Goal Rush Week Three

The Goal Rush Week Three

As I said in my weekly round up on Monday we have certainly not found the elusive 'Golden Egg' in this column. We will have losers and periods where our selections are not as successful as they have been of late so please be mindful of this with your staking. Having said that we are currently 4-0 this season so maybe we have found something? Only time will tell as four games is no real sample size to judge by so let's see where in the world we are off to this weekend in search of value...........

IF Brommapoj v Jankopings, Sweden Division Two 3pm UK time
The Bromma Boys from western Stockholm host table topping Jonkopings in a genuine David v Goliath top v bottom clash. Jankopings handed out a spanking when the sides met for the first time this season. However, the BB's did manage two goals in the 5-2 defeat so they will have confidence they can find the back of the league leaders' net. With the away side scoring in six straight away games and the home underdog scoring in six straight games, which you would think is rare for a team bottom of any table, goals look to be on the cards here. Give me the over 2.5 goals to land here.


New York RB v Toronto FC, MLS midnight Saturday UK time
Toronto make the relatively short journey, by MLS standards, down to the Big Apple to take on New York Red Bulls for this key game within the
Eastern Conference. The Red Bull Arena has hardly been flush with goals this season as there have been just twenty four goals in the ten games played there this season. Conversely forty nine goals have flown in during Toronto's thirteen away games and when the sides met last season both games saw four goals scored. In fact the sides have met twenty one times since June 2007 and there has been at least two goals in all but one of the games with over 2.5 goals going 12-9. With New York scoring in their last sixteen total games and Toronto matches hitting Yes on BTTS in seven straight total games I sense goals will be the order of the day. Hit that over 2.5 goals bet!

Current results
4-0 over 2.5 goals
3-1 Yes on BTTS
3 home wins, 1 away win and 0 draws
Goal Distribution 3, 4, 5 and 5

The fact there have been no draws is kind of interesting and one to monitor as the sample size grows. Logically though this does make some sense. We are looking to identify games where we expect to see three or more goals. So any successful over 2.5 goal bet has more chance of a side winning the match due to the likelihood of three or five goals being greater than that of four goals. Does that make sense?

Less of my ramblings, look out for my Saturday column which will be posted early on Saturday and enjoy tonight's Premiership game.