Weekend Review

Weekend Review

Well the bookmakers will have very full satchels this Monday morning after the weekends results in the Premiership. Chelsea and Liverpool both lost at home on Saturday at under 1/2 and many punters piled into Manchester United on Sunday to recoup their losses away to Swansea. At the final whistle at the Liberty Stadium on Sunday afternoon a Cheshire Cat smile came across the face of the bosses at the leading books. It was a bad weekend for punters who love the favourite and to be honest I didn't have the greatest of weekends in the EPL.

I liked Chelsea to cover the -1.5 and Liverpool to win straight up, although I couldn't lay one and half goals with them. The push saved me in the Man City/Watford game and Newcastle/Arsenal matches but we did limit losses with Swansea plus a quarter and the over cashing in the Sunday game.

What did we learn?
The decline at Chelsea could be real. It will be interesting to watch them in the first game after the international break and I certainly won't be backing them when they return to action at Goodison Park in a fortnight. Manchester United may not be he defensive grinding machine we thought they might might be. If Swansea had have, as I predicted they would, won the possession battle then I could accept the defeat. However, United had 64% of the ball but could not win the game. That's a startling statistic and more than startling, it's downright alarming! It's too early to say that LVG is in trouble but United fans can take slow and methodical, almost boring, build ups if victory comes at the end of the game. When it doesn't then pressure is piled on any manager at the worlds biggest club.


A 2-2 Goal Rush weekend sees parity for us and takes us to a 11-4 start on the over 2.5 goals. Next week we will have to see how deep into the Euro action we are prepared to go as the international break will see many leagues off for the weekend.

Stats Pack Review

Subscribers to the Stats Pack were richly rewarded this weekend with both of our best bets cashing. Plymouth overcame Newport 1-0 on home soil as my favoured match bet, even suggesting to back the win to nil, and Yes on BTTS landed easily in the Hartlepool/Carlisle game. Other successes included:
Accrington v Northampton - Yes on BTTS
Barnet v Cambridge - under 2.5 goals
Crawley v Wycombe - laid Wycombe
Dagenham v Stevenage - laid Stevenage
Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers - backed Orient over Even money
Morecambe v Notts County - Yes on BTTS
Mansfield v York - laid York

There were a couple of let downs though as Oxford did win at a heavy odds on price and I liked the draw in the Luton/Portmsouth game which finished 2-1 to the visitors.

I am not a fan of the international break as it screws with the rhythm and the form lines for the Premiership. Hey ho there is nothing I can do about it so I will get back to the grind of the Division Two Stats Pack and Goal Rush for you all ready for next weekend.


All the best
Jimmy

Sunday Goal Rush

Sunday Goal Rush

Goal Rush Sunday

A shortened Sunday column today due to travelling back to London. A combination of the Notting Hill Carnival, my NFL Draft tonight and working the day job tomorrow means a much shortened column today. Apologies folks!

Yesterday saw us go 1-1 which takes us to 10-3 overall for the over 2.5 goals. Normally a flat day would see a small loss due to the price ranges that we operate in between 1.7 and 1.9 but that nice little 6/5ish that we got in Poland saw a positive return.

Today we have a few late fixtures that fit the criteria and the deeper analysis. Not had chance to rattle on as usual about the games in terms of previews but I assure you that despite this the usual level of research has been undertaken. 

Two bets today and we go to Norway and Poland for two 5pm UK Time kick offs.

Start v FK Haugesund, Norwegian Tippeligaen

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Legia Warszawa, Polish Ekstraklasa

Both games look to be heavily trending towards over 2.5 goals so fingers crossed we can move to 12-3!

All the best

Jimmy

Saturday Column

Last weekend I was just a single goal away in the Leicester/Tottenham game from landing that completely ridiculous treble that my mate bullied me into researching. Ok, maybe not quite bullied but he did threaten to set his Mrs on me if I didn't come up with one. She is worse than a pitbull!

So how can I top that this week? Well we do have quite a few heavy favourites this weekend in the Premiership so maybe we can look at some form of First Goalscorer Lucky 15. If the whipping boys throw the towel in this weekend then this could be the easiest bet of the year. How does that sound?

Eden Hazard 5/1 for Chelsea at home to Crystal Palace
Well he hasn't quite hit the ground running this season but there were sparks last week that he is getting back to his best. He scored the only goal in this fixture last season and the arrival of Pedro should help open up even more space for the Belgian wizard.

David Silva 13/2 for Manchester City at home to Watford
I think I fancy David Silva and he is, in my opinion, by far the best player in the Premiership. With silky touches and Latin good looks he has cast a spell over me. He has the kind of skills that these numpties from Watford just won't be able to cope with.

Philippe Coutinho 11/2 for Liverpool at home to West Ham United
I think it's fair to say that Liverpool will have a lot of the ball in this game. The Hammers will look to defend their box so don't expect much space for Benteke. Instead turn to this little magic man as he scores all sorts of goals and if the box is packed he could just smash one in from twenty five yards.

Harry Kane 4/1 for Tottenham Hotspur at home to Everton
The last winning bet of this Lucky 15 will be cashed by the lad I am calling the 'New Alan Shearer'. Harry Kane relies on no one part of his game as he does everything excellently. At an early age he is almost the complete centre forward. He has started the season slowly compared to last year but he will become the complete centre forward in my eyes when he nets the opener here and sends us delirious!


A £1 winning Lucky 15 on that motley crews pays a return of £2,929.15 for all four winners with Paddy Power. However, I am sure Paddy fresh from his takeover/merger of Betfair will give you some kind of bonus should you be daft enough to pile on. Maybe a reduction in your commission charge..............yeah righto.

Be sensible as this bet is just for a bit of fun. God I hope it comes in as my mate probably won't back it as his Mrs won't let him watch the late game.


Good luck and all the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Saturday Thoughts

Goal Rush Week 5

Morning folks it's another Football Friday and you know what that means, it's the day that the column that is sweeping the world is published..........well ok maybe not the world but it seems a few of you like it.

Results so far are as below:

Over 1.5 goals 10-1
Over 2.5 goals 9-2
Eight home wins, one draw and two away wins
Goal Distribution 1,2,3,3,3,3,4,5,5,5 and 6

So which crazy part of the world are we off to this weekend in the search of goals..................


Zaglebie Lubin v Ruch Chorzow, Saturday 5pm kick off UK Time, Polish Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin welcome Ruch Chorzow to the Stadion Zaglebie this Saturday tea time with the opportunity to overtake the visitors in the league table should they win the game. The home side have had what we can call a symmetrical start to the season as they are 2-2-2 so far this campaign. Ruch lie two points ahead of their hosts as their 3-1-2 record sees them lie fifth in the table as they look to build on last seasons precarious fourteenth, of sixteen, placed finish. The home side won promotion last season following just one season in the second tier following demotion in 2013-14 as home boss Piotr Stokowiec took them back to the promised land at the first time of asking. Five of the last total six meetings of the two teams since September 2012 has seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals is 4-2 in those matches. Both sides have kept just one clean sheet so far this season and Ruch have themselves scored in every game. At an available market price of over Even money then I sense this is a good risk/reward bet given the strong trend I see here towards the over 2.5 goal bet cashing. Bettors who like the Asian lines may be able to take some cover if they can get a favourable price on any 2.25 goal lines that may be about.



Heerenveen v Zwolle, Saturday 645pm kick off UK Time, Netherlands Eredivisie

It may be early in the season but the Eredivisie has sprung into life with some excellent games so far this season. This weekend sees an interesting game for us goal lovers as eighth placed Heerenveen entertain third placed Zwolle at the Abe Lenstra Stadium. Last season the sides finished seventh and sixth respectively and both sides look to build on promising starts to the new campaign. In a division heavily dominated by the two powerhouses, PSV and Ajax, you have to concede that really only third place and below is really up for grabs. Both had good results last weekend as Zwolle beat FC Twente 2-1 at home whilst Heerenveen held PSV 1-1 on home soil. The last four total meetings of the sides in Eredivisie have seen at least three goals and each of the last three in Heerenveen have hit over 2.5 goals. Heerenveen have won all three of those matches and outscored the visitors 9-1 in the process. As the sides combined six games this season have seen 18 total goals then I see nothing here to suggest a reversal in the high scoring trends so happy to take a piece of the over 2.5 goals.


Good luck all and look out for my part tongue in cheek Saturday Column and also some possible Sunday Goal Rush action too..........


All the best
Jimmy

Weekend Review

Weekend Review

Another fantastic weekend has come and gone with many takeaways for us punters moving forward.

The EPL
My major thought this weekend is that the press don't half have to make a mountain out of a mole hill. All the talk when I woke up on Sunday morning is of Manchester United and their problems. Problems? Three clean sheets in three games and seven points out of nine. For a club who are still rebuilding that isn't a bad return in my book.  Yes they could do with some more firepower and assistance for Wayne Rooney in the attacking third of the field but a solid defensive base sometimes comes at the expense of attacking flair. If seven points from three games is a problem then I'm sure a lot of other clubs would like 'problems'. Until further notice though I'm keen to trend to the unders in their games and I just can't take them giving up more than half a goal on any handicap line. This weekend they travel to Swansea who will finish below them in the table but it is a game where United will more than likely not dominate possession as Swansea's style of play rarely allows the opposition to have more ball than they do. It will be a real test for them as they will need to be clinical with their finishing as I expect even fewer chances in front of goal for them in this game.

Chelsea grabbed a much needed win at West Brom as they scrapped their way to a 3-2 victory. That's the sort of win they needed, ugly but effective. I expect them to kick on from here and next week they welcome a buoyant Crystal Palace side. Chelsea's troubles plus Palace's good start to the campaign could lead to an inflated price for the home win. There are specific reasons why I think Chelsea could exploit Palace this upcoming weekend and I will explain more later in the week

Manchester City are in cruise mode and presently they look by far the best side in the Premiership. They are trading odds on now and my thoughts are that this early in the season that should be a silly price. However, their upcoming set of fixtures suggest that by the time they travel to Old Trafford on October 25th they could be as short as 1/2 for the title. Next weekend they host Watford and then it is Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h), Tottenham (a), Newcastle (h) and Bournemouth (h). I would never say that the title could be won by then as that is crazy talk but the fixture compilers have certainly handed them a good run of games. It may even be worth taking some of that 10/11 before tonight's game as if Arsenal do not win then they will already be five or six points behind City and desperately playing catch up.

　

Goal Rush

The Goal Rush column had mixed results at the weekend going 2-0 on Saturday and 1-1 on Sunday. Maybe I'm just expecting to win every game now as a 9-2 record ain't so bad at all is it!

Over 1.5 goals 10-1

Over 2.5 goals 9-2

Eight home wins, one draw and two away wins

Goal Distribution 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5 and 6

The column will be back Friday and Sunday morning so look out for the link when it's posted.


Stats Pack Review
Stats Pack subscribers had a decent weekend in Division Two. Notts County and Accrington obliged in the goals market with Yes on BTTS landing the favourite goal bet of the week. Luton were my tip for the best match bet of the week and after twenty minutes they were two up at Yeovil only to see the home side rally back and win 3-2.

Other highlights included:
Plymouth winning away at Northampton at 5/2, laying Cambridge at odds on against Crawley and the under 2.5 goals obliging in the Wycombe/Dagenham match where we warned punters not to back Wycombe at odds on. We were let down though by Exeter at home to York and two late goals in Bristol denying us the under 2.5 goal bet landing.

Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football sees a cracking game as Arsenal host Liverpool at The Emirates live on Sky Sports. At the current market price I do see some good value with siding with Liverpool +0.75 as I feel the away team will cause the Gunners plenty of defensive issues. Defending set pieces could be a real issue for Arsenal here as I see them vulnerable to the aerial threats posed by Benteke, Skrtel and Co. Petr Cech looked suspect at times last weekend at Crystal Palace and with better delivery from corners and wide areas in this game he will once again be put under the microscope. This new look Liverpool defence which is being given great midfield cover by Henderson and Milner should be disciplined enough to limit the home sides chances. Give me Liverpool on the handicap and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they nicked all three points!


Have a great week folks and if you have any questions about betting then please do not be shy and hit me up on my Twitter @ukbettingpro

All the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Sunday Extra

Goal Rush Week Four Sunday Extra

8-1 and the roll just keeps going! Moving on to today's games and we have an early start in Denmark and a later match in the MLS. 

Randers v Viborg - Denmark - Sunday 1230pm UK Time
Colin Todd, remember him folks, and his Randers side host Viborg at the AutoC Park this Sunday afternoon. The home side have had a solid start to the season and they are 2-1-1 going into this game. Their four games though have seen an incredible nineteen total goals as they have covered the over 2.5 goal line on their own in each of the matches. Viborg have only scored in two of their five games this season but as they've only kept one clean sheet this season they are unlikely to shut out Randers in this game! The last four league meetings of the sides have seen Yes on BTTS land so I'm
happy to risk the fact that we may need Viborg to score in the game for the over 2.5 goal bet to land. You never know though as the home side may continue that run of smashing the over themselves. Our usual price range for these Goal Rush bets tend to be between 1.7 and 1.9 so to get the opportunity to back a solid selection at over Even money cannot be ignored.


LA Galaxy v New York City, MLS Sunday 8pm UK Time
The live main MLS game on Sky Sports this weekend sees Steven Gerrard's Galaxy take on New York City at the StubHub Centre. The Galaxy were involved in mainly low scoring games early in the season as they went 12-5 to under 2.5 goals in their first seventeen games. Their last nine games though have all seen the over 2.5 goal bet cash. In six of those games LA have hit the over themselves and on home soil the Galaxy are a commanding 10-2-1. New York City played on Thursday night away in Columbus and drew two apiece whilst LA have had all week to prepare for this match. With the game being live on Sky Sports you may be able to get a much better market price as there should be lots of liquidity and the brave may hold off, hoping for no early goals, before placing their wager. 

Record so far

Over 1.5 goals 9-0

Over 2.5 goals 8-1

Seven home wins, one draw and one away win

Goal distribution 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5 and 5

Good luck with your bets today whatever you choose, the live games look very interesting matches. If this blog is not enough of me and you want to listen to me rattle on about the EPL then click the podcast link below with the legend that is Pete Nordsted.  Or click the link to my column for the main Vegas Man Todd Furhman. 

http://www.petenordsted.com/premier-league-betting-podcast-week-3/

Sports Forum - Todd's Take 

Jimmy

Soccer Saturday Nonsense Treble Bet

The Saturday EPL 10/1 Shot Column

One of my mates said this week "I tell you what you need to do pal, find me a 10/1 winner that'll make my Saturday night. Oh and can you limit it to the 3pm Premiership games as that's all the telly the Mrs will let me watch." So I looked at him and thought, can you find me any more criteria?!

Sometimes I am not sure what people expect of me.  If I could pull 10/1 bets out of a hat, at will, do you think I'd be sat writing this on this train at 530pm on a Friday evening? Of course not.  However, it did get me thinking that this task is something I should undertake as a bit of fun, as it is achievable, and what the heck I could write a column about it and bore you lot with it too!

At least the orders to stick to the 3pm kick off Premiership games will give you a bit of entertainment whilst you watch Soccer Saturday on Sky. Bearing in mind whilst all this is going on I will be getting sunburnt, as I always forget my sun cream, out in the cricket field. So, what bets have we got lined up for this clearly attainable but rarely achieved 10/1+ treble.

Let's start at the old Filbert Street which isn't even the new Filbert Street as it's the Walkers Crisps Stadium and Leicester v Tottenham Hotspur. These two sides couldn't contain each other last season as their three meetings, including one in the FA Cup, saw a total of thirteen goals scored. Leicester's two EPL games have seen nine goals and worryingly they have conceded three times to Sunderland and West Ham teams who do look anaemic in front of goal. Spurs are a carefree side though so although you can see them scoring can you really see them keeping a clean sheet? Me neither, so let's take some of the over 2.5 goals in this match.

Sunderland host Swansea at the Stadium of Light and the price of the away team is quite frankly ridiculous. The Swans have won just 16 of their total 58 EPL away games yet are giving up half a goal on the handicap to Sunderland, madness! These stats though do not factor in one important fact and that is the fact that Sunderland are garbage! I have nothing against garbage teams as their games are often the most profitable to bet in, either supporting or opposing them, but this early in the season I won't trust Sunderland to either win or lose the game. What I feel you can rely on is Swansea to dominate the battle for possession with Sunderland desperately tapping at their heels to try and win it back. The home team failed to score in eight of their nineteen home EPL games last season and scored two or times on four occasions. Logic follows then that in seven games they found the net once in a match so the 6/4 available on them to score one goal in this game is priced about right. Away from home I can't trust Swansea to keep a clean sheet but who would put any money on this shot shy home team scoring more than twice as they won't have the ball very much.

Suggesting I stick to the 3pm kick offs may have been a bad idea as for this last bet I have been scrabbling around and I was keen to put Harry Kane in as an anytime scorer. However, I bet nowhere will take that as it'll say it is a correlated bet to the over 2.5 goals bet in the same match. So we will head to Carrow Road where Norwich host Stoke with both sides looking to build on promising starts to the season. Norwich were unlucky to lose on opening day at home to Crystal Palace before that good win at Sunderland last Saturday. Stoke looked dead and buried last week at White Hart Lane as they trailed 2-0 well into the second half. The Potters fought back though to grab a point to register their only point of the season after that opening day 1-0 defeat at the hands of Liverpool. I sense both sides will see a point from this game as a decent return so I'm going to sit on the fence and suggest a draw.

Silly Saturday 3pm Treble
Sunderland to score exactly one goal @ 6/4
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Total goals over 2.5 goals @ 5/6
Norwich City v Stoke City Draw @ 9/4

£1 pays £14.90 with SkyBet


Hope he isn't planning a big night tonight relying on this lot to come in! Good luck folks as you'll probably need it.


All the best
Jimmy

Goal Rush Week Four

The Goal Rush Week Four

6-1 after three weekends is a great return so far but we shall not be getting carried away just yet!

Five home wins, an away win and a draw are the game results that we have seen in these games. Is there a pattern developing here that we can take advantage of? I am not sure as only time will tell. The last eighteen months of research from myself in this topic was centred only on establishing a certain criteria to asses for goal expectations, pinpointing huge swathes of games and then monitoring the success across all matches. The extra research I am undertaking now, to avoid supplying you with an avalanche of bets weekly, seems to be increasing the success rate...........so far!

Onward we go to Saturday's two selections and there will be more for Sunday.


Rapid Wien v Grodig, Austria Division One, Saturday 3pm UK Time
Table topping Rapid Vienna, as we know them, host Grodig in the Ernst Happel Stadion as they look to extend their lead at the top of the Austrian Bundesliga. The 'Green-Whites' have started the campaign strongly with four wins and a draw from their opening five games. They have scored at least twice in each of those games and they welcome a Grodig side whose games have seen plenty of goals this season. In fact every single one of their games has seen Yes on BTTS and between them the sides' games are comfortably averaging higher than the 3.44 goals per game in this league. The market price on the over 2.5 goals for this game is a little shorter than I'd normally like to take but we are looking for winners!


Columbus v Sporting Kansas, MLS, Sunday 1230pm UK Time
Both of these teams come into this game on the back of matches full of goals just seventy two hours previously. Four goals were seen in Columbus as they drew 2-2 with New York City whilst Kansas were humiliated on home soil 5-0 by San Jose. Kansas have scored at least once in each of the last nine meetings of the sides so will travel confident they can find the back of the home sides net. The Crew are 7-4-2 at home with 47 total goals in those thirteen games and overall this season they are 18-7 to the over 2.5goals in their fixtures. Kansas are 3-3-4 on the road with 29 total goalsbeing scored in those away trips. Let's hop on the over 2.5 bandwagon in this one and with the game being broadcast live on Sky Sports there should be some good liquidity about.

Record so far
Over 1.5 goals 7-0
Over 2.5 goals 6-1
Five home wins, one draw and one away win
Goal distribution 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5 and 5


Best of luck and I will be back with more Goal Rush thoughts for Sunday!

Jimmy

Weekend Review

Weekend Review

Morning all, well what another weekend full of surprises and shocks in the roller coaster that is the football season. I admire anyone who covers all leagues in one country or the top leagues in multiple countries as I just cannot keep up with the volume of games across all leagues. Hence I concentrate on just two major leagues, EPL and Division Two, and my Goal Rush work. So what are my thoughts this week?

Manchester City were backed heavily and consistently all week with serious cash and they delivered for the big money punters. The final scoreline was a comprehensive 3-0 home win but we can look back at that unjustly disallowed goal and wonder what may have been had that Ramires goal had stood and Chelsea levelled at 1-1. City are flying whilst Chelsea are under pressure, both on and off the field, as they head to The Hawthorns this weekend where they have struggled in recent years.

"They need time to gel." If I had a pound for every time I heard that about Man Utd over the last few weeks then I'd be a rich man. Sometimes teams are just who they look and perform like. I'm not sure that this United team, given their personnel, will ever be a team that really destroys teams. They look a grinding machine that squeezes the life out of their opposition and are happy to win low scoring games. Until I see otherwise I continue to like the unders in their matches.

My preview of Southampton's opening day trip to Newcastle centred around potential defensive concerns since the departure of Clyne this summer. That defence which has now lost two key components in the last two summers has conceded five goals in their first two games. This week they travel to a Watford side who have had a bright start to the season without gaining the full rewards for their performances. A game to really watch with interest as the days of trusting Southampton to get a clean sheet appear to be in the past.


The Division Two Stats Pack had a solid week. Our main match bet lost but the best goals bet of the weekend did deliver nicely as Yeovil and Bristol Rovers comfortably went under 2.5 goals. Highlights include the Yes on BTTS landing in the 4-4 draw between Carlisle and Cambridge, Northampton beating Exeter at home and both sides finding the net in the Plymouth/Portsmouth game. Disappointments include both York and Hartlepool finding the net in their match up and my pre season fancies Luton letting a two goal home lead slip with less than ten minutes to go to stop us from cashing the home win.

We have a full programme of Division Two action this Tuesday night but there is still plenty of time to sign up for the Stats Pack by clicking the link below:

http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-revamped-division-2-stats-pack.html?m=1


The Goal Rush, thanks to a late goal in our extra Sunday Special column, moved to 6-1. We continue to monitor the trends as those seven games have seen the home team go 5-1-1 and Yes BTTS is 5-2. Goal distribution is evenly spread with 2,2,3,3,4,5 and 5 goals.

Monday Night Football tonight sees Liverpool host Bournemouth. I'm wary of making a bet here as I cannot be sure as to how the away team will approach this fixture. They may come out all guns blazing and be positive but they may adopt a cautious approach, I just don't know. With Coutinho as my Fantasy Football captain I'm hoping its the former rather than the latter but it's a game I won't be betting on.

Have a great day and speak soon
Jimmy

Goal Rush Week Three – Special Sunday Edition

Goal Rush Week Three – Special Sunday Edition

Mjondalen v Haugesund - Norway 1 Sunday 5pm UK time
Second from bottom Mjondalen host mid table Haugesund in this Tippeligaen clash at the Isachsen Stadion. The home team who were promoted last season have struggled to keep up with their stronger rivals in the top level of Norwegian football. It was one apiece when the sides met back in June in Haugesund which was a decent away draw for the struggling Mjondalen side. Recently Haugesund have scored in their last five games and despite their lowly position the home team have scored in eleven straight games. Their last seven games has seen them score fifteen goals but only gain five points! BTTS has landed in the last nine games for the home side whilst Haugesund have scored in seven of their last eight games.  Mjondalen also played away in the NM Cupen against Rosenborg on Thursday night, which they lost 4-0, which I feel makes this game more susceptible to goals today.

My only concern is that the away side have won their last two away league fixtures to nil. This statistic does make me a little more cautious and drop the level of stakes I am looking to invest despite the game hitting my criteria and further analysis.



Current Goal Rush results
5-1 over 2.5 goals
4-2 Yes on BTTS
4 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw

Goal Distribution 2, 3, 3, 4, 5 and 5

Best of luck with your bets today and if you want to know my EPL thoughts today then please check out the podcast with Pete Nordsted and click on my column for the main Vegas man Todd Furhman

Premier League Betting Podcast: Week 2 - Pete Nordsted - Pete Nordsted 

Sports Forum - Todd's Take 

All the best

Jimmy

Watford v West Bromwich Albion

Watford v West Bromwich Albion, Vicarage Road 3pm UK time kick off

Watford host West Brom in the first home game of their season back amongst the big boys. On paper it looks an ideal opportunity for the Hornets to get their first EPL win for boss Quique Flores and the bookmakers certainly agree as they have priced them up as short as 13/10 for this fixture.

Last weekend Watford were impressive away to Everton as they gained a point in a 2-2 draw on Merseyside. Sometimes though what can be seen on paper as a good result can in fact be a missed opportunity and one that deflates a team rather than inspires them moving forward. Watford led twice in that campaign so to be pegged back and only take a point is disappointing. They will learn that in this league as a side struggling down the bottom of the table it's not every week you take the lead in a game against so called better opposition. To lead twice and not get the win is almost a cardinal sin!

On this weeks podcast with Pete Nordsted I spoke of how the manner of West Brom's Monday night loss may in fact help them, so let me explain further. If the Baggies had fought out a draw, a narrow loss or even a victory that may have shifted their players focus away from this game. West Brom were blown away by Manchester City and were lucky that the score line only read 0-3 at full time. This week the words of Tony Pulis will be listened to with far greater attention by his players as they will fear another poor showing may see considerable changes rung.

So how do we know that players will listen to the words of their manager this week? Since the beginning of the 2006-7 season when Tony Pulis took over at Stoke there have been forty nine games where a Pulis led team have started a sequence of league results with a loss by two or more goals.  They seem to have a great response as in the game directly following a two goal loss, to start a run of results, they have lost just twelve of the forty nine games. The three teams he as managed in that timespan have hardly been the worlds greatest as Stoke, Crystal Palace and West Brom are at best middle of the pack EPL sides. So that record of W22 D15 L12 shows that, however he does it, after a loss of two or more goals Pulis knows how to get a positive reaction from his sides.

With such a strong trend supporting a Pulis managed team at least avoiding defeat I am happy to back West Brom +0.25 and the braver amongst you will take the 14/5 on the away victory.

Good luck with your bets today!

All the best

Jimmy

Goal Rush Week Three

The Goal Rush Week Three

As I said in my weekly round up on Monday we have certainly not found the elusive 'Golden Egg' in this column. We will have losers and periods where our selections are not as successful as they have been of late so please be mindful of this with your staking. Having said that we are currently 4-0 this season so maybe we have found something? Only time will tell as four games is no real sample size to judge by so let's see where in the world we are off to this weekend in search of value...........

IF Brommapoj v Jankopings, Sweden Division Two 3pm UK time
The Bromma Boys from western Stockholm host table topping Jonkopings in a genuine David v Goliath top v bottom clash. Jankopings handed out a spanking when the sides met for the first time this season. However, the BB's did manage two goals in the 5-2 defeat so they will have confidence they can find the back of the league leaders' net. With the away side scoring in six straight away games and the home underdog scoring in six straight games, which you would think is rare for a team bottom of any table, goals look to be on the cards here. Give me the over 2.5 goals to land here.


New York RB v Toronto FC, MLS midnight Saturday UK time
Toronto make the relatively short journey, by MLS standards, down to the Big Apple to take on New York Red Bulls for this key game within the
Eastern Conference. The Red Bull Arena has hardly been flush with goals this season as there have been just twenty four goals in the ten games played there this season. Conversely forty nine goals have flown in during Toronto's thirteen away games and when the sides met last season both games saw four goals scored. In fact the sides have met twenty one times since June 2007 and there has been at least two goals in all but one of the games with over 2.5 goals going 12-9. With New York scoring in their last sixteen total games and Toronto matches hitting Yes on BTTS in seven straight total games I sense goals will be the order of the day. Hit that over 2.5 goals bet!

Current results
4-0 over 2.5 goals
3-1 Yes on BTTS
3 home wins, 1 away win and 0 draws
Goal Distribution 3, 4, 5 and 5

The fact there have been no draws is kind of interesting and one to monitor as the sample size grows. Logically though this does make some sense. We are looking to identify games where we expect to see three or more goals. So any successful over 2.5 goal bet has more chance of a side winning the match due to the likelihood of three or five goals being greater than that of four goals. Does that make sense?

Less of my ramblings, look out for my Saturday column which will be posted early on Saturday and enjoy tonight's Premiership game.

Weekend Review

Weekend Round Up

What a fantastic opening weekend of football we've had and although it is very early in the season there are many interesting pieces of information that we can take forward.

Premier League
Saturday - there were five evens or odds on shots and three didn't win and then we had Arsenal letting us down yesterday. Man City are also a hefty odds on shot so will they pull it back tonight or will the odds on teams go 2-5? Be careful punters!

Over 2.5 goals has gone 5-4 so far with just tonight's game to go.

There were five Prem games with goal lines set at a miserly 2.25 and they went 3-2 to the over. Interestingly the two that went under both saw just a solitary goal so although my thoughts about almost blindly backing overs did make a profit there was no safety blanket of a half loss.

Without going through each game individually there were three glaring points that stand out to me this weekend. We will not even talk about Arsenal without Alexis Sanchez starting as I intend to write an in depth column about betting Arsenal moving forward in the next few days.

Manchester United were effective and functional in their 1-0 home victory. By looking at them I'd be wary of backing over 2.5 goals in their games until we see some evidence that they are able to create numerous chances in a game. LVG appears to have them set up well but not set up to take teams apart.

Liverpool are another team who look very solid and I see them as another team where the volume of goals in their games may regress this campaign. The addition of James Milner gives them a big lift in that important central midfield area. He and Jordan Henderson will give excellent protection to their back four whilst allowing their forward players to create. Their creativity looks not as great as in recent years but with that extra defensive solidity it doesn't need to be to win games. Yesterday's performance from the Reds may become the standard this season for them.

Norwich didn't have the rub of the green in their home defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace so it'll be interesting to watch the price moves on them this week. They have opened up a best priced 5/2 to gain all three points away at Sunderland. Given the Black Cats first half horror show at Leicester last week I'm keen to look at supporting Norwich should they drift out much further.

Goal Rush
Winners in Hungary and in the USA sees us improve to 4-0 and in over 2.5 bets for the season. I am sure that we haven't find the secret to untold riches but presently we are ticking along nicely. The next column will be published on Friday morning.


Stats Pack - http://ukbettingpro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-revamped-division-2-stats-pack.html?m=1

Great week for the main bets as we pinpointed Leyton Orient as the best value team of the week.
No on BTTS at Wycombe v York also obliged as our favourite goals bet of the day.

Other successes included suggesting Portsmouth to win to nil as good value, laying Oxford at odds on at home to Crawley and keeping the 1-1 correct score on our side in the Accrington/Luton game.
Stevenage let us down by not scoring at home to Notts County and thus the Yes on BTTS not landing whilst Morecambe's slow start cost us at Hartlepool.
All in all though a very solid first weekend for the Stats Pack with more to come for this weekends set of games.

Monday Night Football
Tonight's Monday Night Football brings the first weekend of the season to a close and it may not be an easy ride for Manchester City at the Baggies. These are the sorts of games where they struggled last season and their inability to win them cost them dear. We will learn a lot about this new look City in these ninety minutes so I won't be looking to rush in and either support or oppose them at The Hawthorns tonight.

Best of luck and speak soon
Jimmy

Newcastle v Southampton

Newcastle United v Southampton, Sunday 130pm UK Time

The McLaren era begins on Tyneside this weekend as Steve McLaren takes over at the helm at Newcastle United for the 2015-16 season. I was there at Wembley that fateful night when he was dubbed the 'Wally with the Brolly' in the pouring London rain as England slipped out of the European Championship qualifying at the hands of Croatia back in 2007. It has been a long road back to the big time for the clearly talented coach and in his first game he hosts Ronald Koeman's Southampton side. 

The general feeling amongst many people I have spoken with is that the Saints will regress in Koeman's second season at St Mary's but I am not so sure. However, this is a tough opening game for Southampton so I'm genuinely surprised to see them priced up as slight favourites for this opening day trip to the north east. Much of the concern for the Saints can be attributed to them losing their last five games away from home last season. It was only their strong home form in the last third of the season that allowed them to finish in seventh position but many of those wins were achieved against the Premierships weaker teams. Newcastle also had a torrid end to the season as they picked up just four points in their last eleven games and it was only a final day 2-0 home win over West Ham that secured their EPL status for this campaign. I believe the only difference between many of those mid tier Premiership sides is the coaching and in game management and in both areas McLaren can help Newcastle improve. 

Despite me being surprised that the away team are priced up as favourites I not see any value in betting the home team until I see how they shape up under their new management. It is the goal markets that appeal to me as even though both sides struggled at the back end of last season all of both teams' last seven games saw at least two goals. Recent head to head meetings also support goals as the last six meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 4-2. I'm sure that Newcastle will look to try and play a more exciting and attractive brand of football under McLaren whilst I have some questions about Southampton defensively that I want answers to. Last summer they sold defensive rock Lovren to Liverpool and they coped very well in his absence as their strong defensive performances continued. This summer they offloaded England full back Clyne, also to Liverpool, and banked another hefty fee sent south from Merseyside. You cannot keep selling players from a successful unit and expect the performance of the group to remain as strong so I think the Saints may be more vulnerable defensively this season, especially whilst the reshaped backline gels. 

With a more expansive Newcastle team and a potentially weaker Saints back line I believe this will be an open and entertaining encounter.  I am very happy to take a slice of the over 2.25 goal line as my preferred bet in this match! 

Goal Rush Week 2

Well we got off to a great start last weekend with two wins from two in the MLS and the Virsliga. The where I hear you say!! The Virsliga is the Latvian Premier League and that is the whole purpose of this column. I'm looking to find good solid over 2.5 goal bets through structured research wherever there are in the world. Money is money whether it's won in the English Premiership, Serie A in Italy or in the Ekstraklasa in Poland! I have a specified criteria that must be met for any game to qualify for further, more deeper, analysis.
Interestingly, last weeks suggestions not only saw over 2.5 goals cash but also the Yes on BTTS land and two home wins as four and five goals were scored in the two games. We will not get it right every week but as long as you keep your stakes to comfortable levels these are always bets that can be enjoyed. Moving swiftly on to this weeks action and we visit another Eastern European country as well as returning the Land of the Free, which also seems to be the Land of the Goals!

MTK Budapest v Diosgyor - Hungary - Saturday 5pm UK Time

First this week we look to the OTP Bank Liga in Hungary where MTK Budapest host Diosgyor in the nations capital. The home team lie mid table after three games of the new season with a win, a draw and a loss from their first three games. MTK have scored in each game and the only game they kept a clean sheet was on opening day at home to Puskas. Diosgyor make the 180km journey west following two defeats and a victory from their first three games of the new season. All of their games so far this season have gone Yes on BTTS and hit the over 2.5 goals bet. Any concerns you may have about them scoring away from home are eased by the fact they scored away at table topping Ferencvaros in a 3-1 defeat. It is a small sample size this season but even at this early stage of the Hungarian season I am comfortable in favouring the over 2.5 goal line.

Colorado v Columbus - United States - Sunday 2pm UK Time

Mid table Columbus make the long journey to Colorado this weekend as they look to get back to winning ways after a very poor showing last time out in Florida when they lost 5-2 at Orlando City. Over 2.5 goals has gone 14-4 in Colombus' last eighteen MLS games and they have kept just two clean sheets on eleven road trips this campaign. The home side are struggling at the bottom end of the table but they have the third best defensive record in the MLS as they have conceded just 22 goals in 21 games this season. Recent games in the thin Coloradan air appear to be more open affairs as Yes on BTTS has cashed in each of the five games in their Commerce City home with sixteen total goals flying in. Prior to that their first six home games had seen just eleven total goals. The home team have found their shooting boots and the away team always seem to find a way to find the back of the net in their games.
　
Good luck, be sensible with your staking and live to fight another betting day!

Arsenal v Chelsea - Community Shield

The English season resumes this weekend with the gentle appetiser of the Community Shield before the real cut and thrust begins next weekend. If you think this will be a gentle run out in this disturb akin to those I remember from my childhood then think again. This game has been played at a high intensity for many a season and this year seems set to be no different. Premier League champions Chelsea play FA Cup winners Arsenal so that can mean only one thing, Arsene v Jose. 

For those who may think that this will be a gentle low scoring affair with both teams feeling their way into the new season then the stats don't back those thoughts up. The last eleven Community Shields have gone 8-3 to both over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS.  Do those historical trends in this match follow through to the individual meetings between the two sides? 

Not recently as under 2.5 goals has gone 4-1 in the last five games and Arsenal have managed just two goals in the last eight meetings of the sides.  When facing Mourinho's Chelsea it has been even harder work for Arsene Wenger. A 7-6-0 lifetime record for Jose against Arsenal makes the Blues worthy favourites as the Portuguese genius seems to have a canny knack of shutting the Gunners down.  Many teams try and adopt the Chelsea way of defending against Arsenal but few can successfully carry out that same game plan. Mourinho's men will allow minimal space in behind them and will patiently watch Arsenal pass the ball from side to side until they seize on any inaccurate pass to regain possession. 

The pre season schedules of both sides will make this a difficult game for betting purposes. Arsenal utilised their full squad last weekend when they managed to win The Emirates Cup on home soil. The Gunners looked impressive but in truth the opposition they faced was not up to much and it was concerning that ex Gooner Nicklas Bendtner caused them defensive issues. Chelsea have made the long Transatlantic flight having played Barcelona in Washington in the early hours of Wednesday morning UK time.  That game saw both Gary Cahill and Diego Costa pick up injuries that when they happened would make you think they would play no part in this meaningless game.  We do know though that Jose does love getting one over Wenger and he has confirmed that both are fit to play.  I'm not sure how true this is and given his injury history I'd be flabbergasted if we saw Costa take to the Wembley turf. 

From a betting perspective this is a game that throws up far more questions than it does answers. The trends in this unique competition suggest a carefree and open game with the potential for goals from both sides. When these two teams meet the historical trends point to Chelsea avoiding defeat and limiting Arsenal's goal scoring chances.  In view of that the only bet in this game I could consider is the 4/5 that is generally available for Chelsea to lift the trophy. I would keep your bets in other markets to fun sized stakes as risking any of your betting bankroll in this match is fraught with danger.