NFL Sunday Week 10

NFL Sunday Week 10

Here we go then folks as we get down to the business end of the season and there are some big lines this week. Early in the season I would not have been opposed to blanket backing the biggish dogs but we are now entering the time of year when some teams have nothing to play for bar draft picks. So be aware, be very aware of the motivation for some teams, coaching staffs and organisations.

Lions @ Packers -10.5  In many ways I'm amazed this number is not higher, in the -13.5 to -14 range, so I sense there is a little bit of value on Green Bay to bounce back after two straight defeats. However, this is a divisional game and their defense is like a sieve. I'd rather side with the overs of 49 points than trust the Pack, given their recent issues, to cover a double digit spread. 

Dolphins @ Eagles -6  Wayne Rooney slapped a WWE character this past week so maybe Dan Campbell is up next for some rough treatment from Wazza. The honeymoon is over for Campbell and his horrific clock management last week just before half time cost the Fins dear at a critical moment in the game. Even laying just under a touchdown take the Eagles. 

Panthers @ Titans +4.5  Don't be fooled by the amount of points Tennessee scored last week as it was against the Saints' horrific defense. Carolina are 8-0 and should make it 9-0 here but do you want to lay more than a field goal on the points line? With the point line set at 44 points I'd rather look to the Titans defense to step up and the Panthers unit to be tough and go with a low scoring game. Unders. 

Saints @ Washington +1 Drew Brees favoured on the road, outside and on turf…..How ironic that a quarterback with a name of Brees struggles in the wind! Neither team can be trusted but the wrong team, New Orleans, is favoured in this one. Washington are fighting hard for coach Gruden but they are just not very good. That said with Rob Ryan still heading up the Saints' defense I'm happy to side with the home dog here. 

Jaguars @ Ravens -5   The Ravens have had seven of their eight games this season decided by six or less points and the other game they lost to the Cardinals by eight. Given those stats it's hard to lay the points with them entertaining a spunky looking Jags team who still believe they are in the play off race. There has been some ‘sharp’ money this week for Jacksonville which has driven this number down from the opening line. Give me the Jags and one reason why they can't win this straight up? 

Cowboys @ Buccaneers +1  Not quite sure how the Matt Cassell led Cowboys are a one point road favourite here as they have lost six straight. I took the over 42.5 points earlier this week as I sensed the points total would tick upwards and it has to 43.5 points. With famous Jameis under centre for the Buccs there always seems to be plenty of points so even after that upward movement I will take the overs to cash.

Bears @ Rams -7  Count these Bears out at your peril as coach John Fox has got them playing hard. They will need to be up for the fight against this Rams side who are accused of treading the boundaries of legality. At any level of on or over a touchdown I lean towards the Bears staying honest and Cutler being able to create far more than Nick Foles does through the air. Da Bears ATS. 

Browns @ Steelers -6  No Big Ben yet (surely he will not play) and this line is still up over a field goal? Something doesn't seem right here and whoever is under centre for Cleveland should be able to take advantage of the Steelers secondary. Another road dog will be taken by me here. 

Vikings @ Raiders -3  With doubts over Teddy Bridgewater you have to think this game will be placed by the Vikings in the hands of Adrian Peterson. Last week DeAngelo Williams ran all over the Raiders' defense has he accumulated 170 rushing yards. Their game plan of looking to shorten the game may bring in the unders on the point line. I trust Derek Carr far more than a knocked up Teddy B or whoever comes in from the bullpen for him. Also with expected difficult throwing conditions expected in the Bay Area I like the under 44 points.

Patriots @ Giants +7  This is a game to watch and enjoy but only bet on for fun stakes. This is the Patriots against the Giants and strange things happen when these teams meet. With Deon Lewis out I sense a huge night for Rob Gronkowski so check out any prop bets on his receiving yards and touchdown scoring. I like well over 100 yards and at least one, more than likely two, touchdowns from the big beast so take the over 83.5 yards on offer for his receiving yards. 9/4 on two touchdowns and the 9/1 on a hat-trick should be considered for players wanting to some bigger value on the only un-defendable player in the league.

Chiefs @ Broncos -4.5  Can the Broncos pull away from a half decent divisional rival? The answer is probably no and why the line has shifted from Denver -6 to Denver -4.5 points. This will be a very interesting game and one in which I am sure the betting action will be heavily siding with Denver. If this line ticks back up to the six/six and a half mark then I will definitely be having a piece of the underdog. 

Cardinals @ Seahawks -3  The game of the week sees Arizona trying to take that next step and all but finish off the Seahawks's divisional title hopes. They have won before in the home of the twelfth man so this trip will not daunt Bruce Arians' men. Going into this both teams are coming off of their bye so expect the well rested best efforts from both. I'd rather side with the unders here as these foes know each other so well. If you want to bet this Prime Time game then just take the Cardinals Straight Up as the value play as since the beginning of last season Arizona are 12-2 SU with Palmer under centre.

Texans @ Bengals -11  This is a big number, although it opened 13, but we have seen the Texans blown away twice already this season by sides able to cover a double digit number against them. I'm not quite sure why but I sense that Houston will stay close enough to have a shot at winning this game straight up. Call it a sixth sense, or just a thick sense, but I have that feeling........

 

SuperContest

Currently 27-18 this season and I do like this weeks selections and it was difficult narrowing it down as I did like about 8 games on the card this week. Let’s hope I picked the right five:

Buccaneers +1.5

Eagles -6.5

Jaguars +5.5

Tennessee +5.5

Washington Pk

 

Good luck folks with all your bets today.

Jimmy