I acknowledge that bookmakers have to react to what they see and the public perception of teams but after just eight games I see a big error made by them. I also see an under reaction to a recent change of management at a Premiership club.
One of the best bets that I have found for a while is one that can be made against Watford. The Hornets are 5/1 with Coral for relegation and to me that is a huge price. Weren't they odds on for the drop eight games ago? Watford could not have had a better start to the season as they have lost just two of their eight fixtures. Their 2-4-2 record shows them to be a side with great resilience and one that is difficult to beat. Those are admirable qualities for any team to possess but are they always the ones that prevent teams from being relegated? Delving deeper into the stats and the fixture compilers have shown Watford a kind hand early in the season. Unlike Leicester who have gained five extra points from a similarly comfortable start to the season Watford may rue these early season missed opportunities. Their home form is concerning and when I say their form it is more their lack of goal scoring as they have netted just once in four games at Vicarage Road. Admittedly those games have been against established Premiership teams in the shape of Crystal Palace, Southampton, Swansea and West Bromwich Albion. However, this means they are yet to welcome the bigger names from the league to Vicarage Road and I have no faith they can find the net against the Premierships elite. So to recap Watford have had a great start to the season but obtained just ten points from eight games! That kind of points return from those games should mean they are embroiled in the relegation battle all season. At the market price of 5/1 I do not see them giving you at least a great run for your money as even if they do stay up I do not envisage them being safe until the very end of the season.
The big talking point in the Premiership this international break has been the two managerial changes that have taken place. As predicted by myself a few weeks Sam Allardyce has taken over at Sunderland. The big man has a proven track record in this league and I expect an instant impact from him in terms of improved performances on the pitch. He also has the benefit of a very favourable run of fixtures coming up and I foresee them obtaining at least eight points and maybe a few more from their next six games. If they do that they should dramatically close the gap between themselves and the safety that is seventeenth place. They are a best priced 7/2 with Boyle Sports and Coral to stay up. That is a massive price as he is a genuine course and distance 'winner' and let's be honest Sunderland are not that worse than any of the other bottom feeders of the league. With more discipline and organisation, which Allardyce will bring to the Mackems, then they should be fine!
Over to Anfield and a new era dawns as Jurgen Klopp has been appointed the new manager following the sacking of Brendan Rodgers. In the short term I think this will bring a much needed lift to the atmosphere around Anfield. Klopp is a passionate man and his excitement for the game and for the success of his team is clear to see. Many criticised Rodgers for being too cold, clinical and almost devoid of any emotion on the touchline. This will never be said of Klopp! I say a lift in the short term as I sense there is some significant work to be done at Anfield in terms of player personnel and these issues are heightened by a new manager coming in. Klopps early games are Spurs (away), Southampton (home), Chelsea (away), Crystal Palace (home) and Manchester City (away). That is a very tough five game opening stretch. How they perform in those opening five games will tell us a lot about how they may progress for the rest of the season. Given Rodgers' poor record as Liverpool boss in games against the big teams you have to think a haul of six or more points in those games would be viewed as a positive return. Klopp has had tremendous success at his former clubs, Mainz and Borussia Dortmund, but when the tide has turned he at times seemed powerless to right the ship. If those tough early games go against him and with no transfer window until the New Year how will his emotions cope? Long term I'm not sure whether to suggest the 25/1 from BetVictor of Liverpool finishing in the bottom half or the widely available 5/2 on them finishing in the top four. That is how uncertain I am on how successful the popular German will be. Playing on emotion alone lasts for only a few weeks in the Premiership so Klopp will need to show he has the tactical nous as well as the emotion needed to capture the hearts of the fans on The Kop. Whatever happens it will surely be a roller coaster ride for their supporters, both in the stands and in the betting markets.
So even without an EPL card there does appear to be some value out there if you are prepared to tie your funds up for the longer term. Whether you decide to take any of the 7/2 on Sunderland to succeed or the 5/1 on Watford to fail it is up to you.
Many thanks for taking the time to read this article and may all your bets this weekend be winning ones.
Speak tomorrow when I will be back with my NFL thoughts for a big NFL Sunday card.
All the best
Jimmy
No comments:
Post a Comment