NFL Sunday Week 12

NFL Week 12

 

Buccaneers @ Colts -3  The Buccs are on the rise but you have to imagine at some point Jameis Winston has a shocker and throws away a game for the Buccs. That game will more than likely not be this one as the Colts do not have a fearsome defense. Both teams are still well in hit play off hunt and this game is too close to call for me so I will pass. 

 

Vikings @ Falcons -1.5 If Minnesota had handled business last Sunday I would think the Vikings would have been favoured for this trip to Georgia. The line opened Atlanta -2.5 but money has poured in on the Vikings before a little buyback has drive. The number back to minus one and a half. Atlanta are falling apart at the seams and with star running back Devonta Freeman suffering concussion last week the situation doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon. I will take Minnesota on the road here in the nice cosy confines of the Georgia Dome to get the job done. 

 

Dolphins @ Jets -3.5  Talking of teams falling apart at the seams and two teams in the same boat meet at MetLife Stadium. The loser of this game will in my opinion have their play off hopes vanquished and the last five weeks of the season for them will be played out in meaningless fashion. Another game too close to call but if I had to I would take the Fins plus that extra half point over the field goal on the handicap line. 

 

Raiders @ Titans +1  Tennessee are showing some signs of life on both sides of the ball and despite being 2-8 there is a surprising amount of positivity around the franchise. The flight board at Oakland Airport will state a destination of Nashville but it might as well be headed up Last Chance Saloon for the Raiders. At 4-6 the men from the Black Hole need this win to get back into the AFC Play Off race after three straight losses. Despite being sat on a Titans under season win total I will tentatively take the home dog in this spot to all but end the Raiders season. 

 

Chargers @ Jaguars -5  Don’t look now but the Jags are trying to muscle their way into the play off race and here they favoured by over a field goal which has been unheard of in recent years. If I had a pound for every time I saw Philip Rivers frantically clapping his hands to get a snap out before the play clock ran out I would be a rich man! San Diego are a shambles and I will take Jacksonville here purely on the amount of playmakers they have for Blake Bortles to target. Rivers is a great quarterback but his hands are tied but can you trust the Jags as a favourite of over a field goal? Jags or pass for me. 

 

Saints @ Texans -3  Usual ‘Saints on the road’ rules apply for me in this one. Brees is no longer the Brees of old and on home soil that is enough but not here against a JJ Watt led Texans defense. That Houston defensive unit has conceded just twenty nine points in their last three games and they will get after Brees in a loud play off type atmosphere. Brian Hoyer should be back under centre for the home team God only knows what DeAndre Hopkins will do to the horrific Saints defense. Houston by over a touchdown. 

 

Giants @ Washington +2.5 These old foes know each other so well and Washington know a win here will see them move into joint possession for the lead for the NFC East. Plenty of money this week for the GMen but we know that Washington are a different side at home than they are on the road. I will take New York but only straight up as this will be a closely fought encounter.

 

Rams @ Bengals -9 This point line looked very generous to the Rams when it opened at just seven points. Bettors soon twigged on that the three consecutive losses has seen the Rams' season fall apart and their quarterback situation is a shambles. Is Mr 8-8 going to go 4-12? Bengals by hefty double digits for me.

 

Bills @ Chiefs -5 Both teams come into this game with a 5-5 record and the opening point line of KC minus three and a half points suggested Vegas saw the Chiefs as the slightly better team. I see it the other way as I sense Buffalo have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Injuries to the Chiefs skill positions sees them line up players I have never even heard of! The line was driven up to KC minus six before a little buyback and I love the Bills in this spot. Shop around and you may get that six maybe even six and a half near kick off. 

 

Cardinals @ 49ers +10 Any team who are 3-7 are not very good and that is the record that San Francisco come into this game with. However, the Niners have fought really hard on home soil throughout the season and ten points is a lot of points to give any NFL team, especially in a divisional game. Last Sunday they showed great spirit in Seattle to keep coming back and trading punches with the Seahawks. With six games to go the Cardinals have a three game lead at the top of the NFC West. They may just want to get through games here on in and manage themselves for the play offs. Avoid on the handicap line. 

 

Steelers @ Seahawks -3.5  The much vaunted Seattle defense has given up 0 (Clausen), 10 (Stafford), 27 (Newton), 39 (Palmer) and 13 (Gabbert) points at home this season. Do you spot the pattern there? Good quarterbacks are putting up points against the Hawks in their own back yard and Ben Roethlisberger certainly has some weapons at his disposal. The match line opened Seattle -5.5 but has been bet down as some big bets have been placed on the Steelers. I prefer to take the over 45.5 points as this could be surprisingly high scoring. 

 

Patriots @ Broncos +3  This could be a very hard fought slugfest in the Mile High City on Sunday Night Football. Bettors frantically drove the line down from the opening point of -5.5 to just -3 on the Pats and further injuries to New England skill position players makes this a tough one to call. I will grab the points here as with Gronk double and triple teamed and a hefty pass rush coming after Tom Terrific they could come up short in the Mile High City.  

 

Ravens @ Browns -3  This is not the most attractive Monday Night Football we have ever seen and was made less entertaining by the justifiable demotion of Johnny Manziel. The line opened as a Pk but with Josh McCown stepping in under centre for Cleveland belief has grown in the betting market that the Browns will win. I see McCown a serviceable NFL quarterback and with Joe Flacco out for the season along with Forsett and Smith I don't see how Baltimore move the ball. 

 

 

Season Long Bets

Arizona Cardinals – Bet over 8 ½ wins and currently 8-2  Almost weighed in

New Orleans Saints – Bet under 8 ½ wins and currently 4-6  Starting to count the pennies

St Louis Rams – Bet under 7 ½ wins and currently 4-6  Still a little Gurley related nervousness

Tennessee Titans  - Bet under 5 ½ wins and currently 2-8  Only a lot of Music City Miracles will rob us!

Washington Redskins – Bet under 6 ½ wins and currently 4-6  In that division anything is possible

 

SuperContest

Last week I went 4-1 despite crossing off of my list Houston Texans +2 and swapping them for the Philadelphia Eagles -5 ½ in a move that stopped me from going 5-0. My record is 34-21 for the season and I would be tied for 11th in the contest if I had actually entered it. I am in the process of writing about this in more detail as two years ago when I was taking part in the Contest I was 23-30-2. That is a substantial improvement and I am hoping that I can put down in words some of the key lessons that I have realised over the past two years which has helped improve my gridiron gambling.

Bengals -8.5

Bills +6.5

Broncos +3

Browns -2.5

Texans -3

 

Best of luck everybody and enjoy the games!

Jimmy