Landing a big Saturday Acca can change your life forever. You need to look no further than the betting headlines that emerged at the beginning of this week. An international break weekend with no Premiership or Championship fixtures is usually a good one for the bookmakers. Punters used to trusting their hard earned with Arsenal, Chelsea (maybe not this year so much) and Manchester City were forced to rely on Bristol Rovers, Gillingham and Luton. I thought my luck might be in as in the ‘Last Man Standing’ competition I participate in saw just over twenty competitors out of well over a hundred standing going into this tough weekend. That £500 was surely heading my way as the lower leagues are my speciality whereas these novices were not bet savvy enough to navigate their ways around the vagaries of Division One and Two. Wrong!! Favourites cashed everywhere with two and three pound punters hitting up to 14 leg accumulators left, right and centre as British bookmakers lost a reported £15 million.
Many people say an Acca is a complete waste of time and in many ways from a completely professional opinion I would have to agree. However, the huge majority of people bet for enjoyment and an Acca is a fun way of risking a little bit of money with the dream of turning that small stake into something bigger. Perhaps landing a big Acca is part of a dream to enable that person to gain a bankroll with which to work more professionally with that would ordinarily be out of their reach. Anyway as my mother says “Most people’s Acca’s cost less than a packet of fags.” Wise words mother.
I’m not here to tell you who to bet and what kind of teams are best to bet on but just to remind you some of the basics. I call them my ‘Famous Five’. These basics may sound simplistic but some of the principles are easily forgotten when you’re in the betting shop or building your Acca on your mobile device.
- Don’t be greedy. I know that sounds silly when we are trying to make it big but any Acca of five, let alone seven or more, teams is usually doomed to fail!
- Do your game research. Just because it’s a multi leg bet do not get lazy and just randomly chuck teams in without further thought. Undertake the same level of analysis as you would for a one off TV game or any single bet you may be thinking of making.
- Draws can be fun! It is very rare that a draw will be priced at less than 2/1 so if you can pick out a game or two that ends all square your returns will increase dramatically.
- Live TV games should not be forgotten for many reasons. The ability to hedge out of positions (if you suddenly become risk averse), they tend to be priced the tightest so you get the best value (often if it is the last leg you can bet the other side on a competitors offer) and the underdog is often better value in a game they are being exposed to the nation on.
- Shop around. When you are putting multi legs into an Acca the difference in the potential winnings can be huge, running into thousands in big wins! Especially these days with access to the internet etc you are not tied to just the bookie within easy walking distance of your front door.
Bearing those Famous Five in mind I will this week try and land a five team Acca this weekend but first I have done a little bit of number and odds crunching for you this week. This has helped me in this project but is something that may help you shape your betting thoughts moving forward.
There have been 223 games in the Premier to Division Two this season where a team has been a best price of Even money or odds on and only 129 win of them (57%) saw a win from the odds on team. Given the fact that many of them were priced 8/11 or lower that suggests that piling your Acca full of them is not a great idea. I would maybe limit half of your Acca to odds on shots as they clearly can and do let you down on a regular basis.
Breakdown division by division
Premier League – P57 W35 D11 L11 61.4%
Championship – P47 W28 D14 L5 59.6%
Division One – P53 W26 D14 L13 49%
Division Two – P66 W40 D15 L11 60.6%
Due to my Stats Pack publication I cannot put any Division Two teams into this Acca this but if you like Division Two info you can subscribe via the below link:
To prove that I am not just all talk I will attempt to use the above principles and stats to try and hit it big this weekend. I am sticking to five selections to ensure I am not accused of breaching principle one!
Selections
Tottenham Hotspur at home to West Ham United @ 4/7
Swansea at home to AFC Bournemouth 20/21
Brighton away to Burnley @ 11/5
Southend at home to Blackpool @ 8/11
Crystal Palace v Sunderland Draw @ 10/3
£5 five team Acca pays around £360 with BetFred
I do not think that is too bad a return considering we have three of the five selections flying out the gate as odds on shots.
Please bet sensibly and obviously this bet is doomed to fail………hopefully it should be some fun.
Oh there is another rule I forgot to mention. Never put an early game in your Acca as it is always doomed to fail and make you want to reload before the 3pm kick offs!
I shall be back tomorrow with a bumper Goal Rush column as we look to bounce back after a couple of poor weeks.
All the best
Jimmy
No comments:
Post a Comment