so give me the over 2.5 goals to land here.
Derby v Rotherham @4/5 English Championship, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
Fifth placed Derby host the Millers as Rotherham look for a win to help them climb out of the relegation zone. Despite being down in the drop zone Rotherham have not struggled to find the net on a consistent basis as they have scored in ten straight league games and in twelve of their thirteen Championship matches this season. The Rams have scored at least twice in four of their last five league games after some early season struggles in front of goal. When the sides met last season it was a 1-0 win for Derby back in August but I put forward there that the adrenalin was flowing through the newly promoted Rotherham side. The return meeting in February at the New York Stadium saw a pulsating 3-3 draw and I see more goals here. Take the over 2.5 goals.
Grasshoppers v Thun @9/13 Swiss Super League, 445pm Kick Off UK Time
These two sides have played twenty six league games so far this campaign. There have been an incredible one hundred and two total goals in those matches. One hundred and two! When the teams have met since September 2013 the over 2.5 goals is 7-2 and although this games finished goalless back in April prior to that the Yes on BTTS had cashed in six of the previous seven meetings and over 2.5 goals also went 6-1. Including that goalless draw the last seven meets have seen a total of thirty one goals. To me that 0-0 is the outlier that gives us the excellent value we have at this market price.
These are shorter prices this Saturday than usual but I think if you're patience on the exchanges you will get at least the 1.7 that we are ideally looking for on our selections. Let's look to at least a 2-1 Saturday and fingers crossed we hit a hat trick.
I will be back with more for you Saturday evening as we head into November. Please also look out for my NFL thoughts blog and the usual ramblings on the Premiership Betting podcast with the legend that is @petenordsted . Links for all of my content will be sent out in the usual manner!
All the best with your betting this weekend.
Jimmy
Sunday 25 October 2015
Goal Rush Sunday
Morning Team Goals
How are we all this
morning?
Yesterday we went
2-1 to the over 2.5 goals which was ok but you know I am a perfectionist so let us look for 3-0 today! Updated stats below:
Over 0.5 goals 43-0
Over 1.5 goals 37-6
Over 2.5 goals
28-15
Over 3.5 goals
15-28
BTTS 29-14 to Yes
20 home wins, 7 draws and 16 away
wins
Bournemouth v
Tottenham Hotspur @ Evens , EPL 205pm kick off UK Time
Lazio v Torino @ 11/10,
Serie A 5pm kick off UK Time
Best of luck
Jimmy
NFL Week 7
NFL Week 7
Bills @ Jaguars -4
The line
opened minus four but was quickly bet up to minus five and a half before
ticking back on the news Tyrod Taylor does not start. The only thing I fear
here is that free and easy Rex Ryan allows his team to run riot across London
rather than using it as a season saving business trip. I do have a slight lean
to the over here at a line of forty one.
Buccaneers @ Redskins -3.5
RG3 throws an interception
and "Robert needs to make better decisions with the football." Kick
Cousins throws one and "it was a bit windy out there." Washington, as per those ridiculous comments from coach
Gruden, are in crisis time as they host a Tampa Bay team coming off of a bye.
Washington's opposition has caught on to the fact that if you negate their run
threat then eventually Kirk Cousins will throw you a bone........or an
interception. Take the extra half a point over the field goal, close your eyes
and trust Lovie Smith!
Falcons @ Titans +6.5
Marcus Mariota is out but
I'm not sure what effect his inactivity has had on the line move from four to
six and a half. Atlanta have had an extra three days to prepare for this game
and I expect them to bounce back and even laying quite a steep number on the
road I will take them to get the job done.
Saints @ Colts -4
This line looks too low to
me as I'm pretty sure that Indianapolis are better on both sides of the ball.
New Orleans have had three extra days rest following their Thursday night home
win against Atlanta and yes it's in a dome where Brees performs best but I
can't trust the Saints. Give me the home team to cover and I like the over as
Luck should pick that Saints secondary to pieces.
Vikings @ Lions +1.5
The records of the two
teams suggest that this game is priced correctly. However, I watched a lot of
the Vikings win over Kansas City last weekend and it was not convincing at all.
Teddy Bridgewater is not playing overly well and here they travel to a
divisional opponent who seem to be moving back toward the "Hey Matt, just
chuck it as far as you can to big Calvin." Take the points that are on offer.
Steelers @ Chiefs -3
So much uncertainty here
over the quarterback position for Pittsburgh. The only thing I do know is that
if Landry Jones starts on the road in the second loudest NFL venue I won’t be
taking the Steelers!
Browns @ Rams -6.5
Oh I love the Rams here.
Coming off of a bye week and hosting a Cleveland side who cannot seem to stop
the run. Manning and the Broncos allowed the Browns to hang around last Sunday
far longer than they should have. Gurley to make hay here and the Rams to win
by double digits.
Texans @ Dolphins -4.5
Big Dan Campbell is laying
the smack down in Miami and the players appear to love it. To me he seems like
a WWE character acting out the role of a NFL Headcoach but if it works for him
then fair play! I think I will pass this game completely.
Jets @ Patriots -8
How can you go against the
Patriots? Well I think I can as I'm sure that the Jets D Line will get after
Tom Brady. Running the ball I expect Chris Ivory to have some success and as I
said last week Decker and Marshall should be able to move the chains. My only
concern is that Ryan Fitzpatrick may have a tragic rather than a magic
performance here. Give me the points though as Gang Green should find a way to
keep it close.
Raiders @ Chargers -4
I'm not quite sure what to
make of this game bar the fact I expect there to be a lot of points. San Diego
have zero running game and they know that their best option is just to let
Rivers wing it and sling it!
Cowboys @ Giants -3.5
The GMen were
pathetic in their Monday Night Football on the road to Philadelphia. Here they host
another divisional foe in the shape of the Cowboys who may have Dez Bryant
back. I doubt it but even if they do they will still have Matt Casell throwing
him the ball, or trying to! The point line opened up at 48 but has been drilled
down to 45.5 and I sense there could be a little bit of value now on the over.
We know the Cowboys revel in this underdog spot but I just can't back them
here. A pass for me.
Eagles @ Panthers -3
I've liked
what I've seen from the Eagles in the past two weeks but I'm still convinced
Mark Sanchez would run this offense better than Sam Bradford does. Cam Newton
is a phenomenal footballer and maybe in time the rest of the universe will
catch up with my thinking. In this spot I sense the value is with backing the
Eagles straight up. I'm not sure I could bet it but that's where the value
lies.
Ravens @ Cardinals -8.5
This weekends NFL card is
like my dinner as I always save the best for last. This Monday Night
Football could be a complete blow out as the Ravens have zero pass defense.
Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are turning back the clock to 2008 and I'm
sure Bruce Arians will have a plan to limit the 'Flacco to Smith' Raven game
plan. It opened at minus six and a half and has escalated up through the
touchdown. I still like the Cardinals at any level up to and including minus
nine and a half.
Cardinals -7.5
Rams -5.5
Lions +2.5
Falcons -4.5Colts -4.5
Jimmy
Friday 23 October 2015
Goal Rush Saturday
Good
afternoon Team
Rory
Donnelly scored a last minute winner for Gillingham last Saturday which
although doing nothing for our Over 2.5 goals or Yes on BTTS bets took us to
40-0 for over 0.5 goals. For the week last Saturday we went 1-3 and
although I am not throwing my hands to the air in despair just yet any week in
which we go less than .500 disappoints me. It is something I will be monitoring
but I will say that the other games that were filtered out did no better so it
was not a case of the further analysis letting us down. The up to date stats
are below:
Over 1.5
goals 34-6
Over 2.5
goals 26-14
Over 3.5
goals 14-26
BTTS 28-12
to Yes
20 home
wins, 6 draws and 14 away wins
The teams
met five times last season in League and Cup action and every game went over
1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals only went 2-3 but the home team scored at least twice
in each of the five meetings. Scunthorpe managed seven goals in those five
meetings so will be confident of finding the net on the road here. Prior to
last season Yes on BTTS had landed in five straight meetings of the sides
stretching back to August 2009 as this is a fiercely contested local derby. The
fourteen combined games in this spot this season, Chesterfield home and
Scunthorpe away, have seen no fewer than fifty goals! Overs for me here team.
Over 2.5
goals has hit in three successive meetings of the sides at this venue. In fact
those three games have seen 6, 5 and 7 goals respectively so asking for there
just to be three goals in this game does not seem too much of an ask! Games
involving the home side this season are averaging 2.82 games whilst the away
team are averaging a full goal more at 3.82 goals. Give me the over 2.5 goals
as a solid selection here.
Bottom
placed FC Zurich host mid table St Gallen and the home fans have certainly been
entertained by goals this season. Twenty four goals have been scored in those
five games with Yes on BTTS going 5-0. St Gallen have been involved in many low
scoring games this season as they have gone 10-2 to the unders which is
probably why this game is priced at this level rather than around 4/7. It is
27-10 to the over 2.5 goals when these two sides meet since August 2003 so even
at this price level I am keen to support the overs hitting once more.
To sign up
for the Division Two Stats Pack please click here http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-revamped-division-2-stats-pack.html Just
£25 for the full season is incredible value!
Jimmy
Saturday 17 October 2015
NFL Week Six
NFL Week Six
Redskins @ Jets -6.5
I like the Jets to keep rolling here as I am not sure how Washington move the ball here? It will be rough and tough ground and pound football from the Jets but in Decker and Marshall they have two competent receivers to help move the chains. The under 40.5 also interest me.
Cardinals @ Steelers +4
Michael Vick was terrible in the Steelers' road win in San Diego. Here they welcome a really tough defense and an Arizona offense that just keeps rolling. Arizona will make Pittsburgh one dimensional and although I'd love to take Pittsburgh plus the points at home I just can't. Take Arizona.
Chiefs @ Vikings -3.5
How do KC move the ball here? Of course they will do at times but moving it consistently enough to keep in this game may be beyond them. Minnesota should move the chains with AP and that ground game in itself will probably be enough for the Vikings to win this one. Minnesota minus the points is my favourite bet of week.
Bengals @ Bills +3
LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are back to give Buffalo a different option rather than just relying on their quarterbacks scrambling ability. This is the real test for Dalton, on the road in a VERY hostile environment. I lean to the unders on the 43 point line but would rather watch this and take learning points for the future.
Bears @ Lions -3.5
At the beginning of the season this look ahead line was Detroit -5 and have the books really adjusted enough for this dreadful Detroit team? Coaching and quarterback edge to the Bears means I will be taking Chicago plus the points but it does feel like a trap!
Broncos @ Browns +4
I sooooooooo want to take the Brownies but isn't this the game where Josh McCown throws eight interceptions? Denver straight up is the only play I'd consider making but if you want to get some extra value think about coupling it up with the under 42 points.
Texans @ Jaguars -2
Good lord how were the Texans initially favoured here by a point before a slight line move. Oh yeah, Jacksonville keep finding ways to lose. The Jags are two dimensional though as they can lose low scoring games like they did in Indianapolis a fortnight ago and they can lose shootouts in Tampa last Sunday. I will take the Jags..........shoot me later!
Dolphins @ Titans -1.5
The interim head coach at Miami, I forget his name and let's be honest nobody knows his name, is talking tough and laying the smack down on his players. Ok Mr Whoever they don't care, you won't be there next year, they know that and they've all already been paid! I trust Mariota and the improving Titans to get it done in this one.
Panthers @ Seahawks -7
Should the Hawks be laying this many points to any half decent team, even at home? I will take Cam to keep it close and with two slow moving offenses slugging it out against two hard nosed defenses I will take a slice of the under 41 points.
Chargers @ Packers -10
Rodgers should slice and dice this San Diego defense travelling cross country on a short week. The only thing the Chargers have going for them is that it is a late afternoon kick off in Lambeau. Green Bay played poorly last week at home to St Louis but they still covered and won by double digits. Packers!
Ravens @ 49ers +2
What a nonsense line this is. Baltimore are poor, they get minimal pass rush and if Kaepernick gets his legs moving then he could win this game on his own for San Fran. Give me the home dog!
Patriots @ Colts -9
The FU tour of America enters Indianapolis this Sunday night. Even without 'Deflategate' the Pats have had the Colts' number for a while now. I'd only consider backing the Colts if this number got to double digits. The points line is very high, possibly shaded high because it's Luck v Brady on prime time with New England in revenge mode. I can't see though how the Colts score a lot of points so the under would appeal if not for the fact that the Pats may decide to run up the score.
Giants @ Eagles -5.5
Who will Eli throw to if Beckham and Randle are out? The line opened minus four and has edged up. This is a notoriously tough divisional game so five and a half is a lot of points to give up but back to my original point, who will Eli throw to? I shade to the Eagles.
SuperContest Selections
So far I am 16-9 through five weeks and I am delighted with the success so far of my just for fun picks (leader is 21-4). Here we go for this week with my selections as I aim to improve on my 4-1 week last Sunday.
Vikings -4
Jets -6
49ers +2.5
Eagles -4.5
Titans +2
Enjoy what should be a great slate of games, bet responsibility and best of luck
Jimmy
Redskins @ Jets -6.5
I like the Jets to keep rolling here as I am not sure how Washington move the ball here? It will be rough and tough ground and pound football from the Jets but in Decker and Marshall they have two competent receivers to help move the chains. The under 40.5 also interest me.
Cardinals @ Steelers +4
Michael Vick was terrible in the Steelers' road win in San Diego. Here they welcome a really tough defense and an Arizona offense that just keeps rolling. Arizona will make Pittsburgh one dimensional and although I'd love to take Pittsburgh plus the points at home I just can't. Take Arizona.
Chiefs @ Vikings -3.5
How do KC move the ball here? Of course they will do at times but moving it consistently enough to keep in this game may be beyond them. Minnesota should move the chains with AP and that ground game in itself will probably be enough for the Vikings to win this one. Minnesota minus the points is my favourite bet of week.
Bengals @ Bills +3
LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are back to give Buffalo a different option rather than just relying on their quarterbacks scrambling ability. This is the real test for Dalton, on the road in a VERY hostile environment. I lean to the unders on the 43 point line but would rather watch this and take learning points for the future.
Bears @ Lions -3.5
At the beginning of the season this look ahead line was Detroit -5 and have the books really adjusted enough for this dreadful Detroit team? Coaching and quarterback edge to the Bears means I will be taking Chicago plus the points but it does feel like a trap!
Broncos @ Browns +4
I sooooooooo want to take the Brownies but isn't this the game where Josh McCown throws eight interceptions? Denver straight up is the only play I'd consider making but if you want to get some extra value think about coupling it up with the under 42 points.
Texans @ Jaguars -2
Good lord how were the Texans initially favoured here by a point before a slight line move. Oh yeah, Jacksonville keep finding ways to lose. The Jags are two dimensional though as they can lose low scoring games like they did in Indianapolis a fortnight ago and they can lose shootouts in Tampa last Sunday. I will take the Jags..........shoot me later!
Dolphins @ Titans -1.5
The interim head coach at Miami, I forget his name and let's be honest nobody knows his name, is talking tough and laying the smack down on his players. Ok Mr Whoever they don't care, you won't be there next year, they know that and they've all already been paid! I trust Mariota and the improving Titans to get it done in this one.
Panthers @ Seahawks -7
Should the Hawks be laying this many points to any half decent team, even at home? I will take Cam to keep it close and with two slow moving offenses slugging it out against two hard nosed defenses I will take a slice of the under 41 points.
Chargers @ Packers -10
Rodgers should slice and dice this San Diego defense travelling cross country on a short week. The only thing the Chargers have going for them is that it is a late afternoon kick off in Lambeau. Green Bay played poorly last week at home to St Louis but they still covered and won by double digits. Packers!
Ravens @ 49ers +2
What a nonsense line this is. Baltimore are poor, they get minimal pass rush and if Kaepernick gets his legs moving then he could win this game on his own for San Fran. Give me the home dog!
Patriots @ Colts -9
The FU tour of America enters Indianapolis this Sunday night. Even without 'Deflategate' the Pats have had the Colts' number for a while now. I'd only consider backing the Colts if this number got to double digits. The points line is very high, possibly shaded high because it's Luck v Brady on prime time with New England in revenge mode. I can't see though how the Colts score a lot of points so the under would appeal if not for the fact that the Pats may decide to run up the score.
Giants @ Eagles -5.5
Who will Eli throw to if Beckham and Randle are out? The line opened minus four and has edged up. This is a notoriously tough divisional game so five and a half is a lot of points to give up but back to my original point, who will Eli throw to? I shade to the Eagles.
SuperContest Selections
So far I am 16-9 through five weeks and I am delighted with the success so far of my just for fun picks (leader is 21-4). Here we go for this week with my selections as I aim to improve on my 4-1 week last Sunday.
Vikings -4
Jets -6
49ers +2.5
Eagles -4.5
Titans +2
Enjoy what should be a great slate of games, bet responsibility and best of luck
Jimmy
Thursday 15 October 2015
Goal Rush Saturday
Morning Team Goals
I know most of you only care about the selections that I put forward but I do like to ramble on and explain in more detail about this project. For some of you I am sure this will help you with your own ideas moving forward.
It's been a very successful season so far in terms of highlighting games that are likely to be over 2.5 goals (my initial desire) and Yes on BTTS. I know a lot of you enjoy playing the over 0.5 and 1.5 goal markets via accumulators so thought I'd lay down the stats on those as well. The bets we typically go for on the over 2.5 goals are priced around the 1.7-1.9 (8/11 & 10/11) range. This mean the over 0.5 and 1.5 price are typically lower than you'd usually expect, within the 1.05-1.07 and 1.22-1.27 range.So in view of those lower prices I am not convinced that over the long term playing singles on those two markets would prove that profitable. At present they would but I think we need longer term analysis before any definitive conclusions are drawn.
The full stats are highlighted below:
Over 0.5 goals 36-0
Over 1.5 goals 31-5
Over 2.5 goals 25-11
Over 3.5 goals 14-22
BTTS 26-10 to Yes
19 home wins, 5 draws and 12 away wins
I have had a few emails and tweets asking how I am selecting these games. The simple answer is that I run all games through a test to assess their credentials to be considered as a potential #GoalRush game. I do have a criteria that needs to be met and then the games that meet that are then assessed in greater detail. At present that secondary check does not have any criteria it is more a case of me using my analytical skills and judgement. I then put forward my selections to you and as I know people's bankrolls are not limitless I aim to provide you with a maximum of four/five selections on any one day.
For the record, this Saturday there were thirty one games across Europe and other major world leagues that hit the initial criteria. Some are eliminated on price and others after the secondary checks flag up issues. Why am I eliminating games on price? Well if all games hit a criteria why are we backing games at 1/2 that have the same characteristics of games priced at 8/11. That is quite a bit of extra value and also losing bets, which we will undoubtedly have, hit our ROI far less at a price of 8/11 than a loser at 1/2 does. From this week onwards I will also detail the best current available market price.
Anyway, less of the rambling and let's go on to the only bit that most of you care about, the selections!
Crewe v Gillingham @ 8/11 , English League One 3pm kick off UK time
At least two goals in all of the eight league meetings of the sides since November 2010. Overs has hit at a rate of 6-2. Twenty goals in Crewe's six home games and sixteen in Gillingham's six away games suggests goals will be on offer here too. Twenty five goals have flown in when Gillingham take on lower half opposition in seven games but given their high flying start its pleasing that they've conceded nine of them. Overs looks a great shout here.
Millwall v Swindon @ 4/5 , English League One 3pm kick off UK time
There have been seventeen total goals in Millwall's five home games so far this campaign. Swindon on the road have seen nineteen total goals in six games. They have played ten total games against similar bottom half opponents and a total of thirty three goals have been scored. Millwall have not kept a clean sheet at home this season and in only one of those five games have they conceded just once. Another solid play in a division that always looks to offer some good value in these bets.
Standard Liege v Westerloo @ 7/11 , Belgium Pro League 5pm kick off UK time
A real bottom of the table match here as 15th placed Standard Liege take on 16th placed Westerloo. Both meetings saw Yes on BTTS land last season as the matches finished 1-1 and 2-2. Their twenty total games this season have seen sixty five total goals. Goals in the Belgian Pro League are averaging 2.74 goals per game so I'm happy to take the overs here as neither team can defend.
FC Utrecht v Roda JC @ 8/13 , Netherlands Eridivisie 745pm kick off UK time
When these sides have met in Utrecht the over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 since January 2008 with the other match seeing two goals and a Yes on BTTS in a 1-1 draw. Eridivisie football is traditionally open with the league currently averaging 2.83 goals per game and the over 1.5 goals hitting at a rate of 83%. Given the history of goals between these two teams I love the over 2.5 goals.
Well there we have it, four games for you this weekend. Let's look to go at least 3-1 and keep the train rolling down the tracks.
All the best of British luck in your betting this weekend and speak soon.
Jimmy
I know most of you only care about the selections that I put forward but I do like to ramble on and explain in more detail about this project. For some of you I am sure this will help you with your own ideas moving forward.
It's been a very successful season so far in terms of highlighting games that are likely to be over 2.5 goals (my initial desire) and Yes on BTTS. I know a lot of you enjoy playing the over 0.5 and 1.5 goal markets via accumulators so thought I'd lay down the stats on those as well. The bets we typically go for on the over 2.5 goals are priced around the 1.7-1.9 (8/11 & 10/11) range. This mean the over 0.5 and 1.5 price are typically lower than you'd usually expect, within the 1.05-1.07 and 1.22-1.27 range.So in view of those lower prices I am not convinced that over the long term playing singles on those two markets would prove that profitable. At present they would but I think we need longer term analysis before any definitive conclusions are drawn.
The full stats are highlighted below:
Over 0.5 goals 36-0
Over 1.5 goals 31-5
Over 2.5 goals 25-11
Over 3.5 goals 14-22
BTTS 26-10 to Yes
19 home wins, 5 draws and 12 away wins
I have had a few emails and tweets asking how I am selecting these games. The simple answer is that I run all games through a test to assess their credentials to be considered as a potential #GoalRush game. I do have a criteria that needs to be met and then the games that meet that are then assessed in greater detail. At present that secondary check does not have any criteria it is more a case of me using my analytical skills and judgement. I then put forward my selections to you and as I know people's bankrolls are not limitless I aim to provide you with a maximum of four/five selections on any one day.
For the record, this Saturday there were thirty one games across Europe and other major world leagues that hit the initial criteria. Some are eliminated on price and others after the secondary checks flag up issues. Why am I eliminating games on price? Well if all games hit a criteria why are we backing games at 1/2 that have the same characteristics of games priced at 8/11. That is quite a bit of extra value and also losing bets, which we will undoubtedly have, hit our ROI far less at a price of 8/11 than a loser at 1/2 does. From this week onwards I will also detail the best current available market price.
Anyway, less of the rambling and let's go on to the only bit that most of you care about, the selections!
Crewe v Gillingham @ 8/11 , English League One 3pm kick off UK time
At least two goals in all of the eight league meetings of the sides since November 2010. Overs has hit at a rate of 6-2. Twenty goals in Crewe's six home games and sixteen in Gillingham's six away games suggests goals will be on offer here too. Twenty five goals have flown in when Gillingham take on lower half opposition in seven games but given their high flying start its pleasing that they've conceded nine of them. Overs looks a great shout here.
Millwall v Swindon @ 4/5 , English League One 3pm kick off UK time
There have been seventeen total goals in Millwall's five home games so far this campaign. Swindon on the road have seen nineteen total goals in six games. They have played ten total games against similar bottom half opponents and a total of thirty three goals have been scored. Millwall have not kept a clean sheet at home this season and in only one of those five games have they conceded just once. Another solid play in a division that always looks to offer some good value in these bets.
Standard Liege v Westerloo @ 7/11 , Belgium Pro League 5pm kick off UK time
A real bottom of the table match here as 15th placed Standard Liege take on 16th placed Westerloo. Both meetings saw Yes on BTTS land last season as the matches finished 1-1 and 2-2. Their twenty total games this season have seen sixty five total goals. Goals in the Belgian Pro League are averaging 2.74 goals per game so I'm happy to take the overs here as neither team can defend.
FC Utrecht v Roda JC @ 8/13 , Netherlands Eridivisie 745pm kick off UK time
When these sides have met in Utrecht the over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 since January 2008 with the other match seeing two goals and a Yes on BTTS in a 1-1 draw. Eridivisie football is traditionally open with the league currently averaging 2.83 goals per game and the over 1.5 goals hitting at a rate of 83%. Given the history of goals between these two teams I love the over 2.5 goals.
Well there we have it, four games for you this weekend. Let's look to go at least 3-1 and keep the train rolling down the tracks.
All the best of British luck in your betting this weekend and speak soon.
Jimmy
Saturday 10 October 2015
NFL Sunday Week 5
NFL Week 5
Morning all and here we go with another exciting NFL Sunday!
Bears @ Chiefs -9.5
This is a big number for the Chiefs to cover considering they refuse to throw the ball downfield. Chicago battled hard last week to get their first win of the season and they should keep it close enough here to cash a +9.5 ticket.
Seahawks @ Bengals -3
This Bengals defensive front could run riot here against this patchwork Seahawks O line. It's travel on a short week for the Hawks and I have to side with Cincinnati going 5-0. Dalton and Lewis to be 5-0? Frightening isn't it!
Redskins @ Falcons -7
Atalanta are rolling and I can't see Cousins keeping this close on the road. I shied away from Atlanta last week but I won't this Sunday as Matt Ryan should torch this porous Washington secondary. Atalanta to cover but with both teams committing to the run I lean heavily to the under on the total of 48.
Jaguars @ Buccaneers -3
Bet on this at your peril. If I had to bet this game I'd go with some of the over 42 points as both quarterbacks are likely to throw a pick six!
Saints @ Eagles -5.5
The Eagles should get some success here against a last placed Saints defense. Brees on the road outside of a dome does not appeal to me at all and this Eagles defense is playing at a decent level. Load up on Chip Kelly and his men.
Browns @ Ravens -6.5
Baltimore have dominated the meetings historically but they are missing Steve Smith. I lean towards the away dog but will not be betting them unless I can get plus seven which, as I write, is available. With Baltimore looking to run run run the ball I'm happy to take a slice of the under 43.5 points.
Rams @ Packers -9.5
Jeff Fisher will take his side to Wisconsin loving their dog status for this game. This is a big number but hey it's the Packers in Lambeau and all they do is win! Todd Gurley is a beast though and the Packers cannot stop the run. I could only back the Packers Straight Up here.
Bills @ Titans +1
Tennessee are coming off of a bye here and they sense they are still in the divisional title race. Buffalo had a wake up call last week and without many of their offensive options this will be placed entirely on the back of their defense. This could end up 17-13, 14-10 or even 12-9 the performance of some of the kickers this season! Give me some of the under 42 points.
Cardinals @ Lions +3
The Lions' season is over after that heartbreaking loss last Monday Night Football. Will the crowd turn out in force to get behind them willing them to win or will they just tune out? I will take Carson Palmer to get the job done straight up on the road.
Patriots @ Cowboys +9
New England come off of a bye for their trip to big D and it's hard to make a case for anything other than a blow out Patriots win. Greg Hardy is back after suspension for the Cowboys and to celebrate this he has been talking guns and verbally abused Mrs Brady, do these clowns ever learn? With two weeks to scheme this game up I see New England winning by 14+ points.
Broncos @ Raiders +4.5
As with last last week against the Vikings I will look to oppose Denver in this one. The weather will not be a problem for Peyton Manning but this young spunky Oakland team should keep it at least close.
49ers @ Giants -7
Having see Colin Kaepernick play at home last Sunday I would want at least eleven points on the road before I could consider backing him. If they find a way to get him mobile they have a chance but I can't see it and I almost think he has the dreaded 'yips'. GMen for me to win and cover.
Steelers @ Chargers -3.5
Pittsburgh are pretty banged up going into this one and I would want to wait until nearer kick off before making my bets. I lean towards the away dog and the over but not willing to dip my toe into the betting water just yet.
My 'just for fun' SuperContest picks are 12-8 and this week I do quite like my selections. I've never gone 5-0 but maybe one week hey.......
Cardinals -2.5
Eagles -4.5
Giants -7
Patriots -8.5
Titans +2.5
Whatever you bet this Sunday may I wish you the very best of British luck!
Speak soon
Jimmy
Friday 9 October 2015
No EPL No Problem
I acknowledge that bookmakers have to react to what they see and the public perception of teams but after just eight games I see a big error made by them. I also see an under reaction to a recent change of management at a Premiership club.
One of the best bets that I have found for a while is one that can be made against Watford. The Hornets are 5/1 with Coral for relegation and to me that is a huge price. Weren't they odds on for the drop eight games ago? Watford could not have had a better start to the season as they have lost just two of their eight fixtures. Their 2-4-2 record shows them to be a side with great resilience and one that is difficult to beat. Those are admirable qualities for any team to possess but are they always the ones that prevent teams from being relegated? Delving deeper into the stats and the fixture compilers have shown Watford a kind hand early in the season. Unlike Leicester who have gained five extra points from a similarly comfortable start to the season Watford may rue these early season missed opportunities. Their home form is concerning and when I say their form it is more their lack of goal scoring as they have netted just once in four games at Vicarage Road. Admittedly those games have been against established Premiership teams in the shape of Crystal Palace, Southampton, Swansea and West Bromwich Albion. However, this means they are yet to welcome the bigger names from the league to Vicarage Road and I have no faith they can find the net against the Premierships elite. So to recap Watford have had a great start to the season but obtained just ten points from eight games! That kind of points return from those games should mean they are embroiled in the relegation battle all season. At the market price of 5/1 I do not see them giving you at least a great run for your money as even if they do stay up I do not envisage them being safe until the very end of the season.
The big talking point in the Premiership this international break has been the two managerial changes that have taken place. As predicted by myself a few weeks Sam Allardyce has taken over at Sunderland. The big man has a proven track record in this league and I expect an instant impact from him in terms of improved performances on the pitch. He also has the benefit of a very favourable run of fixtures coming up and I foresee them obtaining at least eight points and maybe a few more from their next six games. If they do that they should dramatically close the gap between themselves and the safety that is seventeenth place. They are a best priced 7/2 with Boyle Sports and Coral to stay up. That is a massive price as he is a genuine course and distance 'winner' and let's be honest Sunderland are not that worse than any of the other bottom feeders of the league. With more discipline and organisation, which Allardyce will bring to the Mackems, then they should be fine!
Over to Anfield and a new era dawns as Jurgen Klopp has been appointed the new manager following the sacking of Brendan Rodgers. In the short term I think this will bring a much needed lift to the atmosphere around Anfield. Klopp is a passionate man and his excitement for the game and for the success of his team is clear to see. Many criticised Rodgers for being too cold, clinical and almost devoid of any emotion on the touchline. This will never be said of Klopp! I say a lift in the short term as I sense there is some significant work to be done at Anfield in terms of player personnel and these issues are heightened by a new manager coming in. Klopps early games are Spurs (away), Southampton (home), Chelsea (away), Crystal Palace (home) and Manchester City (away). That is a very tough five game opening stretch. How they perform in those opening five games will tell us a lot about how they may progress for the rest of the season. Given Rodgers' poor record as Liverpool boss in games against the big teams you have to think a haul of six or more points in those games would be viewed as a positive return. Klopp has had tremendous success at his former clubs, Mainz and Borussia Dortmund, but when the tide has turned he at times seemed powerless to right the ship. If those tough early games go against him and with no transfer window until the New Year how will his emotions cope? Long term I'm not sure whether to suggest the 25/1 from BetVictor of Liverpool finishing in the bottom half or the widely available 5/2 on them finishing in the top four. That is how uncertain I am on how successful the popular German will be. Playing on emotion alone lasts for only a few weeks in the Premiership so Klopp will need to show he has the tactical nous as well as the emotion needed to capture the hearts of the fans on The Kop. Whatever happens it will surely be a roller coaster ride for their supporters, both in the stands and in the betting markets.
So even without an EPL card there does appear to be some value out there if you are prepared to tie your funds up for the longer term. Whether you decide to take any of the 7/2 on Sunderland to succeed or the 5/1 on Watford to fail it is up to you.
Many thanks for taking the time to read this article and may all your bets this weekend be winning ones.
Speak tomorrow when I will be back with my NFL thoughts for a big NFL Sunday card.
All the best
Jimmy
One of the best bets that I have found for a while is one that can be made against Watford. The Hornets are 5/1 with Coral for relegation and to me that is a huge price. Weren't they odds on for the drop eight games ago? Watford could not have had a better start to the season as they have lost just two of their eight fixtures. Their 2-4-2 record shows them to be a side with great resilience and one that is difficult to beat. Those are admirable qualities for any team to possess but are they always the ones that prevent teams from being relegated? Delving deeper into the stats and the fixture compilers have shown Watford a kind hand early in the season. Unlike Leicester who have gained five extra points from a similarly comfortable start to the season Watford may rue these early season missed opportunities. Their home form is concerning and when I say their form it is more their lack of goal scoring as they have netted just once in four games at Vicarage Road. Admittedly those games have been against established Premiership teams in the shape of Crystal Palace, Southampton, Swansea and West Bromwich Albion. However, this means they are yet to welcome the bigger names from the league to Vicarage Road and I have no faith they can find the net against the Premierships elite. So to recap Watford have had a great start to the season but obtained just ten points from eight games! That kind of points return from those games should mean they are embroiled in the relegation battle all season. At the market price of 5/1 I do not see them giving you at least a great run for your money as even if they do stay up I do not envisage them being safe until the very end of the season.
The big talking point in the Premiership this international break has been the two managerial changes that have taken place. As predicted by myself a few weeks Sam Allardyce has taken over at Sunderland. The big man has a proven track record in this league and I expect an instant impact from him in terms of improved performances on the pitch. He also has the benefit of a very favourable run of fixtures coming up and I foresee them obtaining at least eight points and maybe a few more from their next six games. If they do that they should dramatically close the gap between themselves and the safety that is seventeenth place. They are a best priced 7/2 with Boyle Sports and Coral to stay up. That is a massive price as he is a genuine course and distance 'winner' and let's be honest Sunderland are not that worse than any of the other bottom feeders of the league. With more discipline and organisation, which Allardyce will bring to the Mackems, then they should be fine!
Over to Anfield and a new era dawns as Jurgen Klopp has been appointed the new manager following the sacking of Brendan Rodgers. In the short term I think this will bring a much needed lift to the atmosphere around Anfield. Klopp is a passionate man and his excitement for the game and for the success of his team is clear to see. Many criticised Rodgers for being too cold, clinical and almost devoid of any emotion on the touchline. This will never be said of Klopp! I say a lift in the short term as I sense there is some significant work to be done at Anfield in terms of player personnel and these issues are heightened by a new manager coming in. Klopps early games are Spurs (away), Southampton (home), Chelsea (away), Crystal Palace (home) and Manchester City (away). That is a very tough five game opening stretch. How they perform in those opening five games will tell us a lot about how they may progress for the rest of the season. Given Rodgers' poor record as Liverpool boss in games against the big teams you have to think a haul of six or more points in those games would be viewed as a positive return. Klopp has had tremendous success at his former clubs, Mainz and Borussia Dortmund, but when the tide has turned he at times seemed powerless to right the ship. If those tough early games go against him and with no transfer window until the New Year how will his emotions cope? Long term I'm not sure whether to suggest the 25/1 from BetVictor of Liverpool finishing in the bottom half or the widely available 5/2 on them finishing in the top four. That is how uncertain I am on how successful the popular German will be. Playing on emotion alone lasts for only a few weeks in the Premiership so Klopp will need to show he has the tactical nous as well as the emotion needed to capture the hearts of the fans on The Kop. Whatever happens it will surely be a roller coaster ride for their supporters, both in the stands and in the betting markets.
So even without an EPL card there does appear to be some value out there if you are prepared to tie your funds up for the longer term. Whether you decide to take any of the 7/2 on Sunderland to succeed or the 5/1 on Watford to fail it is up to you.
Many thanks for taking the time to read this article and may all your bets this weekend be winning ones.
Speak tomorrow when I will be back with my NFL thoughts for a big NFL Sunday card.
All the best
Jimmy
Thursday 8 October 2015
Goal Rush Saturday
Morning Team Goals
An absolute shambles of a showing from me as seen me lose all of my work just as I went to post it on the blog today. The joys, or perils, of working on the move from an iPad!
You will just need to trust me that the research has all been done as I will be honest, I simply cannot be bothered to write it all out again lol.
The games this Saturday, there are just two that hit the criteria and further stringent research, are as below:
Barnsley v Crewe Alexandra, English Division One, 3pm UK time
Colorado Rapids v Montreal Impact, MLS, 11pm UK Time
So far the results this season have been exceptional
Over 1.5 goals 30-4
Over 2.5 goals 24-10
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7 and 7
BTTS 25-9 to the Yes
19 home wins, 5 draws and 10 away wins
Best of luck with what you bet this weekend folks and I will be back tomorrow with a special EPL column and also over the weekend with my NFL thoughts.
Speak soon
Jimmy
Saturday 3 October 2015
Goal Rush Sunday
Sunday Goal Rush
So after yesterday's 2-1 performance the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:
Over 1.5 goals 26-4
Over 2.5 goals 22-8
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7 and 7
BTTS 21-9 to the Yes
18 home wins, 3 draws and 9 away wins
Today we have no fewer than four games for us to get involved in. A couple of nice odds against prices and a couple just the other side of the Even money mark.
Monaco v Rennes, France Ligue 1, 1pm kick off UK time
This is the biggest price bet of the day at a best price of around 13/10. Ninth placed Monaco have scored eight goals in their last three games so they come into this game in fine goal scoring form. Rennes currently lie third in the table following a good start to the season. They've only managed two clean sheets in eight games but thankfully they have found the net in all eight games themselves. Under 2.5 goals is 4-0 in Rennes last four games which is where this juicy price comes from. The Yes on BTTS has hit in three of those as 1-1 draws account for three of those last four games for the visitors. Give me the over 2.5 goals.
L'Orient v Bordeaux, France Ligue 1, 4pm kick off UK time
This is another French game with a price of over Even money for the over 2.5 goals as this over is priced at around 23/20. Both teams last five league games this season have seen at least two goals. Bordeaux have scored in all but one of their games this season but that game was way to Lille, a strange/boring side, who have seen just eight total goals in their nine league games this season. The last four meetings of the teams stretching back to November 2012 have seen at least two goals and at odds against for the over 2.5 goals this looks a good risk/reward play.
Gent v Club Brugge, Belgium Pro League, 130pm kick off UK time
There have been twenty nine goals in Club Brugge's nine games this season whilst agent have scored in eight of their nine league games this campaign. The last five total Pro League meetings of the teams has hit an over get whilst the last six straight League games in Gent have seen at least three goals. Give me overs here!
Zaglebie Lubin v Slask Wraclow, Poland Ekstraklasa, 230pm kick off UK time
These sides' twenty league games so far this season have seen a total of sixty four goals. The last six league matches for Lubin have seen both Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Five of the last six league games for Slask Wraclow have hit Yes on BTTS. When the sides have met since November 2012 it's been 4-2 to the overs but interestingly every game in Lubin has gone over 2.5 goals. Let's take that to continue this Sunday.
Best of luck with what you bet today and here's hoping for a 3-1 day, or better!
Speak soon
Jimmy
So after yesterday's 2-1 performance the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:
Over 1.5 goals 26-4
Over 2.5 goals 22-8
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7 and 7
BTTS 21-9 to the Yes
18 home wins, 3 draws and 9 away wins
Today we have no fewer than four games for us to get involved in. A couple of nice odds against prices and a couple just the other side of the Even money mark.
Monaco v Rennes, France Ligue 1, 1pm kick off UK time
This is the biggest price bet of the day at a best price of around 13/10. Ninth placed Monaco have scored eight goals in their last three games so they come into this game in fine goal scoring form. Rennes currently lie third in the table following a good start to the season. They've only managed two clean sheets in eight games but thankfully they have found the net in all eight games themselves. Under 2.5 goals is 4-0 in Rennes last four games which is where this juicy price comes from. The Yes on BTTS has hit in three of those as 1-1 draws account for three of those last four games for the visitors. Give me the over 2.5 goals.
L'Orient v Bordeaux, France Ligue 1, 4pm kick off UK time
This is another French game with a price of over Even money for the over 2.5 goals as this over is priced at around 23/20. Both teams last five league games this season have seen at least two goals. Bordeaux have scored in all but one of their games this season but that game was way to Lille, a strange/boring side, who have seen just eight total goals in their nine league games this season. The last four meetings of the teams stretching back to November 2012 have seen at least two goals and at odds against for the over 2.5 goals this looks a good risk/reward play.
Gent v Club Brugge, Belgium Pro League, 130pm kick off UK time
There have been twenty nine goals in Club Brugge's nine games this season whilst agent have scored in eight of their nine league games this campaign. The last five total Pro League meetings of the teams has hit an over get whilst the last six straight League games in Gent have seen at least three goals. Give me overs here!
Zaglebie Lubin v Slask Wraclow, Poland Ekstraklasa, 230pm kick off UK time
These sides' twenty league games so far this season have seen a total of sixty four goals. The last six league matches for Lubin have seen both Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Five of the last six league games for Slask Wraclow have hit Yes on BTTS. When the sides have met since November 2012 it's been 4-2 to the overs but interestingly every game in Lubin has gone over 2.5 goals. Let's take that to continue this Sunday.
Best of luck with what you bet today and here's hoping for a 3-1 day, or better!
Speak soon
Jimmy
NFL Sunday
NFL Week Four folks and by now the form lines are definitely shaping which should present us with some good opportunities moving forward. With the updated consensus market lines let's go through the card.
Panthers @ Buccaneers +3
Tampa Bay are proving a tough out since that opening day debacle at home to Tennessee. Carolina are not a free scoring offense but their lack of weapons is outweighed by a dodgy Buccs secondary. Cam Newton should get this done but on the road I could only consider backing them Straight Up.
Eagles @ Redskins +3
Washington are another team who are fighting hard but just do not appear to have the quality required to put in consistent performance. If DeSean Jackson is back for Washington then this could help them in their run game as he does pose a deep threat. Philly wobbled their way to a victory last weekend and I think they'll just about do the same here, just!
Giants @ Bills -5.5
We are getting into dangerous territory here for Buffalo now, favouriteville. It's been many a year since the Bills were so highly rated and I want to see them deliver in this spot first before I wager my hard earned money on them. The GMen are just a few plays away from being 3-0 so I will take the points with them.
Jaguars @ Colts -8
This is a big number, bouncing between 7 and 9, for the Colts to cover but Andrew Luck (if he starts) has delivered historically in these spots in divisional games. However the Colts have been favoured in each game so far this season and are 0-3 ATS. Luck is a major injury doubt and even if he does start he sounds as if he will be limited. The Jags are a live dog but can you trust them on the road, failing that there could be plenty of garbage time if Luck does click so a big chance of a back door cover.
Texans @ Falcons -6
Atlanta are 3-0 but have been behind in the 4th quarter in each of those games. The Texans should be able to stay close enough in this game and if Arian Foster is back you can't tell me they can't win this game Straight Up. Houston should hang in there and keep it close to the very end so grab those points.
Raiders @ Bears +3
The Rrrrrrrrrraiders are favourite on the road, incredible scenes! It's not surprising though given the fire sale we have seen at Chicago this week with players traded left, right and centre! Can you really trust Oakland offered up as a favourite on the road? Yes they won last week in Cleveland but they were still classed as a dog. If Cutler is back that will help greatly for Chicago but even if he isn't John Fox may just find a way to scheme a win out of this.
Chiefs @ Bengals -4
Cincinnati won a crazy game last week on the road in Baltimore and they face the Chiefs who are on the road again on a short week. Steve Smith showed last week that you can attack this Cincinatti secondary but will Alex Smith even attempt to go after them? If forced to bet this game I'd lean to the Bengals.
Browns @ Chargers -7.5
Not sure I could ever back San Diego minus eight points in any game. However, the uncertainty in Cleveland makes it hard to support them in this game. It'll have to be their defense that wins them the game but the hot San Diego weather may just drain all of the energy out of them.
Vikings @ Broncos -6.5
This will be AP versus the Broncos as Minnesota will look to pound the ground game and keep this game tight. This tactic will suit Denver as they are happy to put it in the hands of their defense as they transition away from the Manning style shoot outs of the past. I really like the under 43 points here.
Rams @ Cardinals -7
I said a couple of weeks ago I would not want to lay much more than a field goal with this Cardinals team. How wrong I've been as they've laid the smack down to both the Bears and 49ers in the past fortnight. Here they meet a much more organised and talented team than either of those two teams but still I lean towards them rather than taking the points.
Packers @ 49ers +7.5
This is a crazy line. Yes the Packers should win the game but they are playing on a short week and travelling east coast to west coast. We've seen how San Fran performed as a home dog against Minnesota and if Colin Kaerpernick can be convinced not to throw the ball to the opposition they can keep this close. I also lean to the over 47.5 points in this game. Remember the problems CK7 has caused this Dom Capers defense on the ground before?
Cowboys @ Saints -3
Tony Romo travels with his Dallas Cowboys to take on Drew Brees' New Orleans Saints team..........or he was set to when the TV schedulers selected this as America's Sunday Night Football. Brees may be back but give me the Cowboys to grind it on the ground and get the road win to send New Orleans to 0-4.
Jets @ Dolphins in London Jets -1.5
This is a must win for both games even this early in the season. Despite early season thoughts to the contrary it is now fairly obvious that the Patriots will win this division so these two teams are resigned to battling for the Play Offs. The unknowns of the London trip are a concern for all bettors in this game. If pushed into a bet give me the Jets and a spot of the overs.
Lions @ Seahawks -10
This could be ugly! The Lions look a truly dishevelled organisation whilst the Seahawks are looking to get back into their divisional race. They are two games behind Arizona and know that any further slip ups will almost certainly see them being Wild Card only contenders. Loud and proud stand the twelfth man and they should win and cover here.
My selections in the SuperContest (just for fun) are going well. Three consecutive weeks of 3-2 sees me at 9-6. If only I had done that the year I actually took part in the contest as at this stage I was 4-11 and contemplating doing that freefall jump off of the Stratosphere Tower...................without the bungee rope!
Picks this week are as follows and for a man who was all over favourites last week we want to hear some dogs bark this week:
Jaguars +9
Bears +3
Giants +5
Cowboys +3
Texans +6
The current leader is 14-1 and that's a crazy record so well done to them so far.
Please see below for an update on my season long win total bets
Season long bets
Tennessee Titans - under 5.5 wins and they are currently 1-2
Washington Redskins - under 6.5 wins and they are currently 1-2
New Orleans Saints - under 8.5 wins and they are currently 0-3
Arizona Cardinals - over 8.5 wins and they are currently 3-0
St Louis Rams - under 7.5 wins and they are currently 1-2
Whatever you bet this Sunday the very best of luck to you!
Jimmy
Panthers @ Buccaneers +3
Tampa Bay are proving a tough out since that opening day debacle at home to Tennessee. Carolina are not a free scoring offense but their lack of weapons is outweighed by a dodgy Buccs secondary. Cam Newton should get this done but on the road I could only consider backing them Straight Up.
Eagles @ Redskins +3
Washington are another team who are fighting hard but just do not appear to have the quality required to put in consistent performance. If DeSean Jackson is back for Washington then this could help them in their run game as he does pose a deep threat. Philly wobbled their way to a victory last weekend and I think they'll just about do the same here, just!
Giants @ Bills -5.5
We are getting into dangerous territory here for Buffalo now, favouriteville. It's been many a year since the Bills were so highly rated and I want to see them deliver in this spot first before I wager my hard earned money on them. The GMen are just a few plays away from being 3-0 so I will take the points with them.
Jaguars @ Colts -8
This is a big number, bouncing between 7 and 9, for the Colts to cover but Andrew Luck (if he starts) has delivered historically in these spots in divisional games. However the Colts have been favoured in each game so far this season and are 0-3 ATS. Luck is a major injury doubt and even if he does start he sounds as if he will be limited. The Jags are a live dog but can you trust them on the road, failing that there could be plenty of garbage time if Luck does click so a big chance of a back door cover.
Texans @ Falcons -6
Atlanta are 3-0 but have been behind in the 4th quarter in each of those games. The Texans should be able to stay close enough in this game and if Arian Foster is back you can't tell me they can't win this game Straight Up. Houston should hang in there and keep it close to the very end so grab those points.
Raiders @ Bears +3
The Rrrrrrrrrraiders are favourite on the road, incredible scenes! It's not surprising though given the fire sale we have seen at Chicago this week with players traded left, right and centre! Can you really trust Oakland offered up as a favourite on the road? Yes they won last week in Cleveland but they were still classed as a dog. If Cutler is back that will help greatly for Chicago but even if he isn't John Fox may just find a way to scheme a win out of this.
Chiefs @ Bengals -4
Cincinnati won a crazy game last week on the road in Baltimore and they face the Chiefs who are on the road again on a short week. Steve Smith showed last week that you can attack this Cincinatti secondary but will Alex Smith even attempt to go after them? If forced to bet this game I'd lean to the Bengals.
Browns @ Chargers -7.5
Not sure I could ever back San Diego minus eight points in any game. However, the uncertainty in Cleveland makes it hard to support them in this game. It'll have to be their defense that wins them the game but the hot San Diego weather may just drain all of the energy out of them.
Vikings @ Broncos -6.5
This will be AP versus the Broncos as Minnesota will look to pound the ground game and keep this game tight. This tactic will suit Denver as they are happy to put it in the hands of their defense as they transition away from the Manning style shoot outs of the past. I really like the under 43 points here.
Rams @ Cardinals -7
I said a couple of weeks ago I would not want to lay much more than a field goal with this Cardinals team. How wrong I've been as they've laid the smack down to both the Bears and 49ers in the past fortnight. Here they meet a much more organised and talented team than either of those two teams but still I lean towards them rather than taking the points.
Packers @ 49ers +7.5
This is a crazy line. Yes the Packers should win the game but they are playing on a short week and travelling east coast to west coast. We've seen how San Fran performed as a home dog against Minnesota and if Colin Kaerpernick can be convinced not to throw the ball to the opposition they can keep this close. I also lean to the over 47.5 points in this game. Remember the problems CK7 has caused this Dom Capers defense on the ground before?
Cowboys @ Saints -3
Tony Romo travels with his Dallas Cowboys to take on Drew Brees' New Orleans Saints team..........or he was set to when the TV schedulers selected this as America's Sunday Night Football. Brees may be back but give me the Cowboys to grind it on the ground and get the road win to send New Orleans to 0-4.
Jets @ Dolphins in London Jets -1.5
This is a must win for both games even this early in the season. Despite early season thoughts to the contrary it is now fairly obvious that the Patriots will win this division so these two teams are resigned to battling for the Play Offs. The unknowns of the London trip are a concern for all bettors in this game. If pushed into a bet give me the Jets and a spot of the overs.
Lions @ Seahawks -10
This could be ugly! The Lions look a truly dishevelled organisation whilst the Seahawks are looking to get back into their divisional race. They are two games behind Arizona and know that any further slip ups will almost certainly see them being Wild Card only contenders. Loud and proud stand the twelfth man and they should win and cover here.
My selections in the SuperContest (just for fun) are going well. Three consecutive weeks of 3-2 sees me at 9-6. If only I had done that the year I actually took part in the contest as at this stage I was 4-11 and contemplating doing that freefall jump off of the Stratosphere Tower...................without the bungee rope!
Picks this week are as follows and for a man who was all over favourites last week we want to hear some dogs bark this week:
Jaguars +9
Bears +3
Giants +5
Cowboys +3
Texans +6
The current leader is 14-1 and that's a crazy record so well done to them so far.
Please see below for an update on my season long win total bets
Season long bets
Tennessee Titans - under 5.5 wins and they are currently 1-2
Washington Redskins - under 6.5 wins and they are currently 1-2
New Orleans Saints - under 8.5 wins and they are currently 0-3
Arizona Cardinals - over 8.5 wins and they are currently 3-0
St Louis Rams - under 7.5 wins and they are currently 1-2
Whatever you bet this Sunday the very best of luck to you!
Jimmy
Thursday 1 October 2015
Goal Rush Saturday 3rd October
Goal Rush 3rd October
The leaves are turning golden brown across Europe and as the weather begins to turn I am hoping that the fortunes of the Goal Rush remain constant. A 4-1 day last Saturday has considerably helped the season long performance and interestingly home wins are hitting at a rate of 63%. Obviously twenty seven games is not a large sample size to draw any definitive conclusions from but it is a fact I feel that you should be aware of moving forward.
So far the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:
Over 1.5 goals 24-3
Over 2.5 goals 20-7
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6 and 7
BTTS 19-8 to the Yes
17 home wins, 3 draws and 7 away wins
This Saturday we have three games in the Goal Rush column so here we go....
Pescara v Cagliari, Serie B 2pm kick off UK Time
These sides have not met since the 2012-13 season when their three meetings, including one cup match, saw a total of eleven goals be scored. This season matches involving Cagliari have gone 5-0 to Yes on BTTS and 4-1 on the over 2.5 goals with the one under the total seeing two goals scored. Both of Pescara's home games this campaign have seen Yes on BTTS so you have to be confident they will find the net in this game too. At odds against this looks a good bet to continue the fine run of the Goal Rush on the over 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 v Stromsgodset, Norwegian Eliteserien 230pm kick off UK Time
It was one apiece when the sides met back in May and going back to 2010-11 season the Yes on BTTS is 6-1 in the seven meetings of the teams. The only No was the goalless draw between the sides last October and Stromsgodset are unbeaten in those seven games. Twelve Sarpsborg home games have seen a total of thirty seven goals and there have been fifty goals in Stromsgodset's thirteen away games. With both teams' games in this spot this season averaging over three goals and historical trends suggesting both teams will score I am more than happy to take the over 2.5 goals.
Norwich v Leicester, EPL 3pm kick off UK Time
Both of these teams could be, despite Leicester's bright start, be involved in a relegation battle come the end of the season. However, at this stage of the season neither team look as if they will go into their shell when they face similar type opposition. At the moment both teams' attacking threat looks far greater than their defensive strength. Back the over 2.5 goals.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend and let's hope we extend this 20-7 run!
All the best
Jimmy
The leaves are turning golden brown across Europe and as the weather begins to turn I am hoping that the fortunes of the Goal Rush remain constant. A 4-1 day last Saturday has considerably helped the season long performance and interestingly home wins are hitting at a rate of 63%. Obviously twenty seven games is not a large sample size to draw any definitive conclusions from but it is a fact I feel that you should be aware of moving forward.
So far the season long stats for the Goal Rush are as below:
Over 1.5 goals 24-3
Over 2.5 goals 20-7
Goal Distribution 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6 and 7
BTTS 19-8 to the Yes
17 home wins, 3 draws and 7 away wins
This Saturday we have three games in the Goal Rush column so here we go....
Pescara v Cagliari, Serie B 2pm kick off UK Time
These sides have not met since the 2012-13 season when their three meetings, including one cup match, saw a total of eleven goals be scored. This season matches involving Cagliari have gone 5-0 to Yes on BTTS and 4-1 on the over 2.5 goals with the one under the total seeing two goals scored. Both of Pescara's home games this campaign have seen Yes on BTTS so you have to be confident they will find the net in this game too. At odds against this looks a good bet to continue the fine run of the Goal Rush on the over 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 v Stromsgodset, Norwegian Eliteserien 230pm kick off UK Time
It was one apiece when the sides met back in May and going back to 2010-11 season the Yes on BTTS is 6-1 in the seven meetings of the teams. The only No was the goalless draw between the sides last October and Stromsgodset are unbeaten in those seven games. Twelve Sarpsborg home games have seen a total of thirty seven goals and there have been fifty goals in Stromsgodset's thirteen away games. With both teams' games in this spot this season averaging over three goals and historical trends suggesting both teams will score I am more than happy to take the over 2.5 goals.
Norwich v Leicester, EPL 3pm kick off UK Time
Both of these teams could be, despite Leicester's bright start, be involved in a relegation battle come the end of the season. However, at this stage of the season neither team look as if they will go into their shell when they face similar type opposition. At the moment both teams' attacking threat looks far greater than their defensive strength. Back the over 2.5 goals.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend and let's hope we extend this 20-7 run!
All the best
Jimmy
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