Happy New Year Folks
Half Time Report (fuelled by Nescafé Azera)
Well folks we are now exactly half way through what can only be described as the most entertaining and unpredictable Premiership season in living memory. So what have we learned, what are the trends and where the heck can we make money in the next few weeks and months?
Now please feel free to ignore anything I say below as let's not forget before the season I was heard to say:
"I think Chelsea will probably grind it out and look the best option to take the title."
" Newcastle at 7/2 look a decent proposition to finish in the top half of the table."
"Leicester at 3/10 to finish in the bottom half looks a staggeringly good price. 30% interest here we come."
Those statements have all obviously been proved incorrect and I'm sure people will remind me about them for a long while on that kind community that is Twitter.
The key though to constant evolution and progression with your betting is not to stick to those original thoughts like a stubborn mule. Sometimes you will be correct to stick to your guns but only if you constantly reassess and re-evaluate your betting thoughts. I could write a column as long as my eighty five odd thousand word book at this half time stage but oh my lord that would bore you. Instead I have picked out one statistic or trend for each team so far this season that strikes a chord with me at this half way stage. Whether the pattern will continue moving forward is unknown but certainly they all have some relevance. Many of these should even come into our thought process for this weekends fixtures.
So in current league table order let's have a look.
Arsenal - Despite being top of the league they are only 6-1-3 against bottom half sides and have scored just fifteen goals in those ten matches.
Leicester City - The surprise packages have won eleven games so far this campaign but eight of those victories have been by just a single goal.
Manchester City - Have a huge top/bottom half split as City are 9-1-0 versus the bottom half and only 2-2-5 when playing fellow top half opponents.
Tottenham Hotspur - Best defensive record in the league this season and on just one occasion have they conceded more than once away from home.
Crystal Palace - Incredibly Palace have only conceded more than once in a game on just two occasions in the opening nineteen matches.
Manchester United - For a club who is apparently in turmoil their ten clean sheets in nineteen games is not a bad defensive return.
Liverpool - Always well backed punters need to be aware that they have scored more than once in just four of nineteen matches. Not good for a team who are regularly favoured by a full goal or even more.
West Ham United - The Hammers are 1-5-0 in their last six games and are unbeaten in the last seven at Upton Park.
Watford - When taking on opposition from the top seven Watford really struggle as they are only 1-0-6 in that spot and 7-5-0 against all other sides in the league.
Stoke City - After an indifferent start to the season Stoke have now kept eight clean sheets in their last twelve matches.
Everton - The Toffees are horrendous against the top half of the table as they are 0-5-5 in that spot.
Southampton - A record of 1-3-6 against the top half suggests their best work is done against the strugglers and that victory was only earned on Boxing Day v Arsenal.
West Bromwich Albion - Just nineteen goals in the nine matches the Baggies have played against fellow bottom half foes with an impressive five clean sheets in those games.
Chelsea - Failed to win two games in a row this season and the current three match unbeaten run is their best run of the current campaign.
Norwich City - The Canaries have kept just two clean sheets in nineteen games and one of those was against Aston Villa so does that even count?
Bournemouth - Overall this season under 2.5 goals is 10-9 in their games. However that is split into a 6-3 home and 4-6 away record.
Swansea City - Just eight total goals in Swansea's last six games and in those games they have failed to score more than once in a match.
Newcastle - The Magpies have failed to score in nine of their nineteen Premiership games this season and in their last three games they scored just one goal. Those games were against Aston Villa, Everton and West Brom whose defences have combined to concede a total of eight two goals this season.
Sunderland - Seven times this season Sunderland have conceded three or more goals in a single game. At the other end the Mackems have only scored nineteen goals themselves.
Aston Villa - After winning on opening day they have gone eighteen games without a win. They do however score more goals against the top half than against the bottom half, nine as opposed to just six against their relegation competition.
Well I hope that is of at least some use to you moving forward and I shall be back later with the first Goal Rush column of 2016.
All the best
Jimmy
No comments:
Post a Comment