Saturday 15 August 2015

Watford v West Bromwich Albion

Watford v West Bromwich Albion, Vicarage Road 3pm UK time kick off

Watford host West Brom in the first home game of their season back amongst the big boys. On paper it looks an ideal opportunity for the Hornets to get their first EPL win for boss Quique Flores and the bookmakers certainly agree as they have priced them up as short as 13/10 for this fixture.

Last weekend Watford were impressive away to Everton as they gained a point in a 2-2 draw on Merseyside. Sometimes though what can be seen on paper as a good result can in fact be a missed opportunity and one that deflates a team rather than inspires them moving forward. Watford led twice in that campaign so to be pegged back and only take a point is disappointing. They will learn that in this league as a side struggling down the bottom of the table it's not every week you take the lead in a game against so called better opposition. To lead twice and not get the win is almost a cardinal sin!

On this weeks podcast with Pete Nordsted I spoke of how the manner of West Brom's Monday night loss may in fact help them, so let me explain further. If the Baggies had fought out a draw, a narrow loss or even a victory that may have shifted their players focus away from this game. West Brom were blown away by Manchester City and were lucky that the score line only read 0-3 at full time. This week the words of Tony Pulis will be listened to with far greater attention by his players as they will fear another poor showing may see considerable changes rung.

So how do we know that players will listen to the words of their manager this week? Since the beginning of the 2006-7 season when Tony Pulis took over at Stoke there have been forty nine games where a Pulis led team have started a sequence of league results with a loss by two or more goals.  They seem to have a great response as in the game directly following a two goal loss, to start a run of results, they have lost just twelve of the forty nine games. The three teams he as managed in that timespan have hardly been the worlds greatest as Stoke, Crystal Palace and West Brom are at best middle of the pack EPL sides. So that record of W22 D15 L12 shows that, however he does it, after a loss of two or more goals Pulis knows how to get a positive reaction from his sides.

With such a strong trend supporting a Pulis managed team at least avoiding defeat I am happy to back West Brom +0.25 and the braver amongst you will take the 14/5 on the away victory.

Good luck with your bets today!

All the best
Jimmy

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