End of season #GoalRush column

End of season #GoalRush Round Up

We are getting to the nervy stage of the season where games become less predictable. As results for the column have been very poor of late I've taken the decision to retire the column for the season to undertake further research.

Please see below for the season long record and although the past six weeks have been rough I think it's been a solid and decent first season for the column.

Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 114-5
Over 1.5 goals 98-21
Over 2.5 goals 66-53
Over 3.5 goals 39-80
Yes on BTTS 67-52
Home wins 56 Draws 23 Away wins 40


I would be lying if I said it had been a hard decision to pull the column for the final few weeks of the season as it's been a really easy one. At the beginning of the day on 31st January we stood at a fantastic 58-33 to over 2.5 goals.  Fast forward six weeks and we've gone on an 8-20 run and although I would have accepted our season long record at the beginning of the campaign this recent form is something I need to address.

Each week the number of games that meets the criteria has reduced and the overall performance of those selections has also declined. This week for example only nine games across the whole of Europe hit the criteria. Two were omitted on the basis of price and the other seven potential bets went 1-6. Earlier in the season when we were successful we were often getting twenty five hit the criteria and around 50% of total possible bets hitting the over.

Has the recent run just been a retracement to the mean? I think I've discovered something but I think it's only fair that I now don't post any further selections until I've tried to iron out some of the issues that's led to our poor run.

The column will be back next season for sure as its too much fun not to research and interact with you good folks on. In what form and on what platform it'll be available on I'm not sure yet but I will keep you fully briefed!


Yours in goals
Jimmy

Weekend Goal Rush

Here we are again at the weekend people and I'm pleased to say we steadied the ship with a 2-2 showing last Saturday/Sunday. It appears that goals are doing up all over Europe as the volume of games that qualify for our consideration is dwindling week by week. However, I've still managed to piece together three games that look spot on to deliver the goods but first let's take a peek at our results so far this campaign:


Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 111-5
Over 1.5 goals 96-20
Over 2.5 goals 66-50
Over 3.5 goals 39-77
Yes on BTTS 66-50
Home wins 56 Draws 22 Away wins 38


Everton v Arsenal @8/11 English Premier League, 1245pm UK Kick Off Saturday
Arsenal have their season hopes hanging by a thread as they make the trip to Goodison Park this Saturday for the EPL's lunchtime kick off. The home team have struggled on their own patch this season but there has been plenty of goalmouth action with over 2.5 goals going 10-5. On the road Arsenal have also been full of goals as they are 9-6 to the over and this will be a fast and open game and an early goal should ignite this encounter. I love the overs on the goal line though as Arsenal can't defend at the moment whilst the home team look the ideal fodder for Arsenal's slick passing moves.

Roma v Inter @ 19/20 Italian Serie A, 745pm UK Kick Off Saturday 
These sides have met eighteen times since April 2007 with the over 2.5 goals going 11-7 in that run. Both sides have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks as both of their last six games in league action have gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Roma are 9-5 to over 2.5 goals at the home whilst Inter's fourteen away games have seen thirty four total goals. Give me the overs to hit here in this new Serie A that sees plenty of goals.

Sion v Basel @ 4/5 Swiss Super League, 3pm Sunday 
The Swiss League is averaging 3.08 goals per game so far this season so it's a surprise to see this game priced at such an attractive price. Basel have gone a total 18-5 to the over 2.5 goals this season and on the road they are a strong 8-3 away from home to the over. There have been at least two goals in twenty three of Basel's twenty four league matches this season. The risk/reward looks stacked very much to the reward side here so I'm happy to take overs in this game to top the weekend off.


All the best and speak soon
Jimmy

Weekend Goal Rush

Last weekend saw a horrific 0-4 weekend for us but we should try and keep this all in perspective. If you'd have offered me this record of 64-48 at the beginning of the season then I would probably have taken it. Sadly though recent weeks have really put a dent into both profits and confidence. I have not been doing anything differently in terms of research or analysis and I think, he says fingers crossed, last week was just a blip. I have taken some solace from the fact that we had nineteen qualifying games to select from last weekend and overall those games went 4-15 to overs. Some comfort but not that much help to our depleted betting banks. Please see below for the up to date stats:

Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 107-5
Over 1.5 goals 94-18
Over 2.5 goals 64-48
Over 3.5 goals 37-75
Yes on BTTS 65-47
Home wins 52 Draws 22 Away wins 38


It's been a long week and I'm very tired so the thought of writing out all of my thoughts does not appeal to me so I am just giving you the games......naked.....with no write up! Maybe a change of presentation will help kickstart some better results.

Ujpest v Diosgyor (price not published yet but will be comfortably over the 7/10 target we set), Hungarian OTP Bank Liga, 230pm Saturday kick off

Toulouse v Bordeaux @ 6/5 French Ligue One, 7pm Saturday kick off

Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg @ 3/4 German Bundesliga, 230 pm Sunday kick off

Genk v Oostende @ 3/4 Belgian Pro League, 5pm Sunday kick off


All the best folks, enjoy the weekend and be lucky.
Jimmy

Sunday Goal Rush

Hello Team

Well yesterday was a disappointment. My strongest thoughts were in the Oldham v Swindon and that was the game that was postponed! At 430pm with no goals in either of the games I think we were already resigned to our fate so in the end a 0-1 and 1-1 was not the worst outcome on our overall selection process.

The season long record is obviously still good but we have to be disappointed with the recent results. I cannot put my finger on the reasons for a poorer recent performance and am putting this down to natural variance as the method of game selection and analysis has not changed. Obviously I am keeping a close eye on how things progress as I'm wary of letting things slide further but at present we will keep going with our tried and tested methods. Anyway please see below for the updated season long record and our two Sunday picks:


Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 106-4
Over 1.5 goals 94-16
Over 2.5 goals 64-46
Over 3.5 goals 37-73
Yes on BTTS 65-45
Home wins 52 Draws 21 Away wins 37


Mainz 05 v Darmstadt @ Evens German Bundesliga, 230pm UK Kick Off Time
It was a 3-2 win for Mainz when the sides met earlier this season so neither side will fear the other going into this game. When Mainz take on bottom third placed sides there has been goals aplenty as their eight games in this spot have seen thirty one goals. Darmstadt are dreadful in this spot as they are 0-2-7 against top third placed sides and they have conceded twenty three goals in those nine games. They have at least scored eight goals in those matches and recently away from home they have been in fine goal scoring form. They've scored nine goals in their last five away games including finding the back of the net away at Bayern Munich. I think we can trust Darmstadt to score at least once and give the fact they've conceded twice or more in seven of their last nine games give me the overs to hit here!


Vitoria Setubal v Moreirense @ 11/10 Portugese Primeira Liga, 4pm UK Kick Off Time
Mid table Vitoria Setubal host relegation threatened Moreirense for our final game of the Goal Rush weekend. Setubal won 2-0 when the sides met back in October but prior to that all of the four meetings of the teams since January 2013 have gone over 2.5 goals. Setubal scored in all of those games and have recorded 2-1 and 5-0 wins on home soil. Games involving Setubal and bottom half placed teams have seen forty one goals in just twelve games and despite their lowly league position Moreirense are averaging over a goal per game in this same spot. In fact with the visitors scoring in twelve straight league games and Yes on BTTS going 8-1 in their last nine games I see this as a good solid selection for us. Setubal have conceded in twelve straight league games and have kept just two clean sheets at home all season. Lets take the over 2.5 goals in this one to finish off our weekend!


All the best folks
Jimmy

Goal Rush Saturday

A poor 1-3 weekend last time out but this weekend we have a double bubble with both a Saturday and Sunday column as we look to hit back. So far this campaign our results are as below:


Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 104-1
Over 1.5 goals 93-15
Over 2.5 goals 64-44
Over 3.5 goals 37-71
Yes on BTTS 64-44
Home wins 52 Draws 20 Away wins 36

All three games this Saturday are in English Division One with 3pm kick offs and this league averages 2.68 goals per game.


Oldham v Swindon @ Evens
Oldham are deep in the relegation mire and the trends suggest that they will need to score at least two goals here to have any chance of gaining three points. They did win 2-1 in Swindon back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and both of last seasons games also saw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. The teams' combined twenty four games in this spot (bottom third v mid third placed teams) have seen a total of eighty one goals. Give me the overs!


Southend v Chesterfield @ 19/20
Eight placed and promotion hunting Southend host a Chesterfield side who are nervously looking over their shoulder at the relegation places. Chesterfield won the first meeting of the sides 3-0 earlier this season and this fixture has been littered with goals over the past few years. Over 2.5 goals has hit 7-1 since October 2010 and despite their lowly league position Chesterfield have only failed to score in three of thirteen matches against sides in the top third. I will trust the Spireites to find the net at least once in this game and help us cash on the over 2.5 goal line.


Wigan v Peterborough @ 4/5 
Championship chasers Wigan host a Peterborough side who have lost five on the bounce in league action. The Latics won 3-2 away at London Road back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and we look set for more goals here. The teams' combined twenty five games in this spot (top third versus mid third placed sides) have seen a total of eighty one goals. In fact Peterborough's seventeen away matches this season have seen fifty six total goals and nothing tells me that this game will be any different. Hit this over folks at what looks a very good price!


I welcome feedback from you all. Do you want more analysis on the games or would you in fact just like the games with no write up? Unlike my ex girlfriend I am eager and willing to please so just let me know.

Be lucky, all the best and I shall be back Sunday morning with two games from somewhere across Europe of destinations still to be disclosed.........


Jimmy

Weekend Goal Rush

Hello folks

Hope we are all well but I have no time for niceties this week. Nice guys finish last and in recent weeks we've been last. It's time to get nasty!


Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 101-3 97.11%
Over 1.5 goals 91-13  87.5%
Over 2.5 goals 63-41  60.58%
Over 3.5 goals 37-67  35.58%
Yes on BTTS 63-41 60.58%
Home wins 51 Draws 19 Away wins 34


As the minimum price we are looking for is 1.7 (although a couple of early games this season were a tad lower than that) I have taken a conservative average of 1.78 for winning bets. That leaves us with a profit of 8.14 points for the over 2.5 goals which equates to an ROI of 7.82% which is a very respectable level of return.

Right let's hope we have some bad boy behaviour in terms of sendings off and penalties to help us get back on the right track. Four games, all with different kick off times which gives us plenty of extended entertainment.


Trabzonspor v Osmanlispor @ 21/20 Turkish Super Lig, 5pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday 
Dipping into the Turkish league has proved successful of late for us and here is the first of two such journeys this GoalRush weekend. When the teams faced off for the first time this season it was Osmanlispor who emerged 3-1 victors back in September. These sides both sit mid table in ninth and eight placed respectively and games against similar opposition have yielded a total of thirty four goals in a combined eleven games. Over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 in Trabzonspor's last eight league games whilst Osmanlispor have scored three or more goals in three of their last four league outings.  All of this points to a number of goals being scored in this game so let's hope the number is three or more!


Troyes v L'Orient @ 7/10 French Ligue 1, 7pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday
For the late game this Saturday we head to our dear neighbours France and Ligue One is only averaging 2.43 goals this season so at first glance this price may look a little short. When the sides met back in November though it was L'Orient who ran out convincing 4-1 winners. Although the sides have not met for a few seasons both of the match ups back in the 2012-13 season went over 3.5 goals. Troyes have failed to win at home this season as their 0-6-7 home record has seen them score just eight goals. However, when L'Orient play sides in the bottom third of the table there have
been no fewer than thirty eight total goals scored. The chances of the away side keeping a clean sheet look remote and given the fact that Troyes have scored two or more goals three of their last seven and L'Orient have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last eleven games I sense this an excellent chance for a high scoring game.


Sivaspor v Antalyaspor @ 4/5 Turkish Super Lig, 1130am Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Bottom placed Sivaspor host a comfortably placed mid table Antalyaspor as they look for their third win on home soil this season. Despite being rooted at the foot of the table the home side are 2-6-2 when entertaining sides this campaign so they are no push over on home soil. Recent meetings of the sides have been jam packed full of goals as the last twelve meetings have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals hitting at 8-4 and Yes on BTTS going 9-3. It was one apiece earlier in the season when the teams met so I'm happy to side with their being at least one further goal and us cashing an over 2.5 ticket this Sunday lunchtime.


Udinese v Hellas Verona @ 21/20 Italian Serie A, 2pm Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Relegation threatened Udinese host rock bottom Hellas Verona this Sunday in a critical game in the Serie A survival battle. These teams are nineteenth and twentieth in the form table in this spot of playing fellow bottom third opposition and they've kept only a combined three clean sheets in those eighteen matches. Serie A is averaging 2.59 goals so far this season but recent matches between the sides have seen there share of goals as the last five league games have seen fourteen total goals and just one clean sheet. Verona have won their last two trips to this stadium, 2-1 last season and 3-1 in 2013-14, so they will no fear making this journey and they know time is beginning to run out for them as they lie seven points clear of safety. This is a winnable game for them and I expect it to be open as with Udidense keeping one clean sheet in nine and Verona one clean sheet in fifteen neither side will trust their defence!



All the best
Jimmy

Weekend Goal Rush

A 2-2 last weekend and after taking an early lead we were forced to come back with a late German equaliser to ensure we came out with a 50:50 record and a small loss. A rare 0-0 spoiled my Saturday last weekend as although I don't take too kindly to losing bets I hate being as wrong as we were in Poland! I did get a couple of nice messages from chaps who are using this column to pick games that are to go over 3.5 goals. I've learnt that my work is being looked at by a variety of different folk at all staking levels and from all angles, from over 0.5 goals to over 3.5 goals and Yes on BTTS bets. My main priority is to select games to hit over 2.5 goals but as I keep stressing this is an evolving study. In the summer I plan to go back through, as I didn't keep the records to begin with, to see if there is any correlation between the Home win/Away win/Draw and Yes on BTTS. If so, have we found a way to profit from the Team A to win and BTTS type bets that are now readily available at all bookmakers. Let's see how we stack up season long and onto the weekend.

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 99-2
Over 1.5 goals 89-12
Over 2.5 goals 62-39
Over 3.5 goals 37-64
Yes on BTTS 61-40
Home wins 50 Draws 17 Away wins 34


Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg @ 5/6 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time
For the first game this weekend we head off to one of our favourite haunts, the Bundesliga. This game looks primed to add to the season long league average of 2.79 goals as both teams have seen plenty of goals in their games so far this season. Ironically the 0-0 draw between them back in September has probably helped us gain a tidy price. Prior to that goalless draw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals had cashed in four straight meetings. Recent league outings for both sides have seen them struggle to keep it clean defensively. Frankfurt have conceded in all but one home game so far this season and their opposition have scored twenty goals in Frankfurt's last nine league games. Hamburg have been no tidier at the back as Yes on BTTS has gone 10-1 in their last eleven games so it's hard to put a case forward for either team to keep a clean sheet. As its hard, I won't bother! Give me over 2.5 goals here to get us off to a cracking start to the weekend.


Antalyaspor v Rizespor @ 20/23 Turkish Super Lig, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
The Turkish Super Lig has been quite good to us so far this season as this league which is not always considered to be a flowing and open one has seen plenty of goals. The average goals per game currently sits at 2.7 and I really like this game to get us off to a good start this Saturday. When the sides met back in September it was Rizespor who ran out 5-1 winners in a result that belies the fact that they lie just one place above, thirteenth, Antalyaspor. It is a small sample size but all three meetings of the sides since October 2013 have all seen Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bets cash. Antalyaspor have kept just one clean sheet in thirteen home games whilst Rizespor have seen each of their last five league matches cash Yes on BTTS tickets. Let's take some of the over in what should be an open and entertaining game.


Vitoria Setubal v Nacional @ 23/20 Portugese Primeira Liga, Saturday 6pm UK Kick Off Time
Having ran my complicated #GoalRush algorithm or alternatively sat there working my games out with pen and paper (you decide which I do) I was amazed to see this priced odds against. There have been at least two goals scored in thirteen of the last fourteen head to head meetings of the sides. Setubal home games have gone 7-4 to over 2.5 goals this season and Nacional have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last ten league outings. On that basis we may not need the away side to score to cash an over 2.5 bet.  Fear not though as the leaky Setubal backline has not kept a clean sheet I any of their last ten league matches. At this juicy market price of odds against let's take a nice chunk of the overs for our final bet for the Saturday #GoalRush column.


There may, I say me, be a bonus Sunday edition of the column but needing to firm a few things up before I confirm.


Best of luck everybody and speak soon
Jimmy

Goal Rush Weekend

I feel like a manager not wanting to criticise his players during a bad run. I know everyone is putting in maximum effort and it's not for the lack of trying. We are on a 3-5 run the last two weeks but all eight games have seen at least two goals. Even more frustratingly the five losing bets have seen the second goal scored in 41st, 41st, 45th, 52nd and 75th minutes. They seem good bets and in each of those, maybe bar the last, you'd take two goals after those minutes if you'd been offered them before the game kicked off. Anyway, less of my of moaning and on to the numbers.

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 96-1
Over 1.5 goals 86-11
Over 2.5 goals 60-37
Over 3.5 goals 35-62
Yes on BTTS 58-39
Home wins 48 Draws 15 Away wins 34

This week we have four games, starting Friday night, so let's look to hit a nice 3-1 weekend!

Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa @ 4/5 Turkey Super Ligue, Friday 6pm Kick Off UK Time
Top of the table Fenerbahe host seventh placed Kasimpasa in a Friday night offering for the first of our five games this weekend. The last two meetings of the sides have gone under 2.5 goals but prior to that the over was on a 8-3 run since October 2007. The key to this game hitting the over is the potential for Kasimpasa to find the net and they've done that in three of their last five trips to Fenerbahce. They failed to find the net in their last game at home to Genclerbirligi but before that they scored in seven straight matches. Their seven games against fellow top third opposition have yielded twenty goals and the hosts have scored in every league game so far this season. Fenerbahce lost last time out 4-2 away to mid table Antalyaspor so there is no reason why the away side cannot bag a goal or two.  With the Turkey top flight averaging 2.70 goals per game I will take this game to hit the over.

Avellino v Bari @ 23/20 Italy Serie B, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
Serie B is averaging just 2.35 goals per game this season so it's easy to see why this game is priced up at well over odds against. The sides have met fifteen times in all competitions since November 2003 and only three of those games have seen one or less goal and there have been no goalless draws. Those historical trends are rare in the notoriously cagey Italian lower leagues. Avellino's twelve home games so far this campaign have seen a total of thirty five goals whilst the first game between the sides ended 2-1 to the home team in Bari back in September. Avellino have scored in twenty one straight Serie B games whilst Bari have needed five times in their last three games so at this price point I see excellent risk/reward in this over 2.5 goals play.

Gornik Leczna v Piast Gliwice @ Evens Polish Ekstraklasa, Saturday 230pm Kick Off Time
We welcome the Polish Ekstraklasa back after their mid season break and here I see a game that will waken everyone from their winter slumber. The mid table home side have seen much more than the 2.64 goals per game league average as their ten home games have seen a total of thirty two goals. On their travels the visitors' ten away games have yielded a total of thirty six goals and Piast Gliwice have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight league games. You have to be slightly cautious given the extended off time both teams have had but on a pure trends basis this is an incredible price. Made even more enticing by the fact that the last three meetings of the sides have all cashed an over 2.5 goal ticket.

FC Cologne v Eintracht Frankfurt @ 11/13 German Bundesliga, Saturday 530pm UK Kick Off Time
2.78 goals per game is the league average for the Bundesliga and it's fair to say FC Cologne have been one of the lower scorers, especially at home, in this league. Just seventeen goals in their ten home games makes this at first glance a strange selection. However, this game over the last two seasons has seen nineteen goals in just three meetings and despite those low scoring games for Cologne this season each of their last five league games have seen Yes on BTTS. Frankfurt have conceded seventeen goals in their last eight matches so there appears to be no signs that this will be a low scoring game. Given the recent trends when these sides meet I am delighted to get this over 2.5 goal bet priced as generously as it is.


There we go peeps and the best of British luck to you all.

Jimmy

Super Bowl 50

Super Bowl 50 - The grand finale to a truly amazing season

The crowds gather each year at the same time in early February with millions watching around the world in anticipation. All waiting to see if the old master is ready to come out and play or if he wants to curl up and wait for the warmer weather to return. I'm obviously talking about Punxsutawney Phil but the same thing could apply to Peyton Manning and the ‘Sheriff’ is hoping this Sunday is not going to be his very own Groundhog Day.

The comparisons to two years ago in New York are frightening and one of the only things that appears to have changed is Manning's ability to play the game. Two years ago he was struggling to reach his former heights but now he is floundering, like a fish stuck out of water, and the betting line adjustment from twenty four months ago is stark. Denver were two point favourites against the Seahawks but here they are five and a half point dogs to Carolina when their defense is considerably stronger than it was two years ago. 

We all know American Football is a long drawn out game that for many sports fans is just not worth the hassle. Us, the converted, know this not to be a true and that it is the most interesting and strategically fascinating game ever invented. But even I can admit that Super Bowl Sunday is a long fucking day! So whether you're stood in a sports book in Vegas (as there is no way you will get a seat), enjoying a party round your buddies in the States, drinking beer in one of the many late night establishments staying open in the UK or if you're just like me who plans to sit watching it on my sofa in my pants (underwear to my American friends) drinking beer and eating pizza then I have a bet for all occasions.

I don't plan on losing all of these bets but to me the Super Bowl is all about fun. Fun bets, put on for fun and you should only bet a level of money that you'd be prepared to burn in front of your face. So I have covered off a few of the major talking point bets that crop up at this time of year and a bet in each of these markets should at least keep you awake long enough to put on your poorly voice and phone in sick Monday morning. Oh and one thing, please don’t empty your entire wallet on bets before the game even kicks off……………………………

 

The National Anthem

Lady Gaga really does love to drag things out and I see the Vegas line is set around the 140 seconds whereas Coral over here have the line set at 137 ½ seconds. The over is available at Even money and whilst two and a half seconds may not sound much in these such bets they are vital. Give me Lady G to hang onto that last note for an eternity and enable us to cash.

 

Coin toss

You have had heard of coin flip games, well this is a coin flip bet and it’s been pretty even over the forty nine Super Bowl’s so far with Tails leading25-24 against Heads. Heads comes into this game very confident as they are on a 5-2 run over the past seven encounters so the recent form suggests Heads is the side to be on. WTF am I talking about, it’s a coin flip! The muggiest of all mug bets and although Tails does often fail give me that side of the coin at a generally available price of 20/21. You really didn’t think they’d give you Even money did you?

 

First Score

Everybody in Vegas loves to bet the safety and I was in Caesars Palace two years ago when that snap flew past Peyton Manning’s head. The safety cashed and the whole place erupted! At a best price of 50/1 with Paddy Power there are worst bets to be had than that one as it covers both teams whilst a safety for ether named team is 100/1 with Betway. At 6/4 with Bet Victor the Field Goal option looks a decent play to me as historically both teams look to feel each other out early in this contest. Risks are not taken at 0-0 and the opportunity to put points on the board to settle the early nerves is rarely overlooked.

 

Match Market

I don’t think they will win but at 2/1 with Ladbrokes the bet on the underdog is the only one I would consider. In all honesty a pass from me.

 

Point Line

Carolina are -5 ½ and a bet on this line does not appeal to me at all. I do like the Panthers a lot to win this game but it’s hard not to reflect back two years and come to a conclusion based on that result. It is the side I would take but I sense there are better ways to be with a Carolina victory than by betting on this point line.

 

The first song that Coldplay will play at half time

Ladbrokes and William Hill both have A Sky Full of Stars at 7/1 and although they usually tend to play this late in their sets they could flip it around. They only have a small number of songs to play so they want to play the most popular that resonate with the majority rather than their core fanbase. A market though to maybe keep a careful eye on during the day because often THEY know.

 

The last song that Coldplay will play at half time

Viva La Vida.  They talk about “Ruling the world” in this song don’t they? Super Bowl champions are the world champions. Simple logic folks and its available at 7/1 with BWin. As per above be careful THEY may know.

 

Cam Newton Rushing Yards

I was pricing this up in my head during the week and I had this around the 47 ½ yard mark. To see Paddy Power post this line at 38 ½ @ 5/6 was like a gift from the gods! Newton has ran for more than thirty yards in twelve of his eighteen games this season. The Denver defense is a very stout unit but their schedule has not seen them come up against many mobile quarterbacks. Alex Smith ran for fifteen and thirty three yards in his two games for the Chiefs and that’s the closest comparison you can make. Newton is a different animal though and we’ve seen in recent games his willingness to take massive hits in search of extra yards in pursuit for glory. With the Broncos defense looking to lock down the Carolina receivers I see Cam tucking it under, using the read option and running on several occasions and after three or four runs that line of just under forty yards should look very achievable!

 

Longest touchdown

This market includes any kick return as well as offensive and defensive plays. Given that possibility and the potential for a big Cam run or Ted Ginn Jnr to explode I will take some of the over 40 ½ yards with Bet Victor @ 9/10.

 

Winning margin

I think the only way to play this is to back Carolina to win big as if you like the Broncos it's clearly going to be in a close dogfight of a game. If you like them then you're probably already on Denver at healthy odds against prices. Give me a little bit of the 13/2 that is available at Ladbrokes for the Panthers to win by 13-18 points.

 

MVP

Twenty seven of the previous forty nine and five of the last six MVP's have been quarterbacks. Can anyone else for Carolina gain this award? How many tackles would Keuchly have to make, how many interceptions for Norman, how many yards rushing and receiving for Ginn Jnr and Stewart. Yes it could happen but can you really see them winning without him making one phenomenal take your breathe type of play? No.  The best price for Carolina is 4/9 yet Cam Newton is 8/11 with both Coral and Ladbrokes for the MVP. This bet is a good way to improve your odds on the Carolina win as it’s only a slim chance that the Panthers lift the trophy without Cam also hoisting the MVP award above his head. I suppose I better throw in an alternative in case Denver win the game and the obvious choice would be for Manning to ride off into the sunset with confetti falling around him. However, I think the ‘Sheriff’ will have a tough night and it may be down to the Denver Special Teams to have a decisive contribution to any potential Broncos success. Jordon Norwood should see plenty of punt return action if the much heralded Denver defense halts the Panthers offense and at 300/1 with 888 Sport he seems an interesting play. Admittedly he will have to run back at least one punt for a touchdown and probably even take one of his rare receptions in the passing game in for a touchdown (which he hasn’t done all season) but it’s a bit of fun folks……and he is 300/1!

 

Colour of the Gatorade

THEY always seem to know how this one is going to play out so be very watchful during the day for line moves. Initially orange is a best priced 6/4 and a worse price 4/7 but I will keep away from that and look to blue. That colour is as long as 8/1 with Boyle Sports but as low as 5/2 elsewhere so give me some of the blue and I will admit it’s a complete play on Carolina winning.

 

Well there we go folks. A slightly tongue in cheek end to the season where I only really love one of the above bets and that is the Cam Newton rushing yards. In fact thinking about it whilst I wrote the rest of this article I have to say it would be one of my favourite bets of the entire season.

The Super Bowl is truly for enjoyment purposes only as the lines in the main markets are so tight. Have a great night and I shall be back in August, NFL wise, for my thoughts for the 2017 season. I’m getting excited about it already!

 

All the best

Jimmy

 

Goal Rush Weekend

A 2-3 weekend but all five games saw at least two goals which at least gives us further reassurance that our system and analysis is picking good games to participate in. Thankfully the rest of Europe is waking up after its Winter slumber so the amount of games we have to pick from will only increase week on week. I'm wary of diving in too deep on leagues that are just returning so we will stick to the tried and trusted this weekend!

Stats to date are:

Over 0.5 goals 93-1
Over 1.5 goals 83-11
Over 2.5 goals 59-35
Over 3.5 goals 34-60
Yes on BTTS 56-38
Home wins 47 Draws 14 Away wins 33

Three games this weekend, all in different countries and all at different times allowing you Acca lovers to get the best market odds rolling up each game rather than placing a single Acca with just one provider. Well that's fingers crossed for an early cash in Belgium......!


Crewe v Rochdale @ 4/5 English League One, 3pm Kick Off UK Time
Lowly Crewe host just below mid table Rochdale in a game that the Railwaymen will believe they have an excellent chance of gaining a home win in. The stats and trends do seem to be against them achieving that victory though as they are 3-7-3 when taking on fellow bottom half placed sides. Those thirteen games have seen a total of forty one goals and they lost both games between the sides last season. Not only did they lose them, they were spanked in them! 5-2 in this game in Crewe and 4-0 in the return game at Spotland but Dale have only kept one clean sheet in their last nine league games so this match is primed for goals.  Crewe know that we are getting to the stage of the season where draws do not help their plight much and an early goal in this game should ensure this is an end to end affair.


Zulte Waregem v Charleroi @ 17/20 Belgian Pro League, 745pm Kick Off UK Time
Over 2.5 goals is a season long 18-6 overall in Zulte games but they did fail to score when the sides met in Charleroi back in early October. Fear not though as Charleroi netted three times to ensure the over 2.5 goal bet cashed in that game as it has in the four straight and in five of the last seven league meetings of the teams. Yes on BTTS is 7-1 in the last eight Zulte league games and for a side well placed in the league their current run of just two clean sheets in eighteen games is hardly impressive. Mid table Charleroi have scored in twelve of their last thirteen games and with the memory of those three goals in their first meeting I see no reason why they won't score here. I really like this bet in a league that is a reliable provider of goals, currently averaging 2.83 goals per game and I see this game only driving that average up!


Sporting Gijon v Deportivo La Coruna @ 6/5 Spanish La Liga, 905pm Kick Off UK Time
Hopefully we are 2-0 by about 64 minutes of that Belgian game so you can roll your winnings onto this odds against shot! La Liga matches average 2.69 goals per game but I think we can all agree that those stats are perhaps artificially inflated by the influence of Barcelona and Real Madrid. For those at the bottom of the table, without a Messi or Ronaldo, finding the back of the net is not always the easiest of tasks. However, those games are where we can sometimes find the value and no more so than here. Gijon won the first meeting of the teams this season 3-2 in an exciting high scoring game in the famous Riazor. Historically there have been goals when these teams met and although I accept that we are going back to between October 2008 and May 2011 often trends continue over many years. During that time each game saw either Yes on BTTS (5-1) or over 2.5 goals (4-2) so with Yes and over cashing back in September of this season that only strengthened that run. Gijon have conceded more than once in seven of their last ten matches and Deportivo have scored in eighteen of their last twenty one matches. At a price of odds against this looks a very decent risk/reward bet to take as a Saturday nightcap before we settle down to watch Match Of The Day.


There we have it, another Goal Rush Saturday in the book. Enjoy the EPL games, listen to the podcast with myself and the legend himself @petenordsted which can be listened to here  http://bit.ly/1S1Qide

I shall be back on Sunday morning with my extra special Super Bowl column with my thoughts and a couple of crazy bet thoughts for what is always a great nights entertainment.

All the best
Jimmy

Sunday Goal Rush

Sunday Goal Rush

Morning Team Goals

A 1-1 Saturday saw us make a small loss and sometimes I think I'd rather a 0-0 to do us than a game like the French one where the scoreline went 2-0 after just fifty two minutes. I suppose to lose in those circumstances, as we have several times of late, does at least show the games we are zoning in on are good games. It doesn't cash us the bet but it should give us confidence moving forward that we are getting closer to cracking it.

After Saturday's games we stand as below and once again I will mention the seemingly continuing strength of the over 1.5 goal bets. Many of these bets can be gained at prices of 1.25 or better yet are currently hitting at a rate of 87.9%

Over 0.5 goals 90-1
Over 1.5 goals 80-11
Over 2.5 goals 58-33
Over 3.5 goals 33-58
Yes on BTTS 54-37
Home wins 45 Draws 13 Away wins 33


Caen v Nice @ 11/10 French Ligue One, 1pm Kick Off UK Time
Following on from yesterday's unsuccessful dabble into this usually low scoring league we find another game that appeals at favourable odds against prices. BTTS has landed in all three of the teams' meetings this season and last season and the first game this season ended 3-2 to Caen in Nice. Both sides reside in the top half of the division and the sides' twenty one combined games in this spot have seen a total of sixty one goals, well above the 2.42 league average of goals per game. This is another game where I see the prices slightly out of sync with what the trends suggest so I am happy to back the overs at odds against.

Napoli v Empoli @ 8/13 Italy Serie A, 2pm Kick Off UK Time
When I was a kid growing up this league used to be stodgy and boring! Not anymore and when these sides have met recently there have been goals galore as in the three meetings of the sides over this season and last all have gone over 3.5 goals. Both teams have scored at least twice in each of the games as there have been two 2-2 draws and a 4-2 Empoli win. We know that Napoli will more than likely score as they have scored two or more goals in eight of their last nine league games but will Empoli find the back of the net? The visitors have scored in all but one of their eleven away games this season and that blank on the road was achieved way back in September. Give me overs to land here but you may have to be patient on the Exchanges and work hard to get the best price you can.

Wolfsburg v FC Cologne @ 8/11 German Bundesliga, 230pm Kick Off UK Time
The Bundesliga is a league that has been very good to all backers of goals this season and not just ourselves here in this column. Seventeen of the last nineteen meetings of the sides dating back to October 2000 have seen two or more goals. Over 2.5 goals has hit 12-7 in those nineteen games and there has been some significant price move on this line. Overs has been backed in to 8/11 from a market wide 4/5 so although it frustrates me that we didn't get on earlier at least it seems we are on the side where the money is!


Best of luck folks and don't forget to look out for the midweek Premiership Betting Podcast with myself and @petenordsted which should be out later today.


Speak soon
Jimmy

Goal Rush Saturday

Morning Team Goals

A disappointing 1-2 Saturday for us last week but at least all three games saw two or more goals. This further reinforced those strong trends in the over 1.5 goals in our picks and it may be something you may want to consider moving forward. My main purpose for this column is to hit the over 2.5 goals bets and we did bounce back on Sunday with a tidy and easy cash in a 3-2 Bundesliga game!

There are quite a few games this weekend but rather than spill the beans all at once I thought I would split it down into two columns this week. A column for both Saturday and Saturday should keep you waiting in anticipation tomorrow for the next instalment. Who am I kidding there is only about seven people reading this drivel and maybe it's for the best as we don't want everyone cashing in on this do we!

This is where we stand stats wise for the season so far:

Over 0.5 goals 88-1
Over 1.5 goals 78-11
Over 2.5 goals 57-32
Over 3.5 goals 33-56
Yes on BTTS 53-36
Home wins 44 Draws 13 Away wins 32

Both games today are evening games so either make sure you get your bets on early or that you don't blow your available betting cash on the FA Cup Lottery this afternoon.


L'Orient v Reims @ 11/10 France Ligue One, 7pm Kick Off UK Time
The French Ligue has not been a league jam packed full of goals this season as games in this division average just 2.42 goals per game with over 2.5 goals hitting just 42%. That works in our favour though when we find a game where the stats point contrary to the low scoring expectancy for the league. When L'Orient play fellow bottom half placed sides there have been twenty nine goals in seven games. In the same spot Reims have played two more matches but those eleven games have seen a total of thirty three goals! When the sides met earlier this season Reims ran out 4-1 winners and the final meeting of last seasons campaign saw L'Orient win 3-1 last February in Reims. The home side have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six league outings whilst Reims have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last fourteen league games. At this juicy price of well over Even money on the over 2.5 goals we shall rely on the French to give us our first winner of the weekend.

Westerlo v Zulte-Waregem @ 7/10 Belgium Jupiler League, 7pm UK Kick Off Time
If our first game saw us go to unfamiliar places here we return to a well known and well liked League by us goal hunters, Belgium! The Jupiler League is one of the higher scoring European Leagues as it averages 2.82 goals per game and over 2.5 goals strike at a rate of 57%. Historically there has been an avalanche of goals when these sides meet as each of the last four games between the two sides have gone over 3.5 goals. Meetings in Westerlo have gone 5-3 to over 2.5 goals since December 2005 but all eight of those meetings have seen at least two goals. Westerlo have kept just one clean sheet at home all season and have just two shut outs to their name in their twenty three league games this campaign. Zulte have just one clean sheet on the road this season and given the fact they have conceded at least two goals in twelve of their last sixteen games it's hard to see them pitching a shut out here.


Well there we go chaps and chapessess' so let's look to hit 2-0 today and I will be back tomorrow with plenty more goal action.


All the best
Jimmy

Championship Sunday

Championship Sunday

The best Sunday of the year is here. I have my pizza and beer ready in the fridge and the day off from work on Monday!


Patriots @ Broncos +3 
Here we go then for what is surely the final time. Yes it's Denver hosting New England but we all know that this game will be won by the performance of the two quarterbacks. It may be a simplistic view but in truth the story is can the great Peyton Manning lead this defensive minded Denver team to victory. Brady is. 11-5 in the meetings of the these two future Hall of Fame QB's but it's been 2-2 in the Play Offs. Denver have the stronger defense and home advantage but will it be enough? You'd expect the Pats to run a similar quick hitting offensive game plan that they used last week against Kansas City. Tom Brady hardly had the ball in his hand before he rifled it out for small short yardage gains. The task for Denver is somehow to find a way to stop that and get pressure on Brady but it will be difficult. Denver seem committed to getting Manning under centre as opposed to any shotgun/pistol packages and they will want to run the ball as much as possible. All the money is for New England and the bookmakers have a huge liability on them going into the game. It is the 'square side' but I like the Patriots to take the game and I sense their under rated defense will put a lid on the offensive success for Manning.
Denver 13 New England 23


Cardinals @ Panthers -3 
This should be a barnstorming game between two of the lesser storied NFL franchises.   This line opened as high as Carolina -6 in some places before it was quickly brought back to -3.5 and it now sits at minus 3. Both head coaches came under criticism last week for their cautious approach to the Divisional Weekend games. Despite Carolina racing to a huge early lead Ron Rivera ensured his team went into their shell in the second half and Cam Newton made sure his coach knew he wasn't happy after the game! Arizona had some nervous moments in their game against Green Bay as Carson Palmer had quite frankly an awful game and if he performs like that this week then it should be a routine victory for the home team. These are two of my favourite teams to watch this season and I sense given the issues of last week either will want to lose because they were accused of being overly cautious. Cam Newton should be able to be very dynamic against this Cardinals offense and Palmer will take his shots against a weakened Panthers secondary. I lean to the Panthers on the handicap line but I LOVE the over 47.5 points.
Carolina 31 Arizona 24


Well there we have it, the season is nearly over bar one game (please don't say what about the Pro Bowl?). It's been a great year and I've really enjoyed writing each week and hope it's at least been of some use for you.


All the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Weekend

Here we go Team Goals and we have four games this weekend. Hopefully we will carry on where we left off last Saturday when we clean swept but you know me, I'd be ecstatic with a 3-1 week.  So far we stand as below:

Over 0.5 goals 84-1
Over 1.5 goals 74-11
Over 2.5 goals 55-30
Over 3.5 goals 32-53
Yes on BTTS 48-36
Home wins 43 Draws 11 Away wins 31

This week sees us return to the scene of the robbery last weekend as we go back to Division One in England for three of the games. This Division is averaging a healthy 2.81 goals per game and I think we have some decent opportunities there. On Sunday we head over the water to Germany to Ze Bundesliga where we are hopeful our selection maintains the League average of 2.82 goals per game.

Chesterfield v Millwall @ 10/11 English League One, 3pm Saturday
Goal crazy Chesterfield host promotion chasing Millwall and if is game replicates the Spireites recent matches then we should see a healthy smattering of goals. Their last three games have seen no fewer than seventeen goals whilst Millwall's last four games have all gone over 2.5 goals. In fact the Lions have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine away games and over the season their thirteen away days have seen a total of forty two goals fly in. With Chesterfield high on confidence in front of goal but not having kept a clean sheet since Halloween I really like this game to get us off to a winning start.

Crewe v Wigan @ 17/20 English League One, 3pm Saturday
Wigan are comfortably odds on for this trip to Crewe and given their 10-4-1 record against the bottom half teams this season that price can be justified. However, most of that record has been assembled on home soil as they are just 3-2-1 away in this spot and have conceded seven goals in those six games. Crewe are poor against the top half, as you'd expect from a side who sit bottom of the table, but they have managed to find the back of the net in five of six games at home in this spot. With Wigan conceding five straight games I can almost call a 2-1 or 3-1 away win for Wigan here.

Sheffield United v Swindon Town @ 8/11 English League One, 3pm Saturday
There have been plenty of goals when these sides have met in recent seasons. The last two games have seen 2-0 wins for United, including a two goal margin of victory last season at Bramall Lane. The home side are 4-1-3 when playing middle third placed teams and have scored in every single game. Swindon are 2-1-6 when facing off against the top third placed teams and have conceded in every single one of those matches. So we've established that the Blades will score at least once, can we rely on Swindon to find the back of the net? Well they've scored fifteen goals in their twelve away games and have scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Give me overs!

Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg @ 8/11 German Bundesliga, 230pm Saturday
They always save the best till last! The last sixteen meetings of these two sides have seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals has gone 12-4 in that stretch. Frankfurt are 1-2-6 against top half sides but they have at least scored twelve goals in those nine games. However to lose six games when you score a few yourself means you have to concede a lot of goals, twenty one in fact! Wolfsburg are a tidy 4-4-1 against the bottom half with twenty four total goals being scored, just over an average of 2.5 goals per game. Given this fixtures historical trends for goals I'm happy to finish the weekend off with this game as a very attractive betting option.


Well there we have it, let's hope for a 3-1 record!


All the best
Jimmy

NFL Divisional Weekend

After a pretty good betting performance last weekend where I went 3-1 it's another good looking set of games. Although I'm not feeling that confident there still looks to be some good propositions out there. Here are my brief thoughts on each of this weeks Divisional Weekend games..............


Chiefs @ Patriots -5 
The Chiefs have been an absolute ATM for their backers as they extended their winning run to twelve games in the shut out off Houston last week. We've seen the Patriots be susceptible in this spot on a Saturday evening in the Divisional Round before. However, can you seriously take Andy Reid to out coach Bill Belichick in Foxboro? I thought not! Houston got their miserable ground game going against KC last week so I see the Pats, still missing a lot of their skill players on offense, finding a way to run the ball and grind the clock. Give me some of the under forty three points.


Packers @ Cardinals -7
The Packers didn't cure all of their ills in that comeback win at Washington last Sunday but it won't have done them any harm. Green Bay return here to the scene of their crime just a few weeks ago when Arizona torched them! I have to believe that last week will have encouraged the Packers so if you are giving me Aaron Rodgers plus a touchdown against anyone in the Play Offs I will take it. It won't be for big stakes as they don't match up well against the Cardinals. However, despite my love for Bruce Arians and his team something deep inside of me tells me that their season will end in heartbreak. It's a gut feeling and I'm probably wrong but it's there inside of me! I will take Green Bay plus the points.


Seahawks @ Panthers -2
This is set to be the best game of the weekend in my opinion. Both teams have built from the ground up defensively to achieve their relative successes of recent years. They have evolved though into dangerous offensive units and I have a feeling this could turn into a shoot out. You could never accuse either quarterback of not taking a deep shot downfield so there could be many more points than this line of forty four. The Seahawks left a lot out on the field last Sunday and I reckon they will come out firing here. Seattle straight up and the overs  for me as I see Cam and Carolina being dumped out of the Play Offs in front of their own fans.


Steelers @ Broncos -7.5 
Denver host a very banged up Pittsburgh side here and the real question is just how fit will Big Ben be? If he can throw it more than ten yards then the Steelers have a chance of at least covering the spread. The loss of Antonio Brown is big for Pittsburgh and you know this well rested Broncos defense would cause problems to even a fully fit Steelers offense. Noodle Arm Manning should have a bit extra velocity in that right arm of his this week so I will take the home team but only straight up. I'm staying well clear of the points line as you know full well that one hit on Big Ben and it could be Goodnight Vienna!


All the best and enjoy the games!

Jimmy

Goal Rush Weekend

Hello Team Goals

We are back on it this weekend after a short break last weekend due to a lack of eligible games. It's been a bit of a similar story this week if I am completely truthful. The winter breaks across Europe are starting to come to an end though so I'm hopeful we will get plenty of games to pick from moving forward.

I've still managed to find three games tomorrow, all within the English Divisions, to keep you occupied and cheering for goalmouth action. So far this season we have done very well but there is always room for improvement, results are as below:

Over 0.5 goals 81-1
Over 1.5 goals 71-11
Over 2.5 goals 52-30
Over 3.5 goals 31-51
Yes on BTTS 47-35
Home wins 42 Draws 11 Away wins 29

Off we go then and let's look to go at least 2-1.


Rotherham v QPR @ 4/6 English Championship, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
A Championship relegation battle kicks us off this Saturday as the Millers host a QPR side who have at times this season been a low scoring outfit. However, their last six games have all seen Yes on BTTS cash and with Rotherham home games seeing forty one goals in thirteen games this season I sense goals are on the cards here. The first meeting of the sides ended 4-2 to QPR at Loftus Road back in August. Three clean sheets in a row at home for Rotherham may cause concern to some of you but those were achieved against Brighton (on a dreadful run), Bolton (a complete shambles) and Hull (notoriously tight and low scoring games). I'm happy to take the overs here and do your best to get our elusive 1.7 or 8/11 ish.

Shrewsbury v Barnsley @ 10/11 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
Our relegation special weekend turns its attention to Division One now as we head to Shrewsbury as they host their Yorkshire counterparts from Barnsley. I'm very surprised to see this game priced as close to Even money as it is but that's not our problem is it! The teams languish in 20th and 18th place respectively and when they face fellow bottom half placed sides the twenty five combined games have seen eighty two goals. Barnsley are 9-2 to over 2.5 goals when they hit the road and Shrewsbury have kept just three clean sheets in twenty five League games this season. Love the overs folks.

Wigan v Chesterfield @ 19/20 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time
The home side Wigan are chasing promotion whilst Chesterfield are looking to pull themselves away from the relegation battle they are involved in. Wigan won the first meeting of the teams this season 3-2 in Derbyshire back in September and will be very confident of gaining their eighth home win of the season. Chesterfield are a bit and miss 6-0-7 away from this season and they have conceded in ten straight games but they have also scored ten goals in their last two games. With Wigan scoring three goals in three of their last four League One matches I feel this price on the over 2.5 goals is great value.


Best of luck folks and I will be back with my NFL thoughts over the weekend!

Jimmy

NFL Wild Card Weekend

Let's begin this weeks column with a review of my season long bets, starting with the Divisional Title bets.

Buffalo Bills @ 13/2 finished third in their division with an 8-8 record. Had opportunities for a better record but in truth never close to challenging.

Baltimore Ravens & 13/8 also finished third as their season started like a train wreck and only got marginally better as their 5-11 season drew to its close.

Houston Texans @ 9/2 finally gave us a nice winner as they outfought Indianapolis for the crown to finish 9-7.

Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1 is the first of my five second place picks. You get nothing for coming second though and the Chiefs started off 1-5. To even have a chance of winning the title on the last day of the season was an achievement as they rattled off ten straight win. .

Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 saw me disappointed by the complete derailment of the Chip Kelly project as he paid the price for a 7-9 second placed season.

Green Bay Packers @ 4/9 paid the price for the Jordy Nelson injury as their offense stuttered and spluttered to a 10-6 season. Their failure on the final day to beat the Vikings for the crown makes me think their Super Bowl chances are minimal.

Atlanta Falcons @ 9/4 started off like a steam train before they ran out of gas. From a 5-0 start they crashed and burned to finish 8-8 but with Carolina beating everyone in sight they were never really in with a shot.

Seattle Seahawks @ 4/11 showed huge resilience to overcome a string of key injuries to battle through to the Play Offs. With Arizona playing at such an elite level that despite them finishing second they were never close.


Moving onto the Season Long under/over Win Total bets and thankfully we had much better success.  We went 4-1 but ironically it was my 'best bet' and only odds on shot that actually lost!

Washington Redskins @ 7/10 under 6.5 wins. Washington went 9-7 and took the NFL East crown as Jay Gruden rallied his beleaguered team to raise their level of performance. Washington certainly 'Liked That' season from quarterback Kirk Cousins but in this topsy turvy Division anything can happen next season.

Tennessee Titans @ 6/5 under 5.5 wins. There were signs of improvement under rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and at one point I was worried for this bet. However, they soon proved me correct as their performers fell off a cliff but moving forward there are green shoots of recovery to be seen in Nashville.

New Orleans Saints @ 6/5 under 8.5 wins. Never has a team had such a Jekyll & Hyde season like this Saints team. Much of it correlated with the inconsistent play from Drew Brees. A 7-9 season was a cover for performances that ranged from a 13-3 to a 3-13 team. Who knows what the future holds for that franchise!

Arizona Cardinals @ 11/8 over 8.5 wins. Our easiest cash of the season as the Bruce Arians revolution in Arizona went from strength to strength. They finished the regular season with a 13-3 record but they have sights on a much greater prize.

St Louis Rams @ 11/10 under 7.5 wins. Thankfully Mr '8-8' Jeff Fisher led his team to a 7-9 campaign. With a strong defense and a fantastic rookie running back it was the lack of a credible quarterback that hampered the Rams' opportunities for an even better season. Well that and Fisher!


A poor 1-7 Division title record was slightly softened by the 4-1 season win total performance. Incredibly it was Peyton Manning leading the Broncos, off of the bench I might add, to their win over San Diego that stopped a possible 2-6 record delivering stellar returns. Such are the fine margins!


Moving onto the Wild Card rounds, one of my favourite weekends of sport, and we have four stand alone games. I'm not sure how much betting opportunities there are but we will have a go at finding some value.


Chiefs @ Texans +3
The Chiefs are on an eleven game winning streak so surely you must be crazy to go against them in this spot. Maybe you are but I'm not afraid of being carted off to an asylum! Those eleven wins were obtained against just two sides with winning records and even one of those, against Landry Jones and Pittsburgh, was against a back up quarterback. The Texans will look to get this done on the back of their defense and with JJ Watt and co playing at an elite level I see the Chiefs struggling immensely here. Houston know this Saturday afternoon spot well of late and the home crowd will be pumped so give me the home dog straight up in this game.


Steelers @ Bengals +3
Another road favourite this Saturday as Pittsburgh head to Ohio to take on the AJ McCarron led Bengals. The point line has been set at forty six points here and that instantly attracted me to the under. Cincinnati have seemingly hit the ground running lately in games but then once their scripted plays for McCarron run out their offense stutters. The home team will need to run the ball and stay committed to the run as if this turns into a shoot out there is only one winner. I lean to the unders here but I can't trust this Steelers side laying points on the road.


Seahawks @ Vikings +5
Five weeks ago I cashed my biggest winning be of the season as Seattle demolished the Vikings in Minneapolis. That day I was lucky enough to get Seattle minus just two points as the Hawks demolished Mike Zimmer's team 38-7. This is different though and I'm not prepared to lay five points for any team on the road in a one off play off game. I am happy to add Seattle to any parlay bets but I'm stating clear of the handicap line. Minnesota may struggle to score points and even move the ball consistently so the under 40 points would be my lean in that market.


Packers @ Washington Pk
This is the day that the fans in Washington have been waiting for since RG3 went down in that play off game against Seattle a few years ago. The place will be bouncing, loud and inspiring for the home team. However, this league is all about match ups and Green Bay match up so well against the home team. It's been a great season for Washington but I'm happy to trust Rodgers here to get the job done. It'll probably be the only play off game they do win but take them here on the Pk line.


Best of luck this weekend folks and hopefully I will be back next week with a #GoalRush column.


Speak soon
Jimmy

NFL Week 17

The shambles that is the final week of the NFL season is upon us.

Lines all over the place, questionable motivation for teams and players who usually amaze us with their skills are stood on the sidelines with ear pieces in.

It is a good time of the season for betting in some respects as school is out for summer! In meaningless games it's often worth just backing points and cheering on every point scored as we know in all sport it takes more effort to play defense than play offense. The books know this but only possibly add on a couple of points or so which is as we all know less than a field goal.

Be careful with your wagers this week. Do you research, try and find the motivation angles for some teams and be lucky!


Jets @ Bills +2.5
The Jets need this game and Rex wants nothing more to shove this to Gang Green. They always say his Ra-Ra speeches get his players up for games but is this really the case? It's going to be cold, wet and probably snow. I lean to the Jets here as let's see some FitzMagic in upstate New York.


Buccaneers @ Panthers -11
Laying eleven points is a big ask for Carolina here as even if they do win comfortably they may leave that back door wide open. Yes they want to win and wrap up the number one seed and home field in front of their home fans but now the unbeaten run is over more importantly they want to stay healthy. A pass for me.


Patriots @ Dolphins +10
I love the unders here! Miami are offensively challenged and New England just want to win, take the number one seed and get the hell out of dodge. I expect to see New England run the ball at every opportunity so give me some of the under forty seven points.


Ravens @ Bengals -9.5
Divisional game. End of season. Nothing really for either team to play for but the Bengals would like a first round bye. You seriously want to bet this game? Thought not.


Saints @ Falcons -6
Will this be Drew Brees' last game as a Saint? More than likely it will be and in the Georgia Dome maybe we will have one final shoot out between these two old foes. Even with the point line set at fifty three it's overs or nothing for me.


Jaguars @ Texans -6
One and a half million different things need to happen to stop the Texans winning the division and handing it to Indianapolis but I imagine they will start their starters. Houston are not an elite team so I can't lay six points with them against this potentially high flying Jags offense. If news filters through from Indy early that results are going Houston's way then that Texans bench may soon be filled with some familiar faces.


Steelers @ Browns +10.5
Who will be under centre for Cleveland? Pittsburgh need this game like blood and hope that the Jets lose so Pittsburgh progress. I did warn a few weeks ago about the Steelers' apparent hubris. The weather is set for snow flurries so will that impede the high flying Pittsburgh passing game? I'd love to see Cleveland ruin the Steelers' play off hopes. Is it heart over head ruling me here though? Cleveland or pass at this big number.


Raiders @ Chiefs -7
It seems an eternity ago that Oakland beat San Diego on Christmas Eve and I've eaten my own body weight in chocolate since then. It's likely with nothing to play for that some of the Raiders' more chunkier units have followed my example. At any level of a touchdown or below I'm happy to take the Chiefs here. They are the better team and if they win and the Broncos lose then they will be crowned divisional champs.


Titans @ Colts -6
Good lord who knows what's happening in Indianapolis. I wouldn't touch this game with my worst enemies' money. FYI if Tennessee lose they get the number one draft pick but I'm sure that would have more effect on the game if it was to be played in Tennessee with the home fans actively cheering a loss!


Washington @ Cowboys -4
You have to believe that Washington will rest many of their starters a week before they host a play off game. It would be the sensible thing to do but does Jay Gruden strike you as a man who makes sensible decisions?


Lions @ Bears PK
Detroit smoked the 49ers last Sunday but I have a feeling that was their last hoorah this season. Outside of the cosy confines of the Silverdome they travel to a freezing cold Soldier Field where the home side want to end the season strongly.


Eagles @ Giants -3.5
Will Philadelphia get any lift from sacking Chip Kelly. Will New York play hard in what is more than likely going to be Tom Coughlin's final game. Who knows and in truth outside of the City of Angels and of the Big Apple who really cares. Over fifty one points is the only bet I'd ever consider making in this game.


Vikings @ Packers -3
Another game I'm not sure I want to take part in. At face value it's a no brainer back of the tried and tested Green Bay Packers. However, they haven't looked capable of pulling away from any team and if this is turned into a defensive battle there will only be one winner and they will be playing in purple.


Chargers @ Broncos -9
I lean to the under forty one points as I expect Denver to put this game in the hands of their defense. It could be worse for the Chargers as favourable winter weather means its only twenty degrees colder in Denver than when they took off from California. This could be San Diego's last game being San Diego (if that makes sense). Denver need to win to clinch and they should just about get it done but I ain't laying nine points with them.


Rams @ 49ers +3
This could end up 10-3 as two offensively challenged teams square off. Todd Gurley, the best offensive talent for either team, is  unlikely to play for the Rams and San Fran play stoutly against the run. Jeff Fisher needs this game to go 8-8 and kill my under 7.5 season win total bet on the Rams. Of course St Louis will win this game outright! I prefer the under 37.5 points though from a betting perspective as although I say these games usually go over this is Jeff Fisher. His life mission is to go 8-8. If you can't tell I hate Jeff Fisher. Maybe you should ignore my views on the Rams!


Seahawks @ Cardinals -6
Seattle need to sort out their offensive line and they need to sort it out quickly else their post season will be cut vert very short. Arizona need a win here and a Carolina loss to secure the number one seed and home field throughout the play offs. Arizona will have a week off no matter what so I expect them to continue to play to maintain their rhythm whereas you may see the Hawks be sensible with their guys. Arizona minus the points for me and probably an under forty seven bet will cash nicely given both teams wish to get out unscathed.



I feared the worst last week and I was right as I had my worst week of the season going 1-4 to take my season long record to 45-35. At this stage of the season it's so hard to pick five games each week and I bet the current leader is pleased he is four and a half points clear. Rounding Again is 57-20-3 a truly incredible return and only the worst possible luck will see them from not taking home the first prize. I salute you!

#SuperContest Week 17 Picks
Bears -1
Cardinals -6.5
Chiefs -6.5
Giants -3
Jets -3
Packers -3


My least confident five SuperContest picks of the year but five a week is the rule!


Best of luck everybody with all your bets and I hope my little round ups have at least given a little bit of assistance over the course of the regular season.

I shall be back next week with play off thoughts, a round up of my eight Divisional Selections and my five under/over season long win total bets.


All the best
Jimmy

The Goal Rush is back!

Well hello there 'Team Goals'

We are back for 2016 and hopefully these defences have feasted on more turkey and Cadburys Roses than me. Actually that's not possible but you know what I mean!

So far this season our record stands as per below:

Over 0.5 goals 79-1
Over 1.5 goals 69-11
Over 2.5 goals 51-29
Over 3.5 goals 30-50
Yes on BTTS 47-33
Home wins 41 Draws 11 Away wins 28

The much reduced European programme that we see at this time of the year obviously limits the games for us to participate in. However, there were several games that met the criteria and we appear to have found two solid selections at good prices for this Saturday.


Crewe Alexandra v Coventry City @ 10/11 English Division One, 3pm Kick Off UK Time

These sides have met seven times in League One action since September 2012 and the last six of those have seen goals a plenty. Each of those six meetings have seen a Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. Coventry won 3-2 when the sides met back in August and Crewe have recently gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS in their last six league matches. The bookmakers have promotion chasing Coventry quite rightly priced as odds on favourites for this game but Crewe have scored in all but two of their twelve home matches so far this campaign. At a price of approaching Even money I see the over 2.5 goals as a very strong play here to get our 2016 Goal Rush off to a winning start.



Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Ross County @ 21/20 Scottish Premiership, 3pm Kick Off UK Time

The best available price for the over 2.5 goals opened at Even money before drifting out to 21/20 and I can't explain why.  Inverness won 2-1 when the teams met for the first time this season in Ross-shire back in October. That result continued a pattern of scoring when the teams collide as Yes on BTTS has gone 7-1 in all meetings of the sides since New Years Day 2014. In fact the very nature of the structure of Scottish Football encourages teams to meet on many more occasions than most European leagues. Thus these trends should be taken more seriously as a 7-1 record such as this is built up in two years rather than say four years within the English structure. Inverness are on an 8-0 Yes on BTTS run in the league, with over 2.5 goals going 7-1 and over 3.5 goals hitting 5-3. Given those recent trends and the trends historically when these sides meet I am perplexed as to how this price is drifting higher than its opening price. Give me some of the over 2.5 goals.



Well there we go for this week and next week hopefully there may be some more games on offer as the rest of Europe begin to wake from their Christmas slumber.

All the best and I shall be back Sunday morning for a much reduced NFL round up for what will be as always a strange final week of regular season gridiron action.

Take care and let's make the bookmakers pay in 2016
Jimmy

New Years Day Halftime Report

Happy New Year Folks


Half Time Report (fuelled by Nescafé Azera)

Well folks we are now exactly half way through what can only be described as the most entertaining and unpredictable Premiership season in living memory. So what have we learned, what are the trends and where the heck can we make money in the next few weeks and months?

Now please feel free to ignore anything I say below as let's not forget before the season I was heard to say:

"I think Chelsea will probably grind it out and look the best option to take the title."
" Newcastle at 7/2 look a decent proposition to finish in the top half of the table."
"Leicester at 3/10 to finish in the bottom half looks a staggeringly good price. 30% interest here we come."

Those statements have all obviously been proved incorrect and I'm sure people will remind me about them for a long while on that kind community that is Twitter.

The key though to constant evolution and progression with your betting is not to stick to those original thoughts like a stubborn mule. Sometimes you will be correct to stick to your guns but only if you constantly reassess and re-evaluate your betting thoughts. I could write a column as long as my eighty five odd thousand word book at this half time stage but oh my lord that would bore you. Instead I have picked out one statistic or trend for each team so far this season that strikes a chord with me at this half way stage. Whether the pattern will continue moving forward is unknown but certainly they all have some relevance. Many of these should even come into our thought process for this weekends fixtures.

So in current league table order let's have a look.


Arsenal - Despite being top of the league they are only 6-1-3 against bottom half sides and have scored just fifteen goals in those ten matches.

Leicester City - The surprise packages have won eleven games so far this campaign but eight of those victories have been by just a single goal.

Manchester City - Have a huge top/bottom half split as City are 9-1-0 versus the bottom half and only 2-2-5 when playing fellow top half opponents.

Tottenham Hotspur - Best defensive record in the league this season and on just one occasion have they conceded more than once away from home.

Crystal Palace - Incredibly Palace have only conceded more than once in a game on just two occasions in the opening nineteen matches.

Manchester United - For a club who is apparently in turmoil their ten clean sheets in nineteen games is not a bad defensive return.

Liverpool - Always well backed punters need to be aware that they have scored more than once in just four of nineteen matches. Not good for a team who are regularly favoured by a full goal or even more.

West Ham United - The Hammers are 1-5-0 in their last six games and are unbeaten in the last seven at Upton Park.

Watford - When taking on opposition from the top seven Watford really struggle as they are only 1-0-6 in that spot and 7-5-0 against all other sides in the league.

Stoke City - After an indifferent start to the season Stoke have now kept eight clean sheets in their last twelve matches.

Everton - The Toffees are horrendous against the top half of the table as they are 0-5-5 in that spot.

Southampton - A record of 1-3-6 against the top half suggests their best work is done against the strugglers and that victory was only earned on Boxing Day v Arsenal.

West Bromwich Albion - Just nineteen goals in the nine matches the Baggies have played against fellow bottom half foes with an impressive five clean sheets in those games.

Chelsea - Failed to win two games in a row this season and the current three match unbeaten run is their best run of the current campaign.

Norwich City - The Canaries have kept just two clean sheets in nineteen games and one of those was against Aston Villa so does that even count?

Bournemouth - Overall this season under 2.5 goals is 10-9 in their games. However that is split into a 6-3 home and 4-6 away record.

Swansea City - Just eight total goals in Swansea's last six games and in those games they have failed to score more than once in a match.

Newcastle - The Magpies have failed to score in nine of their nineteen Premiership games this season and in their last three games they scored just one goal. Those games were against Aston Villa, Everton and West Brom whose defences have combined to concede a total of eight two goals this season.

Sunderland - Seven times this season Sunderland have conceded three or more goals in a single game. At the other end the Mackems have only scored nineteen goals themselves.

Aston Villa - After winning on opening day they have gone eighteen games without a win. They do however score more goals against the top half than against the bottom half, nine as opposed to just six against their relegation competition.



Well I hope that is of at least some use to you moving forward and I shall be back later with the first Goal Rush column of 2016.


All the best
Jimmy