NFL Sunday Week 11

NFL Week 11

I am not quite sure if this week can repeat last weekend for the drama and excitement that this great game can generate. From the crazy ending in Baltimore, to Dez Bryant not fighting for a ball, Peyton Manning being benched, Tom Brady getting it done again in the last two minutes or an end to end game in Seattle it certainly was a Sunday to remember!

Even though there is no way that this week will recapture that magic but I am sure there will be another good slate of games with plenty of betting opportunities.

 

Cowboys @ Dolphins +1   Tony Romo is back but it is too late to save the Cowboys’ season as at 2-7 only the good Lord above can help them. Miracles rarely happen in the NFL but I do expect an instant lift for Dallas in this game. Miami somehow won last week in Philly but I am not sold on them at all. I lean to the Nations Team but not strongly enough to side with them on what is virtually a Pk line on the road.

Packers @ Vikings -1   Minnesota are doing just enough to win games but here they are favoured against an old foe who have had their number for years. Aaron Rodgers has been seeing ghosts of late and that’s a concern as he goes up against an in form Mike Zimmer led defense. For one last week I will support the Pack but I am about to fall off of their bandwagon if they do not deliver in this spot.

Colts @ Falcons -5.5  Both of these teams come into this game off of the back of a much needed bye week. A few weeks they both looked play off bound but the prospects for both teams now look more uncertain. This is a game that I want no part of from a betting perspective but ironically I am more inclined to back Indy with the steady hand of Matt Hasselbeck on the Colts’ tiller than the erratic hand of Andrew Luck. 

Jets @ Texans +3.5   Houston had that great Monday night win in Cincinnati and now they have the smell of a divisional win in their nostrils. The Jets are wobbling and they will have been glad of the extra days rest and prep time that they gained playing a week last Thursday. The line is jumping around and was at many places pulled in light of the injury to Brian Hoyer. With Yates lining up for the Texans I can't have them here but as the line has shifted to the Jets laying over a field goal I want no part of Gang Green. Even at a point line of just forty points I am drawn towards the under. 

Raiders @ Lions +1   The Lions played the Packers tough last weekend and Oakland will be without star pass rusher Aldon Smith who was banned by the NFL for a year earlier this week. I like plenty of points here as Derek Carr has shown the ability throughout the season to air the ball out. A weakened Oakland defense is unlikely to stop the Lions regularly enough in the dome to keep this game from going under the opening total of 48.5 points. That line has shifted north to fifty points and although it makes me less likely to back the over it is still the side I lean to. 

Broncos @ Bears +1   All the keys to this game lie with the Broncos defense as they played very well last Sunday despite a heavy defeat at home to Kansas City. Despite giving up almost half a dozen short fields they still only conceded 29 points to the Chiefs. Defensive reinforcements come in for them at Chicago Field and Brock Osweiler will be under instructions to hand the ball off early and often. Although I trust the Cutler/Fox duo far more than the brains trust of Kubiack/Osweiler I am wary. Da Bears for me but I don't feel great about it as this could be a game where Cutler's head explodes and throws two picks! 

Rams @ Ravens -2.5   Mr 8-8 Jeff Fisher takes his Rams team to Baltimore to take on the shambolic Ravens team in a game I really should just be passing on from a betting perspective. Wannabe tough guy Fisher was humiliated at home by the Bears last weekend and his way of changing this situation is to bench Nick Foles and bring in Case Keenum! That decision helped move the line from a Pick to Baltimore minus two and a half. Ravens for me here. I will take the home team against Keenum. 

Buccaneers @ Eagles -6   At first glance I was gagging to take the Buccaneers here getting a full touchdown against this Eagles team and the line shifted to Philly minus six. The Buccs have won two games on the road this season and lost another by a solitary point. However, those two wins were in the passing friendly domes in Atlanta and New Orleans and the game they lost by a single point in Washington was one inspired by over one hundred and eighty rushing yards. They won't rack up those stats here and I do not trust Jameis Winston outdoors, in the wind and the cold of a Philadelphia November day. Sanchez is IMHO an upgrade to Bradford so it's the Eagles or pass for me.

Washington @ Carolina -7   The reason I am taking Carolina is for one of the reasons I outline in the game above. If Tampa Bay can run for 180+ yards against Washington then what will this tougher and more physical Panthers team do to the Skins? Carolina will physically overpower Washington here and Kirk will not have a day like last week against the Saints. Carolina by double digits and I like the over 44.5 points here as I'm not convinced Washington stop the Panthers from hitting 30. 

Bengals @ Cardinals -5   These teams had vastly differing Prime Time performances last weekend which helped shift the opening line from -3 to -5 in favour of the Cardinals. One week of action is not enough IMHO for a two point line move in terms of forgetting everything Cincinnati have shown us this season. The match market is a pass but there are many elements here that makes me take the over 48 point line. Overs!

49ers @ Seahawks -13   Seattle need this game more than ever after last Sunday nights defeat on home soil at the hands of divisional rivals Arziona. Blaine Gabbert on the road in November in the loudest stadium in the world..........Hawks!

Chiefs @ Chargers +3   Kansas City have some kind of mojo going on now and with the Broncos staring straight at a quarterback controversy the Chiefs smell blood in the water. The Chiefs have the greater need but San Diego are coming off of a bye week healthier and into a home game following a disappointing home loss. This spot doesn't sit well for KC so I am avoiding this game like the proverbial plague!

Bills @ Patriots -7  Injuries are beginning to take their toll on New England and there are only a certain number of players you can plug and play reserves in for before the pack of cards falls down. No Edelman for Brady now following quick on the heels of the loss of Lewis. Rex Ryan should be able to scheme it up enough to keep within the number. Bills or Pass for me here. 

 

My SuperContest record is 30-20 going into Week 11 and I am delighted with that record as I seem to be hitting 3-2 almost every week now. If you contrast this to my record two years ago, the year I entered the Contest, and I was 20-30 at this same stage.  This could be an anomaly on a small sample size of bets but I honestly believe this is proof of an evolution in my approach to NFL betting. Anyway less of me bigging myself up and on to this weeks selections.......

Eagles -5.5

Packers +1

Panthers -7

Ravens -2

Seahawks -12.5

 

Good luck everybody with your bets today.

Jimmy