Goal Rush Saturday

Morning Team Goals

I know most of you only care about the selections that I put forward but I do like to ramble on and explain in more detail about this project. For some of you I am sure this will help you with your own ideas moving forward.

It's been a very successful season so far in terms of highlighting games that are likely to be over 2.5 goals (my initial desire) and Yes on BTTS. I know a lot of you enjoy playing the over 0.5 and 1.5 goal markets via accumulators so thought I'd lay down the stats on those as well. The bets we typically go for on the over 2.5 goals are priced around the 1.7-1.9 (8/11 & 10/11) range. This mean the over 0.5 and 1.5 price are typically lower than you'd usually expect, within the 1.05-1.07 and 1.22-1.27 range.So in view of those lower prices I am not convinced that over the long term playing singles on those two markets would prove that profitable. At present they would but I think we need longer term analysis before any definitive conclusions are drawn.

The full stats are highlighted below:

Over 0.5 goals 36-0
Over 1.5 goals 31-5
Over 2.5 goals 25-11
Over 3.5 goals 14-22
BTTS 26-10 to Yes
19 home wins, 5 draws and 12 away wins

I have had a few emails and tweets asking how I am selecting these games. The simple answer is that I run all games through a test to assess their credentials to be considered as a potential #GoalRush game. I do have a criteria that needs to be met and then the games that meet that are then assessed in greater detail. At present that secondary check does not have any criteria it is more a case of me using my analytical skills and judgement. I then put forward my selections to you and as I know people's bankrolls are not limitless I aim to provide you with a maximum of four/five selections on any one day.

For the record, this Saturday there were thirty one games across Europe and other major world leagues that hit the initial criteria. Some are eliminated on price and others after the secondary checks flag up issues. Why am I eliminating games on price? Well if all games hit a criteria why are we backing games at 1/2 that have the same characteristics of games priced at 8/11. That is quite a bit of extra value and also losing bets, which we will undoubtedly have, hit our ROI far less at a price of 8/11 than a loser at 1/2 does. From this week onwards I will also detail the best current available market price.

Anyway, less of the rambling and let's go on to the only bit that most of you care about, the selections!


Crewe v Gillingham @ 8/11 , English League One 3pm kick off UK time
At least two goals in all of the eight league meetings of the sides since November 2010. Overs has hit at a rate of 6-2. Twenty goals in Crewe's six home games and sixteen in Gillingham's six away games suggests goals will be on offer here too. Twenty five goals have flown in when Gillingham take on lower half opposition in seven games but given their high flying start its pleasing that they've conceded nine of them. Overs looks a great shout here.

Millwall v Swindon @ 4/5 , English League One 3pm kick off UK time
There have been seventeen total goals in Millwall's five home games so far this campaign. Swindon on the road have seen nineteen total goals in six games. They have played ten total games against similar bottom half opponents and a total of thirty three goals have been scored. Millwall have not kept a clean sheet at home this season and in only one of those five games have they conceded just once. Another solid play in a division that always looks to offer some good value in these bets.

Standard Liege v Westerloo @ 7/11 , Belgium Pro League 5pm kick off UK time
A real bottom of the table match here as 15th placed Standard Liege take on 16th placed Westerloo. Both meetings saw Yes on BTTS land last season as the matches finished 1-1 and 2-2. Their twenty total games this season have seen sixty five total goals. Goals in the Belgian Pro League are averaging 2.74 goals per game so I'm happy to take the overs here as neither team can defend.

FC Utrecht v Roda JC @ 8/13 , Netherlands Eridivisie 745pm kick off UK time
When these sides have met in Utrecht the over 2.5 goals has gone 7-1 since January 2008 with the other match seeing two goals and a Yes on BTTS in a 1-1 draw. Eridivisie football is traditionally open with the league currently averaging 2.83 goals per game and the over 1.5 goals hitting at a rate of 83%. Given the history of goals between these two teams I love the over 2.5 goals.


Well there we have it, four games for you this weekend. Let's look to go at least 3-1 and keep the train rolling down the tracks.


All the best of British luck in your betting this weekend and speak soon.

Jimmy