NFL Sunday

Weekend NFL Week 8

I warn you now that I think this is the hardest NFL week I have ever seen to try and see value in. Best of luck.........

Lions @ Chiefs -3.5
Another game sent across the Atlantic to wow the English public in the great game of gridiron. I’m hoping that both coaches have double checked that their air fares are in fact return tickets! I am not quite sure what initially drove this line to KC minus five but even at this level I will take Detroit. The dog straight up also appeals.

Buccaneers @ Falcons -7
On paper this should be a shoot out as although the Falcons have had offensive issues of late the Buccaneers' defense is truly woeful. If Tampa Bay cannot get the ground game going this could be a long day for the Buccs. I make this line a shade over a touchdown but would probably rather just tease Atlanta down, or back them straight up, given their recent scoring issues.

Cardinals @ Browns +5.5
The Browns better hope that Josh McCown is fit enough to start this game as if Johnny Manziel is under centre this could get messy. My concerns for Arizona centre around the short working week and cross country travel. However, they are on their bye week after this and I am sure Coach Arians will be ensuring this will be a well prepared for work trip before their mid season break. Arizona and overs for me.

49ers @Rams -8
Colin Kaepernick had to run for his life last Thursday night at home to Seattle and he may face a similar threat here. At some point the 49ers become the value side as although St Louis are a strong physical football team they are not a team who can score a lot of points. Well unless the opposition gives them points, hhhhmmmmm. The point line is low, set at 39, but I still lean to the under.

Giants @ Saints -3
T.Y.Hilton cut a lonely figure in the Saints' secondary last Sunday so I dread to think what the Giants' receiving corps will do here. Well that's if Eli can get the ball to them! I like the dog and the over 49.5 points here as surely the Saints good run ends soon? If not my under on the 8.5 season long win total is in serious danger.

Vikings @ Bears +1
Chicago are a much better coached team this season but John Fox can only work with the pieces he has inherited. I'm quite sure that both teams move the ball reasonably efficiently in this game and with two reliable kickers I love the over 42.5 points.

Chargers @ Ravens -3.5
San Diego make the west to east coast trip following that awful home defeat at the hands of Oakland where they trailed 37-6 going into the fourth quarter. Baltimore are on a short week after that loss in Arizona on Monday Night Football where in truth they played ok. Although I quite like the over 51 points I'm concerned Baltimore may chew the clock up by relentlessly pounding the ball against a poor Chargers run defense.

Bengals @ Steelers -1
The line has shifted from the Bengals -2.5 to Pittsburgh -1 and this is purely on the news that Big Ben should return. That initial line does not make sense though as if Jones had have started surely it would have been Cincinnati by about six? That may be so but how mobile will he be against the strong Bengal defensive line? Any Steeler win will be placed in the hands of their ground game and although it is a great run game I will favour the more balanced offense. Road dog straight up for me.

Titans @ Texans -4
Two poor rosters coached by two poor head coaches meet here. Good luck if you want to bet this game. Having said that I nearly put Houston minus three as one of my SuperContest picks, yes it's that tricky of a week! The only reason I will be watching this game at all is that I will be cheering on DeAndre Hopkins’ receiving yards for my Fantasy Team.

Jets @ Raiders +3
Will the public get too pumped by what they saw from the Raiders last week? The look ahead line was New York minus three and following last Sunday’s results the Raiders were shown a little more respect as the number ticked down to one before reverting back to three. I once backed Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road in the Black Hole and it did not end well, those memories haunt me. Another pass for me I think.

Seahawks @ Cowboys +5
Word of warning, don't upset Greg Hardy as who knows what the lunatic may do. This could be a very chippy game and I am hoping that Beast Mode runs over Hardy over and over again. I fear the Cowboys pass rush against the week Seattle O line but any level under a touchdown I will take the road favourite ATS to get the job done.

Colts @ Panthers -6.5
It's tough to take the Colts after watching them play last Sunday against the Saints when they were annihilated on home turf. This line ticked up to a full touchdown but then slipped back as the seven was grabbed. Carolina rarely blow teams out and the Colts for all their faults do find a way to score points. Give me Indianapolis to keep it close and you never know they could take it straight up.

Packers @ Broncos +3
Can the Denver defense beat Aaron Rodgers? The line suggests they won't but I'm not so sure as without his main receivers Rodgers has not looked 'Rodgers' like. If the line moves to Denver plus three and a half then this is a no brainer bet. At the moment I am considering taking the home dog, on prime time, with the better defense and dare I say it presently a more reliable ground game!

So after last Sunday and Monday's first losing weekend in the SuperContest (just for fun) we now stand at 22-13. Still not bad I grant you that but I honestly fear the worst today! You have to pick five though so we will go with two good teams in Arizona and Seattle, one decent team in Atlanta, one solid well coached home dog in Chicago and one road dog who can score points in the Colts:

Arizona Cardinals -5
Atlanta Falcons -7
Chicago Bears +1.5
Indianapolis Colts +6.5
Seattle Seahawks -6


My season long under/over win total bets currently stand as below:

Tennessee Titans - under 5.5 wins and currently 1-5
Washington Redskins - under 6.5 wins and currently 3-4
New Orleans Saints - under 8.5 wins and currently 3-4
Arizona Cardinals - over 8.5 wins and currently 5-2
St Louis Rams - under 7.5 wins and currently 3-3

Season long I'm feeling very confident on the Arizona and Tennessee picks, fairly good on the Saints and Redskins but very uncomfortable on the Rams!


All the best today folks on what will be good day of action but one which from a betting perspective looks an absolute minefield.


Jimmy