Sunday Goal Rush
Morning Team Goals
A 1-1 Saturday saw us make a small loss and sometimes I think I'd rather a 0-0 to do us than a game like the French one where the scoreline went 2-0 after just fifty two minutes. I suppose to lose in those circumstances, as we have several times of late, does at least show the games we are zoning in on are good games. It doesn't cash us the bet but it should give us confidence moving forward that we are getting closer to cracking it.
After Saturday's games we stand as below and once again I will mention the seemingly continuing strength of the over 1.5 goal bets. Many of these bets can be gained at prices of 1.25 or better yet are currently hitting at a rate of 87.9%
Over 0.5 goals 90-1
Over 1.5 goals 80-11
Over 2.5 goals 58-33
Over 3.5 goals 33-58
Yes on BTTS 54-37
Home wins 45 Draws 13 Away wins 33
Caen v Nice @ 11/10 French Ligue One, 1pm Kick Off UK Time
Following on from yesterday's unsuccessful dabble into this usually low scoring league we find another game that appeals at favourable odds against prices. BTTS has landed in all three of the teams' meetings this season and last season and the first game this season ended 3-2 to Caen in Nice. Both sides reside in the top half of the division and the sides' twenty one combined games in this spot have seen a total of sixty one goals, well above the 2.42 league average of goals per game. This is another game where I see the prices slightly out of sync with what the trends suggest so I am happy to back the overs at odds against.
Napoli v Empoli @ 8/13 Italy Serie A, 2pm Kick Off UK Time
When I was a kid growing up this league used to be stodgy and boring! Not anymore and when these sides have met recently there have been goals galore as in the three meetings of the sides over this season and last all have gone over 3.5 goals. Both teams have scored at least twice in each of the games as there have been two 2-2 draws and a 4-2 Empoli win. We know that Napoli will more than likely score as they have scored two or more goals in eight of their last nine league games but will Empoli find the back of the net? The visitors have scored in all but one of their eleven away games this season and that blank on the road was achieved way back in September. Give me overs to land here but you may have to be patient on the Exchanges and work hard to get the best price you can.
Wolfsburg v FC Cologne @ 8/11 German Bundesliga, 230pm Kick Off UK Time
The Bundesliga is a league that has been very good to all backers of goals this season and not just ourselves here in this column. Seventeen of the last nineteen meetings of the sides dating back to October 2000 have seen two or more goals. Over 2.5 goals has hit 12-7 in those nineteen games and there has been some significant price move on this line. Overs has been backed in to 8/11 from a market wide 4/5 so although it frustrates me that we didn't get on earlier at least it seems we are on the side where the money is!
Best of luck folks and don't forget to look out for the midweek Premiership Betting Podcast with myself and @petenordsted which should be out later today.
Speak soon
Jimmy
Sunday 31 January 2016
Friday 29 January 2016
Goal Rush Saturday
Morning Team Goals
A disappointing 1-2 Saturday for us last week but at least all three games saw two or more goals. This further reinforced those strong trends in the over 1.5 goals in our picks and it may be something you may want to consider moving forward. My main purpose for this column is to hit the over 2.5 goals bets and we did bounce back on Sunday with a tidy and easy cash in a 3-2 Bundesliga game!
There are quite a few games this weekend but rather than spill the beans all at once I thought I would split it down into two columns this week. A column for both Saturday and Saturday should keep you waiting in anticipation tomorrow for the next instalment. Who am I kidding there is only about seven people reading this drivel and maybe it's for the best as we don't want everyone cashing in on this do we!
This is where we stand stats wise for the season so far:
Over 0.5 goals 88-1
Over 1.5 goals 78-11
Over 2.5 goals 57-32
Over 3.5 goals 33-56
Yes on BTTS 53-36
Home wins 44 Draws 13 Away wins 32
Both games today are evening games so either make sure you get your bets on early or that you don't blow your available betting cash on the FA Cup Lottery this afternoon.
L'Orient v Reims @ 11/10 France Ligue One, 7pm Kick Off UK Time
The French Ligue has not been a league jam packed full of goals this season as games in this division average just 2.42 goals per game with over 2.5 goals hitting just 42%. That works in our favour though when we find a game where the stats point contrary to the low scoring expectancy for the league. When L'Orient play fellow bottom half placed sides there have been twenty nine goals in seven games. In the same spot Reims have played two more matches but those eleven games have seen a total of thirty three goals! When the sides met earlier this season Reims ran out 4-1 winners and the final meeting of last seasons campaign saw L'Orient win 3-1 last February in Reims. The home side have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six league outings whilst Reims have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last fourteen league games. At this juicy price of well over Even money on the over 2.5 goals we shall rely on the French to give us our first winner of the weekend.
Westerlo v Zulte-Waregem @ 7/10 Belgium Jupiler League, 7pm UK Kick Off Time
If our first game saw us go to unfamiliar places here we return to a well known and well liked League by us goal hunters, Belgium! The Jupiler League is one of the higher scoring European Leagues as it averages 2.82 goals per game and over 2.5 goals strike at a rate of 57%. Historically there has been an avalanche of goals when these sides meet as each of the last four games between the two sides have gone over 3.5 goals. Meetings in Westerlo have gone 5-3 to over 2.5 goals since December 2005 but all eight of those meetings have seen at least two goals. Westerlo have kept just one clean sheet at home all season and have just two shut outs to their name in their twenty three league games this campaign. Zulte have just one clean sheet on the road this season and given the fact they have conceded at least two goals in twelve of their last sixteen games it's hard to see them pitching a shut out here.
Well there we go chaps and chapessess' so let's look to hit 2-0 today and I will be back tomorrow with plenty more goal action.
All the best
Jimmy
A disappointing 1-2 Saturday for us last week but at least all three games saw two or more goals. This further reinforced those strong trends in the over 1.5 goals in our picks and it may be something you may want to consider moving forward. My main purpose for this column is to hit the over 2.5 goals bets and we did bounce back on Sunday with a tidy and easy cash in a 3-2 Bundesliga game!
There are quite a few games this weekend but rather than spill the beans all at once I thought I would split it down into two columns this week. A column for both Saturday and Saturday should keep you waiting in anticipation tomorrow for the next instalment. Who am I kidding there is only about seven people reading this drivel and maybe it's for the best as we don't want everyone cashing in on this do we!
This is where we stand stats wise for the season so far:
Over 0.5 goals 88-1
Over 1.5 goals 78-11
Over 2.5 goals 57-32
Over 3.5 goals 33-56
Yes on BTTS 53-36
Home wins 44 Draws 13 Away wins 32
Both games today are evening games so either make sure you get your bets on early or that you don't blow your available betting cash on the FA Cup Lottery this afternoon.
L'Orient v Reims @ 11/10 France Ligue One, 7pm Kick Off UK Time
The French Ligue has not been a league jam packed full of goals this season as games in this division average just 2.42 goals per game with over 2.5 goals hitting just 42%. That works in our favour though when we find a game where the stats point contrary to the low scoring expectancy for the league. When L'Orient play fellow bottom half placed sides there have been twenty nine goals in seven games. In the same spot Reims have played two more matches but those eleven games have seen a total of thirty three goals! When the sides met earlier this season Reims ran out 4-1 winners and the final meeting of last seasons campaign saw L'Orient win 3-1 last February in Reims. The home side have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six league outings whilst Reims have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last fourteen league games. At this juicy price of well over Even money on the over 2.5 goals we shall rely on the French to give us our first winner of the weekend.
Westerlo v Zulte-Waregem @ 7/10 Belgium Jupiler League, 7pm UK Kick Off Time
If our first game saw us go to unfamiliar places here we return to a well known and well liked League by us goal hunters, Belgium! The Jupiler League is one of the higher scoring European Leagues as it averages 2.82 goals per game and over 2.5 goals strike at a rate of 57%. Historically there has been an avalanche of goals when these sides meet as each of the last four games between the two sides have gone over 3.5 goals. Meetings in Westerlo have gone 5-3 to over 2.5 goals since December 2005 but all eight of those meetings have seen at least two goals. Westerlo have kept just one clean sheet at home all season and have just two shut outs to their name in their twenty three league games this campaign. Zulte have just one clean sheet on the road this season and given the fact they have conceded at least two goals in twelve of their last sixteen games it's hard to see them pitching a shut out here.
Well there we go chaps and chapessess' so let's look to hit 2-0 today and I will be back tomorrow with plenty more goal action.
All the best
Jimmy
Sunday 24 January 2016
Championship Sunday
Championship Sunday
The best Sunday of the year is here. I have my pizza and beer ready in the fridge and the day off from work on Monday!
Patriots @ Broncos +3
Here we go then for what is surely the final time. Yes it's Denver hosting New England but we all know that this game will be won by the performance of the two quarterbacks. It may be a simplistic view but in truth the story is can the great Peyton Manning lead this defensive minded Denver team to victory. Brady is. 11-5 in the meetings of the these two future Hall of Fame QB's but it's been 2-2 in the Play Offs. Denver have the stronger defense and home advantage but will it be enough? You'd expect the Pats to run a similar quick hitting offensive game plan that they used last week against Kansas City. Tom Brady hardly had the ball in his hand before he rifled it out for small short yardage gains. The task for Denver is somehow to find a way to stop that and get pressure on Brady but it will be difficult. Denver seem committed to getting Manning under centre as opposed to any shotgun/pistol packages and they will want to run the ball as much as possible. All the money is for New England and the bookmakers have a huge liability on them going into the game. It is the 'square side' but I like the Patriots to take the game and I sense their under rated defense will put a lid on the offensive success for Manning.
Denver 13 New England 23
Cardinals @ Panthers -3
This should be a barnstorming game between two of the lesser storied NFL franchises. This line opened as high as Carolina -6 in some places before it was quickly brought back to -3.5 and it now sits at minus 3. Both head coaches came under criticism last week for their cautious approach to the Divisional Weekend games. Despite Carolina racing to a huge early lead Ron Rivera ensured his team went into their shell in the second half and Cam Newton made sure his coach knew he wasn't happy after the game! Arizona had some nervous moments in their game against Green Bay as Carson Palmer had quite frankly an awful game and if he performs like that this week then it should be a routine victory for the home team. These are two of my favourite teams to watch this season and I sense given the issues of last week either will want to lose because they were accused of being overly cautious. Cam Newton should be able to be very dynamic against this Cardinals offense and Palmer will take his shots against a weakened Panthers secondary. I lean to the Panthers on the handicap line but I LOVE the over 47.5 points.
Carolina 31 Arizona 24
Well there we have it, the season is nearly over bar one game (please don't say what about the Pro Bowl?). It's been a great year and I've really enjoyed writing each week and hope it's at least been of some use for you.
All the best
Jimmy
The best Sunday of the year is here. I have my pizza and beer ready in the fridge and the day off from work on Monday!
Patriots @ Broncos +3
Here we go then for what is surely the final time. Yes it's Denver hosting New England but we all know that this game will be won by the performance of the two quarterbacks. It may be a simplistic view but in truth the story is can the great Peyton Manning lead this defensive minded Denver team to victory. Brady is. 11-5 in the meetings of the these two future Hall of Fame QB's but it's been 2-2 in the Play Offs. Denver have the stronger defense and home advantage but will it be enough? You'd expect the Pats to run a similar quick hitting offensive game plan that they used last week against Kansas City. Tom Brady hardly had the ball in his hand before he rifled it out for small short yardage gains. The task for Denver is somehow to find a way to stop that and get pressure on Brady but it will be difficult. Denver seem committed to getting Manning under centre as opposed to any shotgun/pistol packages and they will want to run the ball as much as possible. All the money is for New England and the bookmakers have a huge liability on them going into the game. It is the 'square side' but I like the Patriots to take the game and I sense their under rated defense will put a lid on the offensive success for Manning.
Denver 13 New England 23
Cardinals @ Panthers -3
This should be a barnstorming game between two of the lesser storied NFL franchises. This line opened as high as Carolina -6 in some places before it was quickly brought back to -3.5 and it now sits at minus 3. Both head coaches came under criticism last week for their cautious approach to the Divisional Weekend games. Despite Carolina racing to a huge early lead Ron Rivera ensured his team went into their shell in the second half and Cam Newton made sure his coach knew he wasn't happy after the game! Arizona had some nervous moments in their game against Green Bay as Carson Palmer had quite frankly an awful game and if he performs like that this week then it should be a routine victory for the home team. These are two of my favourite teams to watch this season and I sense given the issues of last week either will want to lose because they were accused of being overly cautious. Cam Newton should be able to be very dynamic against this Cardinals offense and Palmer will take his shots against a weakened Panthers secondary. I lean to the Panthers on the handicap line but I LOVE the over 47.5 points.
Carolina 31 Arizona 24
Well there we have it, the season is nearly over bar one game (please don't say what about the Pro Bowl?). It's been a great year and I've really enjoyed writing each week and hope it's at least been of some use for you.
All the best
Jimmy
Friday 22 January 2016
Goal Rush Weekend
Here we go Team Goals and we have four games this weekend. Hopefully we will carry on where we left off last Saturday when we clean swept but you know me, I'd be ecstatic with a 3-1 week. So far we stand as below:
Over 0.5 goals 84-1
Over 1.5 goals 74-11
Over 2.5 goals 55-30
Over 3.5 goals 32-53
Yes on BTTS 48-36
Home wins 43 Draws 11 Away wins 31
This week sees us return to the scene of the robbery last weekend as we go back to Division One in England for three of the games. This Division is averaging a healthy 2.81 goals per game and I think we have some decent opportunities there. On Sunday we head over the water to Germany to Ze Bundesliga where we are hopeful our selection maintains the League average of 2.82 goals per game.
Chesterfield v Millwall @ 10/11 English League One, 3pm Saturday
Goal crazy Chesterfield host promotion chasing Millwall and if is game replicates the Spireites recent matches then we should see a healthy smattering of goals. Their last three games have seen no fewer than seventeen goals whilst Millwall's last four games have all gone over 2.5 goals. In fact the Lions have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine away games and over the season their thirteen away days have seen a total of forty two goals fly in. With Chesterfield high on confidence in front of goal but not having kept a clean sheet since Halloween I really like this game to get us off to a winning start.
Crewe v Wigan @ 17/20 English League One, 3pm Saturday
Wigan are comfortably odds on for this trip to Crewe and given their 10-4-1 record against the bottom half teams this season that price can be justified. However, most of that record has been assembled on home soil as they are just 3-2-1 away in this spot and have conceded seven goals in those six games. Crewe are poor against the top half, as you'd expect from a side who sit bottom of the table, but they have managed to find the back of the net in five of six games at home in this spot. With Wigan conceding five straight games I can almost call a 2-1 or 3-1 away win for Wigan here.
Sheffield United v Swindon Town @ 8/11 English League One, 3pm Saturday
There have been plenty of goals when these sides have met in recent seasons. The last two games have seen 2-0 wins for United, including a two goal margin of victory last season at Bramall Lane. The home side are 4-1-3 when playing middle third placed teams and have scored in every single game. Swindon are 2-1-6 when facing off against the top third placed teams and have conceded in every single one of those matches. So we've established that the Blades will score at least once, can we rely on Swindon to find the back of the net? Well they've scored fifteen goals in their twelve away games and have scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Give me overs!
Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg @ 8/11 German Bundesliga, 230pm Saturday
They always save the best till last! The last sixteen meetings of these two sides have seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals has gone 12-4 in that stretch. Frankfurt are 1-2-6 against top half sides but they have at least scored twelve goals in those nine games. However to lose six games when you score a few yourself means you have to concede a lot of goals, twenty one in fact! Wolfsburg are a tidy 4-4-1 against the bottom half with twenty four total goals being scored, just over an average of 2.5 goals per game. Given this fixtures historical trends for goals I'm happy to finish the weekend off with this game as a very attractive betting option.
Well there we have it, let's hope for a 3-1 record!
All the best
Jimmy
Over 0.5 goals 84-1
Over 1.5 goals 74-11
Over 2.5 goals 55-30
Over 3.5 goals 32-53
Yes on BTTS 48-36
Home wins 43 Draws 11 Away wins 31
This week sees us return to the scene of the robbery last weekend as we go back to Division One in England for three of the games. This Division is averaging a healthy 2.81 goals per game and I think we have some decent opportunities there. On Sunday we head over the water to Germany to Ze Bundesliga where we are hopeful our selection maintains the League average of 2.82 goals per game.
Chesterfield v Millwall @ 10/11 English League One, 3pm Saturday
Goal crazy Chesterfield host promotion chasing Millwall and if is game replicates the Spireites recent matches then we should see a healthy smattering of goals. Their last three games have seen no fewer than seventeen goals whilst Millwall's last four games have all gone over 2.5 goals. In fact the Lions have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine away games and over the season their thirteen away days have seen a total of forty two goals fly in. With Chesterfield high on confidence in front of goal but not having kept a clean sheet since Halloween I really like this game to get us off to a winning start.
Crewe v Wigan @ 17/20 English League One, 3pm Saturday
Wigan are comfortably odds on for this trip to Crewe and given their 10-4-1 record against the bottom half teams this season that price can be justified. However, most of that record has been assembled on home soil as they are just 3-2-1 away in this spot and have conceded seven goals in those six games. Crewe are poor against the top half, as you'd expect from a side who sit bottom of the table, but they have managed to find the back of the net in five of six games at home in this spot. With Wigan conceding five straight games I can almost call a 2-1 or 3-1 away win for Wigan here.
Sheffield United v Swindon Town @ 8/11 English League One, 3pm Saturday
There have been plenty of goals when these sides have met in recent seasons. The last two games have seen 2-0 wins for United, including a two goal margin of victory last season at Bramall Lane. The home side are 4-1-3 when playing middle third placed teams and have scored in every single game. Swindon are 2-1-6 when facing off against the top third placed teams and have conceded in every single one of those matches. So we've established that the Blades will score at least once, can we rely on Swindon to find the back of the net? Well they've scored fifteen goals in their twelve away games and have scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Give me overs!
Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg @ 8/11 German Bundesliga, 230pm Saturday
They always save the best till last! The last sixteen meetings of these two sides have seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals has gone 12-4 in that stretch. Frankfurt are 1-2-6 against top half sides but they have at least scored twelve goals in those nine games. However to lose six games when you score a few yourself means you have to concede a lot of goals, twenty one in fact! Wolfsburg are a tidy 4-4-1 against the bottom half with twenty four total goals being scored, just over an average of 2.5 goals per game. Given this fixtures historical trends for goals I'm happy to finish the weekend off with this game as a very attractive betting option.
Well there we have it, let's hope for a 3-1 record!
All the best
Jimmy
Saturday 16 January 2016
NFL Divisional Weekend
After a pretty good betting performance last weekend where I went 3-1 it's another good looking set of games. Although I'm not feeling that confident there still looks to be some good propositions out there. Here are my brief thoughts on each of this weeks Divisional Weekend games..............
Chiefs @ Patriots -5
The Chiefs have been an absolute ATM for their backers as they extended their winning run to twelve games in the shut out off Houston last week. We've seen the Patriots be susceptible in this spot on a Saturday evening in the Divisional Round before. However, can you seriously take Andy Reid to out coach Bill Belichick in Foxboro? I thought not! Houston got their miserable ground game going against KC last week so I see the Pats, still missing a lot of their skill players on offense, finding a way to run the ball and grind the clock. Give me some of the under forty three points.
Packers @ Cardinals -7
The Packers didn't cure all of their ills in that comeback win at Washington last Sunday but it won't have done them any harm. Green Bay return here to the scene of their crime just a few weeks ago when Arizona torched them! I have to believe that last week will have encouraged the Packers so if you are giving me Aaron Rodgers plus a touchdown against anyone in the Play Offs I will take it. It won't be for big stakes as they don't match up well against the Cardinals. However, despite my love for Bruce Arians and his team something deep inside of me tells me that their season will end in heartbreak. It's a gut feeling and I'm probably wrong but it's there inside of me! I will take Green Bay plus the points.
Seahawks @ Panthers -2
This is set to be the best game of the weekend in my opinion. Both teams have built from the ground up defensively to achieve their relative successes of recent years. They have evolved though into dangerous offensive units and I have a feeling this could turn into a shoot out. You could never accuse either quarterback of not taking a deep shot downfield so there could be many more points than this line of forty four. The Seahawks left a lot out on the field last Sunday and I reckon they will come out firing here. Seattle straight up and the overs for me as I see Cam and Carolina being dumped out of the Play Offs in front of their own fans.
Steelers @ Broncos -7.5
Denver host a very banged up Pittsburgh side here and the real question is just how fit will Big Ben be? If he can throw it more than ten yards then the Steelers have a chance of at least covering the spread. The loss of Antonio Brown is big for Pittsburgh and you know this well rested Broncos defense would cause problems to even a fully fit Steelers offense. Noodle Arm Manning should have a bit extra velocity in that right arm of his this week so I will take the home team but only straight up. I'm staying well clear of the points line as you know full well that one hit on Big Ben and it could be Goodnight Vienna!
All the best and enjoy the games!
Jimmy
Chiefs @ Patriots -5
The Chiefs have been an absolute ATM for their backers as they extended their winning run to twelve games in the shut out off Houston last week. We've seen the Patriots be susceptible in this spot on a Saturday evening in the Divisional Round before. However, can you seriously take Andy Reid to out coach Bill Belichick in Foxboro? I thought not! Houston got their miserable ground game going against KC last week so I see the Pats, still missing a lot of their skill players on offense, finding a way to run the ball and grind the clock. Give me some of the under forty three points.
Packers @ Cardinals -7
The Packers didn't cure all of their ills in that comeback win at Washington last Sunday but it won't have done them any harm. Green Bay return here to the scene of their crime just a few weeks ago when Arizona torched them! I have to believe that last week will have encouraged the Packers so if you are giving me Aaron Rodgers plus a touchdown against anyone in the Play Offs I will take it. It won't be for big stakes as they don't match up well against the Cardinals. However, despite my love for Bruce Arians and his team something deep inside of me tells me that their season will end in heartbreak. It's a gut feeling and I'm probably wrong but it's there inside of me! I will take Green Bay plus the points.
Seahawks @ Panthers -2
This is set to be the best game of the weekend in my opinion. Both teams have built from the ground up defensively to achieve their relative successes of recent years. They have evolved though into dangerous offensive units and I have a feeling this could turn into a shoot out. You could never accuse either quarterback of not taking a deep shot downfield so there could be many more points than this line of forty four. The Seahawks left a lot out on the field last Sunday and I reckon they will come out firing here. Seattle straight up and the overs for me as I see Cam and Carolina being dumped out of the Play Offs in front of their own fans.
Steelers @ Broncos -7.5
Denver host a very banged up Pittsburgh side here and the real question is just how fit will Big Ben be? If he can throw it more than ten yards then the Steelers have a chance of at least covering the spread. The loss of Antonio Brown is big for Pittsburgh and you know this well rested Broncos defense would cause problems to even a fully fit Steelers offense. Noodle Arm Manning should have a bit extra velocity in that right arm of his this week so I will take the home team but only straight up. I'm staying well clear of the points line as you know full well that one hit on Big Ben and it could be Goodnight Vienna!
All the best and enjoy the games!
Jimmy
Friday 15 January 2016
Goal Rush Weekend
Hello Team Goals
We are back on it this weekend after a short break last weekend due to a lack of eligible games. It's been a bit of a similar story this week if I am completely truthful. The winter breaks across Europe are starting to come to an end though so I'm hopeful we will get plenty of games to pick from moving forward.
I've still managed to find three games tomorrow, all within the English Divisions, to keep you occupied and cheering for goalmouth action. So far this season we have done very well but there is always room for improvement, results are as below:
Over 0.5 goals 81-1
Over 1.5 goals 71-11
Over 2.5 goals 52-30
Over 3.5 goals 31-51
Yes on BTTS 47-35
Home wins 42 Draws 11 Away wins 29
Off we go then and let's look to go at least 2-1.
Rotherham v QPR @ 4/6 English Championship, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
A Championship relegation battle kicks us off this Saturday as the Millers host a QPR side who have at times this season been a low scoring outfit. However, their last six games have all seen Yes on BTTS cash and with Rotherham home games seeing forty one goals in thirteen games this season I sense goals are on the cards here. The first meeting of the sides ended 4-2 to QPR at Loftus Road back in August. Three clean sheets in a row at home for Rotherham may cause concern to some of you but those were achieved against Brighton (on a dreadful run), Bolton (a complete shambles) and Hull (notoriously tight and low scoring games). I'm happy to take the overs here and do your best to get our elusive 1.7 or 8/11 ish.
Shrewsbury v Barnsley @ 10/11 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
Our relegation special weekend turns its attention to Division One now as we head to Shrewsbury as they host their Yorkshire counterparts from Barnsley. I'm very surprised to see this game priced as close to Even money as it is but that's not our problem is it! The teams languish in 20th and 18th place respectively and when they face fellow bottom half placed sides the twenty five combined games have seen eighty two goals. Barnsley are 9-2 to over 2.5 goals when they hit the road and Shrewsbury have kept just three clean sheets in twenty five League games this season. Love the overs folks.
Wigan v Chesterfield @ 19/20 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
The home side Wigan are chasing promotion whilst Chesterfield are looking to pull themselves away from the relegation battle they are involved in. Wigan won the first meeting of the teams this season 3-2 in Derbyshire back in September and will be very confident of gaining their eighth home win of the season. Chesterfield are a bit and miss 6-0-7 away from this season and they have conceded in ten straight games but they have also scored ten goals in their last two games. With Wigan scoring three goals in three of their last four League One matches I feel this price on the over 2.5 goals is great value.
Best of luck folks and I will be back with my NFL thoughts over the weekend!
Jimmy
We are back on it this weekend after a short break last weekend due to a lack of eligible games. It's been a bit of a similar story this week if I am completely truthful. The winter breaks across Europe are starting to come to an end though so I'm hopeful we will get plenty of games to pick from moving forward.
I've still managed to find three games tomorrow, all within the English Divisions, to keep you occupied and cheering for goalmouth action. So far this season we have done very well but there is always room for improvement, results are as below:
Over 0.5 goals 81-1
Over 1.5 goals 71-11
Over 2.5 goals 52-30
Over 3.5 goals 31-51
Yes on BTTS 47-35
Home wins 42 Draws 11 Away wins 29
Off we go then and let's look to go at least 2-1.
Rotherham v QPR @ 4/6 English Championship, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
A Championship relegation battle kicks us off this Saturday as the Millers host a QPR side who have at times this season been a low scoring outfit. However, their last six games have all seen Yes on BTTS cash and with Rotherham home games seeing forty one goals in thirteen games this season I sense goals are on the cards here. The first meeting of the sides ended 4-2 to QPR at Loftus Road back in August. Three clean sheets in a row at home for Rotherham may cause concern to some of you but those were achieved against Brighton (on a dreadful run), Bolton (a complete shambles) and Hull (notoriously tight and low scoring games). I'm happy to take the overs here and do your best to get our elusive 1.7 or 8/11 ish.
Shrewsbury v Barnsley @ 10/11 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
Our relegation special weekend turns its attention to Division One now as we head to Shrewsbury as they host their Yorkshire counterparts from Barnsley. I'm very surprised to see this game priced as close to Even money as it is but that's not our problem is it! The teams languish in 20th and 18th place respectively and when they face fellow bottom half placed sides the twenty five combined games have seen eighty two goals. Barnsley are 9-2 to over 2.5 goals when they hit the road and Shrewsbury have kept just three clean sheets in twenty five League games this season. Love the overs folks.
Wigan v Chesterfield @ 19/20 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
The home side Wigan are chasing promotion whilst Chesterfield are looking to pull themselves away from the relegation battle they are involved in. Wigan won the first meeting of the teams this season 3-2 in Derbyshire back in September and will be very confident of gaining their eighth home win of the season. Chesterfield are a bit and miss 6-0-7 away from this season and they have conceded in ten straight games but they have also scored ten goals in their last two games. With Wigan scoring three goals in three of their last four League One matches I feel this price on the over 2.5 goals is great value.
Best of luck folks and I will be back with my NFL thoughts over the weekend!
Jimmy
Friday 8 January 2016
NFL Wild Card Weekend
Let's begin this weeks column with a review of my season long bets, starting with the Divisional Title bets.
Buffalo Bills @ 13/2 finished third in their division with an 8-8 record. Had opportunities for a better record but in truth never close to challenging.
Baltimore Ravens & 13/8 also finished third as their season started like a train wreck and only got marginally better as their 5-11 season drew to its close.
Houston Texans @ 9/2 finally gave us a nice winner as they outfought Indianapolis for the crown to finish 9-7.
Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1 is the first of my five second place picks. You get nothing for coming second though and the Chiefs started off 1-5. To even have a chance of winning the title on the last day of the season was an achievement as they rattled off ten straight win. .
Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 saw me disappointed by the complete derailment of the Chip Kelly project as he paid the price for a 7-9 second placed season.
Green Bay Packers @ 4/9 paid the price for the Jordy Nelson injury as their offense stuttered and spluttered to a 10-6 season. Their failure on the final day to beat the Vikings for the crown makes me think their Super Bowl chances are minimal.
Atlanta Falcons @ 9/4 started off like a steam train before they ran out of gas. From a 5-0 start they crashed and burned to finish 8-8 but with Carolina beating everyone in sight they were never really in with a shot.
Seattle Seahawks @ 4/11 showed huge resilience to overcome a string of key injuries to battle through to the Play Offs. With Arizona playing at such an elite level that despite them finishing second they were never close.
Moving onto the Season Long under/over Win Total bets and thankfully we had much better success. We went 4-1 but ironically it was my 'best bet' and only odds on shot that actually lost!
Washington Redskins @ 7/10 under 6.5 wins. Washington went 9-7 and took the NFL East crown as Jay Gruden rallied his beleaguered team to raise their level of performance. Washington certainly 'Liked That' season from quarterback Kirk Cousins but in this topsy turvy Division anything can happen next season.
Tennessee Titans @ 6/5 under 5.5 wins. There were signs of improvement under rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and at one point I was worried for this bet. However, they soon proved me correct as their performers fell off a cliff but moving forward there are green shoots of recovery to be seen in Nashville.
New Orleans Saints @ 6/5 under 8.5 wins. Never has a team had such a Jekyll & Hyde season like this Saints team. Much of it correlated with the inconsistent play from Drew Brees. A 7-9 season was a cover for performances that ranged from a 13-3 to a 3-13 team. Who knows what the future holds for that franchise!
Arizona Cardinals @ 11/8 over 8.5 wins. Our easiest cash of the season as the Bruce Arians revolution in Arizona went from strength to strength. They finished the regular season with a 13-3 record but they have sights on a much greater prize.
St Louis Rams @ 11/10 under 7.5 wins. Thankfully Mr '8-8' Jeff Fisher led his team to a 7-9 campaign. With a strong defense and a fantastic rookie running back it was the lack of a credible quarterback that hampered the Rams' opportunities for an even better season. Well that and Fisher!
A poor 1-7 Division title record was slightly softened by the 4-1 season win total performance. Incredibly it was Peyton Manning leading the Broncos, off of the bench I might add, to their win over San Diego that stopped a possible 2-6 record delivering stellar returns. Such are the fine margins!
Moving onto the Wild Card rounds, one of my favourite weekends of sport, and we have four stand alone games. I'm not sure how much betting opportunities there are but we will have a go at finding some value.
Chiefs @ Texans +3
The Chiefs are on an eleven game winning streak so surely you must be crazy to go against them in this spot. Maybe you are but I'm not afraid of being carted off to an asylum! Those eleven wins were obtained against just two sides with winning records and even one of those, against Landry Jones and Pittsburgh, was against a back up quarterback. The Texans will look to get this done on the back of their defense and with JJ Watt and co playing at an elite level I see the Chiefs struggling immensely here. Houston know this Saturday afternoon spot well of late and the home crowd will be pumped so give me the home dog straight up in this game.
Steelers @ Bengals +3
Another road favourite this Saturday as Pittsburgh head to Ohio to take on the AJ McCarron led Bengals. The point line has been set at forty six points here and that instantly attracted me to the under. Cincinnati have seemingly hit the ground running lately in games but then once their scripted plays for McCarron run out their offense stutters. The home team will need to run the ball and stay committed to the run as if this turns into a shoot out there is only one winner. I lean to the unders here but I can't trust this Steelers side laying points on the road.
Seahawks @ Vikings +5
Five weeks ago I cashed my biggest winning be of the season as Seattle demolished the Vikings in Minneapolis. That day I was lucky enough to get Seattle minus just two points as the Hawks demolished Mike Zimmer's team 38-7. This is different though and I'm not prepared to lay five points for any team on the road in a one off play off game. I am happy to add Seattle to any parlay bets but I'm stating clear of the handicap line. Minnesota may struggle to score points and even move the ball consistently so the under 40 points would be my lean in that market.
Packers @ Washington Pk
This is the day that the fans in Washington have been waiting for since RG3 went down in that play off game against Seattle a few years ago. The place will be bouncing, loud and inspiring for the home team. However, this league is all about match ups and Green Bay match up so well against the home team. It's been a great season for Washington but I'm happy to trust Rodgers here to get the job done. It'll probably be the only play off game they do win but take them here on the Pk line.
Best of luck this weekend folks and hopefully I will be back next week with a #GoalRush column.
Speak soon
Jimmy
Buffalo Bills @ 13/2 finished third in their division with an 8-8 record. Had opportunities for a better record but in truth never close to challenging.
Baltimore Ravens & 13/8 also finished third as their season started like a train wreck and only got marginally better as their 5-11 season drew to its close.
Houston Texans @ 9/2 finally gave us a nice winner as they outfought Indianapolis for the crown to finish 9-7.
Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1 is the first of my five second place picks. You get nothing for coming second though and the Chiefs started off 1-5. To even have a chance of winning the title on the last day of the season was an achievement as they rattled off ten straight win. .
Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 saw me disappointed by the complete derailment of the Chip Kelly project as he paid the price for a 7-9 second placed season.
Green Bay Packers @ 4/9 paid the price for the Jordy Nelson injury as their offense stuttered and spluttered to a 10-6 season. Their failure on the final day to beat the Vikings for the crown makes me think their Super Bowl chances are minimal.
Atlanta Falcons @ 9/4 started off like a steam train before they ran out of gas. From a 5-0 start they crashed and burned to finish 8-8 but with Carolina beating everyone in sight they were never really in with a shot.
Seattle Seahawks @ 4/11 showed huge resilience to overcome a string of key injuries to battle through to the Play Offs. With Arizona playing at such an elite level that despite them finishing second they were never close.
Moving onto the Season Long under/over Win Total bets and thankfully we had much better success. We went 4-1 but ironically it was my 'best bet' and only odds on shot that actually lost!
Washington Redskins @ 7/10 under 6.5 wins. Washington went 9-7 and took the NFL East crown as Jay Gruden rallied his beleaguered team to raise their level of performance. Washington certainly 'Liked That' season from quarterback Kirk Cousins but in this topsy turvy Division anything can happen next season.
Tennessee Titans @ 6/5 under 5.5 wins. There were signs of improvement under rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and at one point I was worried for this bet. However, they soon proved me correct as their performers fell off a cliff but moving forward there are green shoots of recovery to be seen in Nashville.
New Orleans Saints @ 6/5 under 8.5 wins. Never has a team had such a Jekyll & Hyde season like this Saints team. Much of it correlated with the inconsistent play from Drew Brees. A 7-9 season was a cover for performances that ranged from a 13-3 to a 3-13 team. Who knows what the future holds for that franchise!
Arizona Cardinals @ 11/8 over 8.5 wins. Our easiest cash of the season as the Bruce Arians revolution in Arizona went from strength to strength. They finished the regular season with a 13-3 record but they have sights on a much greater prize.
St Louis Rams @ 11/10 under 7.5 wins. Thankfully Mr '8-8' Jeff Fisher led his team to a 7-9 campaign. With a strong defense and a fantastic rookie running back it was the lack of a credible quarterback that hampered the Rams' opportunities for an even better season. Well that and Fisher!
A poor 1-7 Division title record was slightly softened by the 4-1 season win total performance. Incredibly it was Peyton Manning leading the Broncos, off of the bench I might add, to their win over San Diego that stopped a possible 2-6 record delivering stellar returns. Such are the fine margins!
Moving onto the Wild Card rounds, one of my favourite weekends of sport, and we have four stand alone games. I'm not sure how much betting opportunities there are but we will have a go at finding some value.
Chiefs @ Texans +3
The Chiefs are on an eleven game winning streak so surely you must be crazy to go against them in this spot. Maybe you are but I'm not afraid of being carted off to an asylum! Those eleven wins were obtained against just two sides with winning records and even one of those, against Landry Jones and Pittsburgh, was against a back up quarterback. The Texans will look to get this done on the back of their defense and with JJ Watt and co playing at an elite level I see the Chiefs struggling immensely here. Houston know this Saturday afternoon spot well of late and the home crowd will be pumped so give me the home dog straight up in this game.
Steelers @ Bengals +3
Another road favourite this Saturday as Pittsburgh head to Ohio to take on the AJ McCarron led Bengals. The point line has been set at forty six points here and that instantly attracted me to the under. Cincinnati have seemingly hit the ground running lately in games but then once their scripted plays for McCarron run out their offense stutters. The home team will need to run the ball and stay committed to the run as if this turns into a shoot out there is only one winner. I lean to the unders here but I can't trust this Steelers side laying points on the road.
Seahawks @ Vikings +5
Five weeks ago I cashed my biggest winning be of the season as Seattle demolished the Vikings in Minneapolis. That day I was lucky enough to get Seattle minus just two points as the Hawks demolished Mike Zimmer's team 38-7. This is different though and I'm not prepared to lay five points for any team on the road in a one off play off game. I am happy to add Seattle to any parlay bets but I'm stating clear of the handicap line. Minnesota may struggle to score points and even move the ball consistently so the under 40 points would be my lean in that market.
Packers @ Washington Pk
This is the day that the fans in Washington have been waiting for since RG3 went down in that play off game against Seattle a few years ago. The place will be bouncing, loud and inspiring for the home team. However, this league is all about match ups and Green Bay match up so well against the home team. It's been a great season for Washington but I'm happy to trust Rodgers here to get the job done. It'll probably be the only play off game they do win but take them here on the Pk line.
Best of luck this weekend folks and hopefully I will be back next week with a #GoalRush column.
Speak soon
Jimmy
Sunday 3 January 2016
NFL Week 17
The shambles that is the final week of the NFL season is upon us.
Lines all over the place, questionable motivation for teams and players who usually amaze us with their skills are stood on the sidelines with ear pieces in.
It is a good time of the season for betting in some respects as school is out for summer! In meaningless games it's often worth just backing points and cheering on every point scored as we know in all sport it takes more effort to play defense than play offense. The books know this but only possibly add on a couple of points or so which is as we all know less than a field goal.
Be careful with your wagers this week. Do you research, try and find the motivation angles for some teams and be lucky!
Jets @ Bills +2.5
The Jets need this game and Rex wants nothing more to shove this to Gang Green. They always say his Ra-Ra speeches get his players up for games but is this really the case? It's going to be cold, wet and probably snow. I lean to the Jets here as let's see some FitzMagic in upstate New York.
Buccaneers @ Panthers -11
Laying eleven points is a big ask for Carolina here as even if they do win comfortably they may leave that back door wide open. Yes they want to win and wrap up the number one seed and home field in front of their home fans but now the unbeaten run is over more importantly they want to stay healthy. A pass for me.
Patriots @ Dolphins +10
I love the unders here! Miami are offensively challenged and New England just want to win, take the number one seed and get the hell out of dodge. I expect to see New England run the ball at every opportunity so give me some of the under forty seven points.
Ravens @ Bengals -9.5
Divisional game. End of season. Nothing really for either team to play for but the Bengals would like a first round bye. You seriously want to bet this game? Thought not.
Saints @ Falcons -6
Will this be Drew Brees' last game as a Saint? More than likely it will be and in the Georgia Dome maybe we will have one final shoot out between these two old foes. Even with the point line set at fifty three it's overs or nothing for me.
Jaguars @ Texans -6
One and a half million different things need to happen to stop the Texans winning the division and handing it to Indianapolis but I imagine they will start their starters. Houston are not an elite team so I can't lay six points with them against this potentially high flying Jags offense. If news filters through from Indy early that results are going Houston's way then that Texans bench may soon be filled with some familiar faces.
Steelers @ Browns +10.5
Who will be under centre for Cleveland? Pittsburgh need this game like blood and hope that the Jets lose so Pittsburgh progress. I did warn a few weeks ago about the Steelers' apparent hubris. The weather is set for snow flurries so will that impede the high flying Pittsburgh passing game? I'd love to see Cleveland ruin the Steelers' play off hopes. Is it heart over head ruling me here though? Cleveland or pass at this big number.
Raiders @ Chiefs -7
It seems an eternity ago that Oakland beat San Diego on Christmas Eve and I've eaten my own body weight in chocolate since then. It's likely with nothing to play for that some of the Raiders' more chunkier units have followed my example. At any level of a touchdown or below I'm happy to take the Chiefs here. They are the better team and if they win and the Broncos lose then they will be crowned divisional champs.
Titans @ Colts -6
Good lord who knows what's happening in Indianapolis. I wouldn't touch this game with my worst enemies' money. FYI if Tennessee lose they get the number one draft pick but I'm sure that would have more effect on the game if it was to be played in Tennessee with the home fans actively cheering a loss!
Washington @ Cowboys -4
You have to believe that Washington will rest many of their starters a week before they host a play off game. It would be the sensible thing to do but does Jay Gruden strike you as a man who makes sensible decisions?
Lions @ Bears PK
Detroit smoked the 49ers last Sunday but I have a feeling that was their last hoorah this season. Outside of the cosy confines of the Silverdome they travel to a freezing cold Soldier Field where the home side want to end the season strongly.
Eagles @ Giants -3.5
Will Philadelphia get any lift from sacking Chip Kelly. Will New York play hard in what is more than likely going to be Tom Coughlin's final game. Who knows and in truth outside of the City of Angels and of the Big Apple who really cares. Over fifty one points is the only bet I'd ever consider making in this game.
Vikings @ Packers -3
Another game I'm not sure I want to take part in. At face value it's a no brainer back of the tried and tested Green Bay Packers. However, they haven't looked capable of pulling away from any team and if this is turned into a defensive battle there will only be one winner and they will be playing in purple.
Chargers @ Broncos -9
I lean to the under forty one points as I expect Denver to put this game in the hands of their defense. It could be worse for the Chargers as favourable winter weather means its only twenty degrees colder in Denver than when they took off from California. This could be San Diego's last game being San Diego (if that makes sense). Denver need to win to clinch and they should just about get it done but I ain't laying nine points with them.
Rams @ 49ers +3
This could end up 10-3 as two offensively challenged teams square off. Todd Gurley, the best offensive talent for either team, is unlikely to play for the Rams and San Fran play stoutly against the run. Jeff Fisher needs this game to go 8-8 and kill my under 7.5 season win total bet on the Rams. Of course St Louis will win this game outright! I prefer the under 37.5 points though from a betting perspective as although I say these games usually go over this is Jeff Fisher. His life mission is to go 8-8. If you can't tell I hate Jeff Fisher. Maybe you should ignore my views on the Rams!
Seahawks @ Cardinals -6
Seattle need to sort out their offensive line and they need to sort it out quickly else their post season will be cut vert very short. Arizona need a win here and a Carolina loss to secure the number one seed and home field throughout the play offs. Arizona will have a week off no matter what so I expect them to continue to play to maintain their rhythm whereas you may see the Hawks be sensible with their guys. Arizona minus the points for me and probably an under forty seven bet will cash nicely given both teams wish to get out unscathed.
I feared the worst last week and I was right as I had my worst week of the season going 1-4 to take my season long record to 45-35. At this stage of the season it's so hard to pick five games each week and I bet the current leader is pleased he is four and a half points clear. Rounding Again is 57-20-3 a truly incredible return and only the worst possible luck will see them from not taking home the first prize. I salute you!
#SuperContest Week 17 Picks
Bears -1
Cardinals -6.5
Chiefs -6.5
Giants -3
Jets -3
Packers -3
My least confident five SuperContest picks of the year but five a week is the rule!
Best of luck everybody with all your bets and I hope my little round ups have at least given a little bit of assistance over the course of the regular season.
I shall be back next week with play off thoughts, a round up of my eight Divisional Selections and my five under/over season long win total bets.
All the best
Jimmy
Lines all over the place, questionable motivation for teams and players who usually amaze us with their skills are stood on the sidelines with ear pieces in.
It is a good time of the season for betting in some respects as school is out for summer! In meaningless games it's often worth just backing points and cheering on every point scored as we know in all sport it takes more effort to play defense than play offense. The books know this but only possibly add on a couple of points or so which is as we all know less than a field goal.
Be careful with your wagers this week. Do you research, try and find the motivation angles for some teams and be lucky!
Jets @ Bills +2.5
The Jets need this game and Rex wants nothing more to shove this to Gang Green. They always say his Ra-Ra speeches get his players up for games but is this really the case? It's going to be cold, wet and probably snow. I lean to the Jets here as let's see some FitzMagic in upstate New York.
Buccaneers @ Panthers -11
Laying eleven points is a big ask for Carolina here as even if they do win comfortably they may leave that back door wide open. Yes they want to win and wrap up the number one seed and home field in front of their home fans but now the unbeaten run is over more importantly they want to stay healthy. A pass for me.
Patriots @ Dolphins +10
I love the unders here! Miami are offensively challenged and New England just want to win, take the number one seed and get the hell out of dodge. I expect to see New England run the ball at every opportunity so give me some of the under forty seven points.
Ravens @ Bengals -9.5
Divisional game. End of season. Nothing really for either team to play for but the Bengals would like a first round bye. You seriously want to bet this game? Thought not.
Saints @ Falcons -6
Will this be Drew Brees' last game as a Saint? More than likely it will be and in the Georgia Dome maybe we will have one final shoot out between these two old foes. Even with the point line set at fifty three it's overs or nothing for me.
Jaguars @ Texans -6
One and a half million different things need to happen to stop the Texans winning the division and handing it to Indianapolis but I imagine they will start their starters. Houston are not an elite team so I can't lay six points with them against this potentially high flying Jags offense. If news filters through from Indy early that results are going Houston's way then that Texans bench may soon be filled with some familiar faces.
Steelers @ Browns +10.5
Who will be under centre for Cleveland? Pittsburgh need this game like blood and hope that the Jets lose so Pittsburgh progress. I did warn a few weeks ago about the Steelers' apparent hubris. The weather is set for snow flurries so will that impede the high flying Pittsburgh passing game? I'd love to see Cleveland ruin the Steelers' play off hopes. Is it heart over head ruling me here though? Cleveland or pass at this big number.
Raiders @ Chiefs -7
It seems an eternity ago that Oakland beat San Diego on Christmas Eve and I've eaten my own body weight in chocolate since then. It's likely with nothing to play for that some of the Raiders' more chunkier units have followed my example. At any level of a touchdown or below I'm happy to take the Chiefs here. They are the better team and if they win and the Broncos lose then they will be crowned divisional champs.
Titans @ Colts -6
Good lord who knows what's happening in Indianapolis. I wouldn't touch this game with my worst enemies' money. FYI if Tennessee lose they get the number one draft pick but I'm sure that would have more effect on the game if it was to be played in Tennessee with the home fans actively cheering a loss!
Washington @ Cowboys -4
You have to believe that Washington will rest many of their starters a week before they host a play off game. It would be the sensible thing to do but does Jay Gruden strike you as a man who makes sensible decisions?
Lions @ Bears PK
Detroit smoked the 49ers last Sunday but I have a feeling that was their last hoorah this season. Outside of the cosy confines of the Silverdome they travel to a freezing cold Soldier Field where the home side want to end the season strongly.
Eagles @ Giants -3.5
Will Philadelphia get any lift from sacking Chip Kelly. Will New York play hard in what is more than likely going to be Tom Coughlin's final game. Who knows and in truth outside of the City of Angels and of the Big Apple who really cares. Over fifty one points is the only bet I'd ever consider making in this game.
Vikings @ Packers -3
Another game I'm not sure I want to take part in. At face value it's a no brainer back of the tried and tested Green Bay Packers. However, they haven't looked capable of pulling away from any team and if this is turned into a defensive battle there will only be one winner and they will be playing in purple.
Chargers @ Broncos -9
I lean to the under forty one points as I expect Denver to put this game in the hands of their defense. It could be worse for the Chargers as favourable winter weather means its only twenty degrees colder in Denver than when they took off from California. This could be San Diego's last game being San Diego (if that makes sense). Denver need to win to clinch and they should just about get it done but I ain't laying nine points with them.
Rams @ 49ers +3
This could end up 10-3 as two offensively challenged teams square off. Todd Gurley, the best offensive talent for either team, is unlikely to play for the Rams and San Fran play stoutly against the run. Jeff Fisher needs this game to go 8-8 and kill my under 7.5 season win total bet on the Rams. Of course St Louis will win this game outright! I prefer the under 37.5 points though from a betting perspective as although I say these games usually go over this is Jeff Fisher. His life mission is to go 8-8. If you can't tell I hate Jeff Fisher. Maybe you should ignore my views on the Rams!
Seahawks @ Cardinals -6
Seattle need to sort out their offensive line and they need to sort it out quickly else their post season will be cut vert very short. Arizona need a win here and a Carolina loss to secure the number one seed and home field throughout the play offs. Arizona will have a week off no matter what so I expect them to continue to play to maintain their rhythm whereas you may see the Hawks be sensible with their guys. Arizona minus the points for me and probably an under forty seven bet will cash nicely given both teams wish to get out unscathed.
I feared the worst last week and I was right as I had my worst week of the season going 1-4 to take my season long record to 45-35. At this stage of the season it's so hard to pick five games each week and I bet the current leader is pleased he is four and a half points clear. Rounding Again is 57-20-3 a truly incredible return and only the worst possible luck will see them from not taking home the first prize. I salute you!
#SuperContest Week 17 Picks
Bears -1
Cardinals -6.5
Chiefs -6.5
Giants -3
Jets -3
Packers -3
My least confident five SuperContest picks of the year but five a week is the rule!
Best of luck everybody with all your bets and I hope my little round ups have at least given a little bit of assistance over the course of the regular season.
I shall be back next week with play off thoughts, a round up of my eight Divisional Selections and my five under/over season long win total bets.
All the best
Jimmy
Friday 1 January 2016
The Goal Rush is back!
Well hello there 'Team Goals'
We are back for 2016 and hopefully these defences have feasted on more turkey and Cadburys Roses than me. Actually that's not possible but you know what I mean!
So far this season our record stands as per below:
Over 0.5 goals 79-1
Over 1.5 goals 69-11
Over 2.5 goals 51-29
Over 3.5 goals 30-50
Yes on BTTS 47-33
Home wins 41 Draws 11 Away wins 28
The much reduced European programme that we see at this time of the year obviously limits the games for us to participate in. However, there were several games that met the criteria and we appear to have found two solid selections at good prices for this Saturday.
Crewe Alexandra v Coventry City @ 10/11 English Division One, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
These sides have met seven times in League One action since September 2012 and the last six of those have seen goals a plenty. Each of those six meetings have seen a Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. Coventry won 3-2 when the sides met back in August and Crewe have recently gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS in their last six league matches. The bookmakers have promotion chasing Coventry quite rightly priced as odds on favourites for this game but Crewe have scored in all but two of their twelve home matches so far this campaign. At a price of approaching Even money I see the over 2.5 goals as a very strong play here to get our 2016 Goal Rush off to a winning start.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Ross County @ 21/20 Scottish Premiership, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
The best available price for the over 2.5 goals opened at Even money before drifting out to 21/20 and I can't explain why. Inverness won 2-1 when the teams met for the first time this season in Ross-shire back in October. That result continued a pattern of scoring when the teams collide as Yes on BTTS has gone 7-1 in all meetings of the sides since New Years Day 2014. In fact the very nature of the structure of Scottish Football encourages teams to meet on many more occasions than most European leagues. Thus these trends should be taken more seriously as a 7-1 record such as this is built up in two years rather than say four years within the English structure. Inverness are on an 8-0 Yes on BTTS run in the league, with over 2.5 goals going 7-1 and over 3.5 goals hitting 5-3. Given those recent trends and the trends historically when these sides meet I am perplexed as to how this price is drifting higher than its opening price. Give me some of the over 2.5 goals.
Well there we go for this week and next week hopefully there may be some more games on offer as the rest of Europe begin to wake from their Christmas slumber.
All the best and I shall be back Sunday morning for a much reduced NFL round up for what will be as always a strange final week of regular season gridiron action.
Take care and let's make the bookmakers pay in 2016
Jimmy
We are back for 2016 and hopefully these defences have feasted on more turkey and Cadburys Roses than me. Actually that's not possible but you know what I mean!
So far this season our record stands as per below:
Over 0.5 goals 79-1
Over 1.5 goals 69-11
Over 2.5 goals 51-29
Over 3.5 goals 30-50
Yes on BTTS 47-33
Home wins 41 Draws 11 Away wins 28
The much reduced European programme that we see at this time of the year obviously limits the games for us to participate in. However, there were several games that met the criteria and we appear to have found two solid selections at good prices for this Saturday.
Crewe Alexandra v Coventry City @ 10/11 English Division One, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
These sides have met seven times in League One action since September 2012 and the last six of those have seen goals a plenty. Each of those six meetings have seen a Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. Coventry won 3-2 when the sides met back in August and Crewe have recently gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS in their last six league matches. The bookmakers have promotion chasing Coventry quite rightly priced as odds on favourites for this game but Crewe have scored in all but two of their twelve home matches so far this campaign. At a price of approaching Even money I see the over 2.5 goals as a very strong play here to get our 2016 Goal Rush off to a winning start.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Ross County @ 21/20 Scottish Premiership, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
The best available price for the over 2.5 goals opened at Even money before drifting out to 21/20 and I can't explain why. Inverness won 2-1 when the teams met for the first time this season in Ross-shire back in October. That result continued a pattern of scoring when the teams collide as Yes on BTTS has gone 7-1 in all meetings of the sides since New Years Day 2014. In fact the very nature of the structure of Scottish Football encourages teams to meet on many more occasions than most European leagues. Thus these trends should be taken more seriously as a 7-1 record such as this is built up in two years rather than say four years within the English structure. Inverness are on an 8-0 Yes on BTTS run in the league, with over 2.5 goals going 7-1 and over 3.5 goals hitting 5-3. Given those recent trends and the trends historically when these sides meet I am perplexed as to how this price is drifting higher than its opening price. Give me some of the over 2.5 goals.
Well there we go for this week and next week hopefully there may be some more games on offer as the rest of Europe begin to wake from their Christmas slumber.
All the best and I shall be back Sunday morning for a much reduced NFL round up for what will be as always a strange final week of regular season gridiron action.
Take care and let's make the bookmakers pay in 2016
Jimmy
New Years Day Halftime Report
Happy New Year Folks
Half Time Report (fuelled by Nescafé Azera)
Well folks we are now exactly half way through what can only be described as the most entertaining and unpredictable Premiership season in living memory. So what have we learned, what are the trends and where the heck can we make money in the next few weeks and months?
Now please feel free to ignore anything I say below as let's not forget before the season I was heard to say:
"I think Chelsea will probably grind it out and look the best option to take the title."
" Newcastle at 7/2 look a decent proposition to finish in the top half of the table."
"Leicester at 3/10 to finish in the bottom half looks a staggeringly good price. 30% interest here we come."
Those statements have all obviously been proved incorrect and I'm sure people will remind me about them for a long while on that kind community that is Twitter.
The key though to constant evolution and progression with your betting is not to stick to those original thoughts like a stubborn mule. Sometimes you will be correct to stick to your guns but only if you constantly reassess and re-evaluate your betting thoughts. I could write a column as long as my eighty five odd thousand word book at this half time stage but oh my lord that would bore you. Instead I have picked out one statistic or trend for each team so far this season that strikes a chord with me at this half way stage. Whether the pattern will continue moving forward is unknown but certainly they all have some relevance. Many of these should even come into our thought process for this weekends fixtures.
So in current league table order let's have a look.
Arsenal - Despite being top of the league they are only 6-1-3 against bottom half sides and have scored just fifteen goals in those ten matches.
Leicester City - The surprise packages have won eleven games so far this campaign but eight of those victories have been by just a single goal.
Manchester City - Have a huge top/bottom half split as City are 9-1-0 versus the bottom half and only 2-2-5 when playing fellow top half opponents.
Tottenham Hotspur - Best defensive record in the league this season and on just one occasion have they conceded more than once away from home.
Crystal Palace - Incredibly Palace have only conceded more than once in a game on just two occasions in the opening nineteen matches.
Manchester United - For a club who is apparently in turmoil their ten clean sheets in nineteen games is not a bad defensive return.
Liverpool - Always well backed punters need to be aware that they have scored more than once in just four of nineteen matches. Not good for a team who are regularly favoured by a full goal or even more.
West Ham United - The Hammers are 1-5-0 in their last six games and are unbeaten in the last seven at Upton Park.
Watford - When taking on opposition from the top seven Watford really struggle as they are only 1-0-6 in that spot and 7-5-0 against all other sides in the league.
Stoke City - After an indifferent start to the season Stoke have now kept eight clean sheets in their last twelve matches.
Everton - The Toffees are horrendous against the top half of the table as they are 0-5-5 in that spot.
Southampton - A record of 1-3-6 against the top half suggests their best work is done against the strugglers and that victory was only earned on Boxing Day v Arsenal.
West Bromwich Albion - Just nineteen goals in the nine matches the Baggies have played against fellow bottom half foes with an impressive five clean sheets in those games.
Chelsea - Failed to win two games in a row this season and the current three match unbeaten run is their best run of the current campaign.
Norwich City - The Canaries have kept just two clean sheets in nineteen games and one of those was against Aston Villa so does that even count?
Bournemouth - Overall this season under 2.5 goals is 10-9 in their games. However that is split into a 6-3 home and 4-6 away record.
Swansea City - Just eight total goals in Swansea's last six games and in those games they have failed to score more than once in a match.
Newcastle - The Magpies have failed to score in nine of their nineteen Premiership games this season and in their last three games they scored just one goal. Those games were against Aston Villa, Everton and West Brom whose defences have combined to concede a total of eight two goals this season.
Sunderland - Seven times this season Sunderland have conceded three or more goals in a single game. At the other end the Mackems have only scored nineteen goals themselves.
Aston Villa - After winning on opening day they have gone eighteen games without a win. They do however score more goals against the top half than against the bottom half, nine as opposed to just six against their relegation competition.
Well I hope that is of at least some use to you moving forward and I shall be back later with the first Goal Rush column of 2016.
All the best
Jimmy
Half Time Report (fuelled by Nescafé Azera)
Well folks we are now exactly half way through what can only be described as the most entertaining and unpredictable Premiership season in living memory. So what have we learned, what are the trends and where the heck can we make money in the next few weeks and months?
Now please feel free to ignore anything I say below as let's not forget before the season I was heard to say:
"I think Chelsea will probably grind it out and look the best option to take the title."
" Newcastle at 7/2 look a decent proposition to finish in the top half of the table."
"Leicester at 3/10 to finish in the bottom half looks a staggeringly good price. 30% interest here we come."
Those statements have all obviously been proved incorrect and I'm sure people will remind me about them for a long while on that kind community that is Twitter.
The key though to constant evolution and progression with your betting is not to stick to those original thoughts like a stubborn mule. Sometimes you will be correct to stick to your guns but only if you constantly reassess and re-evaluate your betting thoughts. I could write a column as long as my eighty five odd thousand word book at this half time stage but oh my lord that would bore you. Instead I have picked out one statistic or trend for each team so far this season that strikes a chord with me at this half way stage. Whether the pattern will continue moving forward is unknown but certainly they all have some relevance. Many of these should even come into our thought process for this weekends fixtures.
So in current league table order let's have a look.
Arsenal - Despite being top of the league they are only 6-1-3 against bottom half sides and have scored just fifteen goals in those ten matches.
Leicester City - The surprise packages have won eleven games so far this campaign but eight of those victories have been by just a single goal.
Manchester City - Have a huge top/bottom half split as City are 9-1-0 versus the bottom half and only 2-2-5 when playing fellow top half opponents.
Tottenham Hotspur - Best defensive record in the league this season and on just one occasion have they conceded more than once away from home.
Crystal Palace - Incredibly Palace have only conceded more than once in a game on just two occasions in the opening nineteen matches.
Manchester United - For a club who is apparently in turmoil their ten clean sheets in nineteen games is not a bad defensive return.
Liverpool - Always well backed punters need to be aware that they have scored more than once in just four of nineteen matches. Not good for a team who are regularly favoured by a full goal or even more.
West Ham United - The Hammers are 1-5-0 in their last six games and are unbeaten in the last seven at Upton Park.
Watford - When taking on opposition from the top seven Watford really struggle as they are only 1-0-6 in that spot and 7-5-0 against all other sides in the league.
Stoke City - After an indifferent start to the season Stoke have now kept eight clean sheets in their last twelve matches.
Everton - The Toffees are horrendous against the top half of the table as they are 0-5-5 in that spot.
Southampton - A record of 1-3-6 against the top half suggests their best work is done against the strugglers and that victory was only earned on Boxing Day v Arsenal.
West Bromwich Albion - Just nineteen goals in the nine matches the Baggies have played against fellow bottom half foes with an impressive five clean sheets in those games.
Chelsea - Failed to win two games in a row this season and the current three match unbeaten run is their best run of the current campaign.
Norwich City - The Canaries have kept just two clean sheets in nineteen games and one of those was against Aston Villa so does that even count?
Bournemouth - Overall this season under 2.5 goals is 10-9 in their games. However that is split into a 6-3 home and 4-6 away record.
Swansea City - Just eight total goals in Swansea's last six games and in those games they have failed to score more than once in a match.
Newcastle - The Magpies have failed to score in nine of their nineteen Premiership games this season and in their last three games they scored just one goal. Those games were against Aston Villa, Everton and West Brom whose defences have combined to concede a total of eight two goals this season.
Sunderland - Seven times this season Sunderland have conceded three or more goals in a single game. At the other end the Mackems have only scored nineteen goals themselves.
Aston Villa - After winning on opening day they have gone eighteen games without a win. They do however score more goals against the top half than against the bottom half, nine as opposed to just six against their relegation competition.
Well I hope that is of at least some use to you moving forward and I shall be back later with the first Goal Rush column of 2016.
All the best
Jimmy
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