End of season #GoalRush Round Up
We are getting to the nervy stage of the season where games become less predictable. As results for the column have been very poor of late I've taken the decision to retire the column for the season to undertake further research.
Please see below for the season long record and although the past six weeks have been rough I think it's been a solid and decent first season for the column.
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 114-5
Over 1.5 goals 98-21
Over 2.5 goals 66-53
Over 3.5 goals 39-80
Yes on BTTS 67-52
Home wins 56 Draws 23 Away wins 40
I would be lying if I said it had been a hard decision to pull the column for the final few weeks of the season as it's been a really easy one. At the beginning of the day on 31st January we stood at a fantastic 58-33 to over 2.5 goals. Fast forward six weeks and we've gone on an 8-20 run and although I would have accepted our season long record at the beginning of the campaign this recent form is something I need to address.
Each week the number of games that meets the criteria has reduced and the overall performance of those selections has also declined. This week for example only nine games across the whole of Europe hit the criteria. Two were omitted on the basis of price and the other seven potential bets went 1-6. Earlier in the season when we were successful we were often getting twenty five hit the criteria and around 50% of total possible bets hitting the over.
Has the recent run just been a retracement to the mean? I think I've discovered something but I think it's only fair that I now don't post any further selections until I've tried to iron out some of the issues that's led to our poor run.
The column will be back next season for sure as its too much fun not to research and interact with you good folks on. In what form and on what platform it'll be available on I'm not sure yet but I will keep you fully briefed!
Yours in goals
Jimmy
Sunday, 20 March 2016
Thursday, 17 March 2016
Weekend Goal Rush
Here we are again at the weekend people and I'm pleased to say we steadied the ship with a 2-2 showing last Saturday/Sunday. It appears that goals are doing up all over Europe as the volume of games that qualify for our consideration is dwindling week by week. However, I've still managed to piece together three games that look spot on to deliver the goods but first let's take a peek at our results so far this campaign:
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 111-5
Over 1.5 goals 96-20
Over 2.5 goals 66-50
Over 3.5 goals 39-77
Yes on BTTS 66-50
Home wins 56 Draws 22 Away wins 38
Everton v Arsenal @8/11 English Premier League, 1245pm UK Kick Off Saturday
Arsenal have their season hopes hanging by a thread as they make the trip to Goodison Park this Saturday for the EPL's lunchtime kick off. The home team have struggled on their own patch this season but there has been plenty of goalmouth action with over 2.5 goals going 10-5. On the road Arsenal have also been full of goals as they are 9-6 to the over and this will be a fast and open game and an early goal should ignite this encounter. I love the overs on the goal line though as Arsenal can't defend at the moment whilst the home team look the ideal fodder for Arsenal's slick passing moves.
Roma v Inter @ 19/20 Italian Serie A, 745pm UK Kick Off Saturday
These sides have met eighteen times since April 2007 with the over 2.5 goals going 11-7 in that run. Both sides have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks as both of their last six games in league action have gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Roma are 9-5 to over 2.5 goals at the home whilst Inter's fourteen away games have seen thirty four total goals. Give me the overs to hit here in this new Serie A that sees plenty of goals.
Sion v Basel @ 4/5 Swiss Super League, 3pm Sunday
The Swiss League is averaging 3.08 goals per game so far this season so it's a surprise to see this game priced at such an attractive price. Basel have gone a total 18-5 to the over 2.5 goals this season and on the road they are a strong 8-3 away from home to the over. There have been at least two goals in twenty three of Basel's twenty four league matches this season. The risk/reward looks stacked very much to the reward side here so I'm happy to take overs in this game to top the weekend off.
All the best and speak soon
Jimmy
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 111-5
Over 1.5 goals 96-20
Over 2.5 goals 66-50
Over 3.5 goals 39-77
Yes on BTTS 66-50
Home wins 56 Draws 22 Away wins 38
Everton v Arsenal @8/11 English Premier League, 1245pm UK Kick Off Saturday
Arsenal have their season hopes hanging by a thread as they make the trip to Goodison Park this Saturday for the EPL's lunchtime kick off. The home team have struggled on their own patch this season but there has been plenty of goalmouth action with over 2.5 goals going 10-5. On the road Arsenal have also been full of goals as they are 9-6 to the over and this will be a fast and open game and an early goal should ignite this encounter. I love the overs on the goal line though as Arsenal can't defend at the moment whilst the home team look the ideal fodder for Arsenal's slick passing moves.
Roma v Inter @ 19/20 Italian Serie A, 745pm UK Kick Off Saturday
These sides have met eighteen times since April 2007 with the over 2.5 goals going 11-7 in that run. Both sides have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks as both of their last six games in league action have gone 5-1 to Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Roma are 9-5 to over 2.5 goals at the home whilst Inter's fourteen away games have seen thirty four total goals. Give me the overs to hit here in this new Serie A that sees plenty of goals.
Sion v Basel @ 4/5 Swiss Super League, 3pm Sunday
The Swiss League is averaging 3.08 goals per game so far this season so it's a surprise to see this game priced at such an attractive price. Basel have gone a total 18-5 to the over 2.5 goals this season and on the road they are a strong 8-3 away from home to the over. There have been at least two goals in twenty three of Basel's twenty four league matches this season. The risk/reward looks stacked very much to the reward side here so I'm happy to take overs in this game to top the weekend off.
All the best and speak soon
Jimmy
Thursday, 10 March 2016
Weekend Goal Rush
Last weekend saw a horrific 0-4 weekend for us but we should try and keep this all in perspective. If you'd have offered me this record of 64-48 at the beginning of the season then I would probably have taken it. Sadly though recent weeks have really put a dent into both profits and confidence. I have not been doing anything differently in terms of research or analysis and I think, he says fingers crossed, last week was just a blip. I have taken some solace from the fact that we had nineteen qualifying games to select from last weekend and overall those games went 4-15 to overs. Some comfort but not that much help to our depleted betting banks. Please see below for the up to date stats:
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 107-5
Over 1.5 goals 94-18
Over 2.5 goals 64-48
Over 3.5 goals 37-75
Yes on BTTS 65-47
Home wins 52 Draws 22 Away wins 38
It's been a long week and I'm very tired so the thought of writing out all of my thoughts does not appeal to me so I am just giving you the games......naked.....with no write up! Maybe a change of presentation will help kickstart some better results.
Ujpest v Diosgyor (price not published yet but will be comfortably over the 7/10 target we set), Hungarian OTP Bank Liga, 230pm Saturday kick off
Toulouse v Bordeaux @ 6/5 French Ligue One, 7pm Saturday kick off
Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg @ 3/4 German Bundesliga, 230 pm Sunday kick off
Genk v Oostende @ 3/4 Belgian Pro League, 5pm Sunday kick off
All the best folks, enjoy the weekend and be lucky.
Jimmy
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 107-5
Over 1.5 goals 94-18
Over 2.5 goals 64-48
Over 3.5 goals 37-75
Yes on BTTS 65-47
Home wins 52 Draws 22 Away wins 38
It's been a long week and I'm very tired so the thought of writing out all of my thoughts does not appeal to me so I am just giving you the games......naked.....with no write up! Maybe a change of presentation will help kickstart some better results.
Ujpest v Diosgyor (price not published yet but will be comfortably over the 7/10 target we set), Hungarian OTP Bank Liga, 230pm Saturday kick off
Toulouse v Bordeaux @ 6/5 French Ligue One, 7pm Saturday kick off
Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg @ 3/4 German Bundesliga, 230 pm Sunday kick off
Genk v Oostende @ 3/4 Belgian Pro League, 5pm Sunday kick off
All the best folks, enjoy the weekend and be lucky.
Jimmy
Saturday, 5 March 2016
Sunday Goal Rush
Hello Team
Well yesterday was a disappointment. My strongest thoughts were in the Oldham v Swindon and that was the game that was postponed! At 430pm with no goals in either of the games I think we were already resigned to our fate so in the end a 0-1 and 1-1 was not the worst outcome on our overall selection process.
The season long record is obviously still good but we have to be disappointed with the recent results. I cannot put my finger on the reasons for a poorer recent performance and am putting this down to natural variance as the method of game selection and analysis has not changed. Obviously I am keeping a close eye on how things progress as I'm wary of letting things slide further but at present we will keep going with our tried and tested methods. Anyway please see below for the updated season long record and our two Sunday picks:
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 106-4
Over 1.5 goals 94-16
Over 2.5 goals 64-46
Over 3.5 goals 37-73
Yes on BTTS 65-45
Home wins 52 Draws 21 Away wins 37
Mainz 05 v Darmstadt @ Evens German Bundesliga, 230pm UK Kick Off Time
It was a 3-2 win for Mainz when the sides met earlier this season so neither side will fear the other going into this game. When Mainz take on bottom third placed sides there has been goals aplenty as their eight games in this spot have seen thirty one goals. Darmstadt are dreadful in this spot as they are 0-2-7 against top third placed sides and they have conceded twenty three goals in those nine games. They have at least scored eight goals in those matches and recently away from home they have been in fine goal scoring form. They've scored nine goals in their last five away games including finding the back of the net away at Bayern Munich. I think we can trust Darmstadt to score at least once and give the fact they've conceded twice or more in seven of their last nine games give me the overs to hit here!
Vitoria Setubal v Moreirense @ 11/10 Portugese Primeira Liga, 4pm UK Kick Off Time
Mid table Vitoria Setubal host relegation threatened Moreirense for our final game of the Goal Rush weekend. Setubal won 2-0 when the sides met back in October but prior to that all of the four meetings of the teams since January 2013 have gone over 2.5 goals. Setubal scored in all of those games and have recorded 2-1 and 5-0 wins on home soil. Games involving Setubal and bottom half placed teams have seen forty one goals in just twelve games and despite their lowly league position Moreirense are averaging over a goal per game in this same spot. In fact with the visitors scoring in twelve straight league games and Yes on BTTS going 8-1 in their last nine games I see this as a good solid selection for us. Setubal have conceded in twelve straight league games and have kept just two clean sheets at home all season. Lets take the over 2.5 goals in this one to finish off our weekend!
All the best folks
Jimmy
Well yesterday was a disappointment. My strongest thoughts were in the Oldham v Swindon and that was the game that was postponed! At 430pm with no goals in either of the games I think we were already resigned to our fate so in the end a 0-1 and 1-1 was not the worst outcome on our overall selection process.
The season long record is obviously still good but we have to be disappointed with the recent results. I cannot put my finger on the reasons for a poorer recent performance and am putting this down to natural variance as the method of game selection and analysis has not changed. Obviously I am keeping a close eye on how things progress as I'm wary of letting things slide further but at present we will keep going with our tried and tested methods. Anyway please see below for the updated season long record and our two Sunday picks:
Season Long Record
Over 0.5 goals 106-4
Over 1.5 goals 94-16
Over 2.5 goals 64-46
Over 3.5 goals 37-73
Yes on BTTS 65-45
Home wins 52 Draws 21 Away wins 37
Mainz 05 v Darmstadt @ Evens German Bundesliga, 230pm UK Kick Off Time
It was a 3-2 win for Mainz when the sides met earlier this season so neither side will fear the other going into this game. When Mainz take on bottom third placed sides there has been goals aplenty as their eight games in this spot have seen thirty one goals. Darmstadt are dreadful in this spot as they are 0-2-7 against top third placed sides and they have conceded twenty three goals in those nine games. They have at least scored eight goals in those matches and recently away from home they have been in fine goal scoring form. They've scored nine goals in their last five away games including finding the back of the net away at Bayern Munich. I think we can trust Darmstadt to score at least once and give the fact they've conceded twice or more in seven of their last nine games give me the overs to hit here!
Vitoria Setubal v Moreirense @ 11/10 Portugese Primeira Liga, 4pm UK Kick Off Time
Mid table Vitoria Setubal host relegation threatened Moreirense for our final game of the Goal Rush weekend. Setubal won 2-0 when the sides met back in October but prior to that all of the four meetings of the teams since January 2013 have gone over 2.5 goals. Setubal scored in all of those games and have recorded 2-1 and 5-0 wins on home soil. Games involving Setubal and bottom half placed teams have seen forty one goals in just twelve games and despite their lowly league position Moreirense are averaging over a goal per game in this same spot. In fact with the visitors scoring in twelve straight league games and Yes on BTTS going 8-1 in their last nine games I see this as a good solid selection for us. Setubal have conceded in twelve straight league games and have kept just two clean sheets at home all season. Lets take the over 2.5 goals in this one to finish off our weekend!
All the best folks
Jimmy
Friday, 4 March 2016
Goal Rush Saturday
A poor 1-3 weekend last time out but this weekend we have a double bubble with both a Saturday and Sunday column as we look to hit back. So far this campaign our results are as below:
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 104-1
Over 1.5 goals 93-15
Over 2.5 goals 64-44
Over 3.5 goals 37-71
Yes on BTTS 64-44
Home wins 52 Draws 20 Away wins 36
All three games this Saturday are in English Division One with 3pm kick offs and this league averages 2.68 goals per game.
Oldham v Swindon @ Evens
Oldham are deep in the relegation mire and the trends suggest that they will need to score at least two goals here to have any chance of gaining three points. They did win 2-1 in Swindon back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and both of last seasons games also saw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. The teams' combined twenty four games in this spot (bottom third v mid third placed teams) have seen a total of eighty one goals. Give me the overs!
Southend v Chesterfield @ 19/20
Eight placed and promotion hunting Southend host a Chesterfield side who are nervously looking over their shoulder at the relegation places. Chesterfield won the first meeting of the sides 3-0 earlier this season and this fixture has been littered with goals over the past few years. Over 2.5 goals has hit 7-1 since October 2010 and despite their lowly league position Chesterfield have only failed to score in three of thirteen matches against sides in the top third. I will trust the Spireites to find the net at least once in this game and help us cash on the over 2.5 goal line.
Wigan v Peterborough @ 4/5
Championship chasers Wigan host a Peterborough side who have lost five on the bounce in league action. The Latics won 3-2 away at London Road back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and we look set for more goals here. The teams' combined twenty five games in this spot (top third versus mid third placed sides) have seen a total of eighty one goals. In fact Peterborough's seventeen away matches this season have seen fifty six total goals and nothing tells me that this game will be any different. Hit this over folks at what looks a very good price!
I welcome feedback from you all. Do you want more analysis on the games or would you in fact just like the games with no write up? Unlike my ex girlfriend I am eager and willing to please so just let me know.
Be lucky, all the best and I shall be back Sunday morning with two games from somewhere across Europe of destinations still to be disclosed.........
Jimmy
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 104-1
Over 1.5 goals 93-15
Over 2.5 goals 64-44
Over 3.5 goals 37-71
Yes on BTTS 64-44
Home wins 52 Draws 20 Away wins 36
All three games this Saturday are in English Division One with 3pm kick offs and this league averages 2.68 goals per game.
Oldham v Swindon @ Evens
Oldham are deep in the relegation mire and the trends suggest that they will need to score at least two goals here to have any chance of gaining three points. They did win 2-1 in Swindon back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and both of last seasons games also saw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bet cash. The teams' combined twenty four games in this spot (bottom third v mid third placed teams) have seen a total of eighty one goals. Give me the overs!
Southend v Chesterfield @ 19/20
Eight placed and promotion hunting Southend host a Chesterfield side who are nervously looking over their shoulder at the relegation places. Chesterfield won the first meeting of the sides 3-0 earlier this season and this fixture has been littered with goals over the past few years. Over 2.5 goals has hit 7-1 since October 2010 and despite their lowly league position Chesterfield have only failed to score in three of thirteen matches against sides in the top third. I will trust the Spireites to find the net at least once in this game and help us cash on the over 2.5 goal line.
Wigan v Peterborough @ 4/5
Championship chasers Wigan host a Peterborough side who have lost five on the bounce in league action. The Latics won 3-2 away at London Road back in October when the sides met for the first time this season and we look set for more goals here. The teams' combined twenty five games in this spot (top third versus mid third placed sides) have seen a total of eighty one goals. In fact Peterborough's seventeen away matches this season have seen fifty six total goals and nothing tells me that this game will be any different. Hit this over folks at what looks a very good price!
I welcome feedback from you all. Do you want more analysis on the games or would you in fact just like the games with no write up? Unlike my ex girlfriend I am eager and willing to please so just let me know.
Be lucky, all the best and I shall be back Sunday morning with two games from somewhere across Europe of destinations still to be disclosed.........
Jimmy
Thursday, 25 February 2016
Weekend Goal Rush
Hello folks
Hope we are all well but I have no time for niceties this week. Nice guys finish last and in recent weeks we've been last. It's time to get nasty!
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 101-3 97.11%
Over 1.5 goals 91-13 87.5%
Over 2.5 goals 63-41 60.58%
Over 3.5 goals 37-67 35.58%
Yes on BTTS 63-41 60.58%
Home wins 51 Draws 19 Away wins 34
As the minimum price we are looking for is 1.7 (although a couple of early games this season were a tad lower than that) I have taken a conservative average of 1.78 for winning bets. That leaves us with a profit of 8.14 points for the over 2.5 goals which equates to an ROI of 7.82% which is a very respectable level of return.
Right let's hope we have some bad boy behaviour in terms of sendings off and penalties to help us get back on the right track. Four games, all with different kick off times which gives us plenty of extended entertainment.
Trabzonspor v Osmanlispor @ 21/20 Turkish Super Lig, 5pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday
Dipping into the Turkish league has proved successful of late for us and here is the first of two such journeys this GoalRush weekend. When the teams faced off for the first time this season it was Osmanlispor who emerged 3-1 victors back in September. These sides both sit mid table in ninth and eight placed respectively and games against similar opposition have yielded a total of thirty four goals in a combined eleven games. Over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 in Trabzonspor's last eight league games whilst Osmanlispor have scored three or more goals in three of their last four league outings. All of this points to a number of goals being scored in this game so let's hope the number is three or more!
Troyes v L'Orient @ 7/10 French Ligue 1, 7pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday
For the late game this Saturday we head to our dear neighbours France and Ligue One is only averaging 2.43 goals this season so at first glance this price may look a little short. When the sides met back in November though it was L'Orient who ran out convincing 4-1 winners. Although the sides have not met for a few seasons both of the match ups back in the 2012-13 season went over 3.5 goals. Troyes have failed to win at home this season as their 0-6-7 home record has seen them score just eight goals. However, when L'Orient play sides in the bottom third of the table there have
been no fewer than thirty eight total goals scored. The chances of the away side keeping a clean sheet look remote and given the fact that Troyes have scored two or more goals three of their last seven and L'Orient have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last eleven games I sense this an excellent chance for a high scoring game.
Sivaspor v Antalyaspor @ 4/5 Turkish Super Lig, 1130am Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Bottom placed Sivaspor host a comfortably placed mid table Antalyaspor as they look for their third win on home soil this season. Despite being rooted at the foot of the table the home side are 2-6-2 when entertaining sides this campaign so they are no push over on home soil. Recent meetings of the sides have been jam packed full of goals as the last twelve meetings have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals hitting at 8-4 and Yes on BTTS going 9-3. It was one apiece earlier in the season when the teams met so I'm happy to side with their being at least one further goal and us cashing an over 2.5 ticket this Sunday lunchtime.
Udinese v Hellas Verona @ 21/20 Italian Serie A, 2pm Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Relegation threatened Udinese host rock bottom Hellas Verona this Sunday in a critical game in the Serie A survival battle. These teams are nineteenth and twentieth in the form table in this spot of playing fellow bottom third opposition and they've kept only a combined three clean sheets in those eighteen matches. Serie A is averaging 2.59 goals so far this season but recent matches between the sides have seen there share of goals as the last five league games have seen fourteen total goals and just one clean sheet. Verona have won their last two trips to this stadium, 2-1 last season and 3-1 in 2013-14, so they will no fear making this journey and they know time is beginning to run out for them as they lie seven points clear of safety. This is a winnable game for them and I expect it to be open as with Udidense keeping one clean sheet in nine and Verona one clean sheet in fifteen neither side will trust their defence!
All the best
Jimmy
Hope we are all well but I have no time for niceties this week. Nice guys finish last and in recent weeks we've been last. It's time to get nasty!
Season long record
Over 0.5 goals 101-3 97.11%
Over 1.5 goals 91-13 87.5%
Over 2.5 goals 63-41 60.58%
Over 3.5 goals 37-67 35.58%
Yes on BTTS 63-41 60.58%
Home wins 51 Draws 19 Away wins 34
As the minimum price we are looking for is 1.7 (although a couple of early games this season were a tad lower than that) I have taken a conservative average of 1.78 for winning bets. That leaves us with a profit of 8.14 points for the over 2.5 goals which equates to an ROI of 7.82% which is a very respectable level of return.
Right let's hope we have some bad boy behaviour in terms of sendings off and penalties to help us get back on the right track. Four games, all with different kick off times which gives us plenty of extended entertainment.
Trabzonspor v Osmanlispor @ 21/20 Turkish Super Lig, 5pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday
Dipping into the Turkish league has proved successful of late for us and here is the first of two such journeys this GoalRush weekend. When the teams faced off for the first time this season it was Osmanlispor who emerged 3-1 victors back in September. These sides both sit mid table in ninth and eight placed respectively and games against similar opposition have yielded a total of thirty four goals in a combined eleven games. Over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 in Trabzonspor's last eight league games whilst Osmanlispor have scored three or more goals in three of their last four league outings. All of this points to a number of goals being scored in this game so let's hope the number is three or more!
Troyes v L'Orient @ 7/10 French Ligue 1, 7pm Kick Off UK Time Saturday
For the late game this Saturday we head to our dear neighbours France and Ligue One is only averaging 2.43 goals this season so at first glance this price may look a little short. When the sides met back in November though it was L'Orient who ran out convincing 4-1 winners. Although the sides have not met for a few seasons both of the match ups back in the 2012-13 season went over 3.5 goals. Troyes have failed to win at home this season as their 0-6-7 home record has seen them score just eight goals. However, when L'Orient play sides in the bottom third of the table there have
been no fewer than thirty eight total goals scored. The chances of the away side keeping a clean sheet look remote and given the fact that Troyes have scored two or more goals three of their last seven and L'Orient have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last eleven games I sense this an excellent chance for a high scoring game.
Sivaspor v Antalyaspor @ 4/5 Turkish Super Lig, 1130am Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Bottom placed Sivaspor host a comfortably placed mid table Antalyaspor as they look for their third win on home soil this season. Despite being rooted at the foot of the table the home side are 2-6-2 when entertaining sides this campaign so they are no push over on home soil. Recent meetings of the sides have been jam packed full of goals as the last twelve meetings have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals hitting at 8-4 and Yes on BTTS going 9-3. It was one apiece earlier in the season when the teams met so I'm happy to side with their being at least one further goal and us cashing an over 2.5 ticket this Sunday lunchtime.
Udinese v Hellas Verona @ 21/20 Italian Serie A, 2pm Kick Off UK Time Sunday
Relegation threatened Udinese host rock bottom Hellas Verona this Sunday in a critical game in the Serie A survival battle. These teams are nineteenth and twentieth in the form table in this spot of playing fellow bottom third opposition and they've kept only a combined three clean sheets in those eighteen matches. Serie A is averaging 2.59 goals so far this season but recent matches between the sides have seen there share of goals as the last five league games have seen fourteen total goals and just one clean sheet. Verona have won their last two trips to this stadium, 2-1 last season and 3-1 in 2013-14, so they will no fear making this journey and they know time is beginning to run out for them as they lie seven points clear of safety. This is a winnable game for them and I expect it to be open as with Udidense keeping one clean sheet in nine and Verona one clean sheet in fifteen neither side will trust their defence!
All the best
Jimmy
Thursday, 18 February 2016
Weekend Goal Rush
A 2-2 last weekend and after taking an early lead we were forced to come back with a late German equaliser to ensure we came out with a 50:50 record and a small loss. A rare 0-0 spoiled my Saturday last weekend as although I don't take too kindly to losing bets I hate being as wrong as we were in Poland! I did get a couple of nice messages from chaps who are using this column to pick games that are to go over 3.5 goals. I've learnt that my work is being looked at by a variety of different folk at all staking levels and from all angles, from over 0.5 goals to over 3.5 goals and Yes on BTTS bets. My main priority is to select games to hit over 2.5 goals but as I keep stressing this is an evolving study. In the summer I plan to go back through, as I didn't keep the records to begin with, to see if there is any correlation between the Home win/Away win/Draw and Yes on BTTS. If so, have we found a way to profit from the Team A to win and BTTS type bets that are now readily available at all bookmakers. Let's see how we stack up season long and onto the weekend.
Stats to date are:
Over 0.5 goals 99-2
Over 1.5 goals 89-12
Over 2.5 goals 62-39
Over 3.5 goals 37-64
Yes on BTTS 61-40
Home wins 50 Draws 17 Away wins 34
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg @ 5/6 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time
For the first game this weekend we head off to one of our favourite haunts, the Bundesliga. This game looks primed to add to the season long league average of 2.79 goals as both teams have seen plenty of goals in their games so far this season. Ironically the 0-0 draw between them back in September has probably helped us gain a tidy price. Prior to that goalless draw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals had cashed in four straight meetings. Recent league outings for both sides have seen them struggle to keep it clean defensively. Frankfurt have conceded in all but one home game so far this season and their opposition have scored twenty goals in Frankfurt's last nine league games. Hamburg have been no tidier at the back as Yes on BTTS has gone 10-1 in their last eleven games so it's hard to put a case forward for either team to keep a clean sheet. As its hard, I won't bother! Give me over 2.5 goals here to get us off to a cracking start to the weekend.
Antalyaspor v Rizespor @ 20/23 Turkish Super Lig, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
The Turkish Super Lig has been quite good to us so far this season as this league which is not always considered to be a flowing and open one has seen plenty of goals. The average goals per game currently sits at 2.7 and I really like this game to get us off to a good start this Saturday. When the sides met back in September it was Rizespor who ran out 5-1 winners in a result that belies the fact that they lie just one place above, thirteenth, Antalyaspor. It is a small sample size but all three meetings of the sides since October 2013 have all seen Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bets cash. Antalyaspor have kept just one clean sheet in thirteen home games whilst Rizespor have seen each of their last five league matches cash Yes on BTTS tickets. Let's take some of the over in what should be an open and entertaining game.
Vitoria Setubal v Nacional @ 23/20 Portugese Primeira Liga, Saturday 6pm UK Kick Off Time
Having ran my complicated #GoalRush algorithm or alternatively sat there working my games out with pen and paper (you decide which I do) I was amazed to see this priced odds against. There have been at least two goals scored in thirteen of the last fourteen head to head meetings of the sides. Setubal home games have gone 7-4 to over 2.5 goals this season and Nacional have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last ten league outings. On that basis we may not need the away side to score to cash an over 2.5 bet. Fear not though as the leaky Setubal backline has not kept a clean sheet I any of their last ten league matches. At this juicy market price of odds against let's take a nice chunk of the overs for our final bet for the Saturday #GoalRush column.
There may, I say me, be a bonus Sunday edition of the column but needing to firm a few things up before I confirm.
Best of luck everybody and speak soon
Jimmy
Stats to date are:
Over 0.5 goals 99-2
Over 1.5 goals 89-12
Over 2.5 goals 62-39
Over 3.5 goals 37-64
Yes on BTTS 61-40
Home wins 50 Draws 17 Away wins 34
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg @ 5/6 German Bundesliga, Friday 730pm UK Kick Off Time
For the first game this weekend we head off to one of our favourite haunts, the Bundesliga. This game looks primed to add to the season long league average of 2.79 goals as both teams have seen plenty of goals in their games so far this season. Ironically the 0-0 draw between them back in September has probably helped us gain a tidy price. Prior to that goalless draw Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals had cashed in four straight meetings. Recent league outings for both sides have seen them struggle to keep it clean defensively. Frankfurt have conceded in all but one home game so far this season and their opposition have scored twenty goals in Frankfurt's last nine league games. Hamburg have been no tidier at the back as Yes on BTTS has gone 10-1 in their last eleven games so it's hard to put a case forward for either team to keep a clean sheet. As its hard, I won't bother! Give me over 2.5 goals here to get us off to a cracking start to the weekend.
Antalyaspor v Rizespor @ 20/23 Turkish Super Lig, Saturday 2pm UK Kick Off Time
The Turkish Super Lig has been quite good to us so far this season as this league which is not always considered to be a flowing and open one has seen plenty of goals. The average goals per game currently sits at 2.7 and I really like this game to get us off to a good start this Saturday. When the sides met back in September it was Rizespor who ran out 5-1 winners in a result that belies the fact that they lie just one place above, thirteenth, Antalyaspor. It is a small sample size but all three meetings of the sides since October 2013 have all seen Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals bets cash. Antalyaspor have kept just one clean sheet in thirteen home games whilst Rizespor have seen each of their last five league matches cash Yes on BTTS tickets. Let's take some of the over in what should be an open and entertaining game.
Vitoria Setubal v Nacional @ 23/20 Portugese Primeira Liga, Saturday 6pm UK Kick Off Time
Having ran my complicated #GoalRush algorithm or alternatively sat there working my games out with pen and paper (you decide which I do) I was amazed to see this priced odds against. There have been at least two goals scored in thirteen of the last fourteen head to head meetings of the sides. Setubal home games have gone 7-4 to over 2.5 goals this season and Nacional have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last ten league outings. On that basis we may not need the away side to score to cash an over 2.5 bet. Fear not though as the leaky Setubal backline has not kept a clean sheet I any of their last ten league matches. At this juicy market price of odds against let's take a nice chunk of the overs for our final bet for the Saturday #GoalRush column.
There may, I say me, be a bonus Sunday edition of the column but needing to firm a few things up before I confirm.
Best of luck everybody and speak soon
Jimmy
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)