NFL Wild Card Weekend

Let's begin this weeks column with a review of my season long bets, starting with the Divisional Title bets.

Buffalo Bills @ 13/2 finished third in their division with an 8-8 record. Had opportunities for a better record but in truth never close to challenging.

Baltimore Ravens & 13/8 also finished third as their season started like a train wreck and only got marginally better as their 5-11 season drew to its close.

Houston Texans @ 9/2 finally gave us a nice winner as they outfought Indianapolis for the crown to finish 9-7.

Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1 is the first of my five second place picks. You get nothing for coming second though and the Chiefs started off 1-5. To even have a chance of winning the title on the last day of the season was an achievement as they rattled off ten straight win. .

Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 saw me disappointed by the complete derailment of the Chip Kelly project as he paid the price for a 7-9 second placed season.

Green Bay Packers @ 4/9 paid the price for the Jordy Nelson injury as their offense stuttered and spluttered to a 10-6 season. Their failure on the final day to beat the Vikings for the crown makes me think their Super Bowl chances are minimal.

Atlanta Falcons @ 9/4 started off like a steam train before they ran out of gas. From a 5-0 start they crashed and burned to finish 8-8 but with Carolina beating everyone in sight they were never really in with a shot.

Seattle Seahawks @ 4/11 showed huge resilience to overcome a string of key injuries to battle through to the Play Offs. With Arizona playing at such an elite level that despite them finishing second they were never close.


Moving onto the Season Long under/over Win Total bets and thankfully we had much better success.  We went 4-1 but ironically it was my 'best bet' and only odds on shot that actually lost!

Washington Redskins @ 7/10 under 6.5 wins. Washington went 9-7 and took the NFL East crown as Jay Gruden rallied his beleaguered team to raise their level of performance. Washington certainly 'Liked That' season from quarterback Kirk Cousins but in this topsy turvy Division anything can happen next season.

Tennessee Titans @ 6/5 under 5.5 wins. There were signs of improvement under rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and at one point I was worried for this bet. However, they soon proved me correct as their performers fell off a cliff but moving forward there are green shoots of recovery to be seen in Nashville.

New Orleans Saints @ 6/5 under 8.5 wins. Never has a team had such a Jekyll & Hyde season like this Saints team. Much of it correlated with the inconsistent play from Drew Brees. A 7-9 season was a cover for performances that ranged from a 13-3 to a 3-13 team. Who knows what the future holds for that franchise!

Arizona Cardinals @ 11/8 over 8.5 wins. Our easiest cash of the season as the Bruce Arians revolution in Arizona went from strength to strength. They finished the regular season with a 13-3 record but they have sights on a much greater prize.

St Louis Rams @ 11/10 under 7.5 wins. Thankfully Mr '8-8' Jeff Fisher led his team to a 7-9 campaign. With a strong defense and a fantastic rookie running back it was the lack of a credible quarterback that hampered the Rams' opportunities for an even better season. Well that and Fisher!


A poor 1-7 Division title record was slightly softened by the 4-1 season win total performance. Incredibly it was Peyton Manning leading the Broncos, off of the bench I might add, to their win over San Diego that stopped a possible 2-6 record delivering stellar returns. Such are the fine margins!


Moving onto the Wild Card rounds, one of my favourite weekends of sport, and we have four stand alone games. I'm not sure how much betting opportunities there are but we will have a go at finding some value.


Chiefs @ Texans +3
The Chiefs are on an eleven game winning streak so surely you must be crazy to go against them in this spot. Maybe you are but I'm not afraid of being carted off to an asylum! Those eleven wins were obtained against just two sides with winning records and even one of those, against Landry Jones and Pittsburgh, was against a back up quarterback. The Texans will look to get this done on the back of their defense and with JJ Watt and co playing at an elite level I see the Chiefs struggling immensely here. Houston know this Saturday afternoon spot well of late and the home crowd will be pumped so give me the home dog straight up in this game.


Steelers @ Bengals +3
Another road favourite this Saturday as Pittsburgh head to Ohio to take on the AJ McCarron led Bengals. The point line has been set at forty six points here and that instantly attracted me to the under. Cincinnati have seemingly hit the ground running lately in games but then once their scripted plays for McCarron run out their offense stutters. The home team will need to run the ball and stay committed to the run as if this turns into a shoot out there is only one winner. I lean to the unders here but I can't trust this Steelers side laying points on the road.


Seahawks @ Vikings +5
Five weeks ago I cashed my biggest winning be of the season as Seattle demolished the Vikings in Minneapolis. That day I was lucky enough to get Seattle minus just two points as the Hawks demolished Mike Zimmer's team 38-7. This is different though and I'm not prepared to lay five points for any team on the road in a one off play off game. I am happy to add Seattle to any parlay bets but I'm stating clear of the handicap line. Minnesota may struggle to score points and even move the ball consistently so the under 40 points would be my lean in that market.


Packers @ Washington Pk
This is the day that the fans in Washington have been waiting for since RG3 went down in that play off game against Seattle a few years ago. The place will be bouncing, loud and inspiring for the home team. However, this league is all about match ups and Green Bay match up so well against the home team. It's been a great season for Washington but I'm happy to trust Rodgers here to get the job done. It'll probably be the only play off game they do win but take them here on the Pk line.


Best of luck this weekend folks and hopefully I will be back next week with a #GoalRush column.


Speak soon
Jimmy