End of season #GoalRush Round Up
We are getting to the nervy stage of the season where games become less predictable. As results for the column have been very poor of late I've taken the decision to retire the column for the season to undertake further research.
Please see below for the season long record and although the past six weeks have been rough I think it's been a solid and decent first season for the column.
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 114-5
Over 1.5 goals 98-21
Over 2.5 goals 66-53
Over 3.5 goals 39-80
Yes on BTTS 67-52
Home wins 56 Draws 23 Away wins 40
I would be lying if I said it had been a hard decision to pull the column for the final few weeks of the season as it's been a really easy one. At the beginning of the day on 31st January we stood at a fantastic 58-33 to over 2.5 goals. Fast forward six weeks and we've gone on an 8-20 run and although I would have accepted our season long record at the beginning of the campaign this recent form is something I need to address.
Each week the number of games that meets the criteria has reduced and the overall performance of those selections has also declined. This week for example only nine games across the whole of Europe hit the criteria. Two were omitted on the basis of price and the other seven potential bets went 1-6. Earlier in the season when we were successful we were often getting twenty five hit the criteria and around 50% of total possible bets hitting the over.
Has the recent run just been a retracement to the mean? I think I've discovered something but I think it's only fair that I now don't post any further selections until I've tried to iron out some of the issues that's led to our poor run.
The column will be back next season for sure as its too much fun not to research and interact with you good folks on. In what form and on what platform it'll be available on I'm not sure yet but I will keep you fully briefed!
Yours in goals
Jimmy
Sunday 20 March 2016
Thursday 17 March 2016
Weekend Goal Rush
Here we are again at the weekend people and I'm pleased to say we steadied the ship with a 2-2 showing last Saturday/Sunday. It appears that goals are doing up all over Europe as the volume of games that qualify for our consideration is dwindling week by week. However, I've still managed to piece together three games that look spot on to deliver the goods but first let's take a peek at our results so far this campaign:
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 111-5
Over 1.5 goals 96-20
Over 2.5 goals 66-50
Over 3.5 goals 39-77
Yes on BTTS 66-50
Home wins 56 Draws 22 Away wins 38
Everton v Arsenal @8/11 English Premier League, 1245pm UK Kick Off Saturday
Arsenal have their season hopes hanging by a thread as they make the trip to Goodison Park this Saturday for the EPL's lunchtime kick off. The home team have struggled on their own patch this season but there has been plenty of goalmouth action with over 2.5 goals going 10-5. On the road Arsenal have also been full of goals as they are 9-6 to the over and this will be a fast and open game and an early goal should ignite this encounter. I love the overs on the goal line though as Arsenal can't defend at the moment whilst the home team look the ideal fodder for Arsenal's slick passing moves.
Roma v Inter @ 19/20 Italian Serie A, 745pm UK Kick Off Saturday
These sides have met eighteen times since April 2007 with the over 2.5 goals going 11-7 in that run. Both sides have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks as both of their last six games in league action have gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Roma are 9-5 to over 2.5 goals at the home whilst Inter's fourteen away games have seen thirty four total goals. Give me the overs to hit here in this new Serie A that sees plenty of goals.
Sion v Basel @ 4/5 Swiss Super League, 3pm Sunday
The Swiss League is averaging 3.08 goals per game so far this season so it's a surprise to see this game priced at such an attractive price. Basel have gone a total 18-5 to the over 2.5 goals this season and on the road they are a strong 8-3 away from home to the over. There have been at least two goals in twenty three of Basel's twenty four league matches this season. The risk/reward looks stacked very much to the reward side here so I'm happy to take overs in this game to top the weekend off.
All the best and speak soon
Jimmy
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 111-5
Over 1.5 goals 96-20
Over 2.5 goals 66-50
Over 3.5 goals 39-77
Yes on BTTS 66-50
Home wins 56 Draws 22 Away wins 38
Everton v Arsenal @8/11 English Premier League, 1245pm UK Kick Off Saturday
Arsenal have their season hopes hanging by a thread as they make the trip to Goodison Park this Saturday for the EPL's lunchtime kick off. The home team have struggled on their own patch this season but there has been plenty of goalmouth action with over 2.5 goals going 10-5. On the road Arsenal have also been full of goals as they are 9-6 to the over and this will be a fast and open game and an early goal should ignite this encounter. I love the overs on the goal line though as Arsenal can't defend at the moment whilst the home team look the ideal fodder for Arsenal's slick passing moves.
Roma v Inter @ 19/20 Italian Serie A, 745pm UK Kick Off Saturday
These sides have met eighteen times since April 2007 with the over 2.5 goals going 11-7 in that run. Both sides have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks as both of their last six games in league action have gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Roma are 9-5 to over 2.5 goals at the home whilst Inter's fourteen away games have seen thirty four total goals. Give me the overs to hit here in this new Serie A that sees plenty of goals.
Sion v Basel @ 4/5 Swiss Super League, 3pm Sunday
The Swiss League is averaging 3.08 goals per game so far this season so it's a surprise to see this game priced at such an attractive price. Basel have gone a total 18-5 to the over 2.5 goals this season and on the road they are a strong 8-3 away from home to the over. There have been at least two goals in twenty three of Basel's twenty four league matches this season. The risk/reward looks stacked very much to the reward side here so I'm happy to take overs in this game to top the weekend off.
All the best and speak soon
Jimmy
Thursday 10 March 2016
Weekend Goal Rush
Last weekend saw a horrific 0-4 weekend for us but we should try and keep this all in perspective. If you'd have offered me this record of 64-48 at the beginning of the season then I would probably have taken it. Sadly though recent weeks have really put a dent into both profits and confidence. I have not been doing anything differently in terms of research or analysis and I think, he says fingers crossed, last week was just a blip. I have taken some solace from the fact that we had nineteen qualifying games to select from last weekend and overall those games went 4-15 to overs. Some comfort but not that much help to our depleted betting banks. Please see below for the up to date stats:
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 107-5
Over 1.5 goals 94-18
Over 2.5 goals 64-48
Over 3.5 goals 37-75
Yes on BTTS 65-47
Home wins 52 Draws 22 Away wins 38
It's been a long week and I'm very tired so the thought of writing out all of my thoughts does not appeal to me so I am just giving you the games......naked.....with no write up! Maybe a change of presentation will help kickstart some better results.
Ujpest v Diosgyor (price not published yet but will be comfortably over the 7/10 target we set), Hungarian OTP Bank Liga, 230pm Saturday kick off
Toulouse v Bordeaux @ 6/5 French Ligue One, 7pm Saturday kick off
Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg @ 3/4 German Bundesliga, 230 pm Sunday kick off
Genk v Oostende @ 3/4 Belgian Pro League, 5pm Sunday kick off
All the best folks, enjoy the weekend and be lucky.
Jimmy
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 107-5
Over 1.5 goals 94-18
Over 2.5 goals 64-48
Over 3.5 goals 37-75
Yes on BTTS 65-47
Home wins 52 Draws 22 Away wins 38
It's been a long week and I'm very tired so the thought of writing out all of my thoughts does not appeal to me so I am just giving you the games......naked.....with no write up! Maybe a change of presentation will help kickstart some better results.
Ujpest v Diosgyor (price not published yet but will be comfortably over the 7/10 target we set), Hungarian OTP Bank Liga, 230pm Saturday kick off
Toulouse v Bordeaux @ 6/5 French Ligue One, 7pm Saturday kick off
Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg @ 3/4 German Bundesliga, 230 pm Sunday kick off
Genk v Oostende @ 3/4 Belgian Pro League, 5pm Sunday kick off
All the best folks, enjoy the weekend and be lucky.
Jimmy
Saturday 5 March 2016
Sunday Goal Rush
Hello Team
Well yesterday was a disappointment. My strongest thoughts were in the Oldham v Swindon and that was the game that was postponed! At 430pm with no goals in either of the games I think we were already resigned to our fate so in the end a 0-1 and 1-1 was not the worst outcome on our overall selection process.
The season long record is obviously still good but we have to be disappointed with the recent results. I cannot put my finger on the reasons for a poorer recent performance and am putting this down to natural variance as the method of game selection and analysis has not changed. Obviously I am keeping a close eye on how things progress as I'm wary of letting things slide further but at present we will keep going with our tried and tested methods. Anyway please see below for the updated season long record and our two Sunday picks:
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 106-4
Over 1.5 goals 94-16
Over 2.5 goals 64-46
Over 3.5 goals 37-73
Yes on BTTS 65-45
Home wins 52 Draws 21 Away wins 37
Mainz 05 v Darmstadt @ Evens German Bundesliga, 230pm UK Kick Off Time
It was a 3-2 win for Mainz when the sides met earlier this season so neither side will fear the other going into this game. When Mainz take on bottom third placed sides there has been goals aplenty as their eight games in this spot have seen thirty one goals. Darmstadt are dreadful in this spot as they are 0-2-7 against top third placed sides and they have conceded twenty three goals in those nine games. They have at least scored eight goals in those matches and recently away from home they have been in fine goal scoring form. They've scored nine goals in their last five away games including finding the back of the net away at Bayern Munich. I think we can trust Darmstadt to score at least once and give the fact they've conceded twice or more in seven of their last nine games give me the overs to hit here!
Vitoria Setubal v Moreirense @ 11/10 Portugese Primeira Liga, 4pm UK Kick Off Time
Mid table Vitoria Setubal host relegation threatened Moreirense for our final game of the Goal Rush weekend. Setubal won 2-0 when the sides met back in October but prior to that all of the four meetings of the teams since January 2013 have gone over 2.5 goals. Setubal scored in all of those games and have recorded 2-1 and 5-0 wins on home soil. Games involving Setubal and bottom half placed teams have seen forty one goals in just twelve games and despite their lowly league position Moreirense are averaging over a goal per game in this same spot. In fact with the visitors scoring in twelve straight league games and Yes on BTTS going 8-1 in their last nine games I see this as a good solid selection for us. Setubal have conceded in twelve straight league games and have kept just two clean sheets at home all season. Lets take the over 2.5 goals in this one to finish off our weekend!
All the best folks
Jimmy
Well yesterday was a disappointment. My strongest thoughts were in the Oldham v Swindon and that was the game that was postponed! At 430pm with no goals in either of the games I think we were already resigned to our fate so in the end a 0-1 and 1-1 was not the worst outcome on our overall selection process.
The season long record is obviously still good but we have to be disappointed with the recent results. I cannot put my finger on the reasons for a poorer recent performance and am putting this down to natural variance as the method of game selection and analysis has not changed. Obviously I am keeping a close eye on how things progress as I'm wary of letting things slide further but at present we will keep going with our tried and tested methods. Anyway please see below for the updated season long record and our two Sunday picks:
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 106-4
Over 1.5 goals 94-16
Over 2.5 goals 64-46
Over 3.5 goals 37-73
Yes on BTTS 65-45
Home wins 52 Draws 21 Away wins 37
Mainz 05 v Darmstadt @ Evens German Bundesliga, 230pm UK Kick Off Time
It was a 3-2 win for Mainz when the sides met earlier this season so neither side will fear the other going into this game. When Mainz take on bottom third placed sides there has been goals aplenty as their eight games in this spot have seen thirty one goals. Darmstadt are dreadful in this spot as they are 0-2-7 against top third placed sides and they have conceded twenty three goals in those nine games. They have at least scored eight goals in those matches and recently away from home they have been in fine goal scoring form. They've scored nine goals in their last five away games including finding the back of the net away at Bayern Munich. I think we can trust Darmstadt to score at least once and give the fact they've conceded twice or more in seven of their last nine games give me the overs to hit here!
Vitoria Setubal v Moreirense @ 11/10 Portugese Primeira Liga, 4pm UK Kick Off Time
Mid table Vitoria Setubal host relegation threatened Moreirense for our final game of the Goal Rush weekend. Setubal won 2-0 when the sides met back in October but prior to that all of the four meetings of the teams since January 2013 have gone over 2.5 goals. Setubal scored in all of those games and have recorded 2-1 and 5-0 wins on home soil. Games involving Setubal and bottom half placed teams have seen forty one goals in just twelve games and despite their lowly league position Moreirense are averaging over a goal per game in this same spot. In fact with the visitors scoring in twelve straight league games and Yes on BTTS going 8-1 in their last nine games I see this as a good solid selection for us. Setubal have conceded in twelve straight league games and have kept just two clean sheets at home all season. Lets take the over 2.5 goals in this one to finish off our weekend!
All the best folks
Jimmy
Friday 4 March 2016
Goal Rush Saturday
A poor 1-3 weekend last time out but this weekend we have a double bubble with both a Saturday and Sunday column as we look to hit back. So far this campaign our results are as below:
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 104-1
Over 1.5 goals 93-15
Over 2.5 goals 64-44
Over 3.5 goals 37-71
Yes on BTTS 64-44
Home wins 52 Draws 20 Away wins 36
All three games this Saturday are in English Division One with 3pm kick offs and this league averages 2.68 goals per game.
Oldham v Swindon @ Evens
Oldham are deep in the relegation mire and the trends suggest that they will need to score at least two goals here to have any chance of gaining three points. They did win 2-1 in Swindon back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and both of last seasons games also saw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. The teams' combined twenty four games in this spot (bottom third v mid third placed teams) have seen a total of eighty one goals. Give me the overs!
Southend v Chesterfield @ 19/20
Eight placed and promotion hunting Southend host a Chesterfield side who are nervously looking over their shoulder at the relegation places. Chesterfield won the first meeting of the sides 3-0 earlier this season and this fixture has been littered with goals over the past few years. Over 2.5 goals has hit 7-1 since October 2010 and despite their lowly league position Chesterfield have only failed to score in three of thirteen matches against sides in the top third. I will trust the Spireites to find the net at least once in this game and help us cash on the over 2.5 goal line.
Wigan v Peterborough @ 4/5
Championship chasers Wigan host a Peterborough side who have lost five on the bounce in league action. The Latics won 3-2 away at London Road back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and we look set for more goals here. The teams' combined twenty five games in this spot (top third versus mid third placed sides) have seen a total of eighty one goals. In fact Peterborough's seventeen away matches this season have seen fifty six total goals and nothing tells me that this game will be any different. Hit this over folks at what looks a very good price!
I welcome feedback from you all. Do you want more analysis on the games or would you in fact just like the games with no write up? Unlike my ex girlfriend I am eager and willing to please so just let me know.
Be lucky, all the best and I shall be back Sunday morning with two games from somewhere across Europe of destinations still to be disclosed.........
Jimmy
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 104-1
Over 1.5 goals 93-15
Over 2.5 goals 64-44
Over 3.5 goals 37-71
Yes on BTTS 64-44
Home wins 52 Draws 20 Away wins 36
All three games this Saturday are in English Division One with 3pm kick offs and this league averages 2.68 goals per game.
Oldham v Swindon @ Evens
Oldham are deep in the relegation mire and the trends suggest that they will need to score at least two goals here to have any chance of gaining three points. They did win 2-1 in Swindon back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and both of last seasons games also saw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. The teams' combined twenty four games in this spot (bottom third v mid third placed teams) have seen a total of eighty one goals. Give me the overs!
Southend v Chesterfield @ 19/20
Eight placed and promotion hunting Southend host a Chesterfield side who are nervously looking over their shoulder at the relegation places. Chesterfield won the first meeting of the sides 3-0 earlier this season and this fixture has been littered with goals over the past few years. Over 2.5 goals has hit 7-1 since October 2010 and despite their lowly league position Chesterfield have only failed to score in three of thirteen matches against sides in the top third. I will trust the Spireites to find the net at least once in this game and help us cash on the over 2.5 goal line.
Wigan v Peterborough @ 4/5
Championship chasers Wigan host a Peterborough side who have lost five on the bounce in league action. The Latics won 3-2 away at London Road back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and we look set for more goals here. The teams' combined twenty five games in this spot (top third versus mid third placed sides) have seen a total of eighty one goals. In fact Peterborough's seventeen away matches this season have seen fifty six total goals and nothing tells me that this game will be any different. Hit this over folks at what looks a very good price!
I welcome feedback from you all. Do you want more analysis on the games or would you in fact just like the games with no write up? Unlike my ex girlfriend I am eager and willing to please so just let me know.
Be lucky, all the best and I shall be back Sunday morning with two games from somewhere across Europe of destinations still to be disclosed.........
Jimmy
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)