Saturday Goal Rush

Goal Rush 14th November

Morning Team Goals.

A very disappointing 1-4 return from last weekends Goal Rush. Is this a blip or a regression to the mean? Only time will tell if our current hit rate of 61.4% will continue!

With the International break this weekend there are much fewer games for us to assess.

Updated stats are as below:
Over 0.5 goals 57-0
Over 1.5 goals 50-7
Over 2.5 goals 35-22
Over 3.5 goals 18-39
Yes on BTTS 36-21
Home wins 25 Draws 10 Away wins 22

Gillingham v Bury @ 13/15 English League Division One, 3pm UK Kick off
Both teams have seen goals go in when they take on fellow top half placed sides. Their twelve combined games in the spot have seen thirty eight goals, an average of over 3 goals per match with Yes on BTTS going 9-3 in those games. There is a high likelihood that both teams will net and encouragingly four of Bury’s games in this situation were on the road and they scored at least once on each trip. Fifty one goals in the sides’ sixteen home/away games so far this season suggests goals will be in order so I am happy to take the over 2.5 goals here.

Chojniczanka Chojnice v Pogon Siedke @ 11/10 Polish I Liga, 4pm UK Kick off
I would not advise putting this bet on via the phone if you have had a few strong shandys on Friday night as the home team is a bit of a mouth full! The sides met twice last season and on each occasion the game saw a total of five goals scored. Home wins were the order of the day as Choj (I will cut it short) won this fixture 5-0 and Siedke won the reverse fixture 4-1. Choj are poor at home and their 1-1-4 home record has been compiled thanks to conceding fifteen goals on home soil. Siedke are not watertight themselves though on the road as they have conceded twelve goals in their nine away games so far this campaign. The over 2.5 goals in this division is hitting at 47% so I can understand the reasons for the over being priced at 11/10. However, Yes on BTTS is 10-5 in those fifteen games in this spot this season for these teams. Given the history in these meetings, albeit a very small sample size, I will take the over 2.5 goals here at what I see as a juicy price of odds against.

Dessel Sport v Excelsior @ 9/10 Belgian Second Division, 630pm UK Kick off
The sides have met four times since September 2013 and each of those games have seen at least two goals with the over 2.5 goals going 3-1. Encouragingly Excelsior have scored six times in those two visits to Dessel and my only concern is the failure of Dessel to find the net in three of the four games. The time they did score though was at home in February 2014 when the sides drew two apiece. This division sees the over 2.5 goals bet hit at a rate of 54% with Yes on BTTS going 8-4 in the sides’ twelve games in this home/away spot this season and 17-9 overall. Dessel started the season slowly in front of goal but they have now scored in five straight games and at least twice in three of those five. With Excelsior scoring in all but one of their thirteen league games this season I will take the over 2.5 goals to cash here at what I feel is a decent price.

Here’s to at least a 2-1 GoalRush weekend and best of luck with all your other bets! I will definitely be back Sunday with my NFL Sunday thoughts.

Speak soon
Jimmy