NFL Week 14
Just four weeks of the regular season left folks. There are many games I like this week so will be having more bets than usual, just spreading the cash thinner across all of them. Good luck and next week we shall have a full round up of the season long divisional bets and under/over bets.
Washington @ Bears -3.5
Jay Gruden v John Fox and Kirk Cousins v Jay Cutler. I like the Bears in both of those match ups but then again I liked them in match ups over the 49ers last Sunday. The difference though is the number as this week they need to cover only three and half and not seven points. Washington on the road is a different proposition than them on home field so give me the Bears to bounce back in this spot. I'd consider taking them straight up though now this line has shifted slightly as this could be decided just by a field goal.
Falcons @ Panthers -8.5
It's happening people, the Carolina Panthers are going 16-0. Will the Falcons only get beaten by a touchdown or less here is the question. Dan Quinn has tried to make this Atlanta team more physical but here they face a battle hardened and history squalling chasing Panthers. Matt Ryan on the road is turning to Drew Brees on the road. Panthers or pass for me and I'm really tempted to take Carolina even giving up a point and a half over a touchdown.
Saints @ Buccaneers -4.5
Drew Brees will have to throw it around here as the Saints won't run the ball much against this Tampa Bay defense. Brees should have success though as the Buccs will sit off in their cover two defense for much of the game. I can't believe I am going to say this but even with a point line of 50.5 I will take some of the over.
Chargers @ Chiefs -10.5
This is a big number for a divisional game but despite their injuries the Chiefs continue to plug and play running backs. San Diego look a bit of a shambles and going into Arrowhead this Sunday with KC on a play off push it's unlikely to get any better for the Chargers. The Chiefs have been playing some tough defense of late so give me the home team to get the job done and then bleed the clock through their ground game. Under 45 points for me.
Lions @ Rams -3
This line opened a Pk and has been bet all the way to Detroit minus three. That said you may only need seven points from the Lions to cover this line! Teams are stacking up on Todd Gurley and forcing St Louis to beat them through the air. Foles/Keenum/InsertWhoever just cannot get it done. Detroit are on ten days rest after that heartbreaking loss against the Packers and I see them getting the job done here on the road. I also really like the Lions/Under 41 play.
Bills @ Eagles PK
There was some early money for the road team here as the line was bet down from Philly -2 to Buffalo -1 and I'm not sure why before shifting back to a Pk. This Eagles defense is not the worst IMHO and I am pretty sure they will be able to confine Tyrod Taylor to the pocket. There is the revenge factor here for LeSean McCoy after he was traded to Buffalo in the off season so I expect him to go big. Rex Ryan loves these revenge angles so any bets on McCoy to have success (yards and touchdowns) really appeal to me. The uncertainty over Chip Kelly and he fact that many of his Eagles may look longingly over the sidelines to the smiling McCoy make me stay away here.
Patriots @ Texans +3.5
Tom Brady is running out of people to throw to and at some point New England will shut down all of their talented players ahead of their play off run. Houston need this game but they won't move the ball on the ground so it'll all be on Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins. Bill Belichick knows Hoyer so well though from his time as Brady's back up so the Houston QB may not have the greatest day. Gronk has travelled but even if he does play is he just in there as a decoy and/or to block JJ Watt? I will take that extra half point with the home dog as I'm happy for Houston to lose by a field goal and still cash in a game that they are more than capable of winning straight up. Under 45.5 points really appeals here to me.
Colts @ Jaguars -2
A banged up Matt Hasselbeck may not throw many interceptions but I don't think he can keep up with the Jaguars' offense. If Hasselbeck does not make it then we may see the legendary 'Clipboard Jesus' Charlie Whitehurst. Jaguars for me as I'm pretty sure Blake Bortles and co will find a way to outscore the Colts.
Steelers @ Bengals -2.5
By traditional Vegas bookmaking standards this line means that Pittsburgh are the better team on a neutral field. Their records suggest otherwise but this is the Steelers time of year and they do match up well against Cincinnati. However the Bengals have already won in Pittsburgh this season. There has been an incredible amount of confidence oozing out of the Pittsburgh locker room of late. In fact it's been sheer cockiness for a team that aren't as of yet even in a play off berth. A game to avoid for me but my heart is wanting to take the Bengals to put these cocky Steelers in their place. I do lean slightly to the unders on what seems an inflated line of 50 points.
49ers @ Browns -1.5
Just like the Hokey Cokey Johnny Football is back after being in, out, in, out and shaking it all about! The 49ers showed last Sunday in Chicago that they fight hard and that they can hang around in games. It's a different matter though being a one point underdog this week to that of a full touchdown dog the week before. The Browns cannot stop the run and we know San Fran will stay committed to it themselves with journeyman Shaun Draugn. San Fran should be able to shut down Cleveland's below average ground game and put it all on the shoulders of Johnny Manziel. Because of that I will take the road dog and lean to the under 41 points.
Titans @ Jets -7
The Jets are on a play off push whilst Tennessee are coming off that crazy win against Jacksonville. Famous last words here but I don't see Gang Green slipping up here so will take them laying a touchdown on the handicap line. These are the games as a Jets backer that you fear Ryan Fitzpatrick will regress so I won't be laying any more than seven points.
Raiders @ Broncos -6.5
Oakland have to show in this game that this is the new Raiders and not the same old Raiders after that poor home loss to Kansas City last Sunday. A fourth quarter meltdown saw them lose to the Chiefs and see their play off dreams go up in smoke. Trust the Denver defense to get the win but I'm not sure I want to give up more than a touchdown but at minus six and a half this is a no brainer play.
Cowboys @ Packers -7
This number opened -5 before shooting to -8.5 and has now slipped back to Green Bay laying a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers has more escapability than Kirk Cousins and they've had an extra four days rest ahead of this one. Green Bay by double digits for me but I can't back them with my hard earned. They are just not playing like Green Bay!
Seahawks @ Ravens +11.5
I was happy to lay any number up to a full touchdown on the Hawks as they are rolling. The line has escalated up into double digits so I could only look to add them to a three team teaser or a Moneyline parlay. The Ravens have played tough but their injuries have killed them and this should be an easy Hawks road win.
Giants @ Dolphins +2
Let's be honest Giant fans, it's Eli and OBJ against the Dolphins with maybe a bit of JPP sprinkled in. As crazy as it sounds even a loss here does not see the GMen out of the play off picture. Miami has no home field advantage and they have nothing to play for even in this prime time spot. GMen for me but this could be high scoring as Tannehill has begun to link up well with rookie Parker so the game score could easily go north of fifty.
Week 14 #SuperContest selections
Bears -3
Broncos -7
Jaguars Pk
Lions Pk
Seahawks -6.5
39-26 season to date
Enjoy the games folks!
All the best
Jimmy
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