NFL Thanksgiving Day Games

Thanksgiving Day Games

What are you going to be thankful for this Thursday? Whilst hundreds of millions of Americans spend Thursday pausing for thought and being thankful for what they have, us English are just left hanging around until we finish work before we can begin to join the celebrations. I think I am most thankful for Cecil Martin carving a big turkey and diving head, well usually leg, first into his prey as Sky Sports will once again deliver us three live games. Stuff the turkey though as we are just interested in the three games the NFL will serve up on our plate this Thursday night.

When teams turn around so quickly from Sunday to Thursday I am not overly keen on betting individual games with my hard earned cash and look to the player markets to find value. Don’t get me wrong these are still well researched bets but as I am relying on an individual to perform rather than a full roster of men I reduce my stakes accordingly. Here is a Thanksgiving Day trio of player bets to keep you warm this cold winter night.

 

Eagles @ Lions +1 and 46 points  Winter may be just around the corner but the temperature appears to be getting hotter and hotter in Philadelphia and it may soon be coming to a boil. The Eagles will be thankful for this road trip to get out of town after their humiliating defeat last Sunday on home soil at the hands of Tampa Bay. The NFC East is arguably the worst division in football and somehow Chip Kelly is manoeuvring his team down the table week by week and by the end of today could be bottom of the pile.  There is a common misconception doing the rounds that the Eagles are always dominated by the opposition in the time of possession and that is simply not the case. Only twice this season have the Eagles had the ball for less than twenty four minutes of the game. I know that is not ideal but it still equates to them having the ball at least 40% of the time in most of their games. Here they take on a Detroit side who have a defense who appear to have a new lease of life since recent coaching changes but cannot run the ball for love nor money. This could be a pretty ugly game and however the game flow pans out I see Matt Stafford having to air the ball out quite a bit for this shaky looking Lions offense to move the ball on a regular basis. His passing yards line is set at 264 ½ with Paddy Power and I like the over. If you include the game where he was benched against Arizona (strange I know but with the same offensive weapons his back up came in and threw for 191 yards) Detroit are 4-1 to the over on this line at home this season. The one game they failed to top that 264 ½ was at home to the Vikings where Stafford fell 8 yards short. In that game though the Lions only had the ball for 23:33 of the game and as discussed already Detroit are more than likely to win the time of possession battle. Back Matt Stafford over 264 ½ passing yards @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

 

Panthers @ Cowboys -1 and 45 ½ points   A 10-0 team travel to a 3-7 team and the undefeated team are receiving a point. That is not your usual standard Las Vegas linemaking there for you but it does show you the value of Tony Romo to this Dallas offense. Romo is 10-0 this season in terms of his value to the Cowboys as Dallas are 3-0 with Romo in the lineup and 0-7 without Romo. Those stats tell their own story and with the face of their franchise back America’s Team will feel confident that they have a chance to win this game and go into joint possession for the lead in this putrid division. Earlier in the season the Panthers were accused of being a one dimensional team with minimal attack through the air following the season ending injury to their star wide out Kelvin Benjamin. It is true that their ground game is the real strength of the team with the powerful Jonathon Stewart, the hefty Mike Tolbert and the playmaker that is Cam Newton being a hard trio to stop. However, in recent weeks Newton has opened up the passing game and the emergence of rookie Devin Funchess has added an extra dimension to the Panthers offense. Funchess is a big bodied receiver almost tight end in physique but operating out of the wide receiver position and his improvement really gives Cam a whole new dimension in the passing game. Even with Romo back Dallas need to get back to that ground game that served them so well last season. Darren McFadden should have plenty of joy here against a Panthers run defense who in my opinion is a below average unit especially as they will not be able to load the box due to the threat of Dez Bryant. Carolina may only be giving up an average of 94 ½ yards per game on the ground but if you think they are a 10-0 team then they have been in the lead a lot this season with the opposition throwing the ball playing catch up! Suddenly those 94 ½ yards per game looks a much bigger number than it really is and I sense Dallas will be in this game all through the contest and will stay committed to their ground game. Back Darren McFadden over 70.5 rushing yards @ 20/23 with Coral.

 

Bears @ Packers -8 ½ and 44 ½ points  Lambeau Field will be a very emotional place for the late game as the Packers faithful retire the jersey of the legendary Brett Favre at half time. Time seems to be a great healer in Wisconsin as it was not that many years ago that Favre was seen as a pariah following his move to Minnesota to play for the divisional rival Vikings.  The 2015 Packers seem to be back on track after they put the Vikings firmly back in their place on Sunday afternoon and they welcome a Bears side led by Jay Cutler who is 1-11 against the Packers in a Bears uniform. Aaron Rodgers showed glimpses of a return to form but most importantly for the Cheeseheads was the hard nosed running of Eddy Lacy. After being on the Inactive (not injured) list the previous Sunday the big fella had obviously been chained to the treadmill for the week. He looked sharper and hungrier this past Sunday, well maybe not hungrier as that is what him got benched in the first place and earned him the nickname of ‘Feast Mode’. The Bears are playing very tough under John Fox and I am sure that Green Bay will look to manage Rodgers through this game on a short week. Those factors point to another heavy workload for Big Eddy on a cold holiday night in Wisconsin if not for one thing. The shadow of Favre looms large over Rodgers both in his past by hindering his progress when he entered the league and also here tonight in this game, the biggest primetime spot of the year outside of the Superbowl. I am sure Rodgers would like to light this night up and remind everyone that the new sheriff in town is better than the old one so I am sure he will play well against a team who he normally picks apart. The weather is set to be very unfavourable though to the passing game so I will side with Feast Mode to tuck in and further get back to his best. Back Eddy Lacy over 63 ½ rushing yards @ 5/6 @ Paddy Power.

 

I would suggest backing those three fancies for 90% of your intended stake this Thursday and a £9 rolled up bet would return £56.55 to you. For the other 10% how about this tasty little morsel of a bet:

Calvin Johnson @ 15/2 at Coral/Paddy Power/Sky Bet for First Touchdown Scorer

Devin Funchess @ 7/1 at Ladbrokes for first Carolina Panther Touchdown Scorer

Aaron Rodgers @ 5/1 at William Hill for Any Time Green Bay Packers Touchdown Scorer

A £1 bet returns £408 to you. Obviously it won’t as it has no hope in hell of winning but it’s a bit of fun isn’t it!

 

Until Sunday my NFL peeps!

All the best and Happy Thanksgiving to all my American readers.

Jimmy