NFL Sunday Week 12

NFL Week 12

 

Buccaneers @ Colts -3  The Buccs are on the rise but you have to imagine at some point Jameis Winston has a shocker and throws away a game for the Buccs. That game will more than likely not be this one as the Colts do not have a fearsome defense. Both teams are still well in hit play off hunt and this game is too close to call for me so I will pass. 

 

Vikings @ Falcons -1.5 If Minnesota had handled business last Sunday I would think the Vikings would have been favoured for this trip to Georgia. The line opened Atlanta -2.5 but money has poured in on the Vikings before a little buyback has drive. The number back to minus one and a half. Atlanta are falling apart at the seams and with star running back Devonta Freeman suffering concussion last week the situation doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon. I will take Minnesota on the road here in the nice cosy confines of the Georgia Dome to get the job done. 

 

Dolphins @ Jets -3.5  Talking of teams falling apart at the seams and two teams in the same boat meet at MetLife Stadium. The loser of this game will in my opinion have their play off hopes vanquished and the last five weeks of the season for them will be played out in meaningless fashion. Another game too close to call but if I had to I would take the Fins plus that extra half point over the field goal on the handicap line. 

 

Raiders @ Titans +1  Tennessee are showing some signs of life on both sides of the ball and despite being 2-8 there is a surprising amount of positivity around the franchise. The flight board at Oakland Airport will state a destination of Nashville but it might as well be headed up Last Chance Saloon for the Raiders. At 4-6 the men from the Black Hole need this win to get back into the AFC Play Off race after three straight losses. Despite being sat on a Titans under season win total I will tentatively take the home dog in this spot to all but end the Raiders season. 

 

Chargers @ Jaguars -5  Don’t look now but the Jags are trying to muscle their way into the play off race and here they favoured by over a field goal which has been unheard of in recent years. If I had a pound for every time I saw Philip Rivers frantically clapping his hands to get a snap out before the play clock ran out I would be a rich man! San Diego are a shambles and I will take Jacksonville here purely on the amount of playmakers they have for Blake Bortles to target. Rivers is a great quarterback but his hands are tied but can you trust the Jags as a favourite of over a field goal? Jags or pass for me. 

 

Saints @ Texans -3  Usual ‘Saints on the road’ rules apply for me in this one. Brees is no longer the Brees of old and on home soil that is enough but not here against a JJ Watt led Texans defense. That Houston defensive unit has conceded just twenty nine points in their last three games and they will get after Brees in a loud play off type atmosphere. Brian Hoyer should be back under centre for the home team God only knows what DeAndre Hopkins will do to the horrific Saints defense. Houston by over a touchdown. 

 

Giants @ Washington +2.5 These old foes know each other so well and Washington know a win here will see them move into joint possession for the lead for the NFC East. Plenty of money this week for the GMen but we know that Washington are a different side at home than they are on the road. I will take New York but only straight up as this will be a closely fought encounter.

 

Rams @ Bengals -9 This point line looked very generous to the Rams when it opened at just seven points. Bettors soon twigged on that the three consecutive losses has seen the Rams' season fall apart and their quarterback situation is a shambles. Is Mr 8-8 going to go 4-12? Bengals by hefty double digits for me.

 

Bills @ Chiefs -5 Both teams come into this game with a 5-5 record and the opening point line of KC minus three and a half points suggested Vegas saw the Chiefs as the slightly better team. I see it the other way as I sense Buffalo have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Injuries to the Chiefs skill positions sees them line up players I have never even heard of! The line was driven up to KC minus six before a little buyback and I love the Bills in this spot. Shop around and you may get that six maybe even six and a half near kick off. 

 

Cardinals @ 49ers +10 Any team who are 3-7 are not very good and that is the record that San Francisco come into this game with. However, the Niners have fought really hard on home soil throughout the season and ten points is a lot of points to give any NFL team, especially in a divisional game. Last Sunday they showed great spirit in Seattle to keep coming back and trading punches with the Seahawks. With six games to go the Cardinals have a three game lead at the top of the NFC West. They may just want to get through games here on in and manage themselves for the play offs. Avoid on the handicap line. 

 

Steelers @ Seahawks -3.5  The much vaunted Seattle defense has given up 0 (Clausen), 10 (Stafford), 27 (Newton), 39 (Palmer) and 13 (Gabbert) points at home this season. Do you spot the pattern there? Good quarterbacks are putting up points against the Hawks in their own back yard and Ben Roethlisberger certainly has some weapons at his disposal. The match line opened Seattle -5.5 but has been bet down as some big bets have been placed on the Steelers. I prefer to take the over 45.5 points as this could be surprisingly high scoring. 

 

Patriots @ Broncos +3  This could be a very hard fought slugfest in the Mile High City on Sunday Night Football. Bettors frantically drove the line down from the opening point of -5.5 to just -3 on the Pats and further injuries to New England skill position players makes this a tough one to call. I will grab the points here as with Gronk double and triple teamed and a hefty pass rush coming after Tom Terrific they could come up short in the Mile High City.  

 

Ravens @ Browns -3  This is not the most attractive Monday Night Football we have ever seen and was made less entertaining by the justifiable demotion of Johnny Manziel. The line opened as a Pk but with Josh McCown stepping in under centre for Cleveland belief has grown in the betting market that the Browns will win. I see McCown a serviceable NFL quarterback and with Joe Flacco out for the season along with Forsett and Smith I don't see how Baltimore move the ball. 

 

 

Season Long Bets

Arizona Cardinals – Bet over 8 ½ wins and currently 8-2  Almost weighed in

New Orleans Saints – Bet under 8 ½ wins and currently 4-6  Starting to count the pennies

St Louis Rams – Bet under 7 ½ wins and currently 4-6  Still a little Gurley related nervousness

Tennessee Titans  - Bet under 5 ½ wins and currently 2-8  Only a lot of Music City Miracles will rob us!

Washington Redskins – Bet under 6 ½ wins and currently 4-6  In that division anything is possible

 

SuperContest

Last week I went 4-1 despite crossing off of my list Houston Texans +2 and swapping them for the Philadelphia Eagles -5 ½ in a move that stopped me from going 5-0. My record is 34-21 for the season and I would be tied for 11th in the contest if I had actually entered it. I am in the process of writing about this in more detail as two years ago when I was taking part in the Contest I was 23-30-2. That is a substantial improvement and I am hoping that I can put down in words some of the key lessons that I have realised over the past two years which has helped improve my gridiron gambling.

Bengals -8.5

Bills +6.5

Broncos +3

Browns -2.5

Texans -3

 

Best of luck everybody and enjoy the games!

Jimmy

 

 

Weekend Goal Rush

Goal Rush Weekend

Hello all and welcome to the next instalment of the Goal Rush. Yes I know I am a day early but I am out of town tomorrow and Saturday so I was up burning the midnight oil early in the week so I can deliver you the same level of work as usual. After our profitable Tuesday night we currently stand as per below:

 

Over 0.5 goals 65-0

Over 1.5 goals 57-8

Over 2.5 goals 41-24

Over 3.5 goals 23-42

Yes on BTTS 41-24

Home wins 32 Draws 10 Away wins 23

 

This Saturday we have three games so we will definitely either be in a positive or a negative come 945pm Saturday night.

 

Scunthorpe United v Peterborough United @ 7/10 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off time

I received some tongue in cheek comments in midweek about the Peterborough/Barnsley being an obvious bet to land an over 2.5 goal bet. In many ways it was a very obvious bet as the goal trends pointed strongly to the game seeing many goals but it is all to do with price. If the game had been priced up at 1.5 to go over the goal line then we would not have dived in but until they are priced correctly we will continue to bet. Other leagues such as Belgium and Holland where we see similarly strong trends such as these regularly see prices of 4/9 or below on overs bets hitting. I think the English bookmakers are slow to react to English teams outside of the Premiership who see strong goal trends. Scunthorpe have a stronger tendency to go under the 2.5 goal mark as they are just 11-8 to the overs but Peterborough are a strong 14-5 to overs and a staggering 19-0 to the over 1.5 goal line. This suggests that there will be almost certainly least two goals so I really cannot understand why this is priced at a higher level than the midweek game for the Posh. Surely the trend in their games has just got stronger? Overs!

 

Wolfsberger v Admira Wacker @ Evens Austrian Bundesliga, 530pm UK Kick Off time

We head back to Austria this weekend as after the easy land of a bet last Saturday there are further opportunities in the land of classical music and skiing.  Every team bar one in the ten team Bundesliga average over 2.5 goals in their games and the historical meetings of the teams are littered with goals. Ironically it is the home side who are seeing their games average just 2.06 goals per game but that is why we get this juicy price of Even Money on the over 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 6-3 in the last nine meetings of the sides and Admira Wacker perform well in this spot this season. Wolfsberger are bottom of the table and Wacker have scored seventeen goals in nine games against bottom half teams. Despite their low scoring exploits over the full season Wolfsberger have scored in four straight home games and twice in each of their last two on home soil. Wacker have drawn three games in a row by a scoreline of 1-1 and that run cannot continue forever and will see this as an excellent chance to move back towards the top three. At Even Money the over 2.5 goals offers some good risk/reward.

 

FC Twente v Willem II @ 8/13 Dutch Eredivisie, 745pm UK Kick Off time

European football followers know the defences of Dutch teams have been incredibly poor this season. Matches in the Eredivisie are averaging 3.04 goals per game with both of these teams seeing an average of over 2.5 goals in their games. When these two teams square off against each other goals literally explode at all angles. Since September 2007 the sides have met twelve times and only once has there not been at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 7-5. More importantly the last four head to heads have seen Yes on BTTS land and a total of nineteen goals. Over 2.5 goals is 6-1 in both teams’ last seven games and I see no reason for this strong trend to change here. I am sure if you shop around you will be able to get a price somewhere towards 1.7 as I think this is a great opportunity. Usually I would maybe swerve away from a relatively low price but in a league where goals flow openly I think this is one of the best bets in that league this weekend. Given the fact other games with similar trends are priced as low as 1.35 then we will be made to work hard to get the best price available but the hard work should be worth it.  

 

Here’s to another profitable Saturday as hopefully we go at least 2-1. Please remember folks that yes we have had a good run in the past week or so but runs will always come to an end at some point. Stake responsibly.

 

All the best

Jimmy

 

NFL Thanksgiving Day Games

Thanksgiving Day Games

What are you going to be thankful for this Thursday? Whilst hundreds of millions of Americans spend Thursday pausing for thought and being thankful for what they have, us English are just left hanging around until we finish work before we can begin to join the celebrations. I think I am most thankful for Cecil Martin carving a big turkey and diving head, well usually leg, first into his prey as Sky Sports will once again deliver us three live games. Stuff the turkey though as we are just interested in the three games the NFL will serve up on our plate this Thursday night.

When teams turn around so quickly from Sunday to Thursday I am not overly keen on betting individual games with my hard earned cash and look to the player markets to find value. Don’t get me wrong these are still well researched bets but as I am relying on an individual to perform rather than a full roster of men I reduce my stakes accordingly. Here is a Thanksgiving Day trio of player bets to keep you warm this cold winter night.

 

Eagles @ Lions +1 and 46 points  Winter may be just around the corner but the temperature appears to be getting hotter and hotter in Philadelphia and it may soon be coming to a boil. The Eagles will be thankful for this road trip to get out of town after their humiliating defeat last Sunday on home soil at the hands of Tampa Bay. The NFC East is arguably the worst division in football and somehow Chip Kelly is manoeuvring his team down the table week by week and by the end of today could be bottom of the pile.  There is a common misconception doing the rounds that the Eagles are always dominated by the opposition in the time of possession and that is simply not the case. Only twice this season have the Eagles had the ball for less than twenty four minutes of the game. I know that is not ideal but it still equates to them having the ball at least 40% of the time in most of their games. Here they take on a Detroit side who have a defense who appear to have a new lease of life since recent coaching changes but cannot run the ball for love nor money. This could be a pretty ugly game and however the game flow pans out I see Matt Stafford having to air the ball out quite a bit for this shaky looking Lions offense to move the ball on a regular basis. His passing yards line is set at 264 ½ with Paddy Power and I like the over. If you include the game where he was benched against Arizona (strange I know but with the same offensive weapons his back up came in and threw for 191 yards) Detroit are 4-1 to the over on this line at home this season. The one game they failed to top that 264 ½ was at home to the Vikings where Stafford fell 8 yards short. In that game though the Lions only had the ball for 23:33 of the game and as discussed already Detroit are more than likely to win the time of possession battle. Back Matt Stafford over 264 ½ passing yards @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

 

Panthers @ Cowboys -1 and 45 ½ points   A 10-0 team travel to a 3-7 team and the undefeated team are receiving a point. That is not your usual standard Las Vegas linemaking there for you but it does show you the value of Tony Romo to this Dallas offense. Romo is 10-0 this season in terms of his value to the Cowboys as Dallas are 3-0 with Romo in the lineup and 0-7 without Romo. Those stats tell their own story and with the face of their franchise back America’s Team will feel confident that they have a chance to win this game and go into joint possession for the lead in this putrid division. Earlier in the season the Panthers were accused of being a one dimensional team with minimal attack through the air following the season ending injury to their star wide out Kelvin Benjamin. It is true that their ground game is the real strength of the team with the powerful Jonathon Stewart, the hefty Mike Tolbert and the playmaker that is Cam Newton being a hard trio to stop. However, in recent weeks Newton has opened up the passing game and the emergence of rookie Devin Funchess has added an extra dimension to the Panthers offense. Funchess is a big bodied receiver almost tight end in physique but operating out of the wide receiver position and his improvement really gives Cam a whole new dimension in the passing game. Even with Romo back Dallas need to get back to that ground game that served them so well last season. Darren McFadden should have plenty of joy here against a Panthers run defense who in my opinion is a below average unit especially as they will not be able to load the box due to the threat of Dez Bryant. Carolina may only be giving up an average of 94 ½ yards per game on the ground but if you think they are a 10-0 team then they have been in the lead a lot this season with the opposition throwing the ball playing catch up! Suddenly those 94 ½ yards per game looks a much bigger number than it really is and I sense Dallas will be in this game all through the contest and will stay committed to their ground game. Back Darren McFadden over 70.5 rushing yards @ 20/23 with Coral.

 

Bears @ Packers -8 ½ and 44 ½ points  Lambeau Field will be a very emotional place for the late game as the Packers faithful retire the jersey of the legendary Brett Favre at half time. Time seems to be a great healer in Wisconsin as it was not that many years ago that Favre was seen as a pariah following his move to Minnesota to play for the divisional rival Vikings.  The 2015 Packers seem to be back on track after they put the Vikings firmly back in their place on Sunday afternoon and they welcome a Bears side led by Jay Cutler who is 1-11 against the Packers in a Bears uniform. Aaron Rodgers showed glimpses of a return to form but most importantly for the Cheeseheads was the hard nosed running of Eddy Lacy. After being on the Inactive (not injured) list the previous Sunday the big fella had obviously been chained to the treadmill for the week. He looked sharper and hungrier this past Sunday, well maybe not hungrier as that is what him got benched in the first place and earned him the nickname of ‘Feast Mode’. The Bears are playing very tough under John Fox and I am sure that Green Bay will look to manage Rodgers through this game on a short week. Those factors point to another heavy workload for Big Eddy on a cold holiday night in Wisconsin if not for one thing. The shadow of Favre looms large over Rodgers both in his past by hindering his progress when he entered the league and also here tonight in this game, the biggest primetime spot of the year outside of the Superbowl. I am sure Rodgers would like to light this night up and remind everyone that the new sheriff in town is better than the old one so I am sure he will play well against a team who he normally picks apart. The weather is set to be very unfavourable though to the passing game so I will side with Feast Mode to tuck in and further get back to his best. Back Eddy Lacy over 63 ½ rushing yards @ 5/6 @ Paddy Power.

 

I would suggest backing those three fancies for 90% of your intended stake this Thursday and a £9 rolled up bet would return £56.55 to you. For the other 10% how about this tasty little morsel of a bet:

Calvin Johnson @ 15/2 at Coral/Paddy Power/Sky Bet for First Touchdown Scorer

Devin Funchess @ 7/1 at Ladbrokes for first Carolina Panther Touchdown Scorer

Aaron Rodgers @ 5/1 at William Hill for Any Time Green Bay Packers Touchdown Scorer

A £1 bet returns £408 to you. Obviously it won’t as it has no hope in hell of winning but it’s a bit of fun isn’t it!

 

Until Sunday my NFL peeps!

All the best and Happy Thanksgiving to all my American readers.

Jimmy

 

Goal Rush Tuesday

Bonus Goal Rush Tuesday!

Well hello there Goal lovers and welcome to a bonus Tuesday edition of the Goal Rush as we look to build upon the 4-0 weekend. Here are the updated stats after the weekend:

 

Over 0.5 goals 64-0

Over 1.5 goals 56-8

Over 2.5 goals 40-24

Over 3.5 goals 22-42

Yes on BTTS 40-24

Home wins 31 Draws 10 Away wins 23

 

We are staying close to home this Tuesday night, well close to my home as I know we have many readers from all over the world, as we go into the English Division One for our action.

 

Peterborough v Barnsley @ 4/6 English Division One, 745pm UK Kick Off time

The name Peterborough has been synonymous with the lovers of goals all season. Their 13-5 over 2.5 goal record goes head to head with a Barnsley side who are 11-7 to the over in their League One matches this season. In fact their thirty six combined games in the league have seen one hundred and twenty goals which is an average 3.33 goals per game. Barnsley have conceded in nine straight games whilst the Posh have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine matches. When the sides met last season it was a 1-1 draw in Yorkshire and this game finished in a 2-1 home win. I am sure that we can get very close to 1.7 on the exchanges for the over 2.5 goals in this game in what I sense could turn into a shoot out at London Road.

 

That is all we have tonight and I will be back on Friday for another bumper Goal Rush column. Until then, be lucky!

Jimmy

NFL Sunday Week 11

NFL Week 11

I am not quite sure if this week can repeat last weekend for the drama and excitement that this great game can generate. From the crazy ending in Baltimore, to Dez Bryant not fighting for a ball, Peyton Manning being benched, Tom Brady getting it done again in the last two minutes or an end to end game in Seattle it certainly was a Sunday to remember!

Even though there is no way that this week will recapture that magic but I am sure there will be another good slate of games with plenty of betting opportunities.

 

Cowboys @ Dolphins +1   Tony Romo is back but it is too late to save the Cowboys’ season as at 2-7 only the good Lord above can help them. Miracles rarely happen in the NFL but I do expect an instant lift for Dallas in this game. Miami somehow won last week in Philly but I am not sold on them at all. I lean to the Nations Team but not strongly enough to side with them on what is virtually a Pk line on the road.

Packers @ Vikings -1   Minnesota are doing just enough to win games but here they are favoured against an old foe who have had their number for years. Aaron Rodgers has been seeing ghosts of late and that’s a concern as he goes up against an in form Mike Zimmer led defense. For one last week I will support the Pack but I am about to fall off of their bandwagon if they do not deliver in this spot.

Colts @ Falcons -5.5  Both of these teams come into this game off of the back of a much needed bye week. A few weeks they both looked play off bound but the prospects for both teams now look more uncertain. This is a game that I want no part of from a betting perspective but ironically I am more inclined to back Indy with the steady hand of Matt Hasselbeck on the Colts’ tiller than the erratic hand of Andrew Luck. 

Jets @ Texans +3.5   Houston had that great Monday night win in Cincinnati and now they have the smell of a divisional win in their nostrils. The Jets are wobbling and they will have been glad of the extra days rest and prep time that they gained playing a week last Thursday. The line is jumping around and was at many places pulled in light of the injury to Brian Hoyer. With Yates lining up for the Texans I can't have them here but as the line has shifted to the Jets laying over a field goal I want no part of Gang Green. Even at a point line of just forty points I am drawn towards the under. 

Raiders @ Lions +1   The Lions played the Packers tough last weekend and Oakland will be without star pass rusher Aldon Smith who was banned by the NFL for a year earlier this week. I like plenty of points here as Derek Carr has shown the ability throughout the season to air the ball out. A weakened Oakland defense is unlikely to stop the Lions regularly enough in the dome to keep this game from going under the opening total of 48.5 points. That line has shifted north to fifty points and although it makes me less likely to back the over it is still the side I lean to. 

Broncos @ Bears +1   All the keys to this game lie with the Broncos defense as they played very well last Sunday despite a heavy defeat at home to Kansas City. Despite giving up almost half a dozen short fields they still only conceded 29 points to the Chiefs. Defensive reinforcements come in for them at Chicago Field and Brock Osweiler will be under instructions to hand the ball off early and often. Although I trust the Cutler/Fox duo far more than the brains trust of Kubiack/Osweiler I am wary. Da Bears for me but I don't feel great about it as this could be a game where Cutler's head explodes and throws two picks! 

Rams @ Ravens -2.5   Mr 8-8 Jeff Fisher takes his Rams team to Baltimore to take on the shambolic Ravens team in a game I really should just be passing on from a betting perspective. Wannabe tough guy Fisher was humiliated at home by the Bears last weekend and his way of changing this situation is to bench Nick Foles and bring in Case Keenum! That decision helped move the line from a Pick to Baltimore minus two and a half. Ravens for me here. I will take the home team against Keenum. 

Buccaneers @ Eagles -6   At first glance I was gagging to take the Buccaneers here getting a full touchdown against this Eagles team and the line shifted to Philly minus six. The Buccs have won two games on the road this season and lost another by a solitary point. However, those two wins were in the passing friendly domes in Atlanta and New Orleans and the game they lost by a single point in Washington was one inspired by over one hundred and eighty rushing yards. They won't rack up those stats here and I do not trust Jameis Winston outdoors, in the wind and the cold of a Philadelphia November day. Sanchez is IMHO an upgrade to Bradford so it's the Eagles or pass for me.

Washington @ Carolina -7   The reason I am taking Carolina is for one of the reasons I outline in the game above. If Tampa Bay can run for 180+ yards against Washington then what will this tougher and more physical Panthers team do to the Skins? Carolina will physically overpower Washington here and Kirk will not have a day like last week against the Saints. Carolina by double digits and I like the over 44.5 points here as I'm not convinced Washington stop the Panthers from hitting 30. 

Bengals @ Cardinals -5   These teams had vastly differing Prime Time performances last weekend which helped shift the opening line from -3 to -5 in favour of the Cardinals. One week of action is not enough IMHO for a two point line move in terms of forgetting everything Cincinnati have shown us this season. The match market is a pass but there are many elements here that makes me take the over 48 point line. Overs!

49ers @ Seahawks -13   Seattle need this game more than ever after last Sunday nights defeat on home soil at the hands of divisional rivals Arziona. Blaine Gabbert on the road in November in the loudest stadium in the world..........Hawks!

Chiefs @ Chargers +3   Kansas City have some kind of mojo going on now and with the Broncos staring straight at a quarterback controversy the Chiefs smell blood in the water. The Chiefs have the greater need but San Diego are coming off of a bye week healthier and into a home game following a disappointing home loss. This spot doesn't sit well for KC so I am avoiding this game like the proverbial plague!

Bills @ Patriots -7  Injuries are beginning to take their toll on New England and there are only a certain number of players you can plug and play reserves in for before the pack of cards falls down. No Edelman for Brady now following quick on the heels of the loss of Lewis. Rex Ryan should be able to scheme it up enough to keep within the number. Bills or Pass for me here. 

 

My SuperContest record is 30-20 going into Week 11 and I am delighted with that record as I seem to be hitting 3-2 almost every week now. If you contrast this to my record two years ago, the year I entered the Contest, and I was 20-30 at this same stage.  This could be an anomaly on a small sample size of bets but I honestly believe this is proof of an evolution in my approach to NFL betting. Anyway less of me bigging myself up and on to this weeks selections.......

Eagles -5.5

Packers +1

Panthers -7

Ravens -2

Seahawks -12.5

 

Good luck everybody with your bets today.

Jimmy

Saturday Goal Rush

Goal Rush 21^st November

Morning Team Goals and hope you have had a great week so far. The weekend is set to be a cracker now that pesky international break is done and dusted. The past couple of weeks have been a major disappointment for us so I am looking to bounce back hugely this weekend. We are now 60-0 on the over 0.5 goals which is quite interesting and something I am definitely keeping an eye on as a £2 bet rolled over, before any exchange commission, at an average price of 1.04 would see a current bankroll of £21.04

Updated stats are as below:

Over 0.5 goals 60-0

Over 1.5 goals 52-8

Over 2.5 goals 36-24

Over 3.5 goals 19-41

Yes on BTTS 37-23

Home wins 28 Draws 10 Away wins 22

 

Here we go then for this week:

Borussia Moenchengladbach v Hannover 96 @5/6 German Bundesliga, 230pm UK Kick off time

Over 2.5 goals has gone 6-2 over the last eight meetings of the two teams and the home team should be confident of a win here. They have scored thirteen goals in their six games against bottom half opposition whilst Hannover have conceded twelve goals in their six games against top half opposition. Games in the Bundesliga are averaging 2.83 goals per games so far this season and over 2.5 goals are 9-3 in Moenchengladbach matches this season. Prior to their last game, a goalless draw, BM games were on a 9-2 winning streak and with Hannover scoring in seven straight games I will take some of the over 2.5 goals.

 

Everton v Aston Villa @ 5/6 English Premiership, 3pm UK Kick off time

Sixteen of the last seventeen EPL meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 11-6. There have been seventy four goals in Everton’s last twenty three games against bottom half opposition and I see no why reason this game should be any different. Over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 in the last eight meets at Goodison Park and the one loser in that run ended one apiece. Although Villa will look to keep things tight early in this game I sense Goodison Park is a small compact venue where it is difficult to adopt such tactics. Give me goals!

Coventry v Gillingham @ 5/6 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick off time

The top two in the Division One promotion race square off at the Ricoh Arena this Saturday as the second placed Blues host table topping Gillingham. The sides have met four times over the past two seasons with both over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS going 3-1 with the home team winning the game on each occasion. Both teams have played eight games against fellow top half opposition this season with a total of fifty goals being scored in those sixteen matches. Gillingham have scored in all but one game so far this season and with Coventry conceding eight goals in their last four games I see both teams scoring in this fixture. In fact the last four games for each side has seen no fewer than thirty four goals in those eight matches. It is far too early in the season for this game to be played in a nervous atmosphere so give me goals goals goals.

Mattersburg v Rapid Vienna @ 7/11 Austrian Bundesliga, 530pm UK Kick off time

Over 2.5 goals is on a 4-1 run when these sides meet in Bundesliga action and both teams are averaging a total of over three goals in their games so far this season. Both teams have failed to score in just one of their fifteen games so far this season with the league as a whole averaging 2.93 goals we look set for entertainment in this match. This price is a little shorter than the other games tonight but I am sure if you shop around you will get somewhere approaching 1.7 for the overs in this game.

 

So there we have it another Goal Rush Saturday is in the books and I am looking for at least a 3-1 day to get us back in the winners enclosure this Saturday night.

I will be back on Sunday with my NFL thoughts and please click below for a link to the weekly podcast. Please cheer me on as @petenordsted is kicking my behind on our Head-to-Heads so I need all your support!

http://www.petenordsted.com/premier-league-betting-podcast-week-13/

 

Best of luck folks

Jimmy

 

 

Marlborough Light or Benson & Hedges?

  

Landing a big Saturday Acca can change your life forever. You need to look no further than the betting headlines that emerged at the beginning of this week. An international break weekend with no Premiership or Championship fixtures is usually a good one for the bookmakers. Punters used to trusting their hard earned with Arsenal, Chelsea (maybe not this year so much) and Manchester City were forced to rely on Bristol Rovers, Gillingham and Luton. I thought my luck might be in as in the ‘Last Man Standing’ competition I participate in saw just over twenty competitors out of well over a hundred standing going into this tough weekend. That £500 was surely heading my way as the lower leagues are my speciality whereas these novices were not bet savvy enough to navigate their ways around the vagaries of Division One and Two. Wrong!! Favourites cashed everywhere with two and three pound punters hitting up to 14 leg accumulators left, right and centre as British bookmakers lost a reported £15 million. 

Many people say an Acca is a complete waste of time and in many ways from a completely professional opinion I would have to agree. However, the huge majority of people bet for enjoyment and an Acca is a fun way of risking a little bit of money with the dream of turning that small stake into something bigger. Perhaps landing a big Acca is part of a dream to enable that person to gain a bankroll with which to work more professionally with that would ordinarily be out of their reach.  Anyway as my mother says “Most people’s Acca’s cost less than a packet of fags.” Wise words mother.

I’m not here to tell you who to bet and what kind of teams are best to bet on but just to remind you some of the basics. I call them my ‘Famous Five’. These basics may sound simplistic but some of the principles are easily forgotten when you’re in the betting shop or building your Acca on your mobile device.

 

1. Don’t be greedy. I know that sounds silly when we are trying to make it big but any Acca of five, let alone seven or more, teams is usually doomed to fail!
2. Do your game research. Just because it’s a multi leg bet do not get lazy and just randomly chuck teams in without further thought. Undertake the same level of analysis as you would for a one off TV game or any single bet you may be thinking of making.
3. Draws can be fun! It is very rare that a draw will be priced at less than 2/1 so if you can pick out a game or two that ends all square your returns will increase dramatically.
4. Live TV games should not be forgotten for many reasons. The ability to hedge out of positions (if you suddenly become risk averse), they tend to be priced the tightest so you get the best value (often if it is the last leg you can bet the other side on a competitors offer) and the underdog is often better value in a game they are being exposed to the nation on.
5. Shop around. When you are putting multi legs into an Acca the difference in the potential winnings can be huge, running into thousands in big wins! Especially these days with access to the internet etc you are not tied to just the bookie within easy walking distance of your front door.
    

Bearing those Famous Five in mind I will this week try and land a five team Acca this weekend but first I have done a little bit of number and odds crunching for you this week. This has helped me in this project but is something that may help you shape your betting thoughts moving forward.

There have been 223 games in the Premier to Division Two this season where a team has been a best price of Even money or odds on and only 129 win of them (57%) saw a win from the odds on team. Given the fact that many of them were priced 8/11 or lower that suggests that piling your Acca full of them is not a great idea. I would maybe limit half of your Acca to odds on shots as they clearly can and do let you down on a regular basis. 

Breakdown division by division 

Premier League – P57 W35 D11 L11  61.4%

Championship – P47 W28 D14 L5  59.6%

Division One – P53 W26 D14 L13  49%

Division Two – P66 W40 D15 L11  60.6%

 

Due to my Stats Pack publication I cannot put any Division Two teams into this Acca this but if you like Division Two info you can subscribe via the below link:

http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-revamped-division-2-stats-pack.html?m=1

 

To prove that I am not just all talk I will attempt to use the above principles and stats to try and hit it big this weekend. I am sticking to five selections to ensure I am not accused of breaching principle one!

Selections

Tottenham Hotspur at home to West Ham United @ 4/7 

Swansea at home to AFC Bournemouth  20/21

Brighton away to Burnley @ 11/5

Southend at home to Blackpool @ 8/11

Crystal Palace v Sunderland Draw @ 10/3

£5 five team Acca pays around £360 with BetFred

I do not think that is too bad a return considering we have three of the five selections flying out the gate as odds on shots.

Please bet sensibly and obviously this bet is doomed to fail………hopefully it should be some fun.

Oh there is another rule I forgot to mention. Never put an early game in your Acca as it is always doomed to fail and make you want to reload before the 3pm kick offs!

I shall be back tomorrow with a bumper Goal Rush column as we look to bounce back after a couple of poor weeks.

 

All the best

Jimmy